Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 1, 2008
Mortgage Default Shame?

The FT laments about mortgage defaulters:

One possible explanation is that it has become culturally more acceptable this decade for people to abandon houses or stop paying in the hope of renegotiating their home loans. The shame that used to be associated with losing a house may, in other words, be ebbing away – particularly among homeowners who took out subprime loans in recent years, as underwriting standards were loosened.

Culturally more acceptable? Shame? Why does the FT writer wonders about such at all?

Did anyone involved in this expected shame?

Mr. X bet that sales prices would keep soaring and cheap and easy debt would remain available. But when the credit markets froze in the wake of the subprime crisis, he was trapped without a way of paying off the … debt.

The banks made loans to Mr. X for over 100% of the real estate value and the down payment was less than one percent.

Even if the markets had held up a bit longer the deal would never have survived as it was irresponsible in the first place.

That difference would have made it tricky for Mr. X to refinance his short-term … debt even if the sales and credit markets had held up. But since conditions changed, the only deals getting done have been those with high levels of equity — something that’s out of reach for the cash-strapped Xs.

When an estate is worth less than the mortgage owned and unlikely to
gain value, it is simply rational to walk away from it.

Did the banks expected Mr. X to have shame? Is Mr. X’s behavior is not culturally acceptable?

Mr. X’s real name is Harry Macklowe who last year bought seven Manhattan office buildings for $7 billion and now has a big loss.

What is the difference of Mr. Macklowe defaulting and the little guy who bought an overpriced condo in Florida and now sends the keys to the bank?

The FT would never involve shame or culturally acceptable in a story about Macklowe’s deals.

To wonder at all when little guys behave the same way as the big scammers is highly hypocritical.

Comments

The shame that used to be associated with losing a country may, in other words, be ebbing away. Be like Bush. Borrow more.

Posted by: Browning | Feb 1 2008 18:29 utc | 1

b
these scribblers at ft are a subspecies of man worthy of our greatest contempt
they are nothing other than the servants of power – some more obsequious than others
the idea- that the powerful should feel any sort of shame would not even enter into their stupid fucking heads
no – it is always we – the mass, the crowd, the mob, the mutiplicities who are required to feel such states because it serves, in the final analysis, profit
i was saying to a collleague in germany today – that unfortunately my sicknesses has made too many inroads – even into my temperament & emotional state – but i sd to that colleague – to read these scribblers – whether they are writing in french or italian or english has become physically unbearable to me
their service to power so apparent – & their commentary pure cretinisim – to read or to watch – makes me physically ill
i am a brutal man – but i think i possess an ear for refinement – not in the bourgeois sense – but in the old dialectical one that demands rigour & common sense
there is precious little of that & particularly in the financial journals – they are incapable of seeing what is in front of their eyes
they never never speak of the great inequalities that are the underpinning of the systems & economists they so adore. they say they fear recession but the great majority of people are already in one – they don’t need some goon from ft or wall street journal – to write what they weep
they are scum – pure & simple

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 1 2008 18:47 utc | 2

I tend to agree with the first article in that there has been a change in the way people view home ownership. Our parents tended to buy a home and stay in it. with the 1980s me generation that slowly changed into buying houses for short term, either because it was cheaper than renting or in hopes of flipping it in order to buy a bigger and better one. I believe this is also related to the great increase in job mobility due to the collapse of manufacturing in the US that caused a lot of internal migration. One could see which city had the best employment by checking the prices U-haul charged for their trailers……towns that had a lot of trailers usually had more work.
The last few years have seen unprecedented greed and foolishness in the housing market, every other person was a real estate agent and so many people bought into the pyramid scheme. some did make good money, others got out in time, the last ones are left owning a ridiculous amount for a stick house. were they foolish? sure but no more than the person who had it before them who also paid way too much, they were just unlucky being the last ones. I have no sympathy for any of them and do not favor any kind of bail out. as a matter of fact i am certain that any bailout is not aimed at helping these johnny come lately’s but rather to improve the balance sheets on the banks who have been turning billions in profits year after year. there can be lean and fat years for the slaves but the masters can only live on fat.
as for the fat cat in New York with his billions, that is a whole different ballgame with different rules. he is not like us and would be like comparing a 12 year old kicking a ball down the street to Diego Maradona. He is a big player dealing with huge transnational banks. let the sharks swim with the sharks, it doesn’t affect me.

