Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 27, 2008
The Penalties: Inflation and Tax Hikes

Bernanke signals another rate cut and Greenspan tells the Gulf countries to get out of the dollar.

The effect of this is are a record low dollar, record high commodity prices and higher inflation.

Yesterday the rating companies Moody’s and S&P renewed their first-class AAA rating for mortgage insurer MBIA. This is a bad joke and exposes the whole rating system as a fraud.
Mish compares MBIA with pharma giant Pfitzer, which was downrated from AAA in December:

  • Profit margin -61.76% vs. +17.07%
  • Return on Equity -35.54% vs. +12.13%
  • Revenue $3.12 Billion vs. $48.61 Billion
  • Earnings Per Share -$15.22 vs. +$1.20
  • Total Cash $5.73 Billion vs. $20.30 Billion
  • Total Debt $17.44 Billion vs. $8.69 Billion

So why does Moody’s give an AAA rating to MBIA when it is obvious that MBIA is financial junk?

The decisions by Moody’s and S&P to retain the ratings protected as much as $637 billion of debt from downgrade, avoided fire sales of municipal bonds and helped save banks from as much as $70 billion of losses, based on Oppenheimer & Co. estimates.

The banks pressed Moody’s to keep the music going and the Fed and the Federal Exchange Commission seem to agree that lying is currently the best thing to do. The problem is of course that everybody looks right through this and any trust in the U.S. financial system erodes.

With the loss of trust the music one day will stop and there will be no chairs to sit down on. Then the government will bailout the banks by nationalizing the banking system.

The FT’s Martin Wolf says a $1 trillion national bailout of the banking system will not matter much. Well, maybe not to him.

But U.S. taxpayers will have to pay for this one way or another. Either through decades of higher taxes or through inflation. Most likely we will see both.

These are the penalties for the U.S. for living beyond its means. But while the profits of living beyond the means went mostly to the rich, the costs will be put on everyone.

Comments

this one is for b…
Hoping for a new voodoo

In 1980 Ronald Reagan surrounded himself with economic thinkers that challenged the prevailing Keynesian doctrine with supply side economics. In the same way that Arthur Laffer and Milton Friedman drove Reagan’s thinking. A new generation of economists from the University of Chicago are advising Barack Obama. Will behavioral economics change politics the way supply side economics did a generation ago?

Don’t miss the embed links there.
I’m physically giddy with excitement over the prospect of having behavioral economists in a position of power. /snark…

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Feb 27 2008 17:45 utc | 1

I’d prefer behavioral economists over pure “rational consumer” types any day (I have tought in rational field for a while and there was a lot of bullshit done by too much math and too little insight in human behavior.)

Posted by: b | Feb 27 2008 18:46 utc | 2

Fortunately, as we come to terms with fabricated ratings and phony insurance we will fuck the real economy, so don’t sweat the inflation, sez the market. Depreciation will be the primary cost, and the rich can shirk that cost as well.

Posted by: …—… | Feb 27 2008 20:16 utc | 3

Pretty much anything anyone says about Neo-Credit.con is either ill-informed, un-educated, or skillful-diversion-with-an-ulterior-motive. Pretty much what
anyone thinks, and any model they apply a thoughtful deduction to, is flawed.
This isn’t tulips, it isn’t inverted stamps, and it isn’t 1943 steel pennies.
What it is, is a blood-worm so far up the anus of capitalism, that the only
way they’re going to get it out, is to kill its victims to save the village.
The immediate question, at least the one that matters, are you their client?
If not, if you’re “safe”, the further question is how far you have to run to
escape that giant sucking sound, of vampire-royals pulling their fangs clear.
Anyone who’s lived in the ghetto, or nearby, knows exactly how this will play,
ontogeny recapitulating phylogeny, Ron Reagan lies a’ mouldering in the grave.
For those without street cents, Joyce has strewn their path with bread crumbs:
“¿For who is there who anything of some significance has apprehended but is
conscious that that exterior splendour may be the surface of a downwardtending
lutulent reality or on the contrary anyone so is there inilluminated as not to
perceive that as no nature’s boon can contend against the bounty of increase so
it behoves every most just citizen to become the exhortator and admonisher of his
semblables and to tremble lest what had in the past been by the nation excellently
commenced might be in the future not with similar excellence accomplished if an
inverecund habit shall have gradually traduced the honourable by ancestors
transmitted customs to that thither of profundity that that one was audacious
excessively who would have the hardihood to rise affirming that no more odious
offence can for anyone be than to oblivious neglect to consign that evangel
simultaneously command and promise which on all mortals with prophecy of abundance
or with diminution’s menace that exalted of reiteratedly procreating function ever
irrevocably enjoined?”

If you need the visual, “Where the River Flows North”, directed by Jay Craven.
For the macabre, “I Bury the Living”, directed by Albert Band. Great schtuff.

