Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
April 10, 2008
Insurgency in Egypt?

There were local "elections" in Egypt this week with a very low turnout and today was the third day of demonstrations and riots with 56 people wounded in fights with the police.

This could escalate and have serious consequences for the Mubarak regime and its U.S. backers.

The demonstrations are against high food prices, lack of subsidized bread and low wages.

But the real reason behind these is political disenfranchisement. The Muslim Brotherhood and other parties were not allowed to put their candidates on the ballots, instead many were put into prison.

The MB had sought to run some 6,000 candidates in the elections slated to fill some 52,000 posts in local administration throughout the country. The regime placed many kinds of obstacles in their way– including deploying security forces to forbid entry to the places where candidates needed to register, and widespread campaigns of arrest without trial and other forms of intimidation. In the end, only 20 of the MB’s 6,000 chosen candidates were able to make it onto the electoral list, at all.

The Muslim Brotherhood finally called for an election boycott.

Like Hamas, Hizbullah and Sadr’s movement, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood is an Islamic social organisation with its constituency in the poor masses. So far it did not call for violence. But with the political way blocked, at least some of its people will try a different course.

Egypt is not a poor state. It exports natural gas, now even to Israel, but the money it gains is not used to alleviate the life of the poor. The gas and oil is produced under production sharing agreements leaving much of the $14 billion in export revenue with western companies and the rest in the hands of a patronage system.

Mubarak, the U.S. backed dictator, is preparing to lift his son Gamal onto the throne.

Will he have time enough to do so?

Maybe not. To me this looks like people are about ready to take him down. The strategic consequences of a rebellion or insurgency in Egypt would be huge.

Video via Abu Muqawama

Comments

Adding:
a. There have been calls for a countrywide strike in Egypt on May 4, the 80th birthday of Mubarak. These could erupt into something bigger.
b. The Sceptic is a blog with good coverage of Egypt.

Posted by: b | Apr 10 2008 16:32 utc | 1

Food riots have broken out across the poorer world all year. Maybe riots in Egypt will finally penetrate into MSM.

Food price rises of more than 40 per cent in the last 12 months have helped spark riots and unrest in countries like Egypt, Haiti and Uzbekistan.
On Monday there were food riots in Haiti and there have been violent protests in Ivory Coast. Riots after price rises in Cameroon in February left 40 people dead….
And according to UN under-secretary general for Humanitarian Affairs John Holmes, we could be seeing even more trouble in more countries.
“There are some fundamental factors behind this. This is not just, I think, a sort of quick blip in prices which will return to normal shortly, it’s because there are these fundamental factors of the population rising, crops being used for bio-fuels, more sophisticated diets in places like India and China. …
“What we fear is that if this is a long-term trend, then we really could see in the poorest, most vulnerable countries, in the poorest, most vulnerable sections of the population of those countries, real problems…

Amy Goodman has been covering the story. USAID food program has run out of money, due to higher costs of food, and thus has less food to distribute then in previous years. Not my favorite org, but, of course, it would be the food program which is left to atrophy with underfunding. God forbid that US cancel a purchase order for a single tank or airplane to pay for food.
The weakest, least popular governments will go first. Mubarak is certainly vulnerable.

Posted by: small coke | Apr 10 2008 17:14 utc | 2

Tony Karon – posted yesterday, but I only just got to read it – concurs: A ‘Revolutionary’ Moment in Egypt?

But the food crisis has impeded the regime’s ability to provide the heavily subsidized bread that has been a major part of its strategy for keeping things docile. And the result has been an upsurge in strike action and confrontation. Thus far, the Brotherhood says it’s staying out of it. But as the pressure mounts, well, let’s just say that in Egypt, unlike many other regimes challenged by the food crisis, there is a nationallly organized opposition functioning in the conditions of twilight legality that make a political organization better able to withstand repression, and which sees itself as the legitimate expression of popular democratic aspirations. Just a guess, here, but I’d say the inability of the Mubarak regime to secure popular legitimacy, the popularity of the Muslim Brotherhood, and a food crisis that is raising the level of hunger among ordinary Egyptians might just combine to create a perfect storm.

