May 15, 2008 – President Bush Addresses Members of the Knesset

Some seem to believe that we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before.
… We
have an obligation to call this what it is — the false comfort of
appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history.

Bush left the Middle East and suddenly ‘some’ is ‘everyone’.

• May 19, 2008 – France Discloses ‘Contacts’ With Hamas
• May 19, 2008 – Is Israel breaking its own taboo on talks with Hamas?
• May 20, 2008 – Hamas delegation arrives in Egypt for Israel’s response …
• May 21, 2008 – Iran says ready to start ‘serious, targeted’ negotiations
• May 21, 2008 – German FM welcomes delivery of Iran’s diplomatic package
• May 21, 2008 – Iraqi troops enter Shiite enclave peacefully
• May 21, 2008 – Israel and Syria Say They Are Holding Peace Talks in Turkey
• May 21, 2008 – Hezbollah Wins Veto After Talks End Lebanon Stalemate
• May 21, 2008 – France hails Lebanon agreement

It seems like people in the Middle East all thought "Enough with this lunacy!"

Good.

Did something happen behind the scene? Some secret appeasement between Iran and the U.S.?

In U.S. politics ‘appeasement’ accusations are brought out against anyone who voices objections over fighting the next imperial war.

I find this rather comical as appeasement in almost all cases was and is the only smart policy available.

Appeasement, as practiced by the Brits since the mid 19th-hundred up to 1939, kept their empire safe. The policy changed after proof was in that a strategic enemy was unappeasable. That change did cost the British their empire.

When Chamberlain flew to Munich to sign an agreement with Hitler over repatriating the German parts of Czechoslovakia he had little alternatives.

At that point there was no possible way the British and the French could have successfully challenged Germany militarily. The case the German’s made was widely seen as just. The British empire was at that time also challenged by the Japanese in China and by Italy in the Mediterranean. The empire was already overstretched and its financial resources quite limited. The U.S. was isolationist. Soviet communism was feared, France was weak. After the horrors of WWI the British (and French) public were against another war. The punditry and the nobles up to the king were against it. The military was against it.

With the exception of a few earlybirds, notably Churchill, nobody thought that war was the right response to Germany’s demand.

So Chamberlain signed the contract, bought more peaceful time and lost nothing. A few month later Hitler broke the contract and send his troops into the rest of Czechoslovakia. Only then, in hindsight, was Chamberlain’s policy questioned, though I fail to find any presentation by his critics of realistic alternative ways he could have taken.

Hitler was not appeased because he was unappeasable. In that he was unique.

One should only fight wars one must fight and of these only those one can win. Everything else is simply stupid behaviour.

Cont. reading: Appeasement was (and is) Good Policy

Apparently for financial reasons, the new American century has prematurely ended.

In a symbolic act, the Project for the New American Century (PNAC), run by Bill Kristol and other neocons, has lost its internet presence.

When accessing www.newamericancentury.org one now gets redirected to the webhosters ‘account suspended’ page.

It says:

Please contact the billing/support department as soon as possible.

The website was hosted by btnaccess.com which is a subsidary of Hong Kong based PCCW Global.

PNAC is unable to pay for the new American century and the Chinese, after checking America’s  sinking  FICO scores, are obviously not willing to finance it with further credit lines.

Signs of the times …

h/t Jim Lobe

Open thread …

Please comment.

Yesterday I pointed to an Associated Press ‘IMPACT’ piece headlined Thousands killed by US’s Korean ally. It ran on the general Associated Press feed at Yahoo news. Like AP, I expected it to have some ‘impact’. Like AP, I was wrong.

The piece is the summary of a big investigative report that must have required quite some time and effort. There are a lot of new and so far unreported details in it.

In the early 1950s the South Korean dictatorial regime, under tutelage of the U.S., killed over 100,000 of its own people because they were suspected of being somewhat on the political left or otherwise not assumed loyal to the U.S. instantiated regime.

Just like German SS Einsatzgruppen killed ‘undesirable
people’ of their own blood in the 1940s – hundred-thousands of them –  the South Korean a few years later did just the same. Unlike the Germans, the South Koreans were under U.S. control and the ‘incidents’ happened in attendence of
U.S. officers.

Cont. reading: U.S. Supported Mass Killing – Can’t We Learn?

