The current relative lull in Iraq is likely to end pretty soon. There are several recent events to support this assessment. All together they point to imminent danger for the U.S. troops in Iraq.

The election law for the provincial election this fall will not be agreed upon in a sufficient time frame. The elections will be moved out to next year and/or will be manipulated to allow as few choices as possible. This of course fits the Maliki government and the Kurds who in fair elections would lose power to the Sadr movement in the south and to Sunni Arabs in the north. Reidar Visser explains:

Today, the latest phase in the forced ethno-federalisation of Iraq is being played out as the Kurdish–ISCI ruling minority tries to fashion a provincial elections law that can suit its strategy of minimising popular impact on the elections results. Open lists that would give voters the opportunity of overruling party elites in their choice of candidates have been discussed in Iraq recently, but the KDP-appointed president of the “independent” electoral commission, Faraj al-Haydari, has already deemed this “impracticable”. Similarly, the idea of smaller electoral districts is being dismissed because of Kurdish concerns over Kirkuk.

The already announced, by Maliki, return of the Sunni parties to the Maliki government is not happening:

Iraq’s main Sunni Arab political bloc said on Wednesday it had suspended talks to rejoin the Shiite-led government after a disagreement with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki over a cabinet post.

Muqtada al-Sadr called for weekly demonstrations against the U.S. demanded ‘Stationing of Forces Agreement’:

In a statement issued by his office, the radical cleric urged that "Iraqis across the country to hold demonstrations every week after Friday prayers until further notice or until the agreement is canceled."

He also called on all Iraqi political blocs to join force to reject the pact, demanding referendums for any agreement with Washington.

The non-sectarian resistance in Iraq, emphasized by Sadr, now gets active support from Lebanon’s Hizbullah leader Nasrullah. As Badger translates form Arab media:

The instigation to resistance in Iraq on the part of the leader of Hizbullah, and with this unprecedented clarity, represents the taking of a strong position against the ruling group, in the name of Shiia Islam, and [in the name of] all who participate in this project from among the Sunni parties.

Add to that the possibility of retaliation for a U.S. attack on Iran and you have lots of likely flashpoints.

Any real fight with the Shia, over Iran or internally in Iraq, would endanger the U.S. supply line from Kuwait to Baghdad.

Last October I mused about an alternative route for U.S. supply based on a tiny hint in a Leila Fadel report. In ‘You could supply us through Aqaba’ I wrote:

With the British troops retreating to their air-base near Basra and eventually leaving, the U.S. supply route from Kuwait harbour to Baghdad is endangered. It is assumed that any U.S. conflict with Iran would lead to unrest in the southern Shia provinces in Iraq and disrupt that logistic ‘line of communication’.

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While the new Route Blue is about double as long as the red MSR Tampa, a long haul from the port of Aqaba is better than no haul at all. Especially when it carries your breakfast.

There was little confirmation for my assertions of an additional supply line when I wrote the above. The main news outlets never reported about such. Up to now that is and we only learn about the route because it involves serious corruption: Crossing Jordan: Iraq fuel deal sparks lawsuit

A little-noticed civil lawsuit in Florida is shining a light on an unusual but hugely profitable Pentagon contract to ship millions of gallons of aviation fuel to U.S. bases in Iraq through the kingdom of Jordan.

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Although Jordan is not an oil-producing country, unlike other neighbors of Iraq such as Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, the Pentagon had insisted that fuel be brought in through Jordan.

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The latest IOTC contract is worth $913 million over two years.

(The IOTC owner who runs the racket is, of course, a McCain supporter:

In March he hosted a $2,300-a-seat fundraiser for Sen. John McCain in Florida, according to the Palm Beach Post.

McCain’s office declined to comment.

A part of that $1 overcharge per gallon goes to Republican party coffers. As usual, the Pentagon is financing the Republican party. But I digress.)

To the $38 million per month IOTC gets one has to add the millions the Sunni Awakening Councils are paid to not attack those large convois passing through their realm to the .

But money isn’t everything. Even a thuggish Anbar sheik has some honor and I expect these folks  to come to some agreement with Sadr against the U.S. puppets in the Green Zone. (Lube in form of  monetary equivalents from someone (Turkey?) would
certainly help the awakeniks to again change colors.)

The whole situation practically guarantees new fights. If these ensue in a united Sunni/Shia fashion, BOTH U.S. supply routes from Kuwait AND from Jordan would be in jeopardy. If the Kurds become uptidy against Turkey, as they always want to do, the limited supply line from the north will also be closed down.

If there are still sane folks in the Pentagon, they might want to think this trough before dropping bombs on Iran for sole domestic politics purpose.