Posted by: Loose Shanks | Feb 28 2008 4:50 utc | 4

Yes, it is a grindhouse isn’t it, Loose Shanks…
A brutal “Memorias Atras”, in other words, a sonic soundtrack for the trip to Hell…
I encourage peeps to watch the above, even if you don’t like the music, there is power in getting to know the human dark side. The shadow can be viewed as the unlived life resulting from a certain pattern of life choices, says author Thomas Moore. “The person we choose to be, … automatically creates a dark double — the person we choose not to be.”
By hiding from it, or not gazing at it from time to time, it manifests by sheer lack of acknowledgment, it wants to be known, and the longer we ignore it the stronger it becomes. We have to breath through it, to integrate it.
Descent refines us so that our pain becomes more and more authentic.
The night is not interested in our achievements.As Jung remarked, everything conscious returns as fate.
Plus the visuals are pretty well disturbing, but very well done. 😉

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Feb 28 2008 7:37 utc | 5

er, make that everything ‘unconscious’…

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Feb 28 2008 7:50 utc | 6

Every M. of A. reader should get across the piece entitled the 6 trillion dollar war in today’s G2 section of the Guardian. URL is
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/28/iraq.afghanistan
Get across it. And go viral with it. Seed every wind.
It’s a piece about the Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and his new book.
It’s important because of 1) the degree of granularity and 2) the way it “makes connections”.
A quick example or two. Every American household is forking out $138 a month toward the current operating costs of the war. Could most Americans use an extra 35 bucks a week in their pocket? I think so.
Haliburton – Cheney’s little number – has racked up 19.3 billion dollars in single source contracts for work in Iraq.
Three trillion – half of what this abomination has cost – could have fixed social security for fifty years. Something that would have benefited every single American.
Basically, that wretched fool – led by the nose by people who have other axes to grind – has trashed the world. Especially Iraq and the United States. But ultimately the world – because of the way things “connect up”. His “stewardship” or “leadership” – and needless to say, the words derive their point from the want of application – is essentially an extremely destructive frat party – an appallingly stupid, unutterably cruel and vile five-year-long “binge” leveraged to the national and international level.
The which he’ll walk away from – expecting somebody else to clean the mess up – exactly as he would have walked away from a drunken spree of a frat party trashing orgy.
He’s pissed in everybody’s soup. And we’ve drunk it.

Posted by: Tehx | Feb 28 2008 12:34 utc | 8

Tehx – Eyeball: Dick Cheney’s New House Under Construction

Posted by: b real | Feb 28 2008 15:25 utc | 9

I know probably it is impossible, but I feel that Nov 08 elections, should be as soon as possible. Better in April than May. What do you feel?

Posted by: curious | Feb 28 2008 16:21 utc | 10

Daniel Khaneman, a psychologist who never studied economics, got the Nobel in Economics in 2002 for his work in cognitive psychology. His work, and that of social psychologists (risk, sharing, etc.) as well as some of the new behavioral economics is really quite interesting, either in a cute anecdotal way, or in a more profound way, dealing basically with social processes and mathematical thinking.
However, it has nothing to do with economics or pol-econ (politics + economy.) It deals with decision making of individuals / small groups in set conditions, persuasion, and influence (some might call it propaganda.) It tells us nothing about how the ‘set’ (present, future, etc.) conditions, how they arose, how they might change. The body of work has unstated universalist pretensions – look, they tell us, this is how human brains work, with an implicit and understood caveat that for others at other times/places it might not be relevant. Fair enough, everybody does that and one can’t be taking on history, sociology, and epistemology all at once. Perhaps one unfortunate result is that this kind of work reifies, glorifies, the individual, be he a lonely Joe, doping things out, or a member of a ‘group’ (variously and superficially defined.)
So it is not so much voodoo as an irrelevant, and probably pernicious distraction. Unsurprisingly, at the same time, the results are exploited by anyone who wants to manipulate – from the pol, to the hedge fund manager, to the head of the girls scout troop. Kahneman, to many an obscure psychologist, didn’t get that Nobel for no-nothing. (To be fair, that isn’t his responsibility.)
wiki Daniel K.

