Elections in Nepal – Moon of Alabama

April 14, 2008

Elections in Nepal

The Maoist party, a "terrorist" organization according to the U.S. State Department, has won the Nepalese election for a constituent assembly. The competing Communist party (Marxist-Leninist) nearly came in second.

The Carter Center says the election were "well executed" and essentially free and fair.

For a Nepalese view you might want to check United we blog!. A recent piece there analyses the election and it is interesting to compare this to the U.S. situation:

Maoists are winning the election. There are various reasons for that. The most prominent reason is people’s need for a change. They want something different. They have tried congress and they have tried UML. They haven’t done much to people’s aspiration. They now want someone new in the place. And they have found perfect alternatives to those. They have found a party with whom they could relate to. They have found a party who talks about change and who promises them what they want. The second reason for the Maoists win is the new generation of the voters. It’s been long since we voted. And many of us were children in last election. Many of us are voting for the first time. The EC estimates nearly 35 percent of the population to be first time voter in this election. And this population swung the elections. The youths have stood for a change. And they have voted for a change. This has swung the pendulum towards Maoists win.

The Maoists will abandon the kingdom and establish a democratic republic. The economic model will be a kind of socialist democracy, not a neo-liberal free market model.

For various reasons neither the U.S., nor India will like this outcome.

How long will it take to declare this a threat to American interests and for some intervention to happen?

Posted by b on April 14, 2008 at 11:30 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Nepalese are obviously more sensible than most Westerners. I mean, you vote for “labour”, “dems” or “socialists”, then these guys screw the job and don’t defend the people but work with big business. Then what will the average Westerner do? He won’t vote for the same centre-left parties who betrayed him of course, he’ll vote for someone else. And he’ll vote for a centre-right party, as if Christian democracies or Tories were going to go for a more leftist policy than the self-claimed classical left?
At last Nepalese have the good sense of being logical people, and when the centre or the moderate left don’t deliver leftist policies, they move even further left.
Gosh, I wish the terminally stupid Americans and Europeans had that much intelligence left in them.
(in case you’re a newcomer and are wondering, nay, that wasn’t snark, I totally mean it)

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Apr 14 2008 13:19 utc | 1

ATOL: Nepal triggers Himalayan avalanche

The Maoist government will proceed to dismantle the pillars of Nepal’s feudal structure and will take recourse to radical economic and political reforms based on distributive justice and egalitarian principles. That is bound to catch the attention of impoverished Indians in the sub-Himalayan belt sooner or later. The Indian states (provinces) bordering Nepal are notorious for their misgovernance.
The Maoist victory in Nepal poses a challenge to the Indian establishment as well. Delhi is distinctly lukewarm about the prospect of an outright Maoist victory. The Indian establishment traditionally works with the Nepali Congress. Some elements within the establishment view with disquiet the prospect of the Maoists galvanizing revolutionary movements within India.
…
The overarching geopolitical reality is that the United States has become hyperactive in Nepalese politics. The developments in Tibet have added a further dimension. Tibetan activists in Nepal have been particularly strident.
…
Nepal has proved to be an unhappy experience for the United States and India in their newfound interest to coordinate and harmonize their regional policies. While India managed to keep its options open in a developing situation, the US policy finds itself in a cul-de-sac. It was predicated on the naive belief that Nepal could be made a geopolitical pressure point on China’s soft underbelly. Nepal becomes the latest link in the chain of the George W Bush administration’s foreign policy misadventures.

Posted by: b | Apr 14 2008 13:23 utc | 2

it would seem that the nepalese have far greater sense than the italians who are like to reelect the godfather corpse berlusconi
& it might force stephen ‘the fuckwit’ hadley to understand the difference between nepal & tibet

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Apr 14 2008 13:48 utc | 3

B’s link in # 2:
Nepal becomes the latest link in the chain of the George W Bush administration’s foreign policy misadventures.
Here’s some more examples:

At least two $1 billion copper and cobalt mines are under construction here in the southern province of Katanga, and China is investing $9 billion for roads and other infrastructure projects in return for lucrative mining concessions.
Many observers say that if the government manages well, Congo could become an economic engine for Africa.

Congo’s ‘Change of Mentality’

BOAO, China, April 13 (Reuters) – Taiwan’s vice president-elect and China’s commerce minister held talks on economic cooperation on Sunday, underlining the potential benefits of closer ties after a landmark meeting a day earlier.

After breaking ice, China, Taiwan talk business

But last month it won the backing of the 33-member Latin American and Caribbean group at the United Nations with hardly a voice raised, and the endorsement, by acclamation, assures it of winning election to the one-year post in the 192-member General Assembly in June.
The man Nicaragua has put forward to be the new president this fall is the Rev. Miguel D’Escoto Brockmann, a Catholic priest who was the foreign minister of the Sandinista government from 1979 to 1990 and last year became a senior foreign affairs adviser to Daniel Ortega, the first Sandinista president, when he returned to office.

