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March 11, 2008
War on Iran More Likely

[W]ell-placed observers now say that it will come as no surprise if Fallon is relieved of his command before his time is up next spring, maybe as early as this summer, in favor of a commander the White House considers to be more pliable. If that were to happen, it may well mean that the president and vice-president intend to take military action against Iran before the end of this year and don’t want a commander standing in their way.
The Man Between War and Peace, Esquire, March 05, 2008

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Adm. William Fallon, the top U.S. military commander for the Middle East, is resigning, Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Tuesday.

Gates said Fallon had asked him Tuesday morning for permission to retire and Gates agreed. Gates said the decision was entirely Fallon’s and that Gates believed it was "the right thing to do."
Fallon Resigns As Mideast Military Chief, AP, March 11, 2008

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President Bush is sending Vice President Dick Cheney to the Middle East, following on last week’s trip to the region by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
…
The vice president leaves Sunday on a trip that will take him to Israel, the West Bank, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Bush Sending Cheney to Middle East, VOA, March 10, 2008

Posted by b on March 11, 2008 at 20:05 UTC | Permalink
Comments

Also see, No. 2 general in Iraq transfers out of post

BAGHDAD — The No. 2 American commander in Iraq handed off his duties to a new commander Thursday, saying during a ceremony that despite significant security gains made under his watch, much work lies ahead.
Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, who has been tapped to be the next Army vice chief of staff, was one of the main architects of the “surge” of U.S. troops that brought some calm to Baghdad and other parts of Iraq in the latter half of 2007.
He said Thursday that Iran remains a threat to stability in Iraq. U.S. commanders have accused Iran of supporting of Shiite militia groups in Iraq and of supplying high-tech roadside bombs that target American troops. “I think there is still training going on with these groups. They might have slowed the flow of weapons,” Odierno said at a news conference following a 45-minute ceremony in the ornate rotunda of the al-Faw palace at Camp Victory just outside Baghdad to hand control to Lt. Gen. Lloyd Austin III.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Mar 11 2008 20:42 utc | 1

Beware the ides of March (15th).

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Mar 11 2008 20:59 utc | 2

completely consistent. they are going to war. whatever that fool gates says

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Mar 11 2008 21:06 utc | 3

I still remember when Fallon’s appointment was first announced in late 2006 the talk was that meant war. The argument being that a war with Iran would be conducted primarily by the Navy. And now that he is leaving, again that means war.
I used to believe that war with Iran was likely. Not anymore. I don’t worry about it for the same reason I don’t worry about war with North Korea; they can hit back.
If the U.S. didn’t go to war with oil at 70$ they aren’t going to war when its 110$….and bear in mind Mexican Gulf hurracaine season is only 5 months away. And we are facing a banking collapse here at home.

Posted by: Lysander | Mar 11 2008 21:07 utc | 4

They won’t go to war soon, that is quite sure, in my opinion. Similarly, I also tend to think they’ll need some big excuse to attack, not as big as Pearl Harbor maybe, but still bigger than having a fishing boat annoying the Navy in the Gulf. I’d expect some serious trouble somewhere against US interests, if not trouble at home, before war comes. If you see what I mean.

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Mar 11 2008 21:15 utc | 5

clueless
think you’re quite wrong. i think that part of the elite believes the only way they can consolidate – is an agressive war against iran. the excuses for doing so will be quite secondary – it doesn’t have to be anything substantial – the media will pump it up & the public will accede

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Mar 11 2008 21:27 utc | 6

Bomb China! Bomb Canada! Bomb Bombay! just give me my bread and circus for christ sake!

Posted by: gus | Mar 11 2008 21:34 utc | 7

AP says that Fallon is gone on March 31.

Posted by: Dick Durata | Mar 11 2008 21:35 utc | 8

I am sure “trouble at home” is going to be the main deterrent to an attack on Iran. Not a problem, if such an attack were a quick in and out, rapidly finished. However US generals must be terrified of the possibility that it will not be all over in a day or two – and that possibility is quite a strong one. Iran is not just going to roll over and die. After the US under GWB has turned two wars into quagmires. The thought of a third one! A third quagmire, and it would be the end of US world economic hegemony. You’d be asking for scraps of bread on street corners from the Chinese.
The situation reminds me a lot of the Spanish empire. They had all this silver and gold from the Americas, and they spent it all on wars in Europe, the quagmire in the Low Countries (what is today Belgium) ate up money without end. So they took to borrowing on the money market, with evident consequences. There was absolutely no internal economic development, and by the 18th century the Spanish peasant was amongst the poorest in Europe. and of course the colonies were neglected, so they rebelled, and it was only the last remnants that were consumed by the US.
Definitely the road of the future for a militarised US. World Hegemony is not guaranteed – though the cabal in the White House certainly thought it was.

