The Vanity Fair piece on how Bush provoked a Palestinian civil war has some quotes from the Palestinian crook Mohammed Dahlan. The author interviewed him in five-star hotel in Cairo.
Bush referred to Dahlan as "a good, solid leader" and declared "He’s our guy." (Dahlan is a longtime U.S. asset. Years ago Dahlan also had a rare private meeting with Bill Clinton.)
After Hamas won the Palestinian election, Dahlan was tasked to root out Hamas in the Gaza strip with weapons delivered by the U.S. In March 2007 Bush strongarmed Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas to give Dahlan the position as Palestinian national security adviser. After some protest Abbas gave in, but Dahlan lost the job after his putsch in Gaza had failed.
There is no word in the VF piece on how Bush and Rice see Dahlan now. But he is still somewhat involved. Two weeks ago Al-Ahram had this on a ongoing conflict within Fatah:
In the past few weeks, recrimination spilled over into the media, with Hakam Balawi, an aide to Abbas and Mohamed Dahlan, the former Fatah strongman in Gaza whose forces Hamas defeated in June 2006, engaging in a showdown of verbal abuse and name-calling with Dahlan.
Balawi has been accusing Dahlan of seeking to topple Abbas, by hook or by crook, and replace him as PA president, in coordination with unnamed external powers, a possible allusion to the United States and probably Israel as well. "Dahlan is an opportunist who is spreading chaos, illusions and poison," said Balawi in a statement issued on behalf of Fatah’s central committee. "His actions and statements have long been based on intimidations, threats and ultimatums."
Earlier, Balawi lambasted Dahlan "for losing Gaza to Hamas and fleeing with your tail between your legs."
Abbas, after a talk with Condi Rice, today again caved in to U.S. demands:
Earlier Wednesday, Abbas agreed to resume peace talks with Israel, only hours after he conditioned talks on a cease-fire with Israel in the Gaza Strip.
…
Under pressure from Rice, Abbas backed down from his earlier truce demand, allowing her to announce that talks would resume, U.S. officials said.
What is the U.S. pressure point towards Abbas. Is it a threat to throw him out of office and to install Dahlan in his place?
Is Dahlan still on the U.S. payroll?
Note that Rice had a few hours in Cairo before she went to Ramallah and tightened the thumbscrews on Abbas. While in Cairo did she meet Dahlan?
An attempt to replace Abbas with Dahlan would likely lead to an internal conflict within Fatah and, in the end, to a dissolution of the Fatah movement. Hamas would be left as the only mass organization in Gaza and the West Bank.
(The Israeli government would like to see Fatah fail. (That could happen anyway (pdf).) As Hamas is a "terrorist organization" they could again argue that "there is no one we can talk to" and continue their colonization project without hindrance or U.S. imposed negotiations.)
Bush and Rice may have some real ambition to get results in the Palestinian/Jewish conflict. They might see Dahlan as their last, best hope. In their dreams Dahlan might just be the man to deliver some ‘peace’ contract with between a Palestine side and Israel.
Of course a plan to install him in Abbas place would be crazy and likely fail.
But by that it would also fit the pattern we have seen in Bush’s other middle east plans.
So how likely is such a scheme?