Radian Group reports $215.2M 1Q loss,
Philadelphia Inquirer, Mon, May 12, 2008
Radian Reports First Quarter Net Income of $195.6 Million,
MSN Money, May 12, 2008

One might scratch ones head about such contradictory headlines. But both are correct.

Radian Group Inc. RDN today reported net income of $195.6 million […] for the quarter ended March 31, 2008. Excluding the impact of net unrealized gains on derivatives and hybrid securities, the Company’s net operating loss was $215.2 million …

So Radian, a mortgage insurer with little other business, can report a
loss of $200 million while also reporting profits in the same range.
The trick in Wall Street language:

Cont. reading: Junk Accounting

A frontpage NYT piece on Lebanon is, as the Angry Arab finds, extremely inaccurate and sounds like written by the Hariri press office. Today’s WaPo wrap up of the last week in Lebanon is a bit better, but still misses many aspects of the actual conflict. For reliable analysis one should read Karim Makdisi at Counterpunch or this account of an anonymous German Lebanon correspondent at Syria Comment.

What the two mainstream pieces try is to shape the meme of sectarian Shia-Sunni conflict as the base of what happened. This is the same tale the U.S. (and the Saudis) have used in their divide and rule strategy in Iraq. In reality the split is much more a political than a religious one and with many more groups and interests involved than just Sunni and Shia.

The NYT puts it right into the headline: Hezbollah’s Actions Ignite Sectarian Fuse in Lebanon

After almost a week of street battles that left scores dead and threatened to push the country into open war, long-simmering Sunni-Shiite tensions here have sharply worsened, in an ominous echo of the civil conflict in Iraq.

The whole piece is filled with minor anecdotes that reinforce the point Sunni hate Shia, Shia hate Sunni and Hariri’s poor Sunnis, not really a militia in the blind view of the author, lost the fight.

From the WaPo piece:

Meanwhile, many Lebanese agree that the hardening of Sunni-Shiite
animosities — reminiscent of the Muslim-Christian fault line during the
country’s 15-year civil war — is likely to make any future conflict
here more violent.

In contrast to this ‘official’ view, the Syria Comment author notes:

The good news (so far): while the conflict does have a sectarian dimension – the fighters are mostly Shiites on one side, Sunnis and Druze on the other – it is still first and foremost a struggle between two irreconcilable political agendas, and has not (yet) turned sectarian, despite the best effort of pundits in the pay of the government and its Saudi masters (who control much of the Arab media) to discredit Hezbollah as hell-bent on turning Lebanon and the Levant into an Shiite-Arab foothold of a new Persian Empire.

Karim Makdisi writes:

The continued US, Israeli and Saudi obsession with Iran (which these days is being used interchangeably with “Shia’a” in a bid to fan sectarian flames) means that they will already be planning ahead for the next battle, probably in Lebanon and almost certainly in Gaza (since Hamas is placed in the “Iran” column), in order to halt the perceived Iranian gain in Lebanon last week.

Neither the NYT nor WaPo mention how much this conflict is instigated and controlled from the outside. They of course can not really do so because they are major willing tools used in this game.

It is not only the Saudi controlled Arab media that is pushing the sectarian meme. The U.S. mainstream media are marching in lockstep with them to create the bigger war, the big cauldron in the Middle East the neocons are longing for.

BANGKOK (Reuters) – An international aid agency has confirmed some cases of cholera in Myanmar’s cyclone-hit Irawaddy delta but the number was in line with normal levels in previous years, an aid official said on Friday.
…
"We don’t have an explosion of cholera. Thus far the rate of cholera is no greater than the background rate that we would be seeing in Myanmar during this season," [World Health Organization representative Maureen Birmingham] said.
Some cholera confirmed in cyclone-hit Myanmar

My 12 year old RC cars and Lego cranes co-enthusiast, Lukas, today told me that cholera was a big problem in Burma because of the recent storm and the criminal non-action of the government there. He had read such in the local right-wing fish-wrap this morning which had a headline to that regard.

I can’t blame him for getting the impression he had. But, according to the WHO, it was obviously wrong. So I explained to him that there are always some cholera cases in nearly every society and especially in hot and moist places with little technical hygiene facilities. Cholera is also relative easy to heal, I said. I then laid out that there are political reasons that drive such propaganda. That’s what he immediately got.