Posted by: Alex | Mar 11 2008 21:59 utc | 9

I have to agree with Lysander.
“the power of Sauron is still less than fear makes it.”
The psycho’s at the heart of the neocon dream are not infinitely powerful. They still have to persuade, threaten and confuse alot of different interests to get their way. Maybe they’ll just go crazy on everyone sometime this year, but I’ve been hearing that war with Iran is imminent almost every couple of months for three years now. Something has clearly been stopping them so far.
On the other hand…
“Year after year the worriers and fretters would come to me with awful predictions of the outbreak of war. I denied it each time. I was only wrong twice.”
–Senior British intelligence official, retiring in 1950 after 47 years of service
I hope to the FSM I’m not wrong.

Posted by: swio | Mar 11 2008 23:13 utc | 10

If this comes to pass, expect an attack by the Israelis on Lebanon at the same moment.

Posted by: mikefromtexas | Mar 11 2008 23:31 utc | 11

I think we can probably look forward to an attack on the Saudi oilfields as well as on American/Coalition bases in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Lysander, hurricane season starts June 1st, just 2.5 months away. But that won’t stop the neocons; what do they care about American proles. Bush and McCain partied while New Orleans drowned.

Posted by: Ensley | Mar 11 2008 23:37 utc | 12

Nightmare. Do we ever get to wake up?

Posted by: beq | Mar 11 2008 23:48 utc | 13

Don’t forget – they make their own reality. We’re f*cked.

Posted by: Maxcrat | Mar 12 2008 0:05 utc | 14

I’ve been hearing that war with Iran is imminent almost every couple of months for three years now. Something has clearly been stopping them so far.
Word. I offered to bet my friends it would happen last year; they should’ve taken it.
“the power of Sauron is still less than fear makes it.”
From the point of view of other countries that’s certainly true; unfortunately it doesn’t apply for the denizens of Mordor.

Posted by: Cloud | Mar 12 2008 0:41 utc | 15

With respect to Iran, < A HREF=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X5bsLS9yZ48>the little press conference Bush gave when endorsing McCain was a bit worrying. More petulant than usual, he reminded me of the press conference he gave before invading Iraq where he simply ignored all the questions and rambled incoherently on about national security. Particularly troubling was his insistence that he “still had a lot of work to do”, and how he “was going to not walk, but sprint to the finish” of his term. He seemed to be setting McCain up as endorsing and tacitly agreeing (by not letting him get a word in edgewise) on whatever dreams of conquest swagger boy might now be entertaining. So its either that; a brand new war a comming, or he just really gets off when McCain blows him in public, or maybe both.

Posted by: anna missed | Mar 12 2008 0:59 utc | 16

Link for above
Sure wish annie would post some more so I’m not the only one who goofs up the links.

Posted by: anna missed | Mar 12 2008 1:02 utc | 17

I don’t deny they would try a war before Bush has to leave, but that means late January 2009. I’d rather expect them to attack in Sept., or even after the election. In fact they may well wait for the election to be over in the hope of a McCain victory, and if it doesn’t work this way, precipitate war when they’re still in office.
It’s not that I’ve never thought they’d attack. They’ve done enough stupid things before to do that one. It’s just that I never felt that war was just 3 weeks ahead, so far.
And I still suspect they have problems with some of their generals who clearly see this as insane.

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Mar 12 2008 9:04 utc | 18

Bush has to launch an onslaught against Iran – sometime between August and October. This is an election year – so reject appeasement and proclaim a crusade against the Islamofascists of Tehran, the source of all the evil that afflicts the globe. Fight for democracy, Israel, and the defeat of Al Qaida, Osama, Hamas, Hizbullah, and raise aloft the banner of freedom for true patriotic Americans to gather around. McCain is the Republican who must win – he has promised war for a hundred years and is the one to lead the march on to Armageddon , to take over from the Great Warrior Chief soon to leave the White House. So, as the missiles and bombs are launched for the defence of the the City Upon the Hill, the democrat candidate will be confronted by the choice of either supporting the Great Leader and his Chosen One, so acknowledging their wisdom, strength and worthiness, or criticising them and revealing themselves as unpatriotic and pusillanimous appeasers.
Bombing Tehran assures a McCain victory in November.

Posted by: Mick | Mar 12 2008 9:30 utc | 19

swio – may you be blessed by the caress of His noodly appendage

Posted by: jcairo | Mar 12 2008 9:50 utc | 20

@jcairo, swio, et al…
Can’t remember where I found this but…
Flying Spaghetti Monster spotted in Germany

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Mar 12 2008 10:07 utc | 21

These people are the very definition of stupid and do not learn from past mistakes.
The recent attempted UN res vs Iran was blocked by Libya & others.
McCain must win in November.
It’s the bomb Hanoi madman strategy writ large.
It’s to get Putin involved.
It’s to “save” Israel (read annihilate Gaza).
It’s to get Iraq back from Iran.
Darth Cheney is out after November; this is his last chance.
Game over.