Posted by: Tangerine | Feb 28 2008 17:25 utc | 11

Daniel Khaneman, a psychologist who never studied economics, got the Nobel in Economics in 2002 for his work in cognitive psychology. His work, and that of social psychologists (risk, sharing, etc.) as well as some of the new behavioral economics is really quite interesting, either in a cute anecdotal way, or in a more profound way, dealing basically with social processes and mathematical thinking.
However, it has nothing to do with economics or pol-econ (politics + economy.) It deals with decision making of individuals / small groups in set conditions, persuasion, and influence (some might call it propaganda.) It tells us nothing about how the ‘set’ (present, future, etc.) conditions, how they arose, how they might change. The body of work has unstated universalist pretensions – look, they tell us, this is how human brains work, with an implicit and understood caveat that for others at other times/places it might not be relevant. Fair enough, everybody does that and one can’t be taking on history, sociology, and epistemology all at once. Perhaps one unfortunate result is that this kind of work reifies, glorifies, the individual, be he a lonely Joe, doping things out, or a member of a ‘group’ (variously and superficially defined.)
So it is not so much voodoo as an irrelevant, and probably pernicious, distraction. Unsurprisingly, at the same time, the results are exploited by anyone who wants to manipulate – from the pol, to the hedge fund manager, to the head of the girls scout troop. Kahneman, to many an obscure psychologist, didn’t get that Nobel for no-nothing. (To be fair, that isn’t his responsibility.)
wiki Daniel K.

Posted by: Tangerine | Feb 28 2008 17:27 utc | 12

scusi

Posted by: Tangerine | Feb 28 2008 17:33 utc | 13

Bernanke doesn’t see return of ’70s woes
Is this some kind of coded message? And of course it’s followed by,
Economy in slowdown but recession unlikely: Alfred E. Neuman Bush

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Feb 28 2008 19:15 utc | 14

I agree that recession is unlikely outcome. Massive Depression w/no end in sight is far more probable, given that those who caused it have Total Control.
If you caught any of Democracy Now 2 days ago w/Obamination’s top foreign policy aide, Samantha/Susan(?) Power – Amy asked her if she’d leave Harvard to join the Admin. She slipped & let the theme of the Greaseball’s reign out of the bag…well, in the spirit of “SHARED SACRIFICE”, I might…Awww shucks – while those on Soc. Security won’t be able to afford to live due to Pres. Greaseball’s plans to slash it while inflation explodes, she’ll take a leave from Harvard to work in the WH…

Posted by: jj | Feb 28 2008 19:31 utc | 15

Geeze, thanks guys!
I retire this summer and go on fixed (and not that big) income — hmn, o well, we can always dig the flowers up in the garden and grow potatoes…

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Feb 28 2008 19:45 utc | 16

Good Luck Chuck. Google up “Hamilton Project/Democrats”. First project will be to gut Social Security. Code Word is “form Bi-Partisan Blue Ribbon Commission” (for cover)…
I’ve been saying all along that it is the Predator’s Policy to deliberately Destroy the Dollar, turning xAm. into a Third World nation, so they can force people to turn in their dollars & have same currency as Mexico in a new country not governed by our Constitution that will be run of, by & for the Predators. In case y’all thought I was full of shit, Soros’ ex-business partner is now openly saying the same thing.

…The end game appears to be the continued destruction of the U.S. Dollar which will allow the establishment to implement the North American Union and a regional currency which will completely undermine the sovereignty of the United States. The crisis in the U.S. Dollar will be used to facilitate this phony solution which will give the big multinational corporations and central bankers even more power.
The Dollar is Being Destroyed

Posted by: jj | Feb 28 2008 19:54 utc | 17

Oops, meant to start quote w/this sentence that immediately precedes the one I began w/, so pls. insert this at the beginning of above quote:
We are about to witness a financial calamity of epic proportions and the establishment shows no sign of wishing to implement policies to reverse this.
As I said, this ain’t no recession blowing into town. For those of us who haven’t read “Shock Doctrine”, it’s time to do so…

Posted by: jj | Feb 28 2008 19:58 utc | 18

Reading Stiglitz Thex above linked to, I wonder why the Dem candidates haven’t picked up on this yet.
The costs of War on Iraq are delt by the U.S. citizens every day. It should be a main point of the campaign and McCain has little to refute it.

Posted by: b | Feb 28 2008 20:18 utc | 19

Big Surprise for Barkeep:
Pennsylvania Student Loans Halted on Auction Failures
….
The failures are occurring as investor confidence wanes in the creditworthiness of insurers backing auction-rate debt of the type Pennsylvania authorities issued.

Posted by: jj | Feb 28 2008 20:48 utc | 20

What are “Auction-Rate Securities” – econ Prof Morici explains in A Drama of Greed and Betrayal –
The Auction-Rate Securities Fiasco

A con-game by “investment” banks to screw both sides of a credit issue.

Posted by: b | Feb 28 2008 20:54 utc | 21

The good news is the workforce will increase exponentially, the bad news is how that will come about… Oh, and we might want to familiarize ourself in the latest ‘What’s Hot’ trends of late…
I wonder if NorthWest work camps will house Seattle-lites??

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Feb 28 2008 21:27 utc | 22

Hey “Heads I win, tails you lose!”
These are the penalties for the U.S. for living beyond its means. But while the profits of living beyond the means went mostly to the rich, the costs will be put on everyone.
Well, some more than others….