There are other scare stories around now of "dead bodies floating" in Myanmar and that these may cause epidemics. The second part is just as wrong as the cholera stories:

"There has never been a documented case of a post-natural disaster epidemic that could be traced to dead bodies," the WHO said in a statement.

What many get from the news on Myanmar are scare stories about a bad government and lots of people dying because of that government.

Not that I like the military dictatorship in Myanmar, but the people who recently died there were killed by a natural disaster. A storm that drove an unexpected high wave onto a low laying area. No Myanmar government of any form could have prevented that.

But the hypocrites are out in full force:

Cont. reading: Myanmar – Politics, Media Manipulation and Help

Here is a story on delusional addicts who believe they have leverage towards their drug dealers.

Democrats in the U.S. Senate have threatened to withhold military supplies from Saudi Arabia and its neighbors unless they pump more oil.
…
"We have a strategic partnership with the Saudis, but it seems to me a partnership works two ways," Sen. Byron L. Dorgan, D-N.D., chairman of the Democratic Policy Committee, said at a news conference Thursday. "The Saudis want to purchase sophisticated weapons from our country. … They should understand there are certain things we need from them as well."
US Dems threaten Saudis with arms cutoff, April 26, 2008

Cont. reading: The Delusional Addict

Yesterday Bush gave a speech in front of the Knesset that accused Obama of appeasement.

This was a sole U.S. political issue – the Knesset degraded itself to a rent-out high school stage.

The Rovian idea behind this is to move the Jewish votes, two thirds of which usually goes to Democrats, towards the Republican candidate.

But given that McCain lacks serious fund raising capacity, moving more zionist billionaires to cough up more money for McCain and the party, may have been the more important issue here.

Rove, a mass mailer by trade, always thinks in the frame of arranging statistical ‘blocks’ of ‘targets’. Rove is essentially trying to buy off, give in to, or appease a certain group of voters.

But these voters no longer have the demand he assumes and tries to appease. There are many  signs that the Jewish vote in the U.S. has moved beyond radical zionism.

His efforts have therefore some general utility in the monetary range. But I doubt the utility of such assumed appeasement in the electoral dimension.

Then again, Diebold may take care of that.

What’s your take on this?

Text of McCain’s Speech on First-Term Goals

So, what I want to do today is take a little time to describe what I would hope to have achieved at the end of my first term as President.
…
[1.947 words list of 200 or so somewhat chimerical things I hope to achieve]
…
Thank you

Your welcome Mr. McCain.

When I read through that, I found lots of aims one could argue about. But I found not a single word in there on how to achieve these aims.

Y’know, hope is not a plan.

What are the plans?

A request to readers:

I am looking for an example of a successful humanitarian intervention.

Successful in the sense that

• the sum of positive effects minus negative effects ended up greater than zero
• the sum effect would likely not have been achieved with other means

Humanitarian in the sense that

• there was a non-artificial humanitarian need
• there was no hidden political agenda

Intervention in the sense that

• military means were used (not necessarily active fighting)
• by one nation state (group) into another state
• against the wish of the target state authorities
• limited in time, i.e. didn’t end in occupation or permanent termination of the target state

Criticism of the above definition is welcome.

Is there any case that fits in completely?
Are there any cases that nearly fit in?

Says something about "unity of message" …

Some seem to believe that we should negotiate with the terrorists and radicals, as if some ingenious argument will persuade them they have been wrong all along. We have heard this foolish delusion before. As Nazi tanks crossed into Poland in 1939, an American senator declared: "Lord, if I could only have talked to Hitler, all this might have been avoided." We have an obligation to call this what it is — the false comfort of appeasement, which has been repeatedly discredited by history. (Applause.)
President Bush Addresses Members of the Knesset , May 15, 2008

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates called on Wednesday for more unofficial contacts with Iran, saying this might eventually open a pathway to more substantive dialogue between the governments.

…
"My own view, just my personal view, would be we ought to look for ways outside of government to open up the channels and get more of a flow of people back and forth," he said in a speech to the American Academy of Diplomacy, a group of retired U.S. diplomats.

Gates urges more nongovernment contacts with Iran, May 15, 2008

The Senator Bush quotes was William Borah, a Republican from Idaho.

A widely repeated Associated Press report yesterday claimed that a second cyclone is threatening Myanmar.

The report was false and likely based on U.S. military propaganda. It may have led to further death in Myanmar.