Posted by: dan of steele | Feb 1 2008 20:00 utc | 3

dos
guile is not intelligence
the only audacity in crimnality is the measure of your hatred for human beings
diego maradon possessed a talent. a billionaire possesses things
their innovation & research is paid for them by us dumb citizen who always like to get screwed twice
& these billionaires hate welfare & the assistinat except when they are hollering for it
fuck them

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 1 2008 20:23 utc | 4

If the FT view holds sway throughout the moneylenders, those obliged to use them will have to pay more in the long run. The writer is basically saying that the old indoctrination of bourgeois sensibilities no longer works.
Back in the day when people bought a house or a home as they called it then the notion of losing it was unacceptable.
Part of that was the evolution inculcated imperative to have shelter, a nest, sure, but on top of that was the culturally acquired fear of being seen to no longer belong to the property owning class. I mean when you study it the whole paradigm is a scam, few people really own their own home, their mortgage is just another form of rent and to compare most suburban home-owners box and block to the tracts of land owned by the propertied class who were the only people allowed to vote until a century ago is laughable but it does keep many of the home owners believing they have an investment in oppressing themselves. There are more aspirational tories than real ones so the home-ownership bullshit was a neccessary part of the equation for universal suffrage, otherwise things might have actually changed.
Now the moneylenders have been hoist by their own petard. Part of the lending boom sold to most as the property boom was the need to convince people their box and block was no longer a home, it was a liquid asset, used to generate income (well the money lenders sold it as capital but the retail speculators really only swapped their factory job for a contracting, real estate brokering gig). This has taken the sentimental attachment to the home away, something the money lenders had planned on. Why?
It is much easier to convince the rest of the community that removing an asset from a creditor is acceptable, but throwing a family out of a home isn’t well received by the community at large.
Ironically the change has become a two edged sword, people no longer care as much about their box and block now they have been shown the smoke and mirrors behind the grand illusion. They tell their neighbors that a generation before would have been peering through the curtains whilst warning their children on the pitfalls of profligacy, that they made the best, most sensible financial decision for themselves. That they aren’t losers they are winners who beat the money lenders at their own game.
Which they undoubtedly have. Moneylenders will have built the extra charges and interest gathered from tenants fighting to keep their homes into their projected profits. People who just walk away don’t incur those extra charges. So now the moneylenders will have to go back to their actuarial tables and recalculate their book.
Right now researchers will be monitoring focus groups to see how much change there has been in humans’ attitude towards home ownership, then resetting their tables. This will push up the cost of mortgages for those who always pay on time of course. The usurers will just get their money elsewhere.
Of course long term it signals a bigger change than that. The big question for elites is, how do we redefine the goalposts for aspirational tories?

Posted by: Debs is dead | Feb 1 2008 21:07 utc | 5

Do modern managers show any sense of shame in running a company into the ground while walking away with multi-million-dollar option packages?

Posted by: ralphieboy | Feb 1 2008 21:29 utc | 6

The flipping speculators will be much more likely to use ‘jingle mail’ and walk away than the earnest people of modest means who had no other choice. In many areas of the country, especially areas with decent schools, there are no rentals available. The idea of constant appreciation was never contested in the MSM.
The whole idea of housing as a basic right and publicly build housing seems like ancient history now.
The unfair mortgage-interest deduction has always penalized renters and skewed the whole economy.
I have wondered how much federal tax revenues are reduced by people paying $50,000 and more each year just on mortgage interest. Phasing in a cap on this deduction would generate a useful fund to rectify some of this insanity.
The McMansion castles are the Potemkin villages of our time.

Posted by: biklett | Feb 1 2008 22:33 utc | 7

@biklett “I have wondered how much federal tax revenues are reduced by people paying $50,000 and more each year just on mortgage interest.”
The tax treatment of housing and mortgage deductions is skewed most places in the world. Many of the breaks for borrowers ended up being a subsidy for developers which just pushed up prices across the board and cost Joe Everyman with one wife, one bunch of kids and one house far more than leaving the tax rates on housing the same as everything else, does.
The real problems with housing cannot be confronted until supply is loosened sufficiently to satisfy demand. Of course selling that idea to someone who doesn’t have a house is easy but selling it to most who already own is nearly impossible.
We will see a change when the numbers of generation W voters who are not house owners exceeds the multi house owning baby boomers, that is once sufficient numbers our mob have died out.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Feb 1 2008 23:41 utc | 8

Senator Biden(D-Smuck) has a hand in this also. Without the option of bankruptcy some people are faced with the choice of paying the house payment or paying the credit cards. Unless a sizable amount of equity is involved in the home, I’d recommend paying the credit cards.

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Posted by: Wadey Tracey | Feb 2 2008 4:59 utc | 10

Buying grocieries on your credit card. Why should consumers behave differently than their governments?

Posted by: ralphieboy | Feb 2 2008 8:02 utc | 11

interesting spam from Wadey Tracey, precisely in this thread.

Posted by: dan of steele | Feb 2 2008 9:38 utc | 12

They’re not using the term shame like you guys are. Here it’s all loaded with moralistic connotations. Shame is just a psychological state closely linked to petit-borgeois status anxiety.