“There’s a whole lot of people who would’ve been stuck as renters without these exotic loan products,” Professor Sinai said. “Now it’s like they can do their renting from the bank, and if house values go up, they become the owner. If they go down, you have the choice to give the house back to the bank. You aren’t any worse off than renting, and you got a chance to do extremely well. If it’s heads I win, tails the bank loses, it’s worth the gamble.”
[snip]
Christian Menegatti, lead analyst at RGE Monitor, said the firm predicted more homeowners would walk away from their homes if prices continued to drop, regardless of their financial circumstances. If home prices drop an additional 10 percent, Mr. Menegatti said, 20 million households will owe more than the value of their homes.

Should you walk away?

Your lender WILL NOT be able to call you in attempt to collect!
Your lender WILL NOT be able to collect any deficiency or loss they may receive by you walking away!
You WILL be able to stay in your home for up to 8 months or more without having to pay anything to your lender!
You CAN have the foreclosure REMOVED from your credit!

No further comment or endorsement, simply food for thought. – Rick

Posted by: Rick | Feb 29 2008 9:29 utc | 23

A trillion here, a trillion there, pretty soon we’re talking about some real money!
Noble Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz estimates that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan may cost the US up to USD 7 trillion.

Posted by: Rick | Feb 29 2008 10:11 utc | 24

bad link above…try this
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/3D6D2861-EE7D-410B-A908-A9B0A0C6E600.htm

Posted by: Rick | Feb 29 2008 10:14 utc | 25

I give up… I meant this link
http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=45204&sectionid=3510203

Posted by: Rick | Feb 29 2008 10:17 utc | 26

Is that an adjustable rate mortgage?
Records: Jackson Late on Home Payments

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Public documents show Michael Jackson has repeatedly failed to make mortgage payments on a Los Angeles home that has been used for years by his family.
Documents filed with the Los Angeles County Recorder’s Office indicate the reclusive pop star was most recently in default last month on the property in Encino, an area in the San Fernando Valley.
The singer had $153,910 in missed payments as of Jan. 17 on a $4 million loan serviced by Pasadena-based mortgage lender IndyMac Bancorp. Documents dated Feb. 7 show the notice of default was withdrawn.
Documents also show Jackson previously faced possible default over missed payments on the home in April and August.
A spokeswoman for Jackson did not immediately return a call for comment.
Jackson’s Neverland property in Los Olivos, Calif., is set to be auctioned off March 19 because of missed payments on a $24.5 million loan.

Posted by: b | Feb 29 2008 10:40 utc | 27

Oil surpasses $103 for first time

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Feb 29 2008 11:19 utc | 28

democracynow on friday — EXCLUSIVE–The Three-Trillion Dollar War: Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard Economist Linda Bilmes on the True Cost of the U.S. Invasion and Occupation of Iraq

Joseph Stiglitz and Linda Bilmes join us in the Firehouse studio to discuss their new book, “The Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Cost of the Iraq Conflict.”

Posted by: b real | Feb 29 2008 15:31 utc | 29

Doug Noland: No LTCM
(scroll down to the last sub-headline)

This week also saw the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen as the best performing currencies, gaining 4.7% and 4.2% respectively. For those borrowing in these low-yielding currencies to finance leveraged speculations in higher-yielding U.S. (and other) securities, there is now recognition of acute currency risk. The stage is set for a panic out of the crowded leveraged trades.
This is No LTCM. And a very strong case can be made that Fed rates cuts have destabilized the Credit system. While the argument that Fed rate cuts worsen an already problematic inflation problem certainly has merit, there is a greater risk that goes unrecognized. During the Greenspan tenure, the Fed was keen to use the leveraged speculating community as its Key Monetary Reflationary Mechanism. This, over time, became an instrumental facet of the Credit Bubble; the Bubble in Wall Street structured finance; and the U.S. Bubble Economy.
Recent Fed desperate efforts to sustain both the Bubble in leveraged speculation and the deeply mal-adjusted U.S. economy are futile. As for the leveraged speculating community, it would be better for the long-term health of the system to let the bust run its course. Today’s reflationary efforts are clearly fueling further wild and destabilizing global speculation and excess, with major – and increasingly obvious – negative consequences here at home. As for the U.S. Bubble economy, throwing additional Credit at the Current Unsustainable (“services-based”) Economic Structure only ensures greater future Credit losses and financial sector upheaval, along with more problematic economic dislocation. Importantly, the Fed (Kohn and Bernanke) made another major mistake this week downplaying inflation and dollar risk – focusing instead on economic risk. Ironically, the Fed is today impotent with respect to the economy. It had best start paying attention to the stability of the currency markets, where it could have some impact.

Posted by: b | Mar 1 2008 15:12 utc | 30