Here is what AP wrote:

A second cyclone was forming Wednesday near Myanmar, less than two weeks after it was devastated by a killer storm, the UN said.

The United Nations’ weather center is tracking a nascent tropical storm that is likely to become a cyclone, said Amanda Pitt, the spokeswoman of the world body’s humanitarian relief program, in Bangkok, Thailand.

"This is terrible," she told reporters, adding that it could further jeopardize the people who survived Cyclone Nargis on May 3 and the efforts to distribute aid for them.

The UN’s World Meteorological Center said on its Web site that "the potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is good."

The UN World Meterological Center (WMO) never gave a warning for a second cyclone because there was never one to expect.

The actual "warning" was given by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center of the U.S. Air Force and Navy in Hawaii to the Regional UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Bangkok. From there it went to press agencies and the media. The U.S. military center later downgraded the likelihood of a second cyclone in the Myanmar area to "poor."

Is cyclone prediction by the U.S. military so bad that it changes its judgement within hours from "good chance" to "poor chance" for another one?

Cont. reading: False Weather Warning by U.S. Military to Press Myanmar

In a column aptly titled Alice in Housing Land George Will goes through the looking glass.

He explain that there is no housing crisis and therefore legislative measures to help borrowers are not needed. To make his case, Will uses highly selective number and distorted quotes. He writes:

One symptom of the "crisis" is that housing prices have fallen. How far is unclear. Estimates range from 3 percent to 13 percent. Questions arise.

Do young couples struggling to purchase their first homes concur with the sudden consensus that the decline in prices is a national misfortune? The Economist reports: "Monthly payments on a typical house with a 30-year mortgage and 20 peris cent downpayment were 18.5 percent of the median family’s income in February, down from almost 26 percent at the peak — and close to the historical average."

If prices have only fallen 3-13%, how come the share of family income that is needed to pay for a house has decreased by 40% (from 26 to 18.5)?

Will does not explain that. But he points to the usually reliable Economist to support his  hacktacular non-crisis thesis. So let’s check. Here is what the Economist wrote about the percentages Will cites:

Cont. reading: George Will’s Misleading Quotes

A Democrat won yesterday’s vote for a House seat in Mississippi’s 1st district with 54% to 46%. An 8 points winning margin in a district where in 2004 62% voted for Bush, 37% for Kerry. This was the third Republican seat that went to a Democrat in a recent by-election.

With the economy worsening, there is no reasonable way the Democrats and their presidential candidate can lose the November elections. Any poll that gives McCain a chance to win over Obama is likely flawed. In November, the GOP will get trashed.

Still, the House Republicans hope a new slogan for their policies product will help.

The slogan was copied from a campaign for an antidepressant, Effexor. The slogan will not work because the product has not changed and people who have taken the medicine over the last years already noticed the side effects:

Headache, drowsiness, dizziness, nausea, weakness, dry mouth, constipation, loss of appetite, weight loss, blurred vision, tiredness, nervousness, trouble sleeping, sweating, or yawning may occur.
…
stomach/abdominal pain, chest pain, persistent cough, shortness of breath, bloody/black/tarry stools, vomit that looks like coffee grounds, easy bruising/bleeding, fast/irregular/pounding heartbeat, muscle weakness/cramps, yellowing eyes/skin, dark urine, seizures, unusual tiredness.

Fans on manliness, like Chris Matthews, have experienced a special one, "a painful or prolonged erection lasting 4 or more hours." As they did not see their doctor and never stopped to swallow the drug, as is reommended, they will now have to live with "permanent damage."

The U.S. people know it is high time to get rid of such medication. The race is thereby already over.

Still, the media will drive this on and make it look competitive because that is what sells their product.

But all international agents know this is over and now adjust their behavior accordingly. They rightly assume that U.S. policies will see significant change.

It will be interesting to follow that sea change especially in the Middle East but elsewhere too. That change itself will have some interesting side effects too.

The post below shows one of them.

Finally someone important says what the ‘Iranian nuclear issue’ really is about – Iran’s security:

Russia says "Six" could guarantee Iran security

YEKATERINBURG, Russia (Reuters) – The six powers negotiating with Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program could offer Tehran security guarantees, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters on Wednesday.

"I think the ‘Six’ could make the following step: directly put concrete offers on the negotiating table, give Iran security guarantees and ensure a more distinguished place in negotiations on the situation in the Middle East," Lavrov said.
…
"I am convinced that this is an effective way of relieving tensions in the region and regulating the situation surrounding Iran’s nuclear problem," Lavrov said.

