Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
June 5, 2008
A Napkin Plan for Regime Change in Iran

The Senate Intelligence Committee Report on pre-war intelligence on Iraq, is finally out.

The first part is a (big pdfs)

"Report on Whether Public Statements Regarding Iraq by U.S. Government officials Were Substantiated by Intelligence Information".

At first glance there is nothing new in there. Bush lied, people died.

The second part is a

"Report on Intelligence Activities Relating to Iraq Conducted by the Policy Counterterrorism Evaluation Group and the Office of Special Plans Within the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy"

and it has some interesting and funny stuff. For your amusement I excerpt some bits below.

In 2004 Josh Marshall, Laura Rozen and Paul Glastris wrote on Iran-Contra II? –
Fresh scrutiny on a rogue Pentagon operation.

Their story was about secret meetings in 2002 in Rome and 2003 in Paris with Michael Ledeen, Department of Defense officials, the Iranian expat Ghorbanifar of Iran-Contra fame, some Iranian ‘officials’ and Italian intelligence officials. Ledeen was pushing schemes for regime change in Iran.

The new report describes whole affair in some detail. First the meeting in Rome and the attempts of Ledeen to get the U.S. government behind his plans.

Consider a bar, a napkin and $5 million for regime change as described on page 16 of the PDF. (Franklin and Rhode are DoD persons):

Mr. Franklin informed the Committee that during the trip in Rome Mr. Ghorbanifar pressed his own agenda for regime change in Iran. Mr. Franklin stated that late night during a discussion in a bar Mr. Ghorbanifar laid out his plan on a napkin. The plan involved simultaneous disruption of traffic at key intersections leading to Teheran that would create anxiety, work stoppages and other disruptive measures. Mr. Franklin recalled that Mr. Ghorbanifar asked for $5 million in seed money to facilitate the activity. He added that Mr. Ghorbanifar indicated that if the first action was successful additional money may be needed later but Mr. Franklin could not recall specific amounts being discussed beyond the $5 million. Mr. Rhode recalled Mr. Ghorbanifar discussing a plan to set up a network that would lead to the overthrow of the regime, but could not recall a specific dollar amount. Mr. Ledeen provided the Committee similar recollections, noting that Mr. Ghorbanifar offered a variety of different schemes for regime change in Iran dating to the time the two had first met. Mr. Ledeen added that he believed the U.S. Government should be supporting Iranians who want to overthrow the regime.

Other possible sources for money come up (page 16/17):

A synopsis of the discussion in Rome on Mr. Ghorbanifar’s plan, prepared by Mr. Rodman in mid-February 2002 with input from Mr. Franklin, stated that Mr. Ledeen and Mr. Ghorbanifar advised Mr. Franklin and Mr. Rhode of “the XXXXXXXXXXXX [foreign government] support for this information collection opportunity and financing by XXXXX [foreign] corporate enterprises midway through the interviews…..”

Who could that be? The Saudi government in person of Price Bandar offering black money pilfered from the Saudi-BAE weapons deal?

There follows some discussion between the State Department and the CIA, who both had been kept in the dark about the meeting, and the DoD. The CIA had marked Gharbanifar as not trustworthy for a long time.

Still Ledeen pushes on and, after intervention by Newt Gingrich, Rumsfeld’s office gives orders to the Defense Human Intelligence Service to meet with Ledeen (p22):

Information provided by the DoD in March 2008 indicates that after the interview of Mr. Ledeen the Defense HUMINT Service held discussions with several components of the CIA, XXXXXXXXXXXXX. During the meeting, the Defense HUMINT Service learned that Mr. “Ledeen had a history of approaching the USG [U.S. Government] contacts with various ‘schemes’ to gain USG interest and/or support for various issues normally related to Hizbollah, Iran, and/or Terrorism.” The Service also became aware that some of Mr. Ledeen’s contacts were considered “nefarious and unreliable.” The Defense HUMINT Service determined that no further contact with Mr. Ledeen was warranted or advisable.

Smart folks. Next Ledeen goes to the Vice President (p23):

Mr. Franklin advised the Committee that he became aware of Mr. Ledeens’ efforts to push for other elements of the U.S. Government to hear Mr. Ghorbanifar’s plan. He recalls being approached by an official from the Office of the Vice President in early 2002 requesting his opinion of Mr. Ghorbanifar’s plan and his judgments of its prospect for success. Mr. Franklin stated that he recommended it not be pursued.

After the ambassador in Italy protest against Ledeen’s plan for another meeting in Rome, Sec State Powell intervenes. Hadley finally gets upset that Ledeen continues to press for the scheme and the whole issue dies down.

Ledeen managed to get the top U.S. government, Hadley, Cheney, Rumsfeld, Powell and Tenet involved   to further a regime change plan for Iran scribbled one late night on a napkin in a bar in Rome.

Still he finds no takers for this attempt. But in 2003 he is back with a new plan. That will be stuff for a second post.

Comments

On one hand, the US government advocates “regime change” in Iran and is willing to invest a lot of financial and political capital into doing so.
On the other hand, they must be aware that every time they rattle sabres or make threatening gestures towards Iran, they strengthen the hand of the ruling religious conservatives.
I can assume that is a function of the Law of Conservation of Evil: now that Iraq has dropped out of the Axis of Evil, they have to make Iran out to be 50% more evil to balance it out

Posted by: ralphieboy | Jun 5 2008 17:59 utc | 1

Meanwhile, the propaganda blitz picks up speed:
Germany’s First Neo-Con Conference Pushes for War on Iran
Detailed report. I can’t believe I had never heard of this particular set of weirdos until now.

