‘Model’ Foreign Policy in Pakistan

February 19, 2008

The above snapshot, just taken from the Washington Post homepage, is a fine demonstration of the inconsistencies in Bush’s foreign policy.

On one side ‘democracy’ propaganda, on the other support for Musharraf’s dictatorship with U.S. money and official backing. Then unilateral attacks launched by the U.S. against ‘terrorists’ in Pakistan which inevitably kill civilians and result in backslashes against Musharraf. His internal support is now so low, that he can no longer even dare to sufficiently rigg the election.

With first results in Musharraf’s PML-Q is expected to win 30-45 seats. The PML-N of Nawaz Sharif about 90-100 and the Bhutto family’s PPP 100-110 seats. If PLM-N and PPP unite, they could impeach Musharraf. But a backroom deal between Musharraf and the PPP is certainly also possible.

Whatever the outcome, it seems unlikely that the new government will further support the operation of the three ‘secret’ U.S. bases in Pakistan and U.S. attacks in the border region.

But Bhutto’s widower Asif Ali Zardari, the current leader of the PPP, is known to be a super-crony and the U.S. may offer enough bribes to him to gain a free hand for further ‘model’ attacks. The backslash from those would lead to even more ‘interesting times’ in Pakistan.

Posted by b on February 19, 2008 at 07:37 UTC | Permalink

Comments

What struck me was the internal contradiction in the second headline: “US often scores rare victories …”
They can be rare or they can happen often, but not both.

Posted by: weldon berger | Feb 19 2008 15:20 utc | 1

Pakistan Victors Want Dialogue With Militants

Bush administration officials said the United States would still like to see Pakistan’s opposition leaders find a way to work with Mr. Musharraf, a staunch ally for more than six years, but conceded that the notion appeared increasingly unlikely.
Though Mr. Zardari said he wanted a government of national consensus, he ruled out working with anyone from the previous government under Mr. Musharraf.
Instead he said he was talking to the leader of the other main opposition party, Nawaz Sharif, whose party finished second, about forming a coalition.

Interesting that Zardari rules out cooperation with Musharraf – were the bribes too small?

Posted by: b | Feb 20 2008 6:35 utc | 2

China Hand has a decent writeup on the election results:
Pakistan Election Roundup

The big winner in the February 18 general election was Nawaz Sharif.
…
And Sharif gets to wrong-foot the PPP, which is awkwardly attempting to preserve its domestic democratic credibility but at the same time live up to the deal Benazir Bhutto made with Washington, by which she would prop up Musharraf in return for a chance to return to Pakistan, contest the elections, and win the prime ministership.
Now, if the PPP had thoughts of accommodating Musharraf (and Washington), it has to take the immensely unpopular step of ignoring popular demand for restoration of the independent judiciary—with zero political cover from the PML-N.
…
The U.S. has always abhorred a situation in which the PPP and the PML-N formed a coalition.
Sharif is generally if inaccurately understood to be anti-American.
Back in December, President Bush publicly expressed doubt that Sharif could cut it as a partner of the World’s Only Superpower in the Global War on Terror.
…
Sharif represents resistance to the Bush administration’s confrontational security policy; resistance that, post Iraq, has become mainstream not only in Pakistan but throughout the Middle East.
His primary overseas patron is Saudi Arabia.
Sharif represents an Islamic security doctrine quietly championed by Riyadh that values stability (and has come to reject America’s highly destabilizing actions in the Middle East), is comfortable with religiously conservative regimes, and doesn’t care too much about what happens to Karzai, the NATO-backed regime in Kabul, or any of the other democracies we have midwifed so bloodily in the region.
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No matter who’s in power, we’re not going to unearth some miracle race of Pakistani crusaders ready to kill their own Muslim citizens so NATO can destroy Pakistan’s natural Pashtun allies in Afghanistan.
Better to settle for a popular, stable PPP/PML-N government in Pakistan without Musharraf but with Kiyani (the new, improved army strongman) and hope that all that money we’re throwing at Pakistan buys us some grudgingly-acknowledged leverage for anti-extremist initiatives that suit both U.S. policy and the Pakistani national mood.
Of course, accepting half a loaf is not really what the Bush administration is about. Its usual response to a setback is to blame it on a deficiency of will and vigor, and double down when the facts on the ground are screaming Change Course! instead.
So we’ll see whether Washington casts its vote in favor of the PPP+Musharraf, continued division and drift in Pakistani politics and security doctrine, and eventual dominance by Nawaz Sharif and a PML-N grown more overtly anti-American.
Or maybe we can do something smart right now.