But of course the U.S. wants ‘regime change’ and has no intention to let Iran live in peace:

U.S. says Iran security pledge not on table in atom row

"Security guarantees are not something we are looking at the moment," White House spokesman Gordon Johndroe said in Israel as President George W. Bush launched a Middle East visit.

"As we’ve been saying, details (of the incentive package) are still being worked out and will be presented to the Iranian government soon. The one who needs to give security guarantees is Iran, because they keep threatening to wipe Israel off the map," Johndroe told reporters when asked about Moscow’s idea.

With the U.S. blocking any possibly reasonable offer, the ‘Six’ will of course achieve nothing. Sanctions will be circumvented and new security council action will likely be blocked.

Stalemate until whatever happens.

The U.S. allies in Lebanon lost out against Hizbullah. The Shia in Lebanon, represented by Hizbullah, are some 35% of the population. They may now actually achieve a better representation than the 20% of parliament seats allocated to them by the Taif accord.

Universial suffrage is a pain in the ass, if a third of votes are against the imperial, colonist USrael agenda. Something must be done about such an awesome Hezbollahstan.

The neocons, out of ideas, have their usual answer:

Bombing the runway of the Damascus airport for the role [Syria] plays in serving as a conduit for Iranian arms to Hezbollah would also be an appropriate signal of American displeasure.

Another idea, from an Israeli, is a bit more refined:

Upon the elimination of the Christian hegemony in Lebanon, the old Israeli interest in maintaining an independent Lebanon will dissipate. The real alternatives are an Iranian Lebanon or a Syrian Lebanon. We do not know the price Syria will be willing to pay for a secret pledge that Israel would not do a thing to prevent Lebanon’s annexation to Syria, but it is worthwhile looking into it – this price may be Syrian willing to renounce its claims for the Golan.

Pretty cool and much more thoughtful than the bomb, bomb, bomb neconed one.

"I’ve stolen your Porsche. So what. Now stop nagging about that little robbery and I’ll let you take your neighbours Jetta."

Chutzpa is a quite inimitable word.

Via Cyrus Safdari a flyer (front, back) by the Counterterrorism Intelligence Unit of the Texas Department of Public Safety. The title:

This brochure is intended to provide information that will help YOU to help US in our everyday effort to identify and stop terrorism-before it becomes a deadly and tragic reality.

The flyer goes on to list "Some Characteristics of Terrorists":

• Typically focused and committed to their cause.
• Team oriented and very disciplined.
• Trained to be familiar with their physical environment whether it be a 747 jumbo jet or a courthouse.
• Will employ a variety of vehicles and communicate predominately by cellphone, E Mail or text messenging services.
• Well prepared to spend years in "sleeper mode" until it comes time to attack.
• In many cases may appear to fit in and not draw attention to themselves.
• Will appear normal in appearance and behavior while portraying themselves as a tourist, student or business person.
• May be found traveling in mixed groups of men, women and children of varying ages who are unaware of their purpose.
• Trained to avoid confrontations with law enforcement and therefore can be expected to portray a "nice guy" image.
• Known to use disguises or undergo plastic surgery especially when featured on police wanted posters list some.

Cyrus admits that he fits all the above. I am now preparing an email to the Special Crimes Service of Texas to turn him in.

Who else here do I need to list?

Confess!

Okay, I will add myself. I also fit the above and even some other additional criteria laid out in the flyer.

Recently, I made a large cash purchase of beer, wine and liquor. Texas seems to have reason to suspect that terrorists are doing such. I also own a relative large amount of clothing, especially of Levi jeans. This, according to the flyer, is another of many sign that I am a terrorist.

At least in Texas, where everything is a bit bigger than elsewhere.

Wimberly said he’d recently sold a home in [Atlanta’s] West End that tells the tale of what’s happened in some neighborhoods. The home sold in March 2004 for $305,000 and then in August 2004 for $700,000. It tumbled to $122,900 in a sale last year. It sold recently for $51,000.
Tax assessors boggled by housing dip

Ouch!

That house may have hit its bottom, though the article points to some homes in the $10,000 range. The next step in the downward spiral is sinking tax revenue and lots of layoffs by cities, counties and states.

Two years from now things might start to look better again.