Posted by: b | Apr 10 2008 17:40 utc | 3

@samll coke – yes, the hunger crisis will lead to unrest and political change in many countries.
None of the reports I have seen explains the real story behind the last months rise in these prices. In February I wrote Fed Rate Cuts Kill People on how the Fed, by flodding the markets with money, heats the speculation in the commoditiy markets.
Billions on dollar in derviatives speculating on price increases of “stuff” will let people who own such “stuff” to stick with it. They horde in expectation to get more by selling the “stuff” later.
A forensic analysis of this (a current one is difficult as the derivative business is very intransperent) in a few month or years will find that this crisis is to a big part artificially made through speculation with cheap money. Rice prices jumped 10% within a week and have doubled since january – absent a natural catastrophy the reason for that can not be scarcity. It is speculation.

Posted by: b | Apr 10 2008 17:54 utc | 4

Let me see here.
bin Laden’s reasons for 9-11.
US removes military presence from Saudi Arabia, check.
Regime change in Iraq, check.
Regime change in Egypt, on-going.
Sounds to me like we are doing all we can to comply.

Posted by: IntelVet | Apr 10 2008 19:36 utc | 5

China Hand has a good summary about the recent riots in Pakistan, that I hadn’t even heard about. It looks like the US is still working behind the scenes (now with Bhutto’s widower Zardari) to keep Musharraf, no matter what the elections said.

Posted by: Dick Durata | Apr 10 2008 21:30 utc | 6

Food riots are gonna happen over half the countries on this planet before the year is over, the way it has begun. Egypt is boiling, but even worse for the US and the “war on terror”, and for world security as well, Pakistan is in a very bad situation with regard to food, and unlike Egypt and Iran, Pakistan has dozens of nukes.

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Apr 10 2008 23:46 utc | 7

its not just about food, its also about diet. Too much of the world is strung out on wheat, rice and corn/maize foods. Hence the potential for the biblical outcomes we have here.
perhaps Americans can set an example for the rest of the world. Lets expand the global diet and hence the supply-chain. If the demand can be established, theres huge potential for in-sourcing cassava, sorghum, plantains, mangoes, yams, cous-cous, peanut-for-stew, guava, gazillion species of beans and spinaches, paw-paw, soya … onto the American dinner table. And by the way, I’ve heard snails not bad if you approach it with a good attitude.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Apr 11 2008 0:45 utc | 8

perhaps Americans can set an example for the rest of the world…
the only example America can set now is how not to act.

Posted by: Lizard | Apr 11 2008 2:06 utc | 9

IntelVet, you are assuming OBL works for the Dark Side,
or conversely, you are hoping that BushCon works for US.
“America is not a poor nation. It exports machinery,
airplanes, computers, lumber, ore, fish, food grains
and now even scrap materials to China, but the trade
revenue it gains is not used to alleviate the life of
America’s poor, and provides only wage slavery for its
workers. Most of the FATUS commodity aggregations are
produced under production sharing agreements leaving
the $120 billion in export revenue with multi-national
corporations and international investors and the rest
in the hands of a political patronage system. America’s
fertile soils, once renowned throughout the world,
have been strip mined. America’s fertile imagination,
once a delight of the world, has been mass pablumated.”
Oh, crap, American Idle is on!!!! GTG!!! LOL!!!

Posted by: Terrence Micheals | Apr 11 2008 3:57 utc | 10

Strikes in Egypt have been ongoing for more than a year now, in reaction to the neoliberalization of Egypt’s economy. I am afraid the recent huge increases in food prices may have brought a new element to the picture – less disciplined, hence more dangerous for everyone involved.
My favorite source for keeping track of labor action in Egypt is arabawy.
Speaking of labor action, something very different but equally admirable:
Longshoremen to close ports on West Coast to protest war

(snip)
[…]dockworkers of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union have decided to stop work for eight hours in all U.S. West Coast ports on May 1, International Workers’ Day, to call for an end to the war.
(snip)

Posted by: Alamet | Apr 12 2008 0:24 utc | 11

Underbelly of Egypt’s Neoliberal Agenda by Joel Beinin.
Found via Just World News

Posted by: Alamet | Apr 12 2008 21:20 utc | 12