Posted by: Dismal Science | Mar 12 2008 11:28 utc | 22

Actually, this is worse than Nixon, Cheney is the heir of Gen. MacArthur and Curtis LeMay.
Only MacArthur is not getting the sack here, he is empowered.
It’s a go to nuke Beijing.

Posted by: Dismal Science | Mar 12 2008 11:35 utc | 23

thanks Uncle $cam for a good laugh
All glory to Das English Spaghetti Monster and peace, love and eternal grooviness to fellow Pastafarians everywhere

Posted by: jcairo | Mar 12 2008 14:05 utc | 24

“…we have killed all our yesterdays and tomorrows and today – today is busting into flame.”
Thing is, the Army generals and the Navy Admirals may well balk to the point of mutiny should the Codpiece order insanity, but the Air Force has been padded with people* with a mind frame which might well do it — if so, universal war will follow.
* I assume y’all know what I mean — people who believe in Armegddedon, Rupture, Second Coming and that sort of stuff.

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Mar 12 2008 16:02 utc | 25

Some speculation on what George Bush and John McCain said on their way down to the bunker to meet with Dick Cheney. Sometime this summer, McCain will probably choose a running mate. Say we start bombing Iran about the same time. Who’s to say Cheney won’t volunteer to stay on as vice president in the interest of national security at a time our country is bogged down in three wars that need to be fought vigorously to their natural conclusion? Doesn’t seem to be anything in the Constitution that prevents it — and as for precedent, it’s never stopped these clowns before.

Posted by: Madison Guy | Mar 12 2008 17:08 utc | 26

one problem with your theory Madison Guy: Cheney’s about as popular as botulism with the electorate. so him on the ticket would pretty much guarantee the election won’t even be close enough to steal.

Posted by: ran | Mar 12 2008 17:31 utc | 27

Heavy hinting from NYT about alignment of command leaders:

… many of [Fallon’s] public statements have fallen within the range of views expressed by Mr. Gates and Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
… [Fallon’s] views competed with those of Gen. David H. Petraeus, the American commander in Iraq, who is a favorite of the White House.
Across the officer corps, a large number of senior military leaders share Admiral Fallon’s broad assessment that a war with Iran would bring unexpected and, perhaps, unmanageable, risks elsewhere…
…some younger officers have been critical of senior commanders for not speaking up about the risks of invading Iraq…
Mr. Gates and Admiral Mullen have maintained an unwavering public line that disagreements with Iran should be resolved diplomatically, and that any military option was only the last resort. … some White House officials are said to hold far more hawkish views on dealing with Iran.

From earlier version of NYT story:

Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary … said Mr. Gates and the admiral maintained a good working relationship, but that, like all military commanders, Admiral Fallon served at the pleasure of the president.

Posted by: small coke | Mar 12 2008 19:44 utc | 28

The oh, shit moment.

The worst part is that Cheney knows this, too. He just doesn’t care. This is the man’s parting shot as he leaves office– to put the country into the throes of a war so vicious that no one will think of pursuing him for his long list of crimes against the nation and the Constitution.
He is guessing–and he may be right–that the American public will, sheep-like as always, rally to the cause, with a new round of yellow magnet “ribbons” on their cars. He is hoping–and he may be right–that war will be a boon for the candidacy of Republican John McCain and for embattled Republicans running for Congress.
It’s a kind of political Hail Mary.

Posted by: catlady | Mar 13 2008 0:58 utc | 29

Somewhere in the Eisenhower taskforce is a modest troop carrier or resupply ship,
an old destroyer ready for the scrapyard, some forgettable non-name like the poor
zek on Star Trek with no name, ensign nobody, you know’ll be vaporized by aliens.
Zek will be famous for 15 minutes, “They killed Zekkie!”, then missiles will fly.
Face it, it’s a geopolitical necessity. Russia is moving in on Iran. China is too.
If $110/bbl oil hasn’t taught you the stakes yet, corporate tycoons sure know it.
Better Dead (Iran) than Red. Classic mil.con tactic, burn the village to save it.
Besides, of all the world’s nations, Iran has the lowest external debt of anyone.
Can’t have that now, can we? A zek reared in debt, will always be a debt-slave.

Posted by: Laffin Lenny | Mar 13 2008 4:58 utc | 30

what makes you such an expert on Iran’s debts Mr. Laffin Lenny….it sounds like to me that you know nothing

Posted by: Anonymous | Jun 1 2008 5:25 utc | 31

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