Nicaragua Credited With Shrewd Tactics in Bid for General Assembly Presidency
Of course the public are paying the price as the ranks of the poor steadily increase, the low income earners are hit hard with increased food and energy costs, the middle class share of the pie shrinks via price inflation and higher taxes increases via the Alternative Minimum Tax provision, and small business bankruptcies increase because of high fuel costs and the debt crisis created in WH. The elites seem to be oblivious to their diminishing standing in the World probably due to their immense wealth pampering them from reality. Sadly many from the former will keep voting for the latter.

Posted by: Sam | Apr 14 2008 14:43 utc | 4

From reuters:
Of the 601 seats in a new assembly that will rewrite Nepal’s constitution, 213 have been decided or were close to being allocated — with the ultra-republican Maoists taking 104 seats and leading in eight others.

Posted by: biklett | Apr 14 2008 16:05 utc | 5

the godfather corpse berlusconi..stephen ‘the fuckwit’ hadley
spitting coffee on keyboard.
lovin ya r’giap

Posted by: annie | Apr 14 2008 16:32 utc | 6

If Nepal had oil, they would be dead meat…

Posted by: ralphieboy | Apr 14 2008 18:43 utc | 7

For some commentary on the elections and interviews with Nepalis on their future, listen to
Wort: Third World View.
If that doesn’t work, go to
http://archive.wort-fm.org/
and click on “Third World View” (for 13 Apr). The feature on Nepal starts at 30:00.
The two reporters are fluent in Nepali and have spent a great deal of time there. I should add that they are friends of mine.

Posted by: ddc | Apr 15 2008 1:56 utc | 8

I’m thinking they’re going to try the next ‘colour revolution’ in nepal… 🙂 maybe not immediately perhaps but at some time in the not too distant future.

Posted by: A | Apr 15 2008 2:40 utc | 9

The NYT comes up with something “radical”: Nepal’s Maoists Lead in Early Election Results

Prachanda pledged Sunday to work with the other parties. It is not clear whether winning control of the government would embolden his party to push its most radical demands, like integrating its former fighters into the security forces, or whether the task of governance, in which the Maoists have little experience, would make them “sober up,” in the words of a diplomat, who, under normal diplomatic protocol, could not publicly comment on an election.

If I remember right, that is the same “radical demand” the U.S. is making to Maliki, i.e. integrate the “Awakening Council” fighters into the Iraqi army.
But that was never described as “radical” by the NYT …

Posted by: b | Apr 15 2008 6:40 utc | 10

and with China’s fast-growing influence in Africa, the emergence of Maoist-inclined governments there is just a matter of time. Its a no-brainer that China’s aspiration for Africa goes far beyond economics and includes massive political re-alignment. Its just a matter of when it will begin.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Apr 15 2008 8:34 utc | 11

Following on what jony_b_cool said @ 11:

Over the past year, global demand for foodstuffs has risen sharply, caused largely by the rapid emergence of middle-class consumers in China and India.
Taken together, these giant countries have a new middle class of about 600 million – a figure approaching the combined populations of the US and Western Europe.

And at the same time as we turn our food into fuel
And with their new found wealth they are increasing their military spending. And not just in the East but even here in the West the rebellion grows:

CARACAS (Reuters) – South America has a right to beef up its armed forces but is not in an arms race, Brazil’s defense minister said on Monday, as the region raises military spending on the back of high oil, food and metals prices.
Brazilian Defense Minister Nelson Jobim, who is in Venezuela to discuss a planned South American security council, said the region needed military power to strengthen its presence on the world stage.

Witness the fruits of George the Uniter
25 Years ago they scoffed at China becoming a real competitor. Today they call it the Great Decoupling. One thing they all have in common is fear of the Iraq example. They are all buying more arms.

Posted by: Sam | Apr 15 2008 10:08 utc | 12

And what to make of this:

“I believe in a corridor linking Pakistan and China, more road linkage, a rail link, fibre optics and oil and gas,” Musharraf said. “We are vying for a pipeline in Pakistan between Iran, Pakistan and India. We are calling it the I-P-I pipeline. So why can’t this be the I-P-C pipeline between Iran, Pakistan and China?” he asked.
…
Meanwhile, further progress was made on Monday in Pak-China talks on joint investments, trade, defence and energy sectors as President Pervez Musharraf continued deliberations with the Chinese leaders on the fifth day of his state visit to China.

Musharraf seeks Chinese, Russian help for Afghan peace

Posted by: Sam | Apr 15 2008 12:03 utc | 13

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