Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
March 31, 2008
Hobrooke’s Afghanistan Conundrum

Some thoughts on Richard Holbrooke‘s oped in today’s Washington Post.

With regards to Afghanistan Holbrooke, a Democrat and possible Clinton SecState, writes:

This affair also highlights the conundrum Afghanistan presents the United States and NATO. There will be more successes like Khost as additional NATO troops, including 3,000 U.S. Marines, arrive later this year. But with each tactical achievement, Afghanistan will become more dependent on international support, which will always be better, faster and more honest than anything the government will be able to supply.

The effort in Afghanistan is vital to America’s national security interests, and we must succeed — as the team in Khost has. But even as the United States and its NATO allies move deeper into the cauldron, questions must be asked: When, and how, will the international community hand responsibility for Afghanistan back to its government? Will short-term success create a long-term trap for the United States and its allies, as the war becomes the longest in American history?

Before getting to the gist of that OpEd let me debunk some issues:

  • The "better, faster and more honest" solutions are only such in a "western" view. Afghanis are likely to view these (solutions by indiscriminate bombing) very different. Holbrooke presents no base for his statement other than U.S. puppet Karzai government voices.
  • Afghanistan has nothing to do with "America’s national security interests". The guys who did 9/11 where mostly Saudis. The pilots of those planes were not trained to fly in Afghanistan but, guess what, in U.S. flight schools. That the guy who is alleged to have come up with the general 9/11 idea was at some time a paying guest of some Afghan government hostel doesn’t make Afghanistan a "vital national security interest." That guy could have lived anywhere else working on the same plans.
  • If U.S. national security interests are in the economic sphere, like access to resources, please Mr Holbrooke, explain to my why China got the contract for that huge copper mine in Afghanistan and the U.S. didn’t even bid on it.

That said, Holbrooke has a point in asking the right question.

What is the "western" endgame in Afghanistan?

With each month more "western" forces are injected there, with each month the casualties increase on all sides, with each month the situation there gets worse for the Afghan people.

So what IS the plan for Afghanistan? Is there anyone at all?

The only one I can determine from press reports is to demonstrate NATO’s "viability" – the NORTH ATLANTIC(!) treaty organisation. My globe doesn’t show the North Atlantic or NATO threatened by Afghanistan …

So why does NATO have to show up there at all?

Comments

Quite right, b, no point to the war in Afghanistan. Not even to chase Usama and al-Qa’ida, who do no more than issue videos. The only question is how long it will take the powers to understand the pointlessness.
Apparently, not even the issue of heroin production is so important. I heard a radio programme this morning indicating that cold turkey from heroin addiction is not so difficult, less than recovering from alcoholism. No one died from heroin cold turkey, but a certain percentage die from giving up alcohol, once the stage of delirium tremens is reached. Of course injecting drugs of uncertain quality can kill you.

Posted by: Alex | Mar 31 2008 21:02 utc | 1

& if you are norwegian or latvian in afghanistan today & tonight – it is not so comfortable – they seem to be coming under sustained attack

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Mar 31 2008 21:04 utc | 2

maybe it’s part of the encircling arch-enemy Iran strategery?

Posted by: ran | Mar 31 2008 21:25 utc | 3

Given the pathetic failure in Basra by St Patraeus and Bush, I expect that this NATO summit is dead before it started.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Mar 31 2008 21:39 utc | 4

Maybe it’s all part of the “Esoteric Agenda”… bada bing…lol

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Mar 31 2008 22:20 utc | 5

or that it is a concious policy to create a sea of chaos everywhere. from the north to the south. from the east to the west

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Mar 31 2008 22:23 utc | 6

America’s strategy in Afghanistant is to prevent the creation of a single Eurasian power group. If China, Russia and the Central Asian Republics are able to form a single block it will ultimately be more powerful than the US based system. At the moment despite China’s enormous and growing industrial capacity they are still vulnerable to US blockade of hydrocarbon energy supplies as China’s imports of these come over the ocean and the US control’s the oceans. If Russian and Middle Eastern energy can be supplied overland to China and can be secured from any US attack then America’s ability to choke off China, or any of the Eurasian countries disappears. America could sail its navies around Eurasia all day long and no-one within Eurasia would care. They’d be big enough, and resource rich enough, and integrated enough to be a very strong independent economic entity. If that becomes true then the EU will also link up with this new entity and America’s hold on any of Eurasia will disappear altogether. In a way it resembles Britain’s stategy prior to the cold war of ensuring its position at the top by working to prevent the rise of a dominant power in Europe. For America, Afghanistan is supposed to be a military fortress giving them ability to project power over the heart of Eurasia preventing the rise of an economic and military power too big for America to compete with.

Posted by: swio | Mar 31 2008 23:12 utc | 7