Posted by: …—… | Feb 2 2008 12:48 utc | 13

I agree with dan of steele (post #3): I think the FT piece is lucid, pertinent and informative.
For one thing, it tells us that the “modellers” made some familiar (and fundamental) errors of judgment, and did so by common agreement (no one, so far as I know, having left this toxic market in good time–except for Goldman Sachs which was rich enough to forego the take that kept everyone else in the game).
The word “shame” here is being used in a neutral and descriptive sense–a “cultural” artefact that can change for very good reasons, and should have been figured in by the modellers.
But how do you model “shame”? How do you assign it a quantitative value contributing to the model? More to the point, how do you model the role of “common sense,” which, as the FT author explains in so many words, would show the way to defaulting on all those mortgages? For he describes, shall we say, the wisdom of defaulting in the face of those cultural inhibitions, exercising, in the logic proposed, a kind of “honor” (the obverse of “shame”).
So how do you calculate the + of “honor” against the – of “shame”? There may be an obvious, quantitative answer to this, and if so, it would lie in the numbers as shown by the FT writer’s graphs: when people stare death in the face, they try to stay alive.
Can the “modellers”, therefore, predict the moment when someone being defrauded figures out what has happened, and proceeds to take the best option available at the time? Can they quantify the saying (and I hope I get this one right!), “fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me”?
To do this really well, they’d have to take questions of scale into account: I at least tend to see fraud as something that one person inflicts on another, but here we have a case where an industry has inflicted fraud on whole populations. And while individuals on their own may not learn to respond effectively to individual crimes–or do so in predictable ways–they can certainly learn how to do so (teaching each other how to do so) when the whole world around them is being defrauded at once.
But to take these things into account, the modellers would have to start with a simple premise, running something like this: “Since we, the lenders, are in the process of defrauding millions and millions of people at certain rates of profit to ourselves, how can we predict the point at which those peole will catch us at our game? When, in other words, should we reserve our one-way tickets to Rio, and for what (subsequent) date? ”

Posted by: alabama | Feb 2 2008 14:02 utc | 14

just reading john berger’s elegeic little book, ‘hold everything dear’ & on page 36 he says :
“by shame i do not mean individual guilt. shame, as i’m coming to understand it, is a species feeling which, in the long run, corrodes the capacity for hope and prevents us looking far ahead. we look down at out feet, thinking only of the next small step”

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Feb 2 2008 18:10 utc | 15

Yeah, the next small step into the boxcars….

Posted by: Tante Aime | Feb 2 2008 19:35 utc | 16

A real world tale of old, confirming that mortgage fraud has a long history.
I bought my first house in New Orleans in 1976, just as the real estate prices were beginning to rise above the ridiculous bargain level. The house was appraised at $5000, the 60 X 120 ft lot was $15,000. Mortgage Co. was willing to lend me a portion of the land value; the house was actually a liability as it would cost more to remove than it was worth. Was more or less sound though, and large enough (1600 sq ft) plus it had quaint antique appeal; had been painted once in 1908 when it was built, had 2 wires in the attic to supply power to one ceiling light per room, a sloping bathroom had been added on one end of the long veranda when indoor plumbing became law…and so forth.
Mortgager and appraiser were brothers. The first visitor to the newly acquired property was from the tax assessor, an elected official whose first job was to assure his electorate that their assessment would be zero. When I applied for a new loan on the renovated house after a year, the usual lawyer fees and survey were to be repeated had I not raised hell about it.
Seven years later I sold the place for 85k and it was a bargain at that. A retired professor and his wife are still happy with it just as I left it in 1985. Interesting too, is that the family I bought it from had owned the property since 1908; two brothers in their 90s were there until the end. They never threw anything away and they never bought anything new, so 68 years worth of junk, with narrow paths was in the house when I took possession.
Sorry for the sorta OT story.

Posted by: rapt | Feb 4 2008 15:26 utc | 17

Good story rapt.
My s.o. has a similar one. He bought a 2 over 2 farmhouse with outbuildings and 4 acres in the boonies for very little ($34,500) 9 years ago. The owner figured the house would need to be demolished so he was only really selling the land. S.o. asked me if I thought he was crazy. I said “anyone else but you, honey” and he gutted the house and propped it up inside with scaffolding and straightened it up. He found the termites had made it to the 2nd floor. He used fence boards to replace siding and material scavenged and salvaged from dumpsters at job sites where he worked (the bedroom has maple flooring someone threw away) and rebuilt it out of pocket. He makes his payments to the former owner who used to hang around alot, hoping he could repossess it. One more year and it’s paid for.

Posted by: beq | Mar 7 2008 22:37 utc | 18

Tantalizing vicarious life you offer, beq.
Thanks.

Posted by: Hamburger | Mar 8 2008 13:55 utc | 19