Turkey just launched a large scale invasion of north Iraq:
Turkey’s military said the land offensive — the first major incursion in a decade — had fighter aircraft in support. Turkish TV said up to 10,000 troops had entered Iraq.
The operation was prepared with aerial bombing and artillery attacks on PKK position throughout the last days. PKK is a Kurdish rebel group fighting for autonomy in south-east Turkey.
The PKK operates unhindered in the Qandeel (Kandil) mountain range in north east Iraq:
No
Iraqi troops patrol here. PKK men in uniform check the IDs of those who
seek to visit. The image of the PKK’s leader is emblazoned on a
mountain slope, and a sign openly proclaims PKK headquarters. The
peshmerga troops of the Kurdistan Regional Government, which officially
rules northern Iraq, make no effort to enter.
During spring the PKK fighters used to come down from their snowy winter
Iraqi mountain retreats and slip across the border into Turkey.
A Turkish offense was expected to start in mid March. The idea for the
preemptive move now seems to be to cut off the PKK from its logistic
lines, to isolate them and to fight them on there own turf when the snow
recedes.
The invasion could easily expand into an open battle between Turkey and the Iraqi-Kurdish peshmerga.
There already was a standoff yesterday between Turkish troops stationed in observer posts in north Iraq and peshmerga units. The Turkish troops tried to take control of two roads in preperation of todays invasion.
Kurdish soldiers from the peshmerga militia, which is loyal to the Kurdish Regional Government, moved to stop them. For an hour and a half, the two sides faced off before the Turkish soldiers retreated to their base, which is about 27 miles northeast of the city of Dohuk. The peshmerga surrounded the base and remained there late Thursday.
The U.S. supports Turkey as well as the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq. One wonders how Washington will react when both seriously start to fight each other. The Kurdish Regional government will demand support from Baghdad against the Turks. If such is not provided, the Kurdish parties could stop any cooperation and Maliki’s government would fall.
The Turkish government says the operation will take as long as nessessary, which could of course be days or years. It also pledged not to hurt civilians and not to confront Iraqi-Kurdish Peshmerga forces.
It will be impossible to keep these promises as the PKK fighters are not distinguishable from the general population and have wide support and sympathy from their Iraqi-Kurdish brethren and the peshmerga.
It is therefore likely that this conflict will escalate.