Posted by: Alamet | Jun 5 2008 23:21 utc | 2

Ret. Col. Sam Gardiner at Foreign Policy in Focus:
When Sanctions Are Not Sanctions

Posted by: Alamet | Jun 5 2008 23:23 utc | 3

based on the vidence that the prematurely terminated CIFA investigation was uncovering, its no wonder all their records were burned and the organization is now being terminated
sp

Posted by: Serving Patriot | Jun 6 2008 1:52 utc | 4

rockefeller: “It is my belief that the Bush Administration was fixated on Iraq, and used the 9/11 attacks by al Qa’ida as justification for overthrowing Saddam Hussein.”
no shit, sherlock. but why only your belief?
since the final track of the investigation is apparently finished now, why not try to get ahold of those pre-invasion DIA and halliburton documents on taking control of iraq’s oil fields, which was the primary reason for the whole shebang. not the fear fraud, as dilip hiro framed it in last year’s blood of the earth: the battle for the world’s vanishing oil resources:

In public, however, the Bush administration built its case on Iraq without any reference to its oil. The rationale for military action against Saddam Hussein’s government in Baghdad was that he was in league with Al Qaida and that he was busily producing weapons of mass destruction to be passed on to terrorists or deployed against the United States and/or its allies in the region.
What happened in concealed conclaves was another matter altogether.

Posted by: b real | Jun 6 2008 3:26 utc | 5

@SP #4
emptywheel on the passing of CIFA:

I’ve long suspected that CIFA was a clever plot, on the part of the Republicans, to outsource their Nixonian domestic spying, so as to hide it from oversight better than Nixon managed to. That suspicion only hardened when I learned that the CIFA database (including its records on the Quakers and Jesus’ General) went “poof” one day, remarkably enough at the same time as Carol Lam was closing in on the Mitch Wade subcontractor associated with CIFA, MZM (the same organization that had a contract with OVP to do something with emails).
… as luck would have it, on the very same day that the Pentagon released documents to the ACLU revealing that CIFA had abused National Security Letters to (among other things) collect information on a few Pentagon employees, the Pentagon has announced it is shutting down CIFA.
… The NYT presents advocates saying the closure is a great thing and others suggesting this is just a cover-up–that the domestic spying will get buried deep in the Pentgon where we’ll have to ferret it out again. Me, I’m in the latter category.

And a comment from Rayne at ew’s post:

…Oh, the memories this brings back.

”The office has clearly been so damaged that it is pretty clear to me that it could not function effectively,” Mr. Rumsfeld told reporters. ”So it is being closed down.” [c. 21-FEB-2002]

And this one:

“And then there was the office of strategic influence. […] I went down that next day and said fine, if you want to savage this thing fine I’ll give you the corpse. There’s the name. You can have the name, but I’m gonna keep doing every single thing that needs to be done and I have.” [c. 18-NOV-2002]

CIFA will probably die a nice, slow death as it reincarnates, just like OSI.

Posted by: small coke | Jun 6 2008 3:55 utc | 6

McClatchy: Did Iranian agents dupe Pentagon officials?

WASHINGTON — Defense Department counterintelligence investigators suspected that Iranian exiles who provided dubious intelligence on Iraq and Iran to a small group of Pentagon officials might have “been used as agents of a foreign intelligence service … to reach into and influence the highest levels of the U.S. government,” a Senate Intelligence Committee report said Thursday.
A top aide to then-secretary of defense Donald H. Rumsfeld, however, shut down the 2003 investigation into the Pentagon officials’ activities after only a month, and the Defense Department’s top brass never followed up on the investigators’ recommendation for a more thorough investigation, the Senate report said.
The revelation raises questions about whether Iran may have used a small cabal of officials in the Pentagon and in Vice President Dick Cheney’s office to feed bogus intelligence on Iraq and Iran to senior policymakers in the Bush administration who were eager to oust the Iraqi dictator.

Posted by: b | Jun 6 2008 6:50 utc | 7

1953 Coup d’Etat Gave Mid-East a First Taste of US Terror

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Jun 6 2008 9:06 utc | 8

U$,
it is scary how many Americans cannot begin to understand why iranians have such a rancorous attitude towards the USA. And that is why they buy Bush’s “they hate our freedoms” line.
25 years of brutal, totalitarian rule under the Shah pretty much killed any hope for a moderate, progressive regime in Iran: the only ones there with any sort of “street cred” were the extremists or the exiles, like the Ayatollah Khomeni.

Posted by: ralphieboy | Jun 6 2008 11:16 utc | 9

@b #7
McClatchey highlights Iran. Other countries also had designs on a more active role in Iraq’s future.
Buried in the McClatchey report:

The counterintelligence investigators recommended that U.S. officials attempt “to map Ghorbanifar’s relationship within Iranian elite social networks and, if possible, his contacts with other governments and/or intelligence organizations,” but that effort was never undertaken.

Posted by: small coke | Jun 8 2008 1:44 utc | 10

Laura Rozen: The Cocktail Napkin Plan for Regime Change in Iran

“The questions is: is information from Ledeen and Ghorbanifar still going to the vice president’s office, and is it affecting them?” a former senior CIA offiicial said. “It’s a logical assumption. That is what is known in the intelligence business as circular reporting: the same information, coming through the same source, peddled through different channels, slightly altered to make it look like it’s coming from multiple sources. And it’s one of the biggest dangers in the intelligence business. That is what Iraq Niger was all about.”

Posted by: b | Jun 8 2008 10:47 utc | 11

mother jones basically lifted your headline, b
on the senate intelligence committee rpt on pre-war intelligence, i’m wondering if they are ignoring the oil angle b/c a rockefeller is in charge…

Posted by: b real | Jun 9 2008 2:55 utc | 12