Posted by: b | Feb 20 2008 7:09 utc | 3

McClatchy: Exclusive: U.S. urges Pakistanis to keep Musharraf, despite election defeat

The Bush administration is pressing the opposition leaders who defeated Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf to allow the former general to retain his position, a move that Western diplomats and U.S. officials say could trigger the very turmoil the United States seeks to avoid.
U.S. officials, from President Bush on down, said this week that they think Musharraf, a longtime U.S. ally, should continue to play a role, despite his party’s rout in parliamentary elections Monday and his unpopularity in the volatile, nuclear-armed nation.
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Bush’s policy of hanging on to Musharraf has caused friction between the White House and the State Department, with some career diplomats and other specialists arguing that the administration is trying to buck the political tides in Pakistan, U.S. officials said.
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Bush, traveling in Africa, on Wednesday expressed appreciation for Musharraf.
“It’s now time for the newly elected folks to show up and form their government, and the question then is, will they be friends of the United States, and I certainly hope so,” he said at a news conference in Ghana.
But many Pakistanis consider Musharraf a U.S. puppet for stepping up counter-insurgency operations in the tribal areas that have claimed the lives of women and children.
Experts cite that cooperation as a key reason for the devastating losses suffered by Musharraf’s political allies, who retained only 38 of 132 National Assembly seats.

So according to McClatchy it is Bush pressing for Musharraf to stay in office, against the will of career diplomats at state.
Robert Novak in WaPo says the opposite: Our Man in Islamabad

Publicly, State Department spokesman Tom Casey said that Musharraf “is still the president of Pakistan” and expressed hope that “whoever winds up in charge of the new government would be able to work with him.”
Privately, U.S. diplomats pushed hard against any effort to dislodge the retired army general who had just suffered a public rejection, unprecedented in Pakistan’s 60 years, from the office he retained last year through nefarious means.
…
Foggy Bottom’s stubborn policymakers are frozen in an irrelevant mind-set, dating to their effort last year to broker a partnership between Musharraf, as president, and Benazir Bhutto, as prime minister.

It seems Bhutto’s husband is already moving towards a coalition with Musharraf. The price the U.S. offers seems to be not right yet, but he is open to “negotiations”.

Posted by: b | Feb 21 2008 7:15 utc | 4

Independent: Don’t sack Musharraf, US and UK warn election victors

The US and Britain are pressing Pervez Musharraf’s victorious opponents to drop their demands that he resign as president and that the country’s independent judiciary be restored before forming a government.
In a strategy some Western diplomats admit could badly backfire, the Bush administration has made clear it wishes to continue to support Mr Musharraf even after Monday’s election in which the Pakistani public delivered a resounding rejection of his policies. “[The US] does not want some people pushed out because it would lead to instability. In this case that means Musharraf,” said one Western diplomat.

Posted by: b | Feb 21 2008 8:27 utc | 5

This is likely the end of any coalition involving Musharraf:
Pakistan Shift Could Curtail Drone Strikes

American officials reached a quiet understanding with Pakistan’s leader last month to intensify secret strikes against suspected terrorists by pilotless aircraft launched in Pakistan, senior officials in both governments say. But the prospect of changes in Pakistan’s government has the Bush administration worried that the new operations could be curtailed.
Among other things, the new arrangements allowed an increase in the number and scope of patrols and strikes by armed Predator surveillance aircraft launched from a secret base in Pakistan — a far more aggressive strategy to attack Al Qaeda and the Taliban than had existed before.
But since opposition parties emerged victorious from the parliamentary election early this week, American officials are worried that the new, more permissive arrangement could be choked off in its infancy.

Musharraf had sold out Pakistan’s sovereignity. No wonder the U.S. “urges him to stay”. But with this out that has just gotten impossible.
Wonder who leaked this to NYT …
Musharraf allowed the U.S. to do indiscriminate killing

Instead of having to confirm the identity of a suspected militant leader before attacking, this shift allowed American operators to strike convoys of vehicles that bear the characteristics of Qaeda or Taliban leaders on the run, for instance, so long as the risk of civilian casualties is judged to be low.
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The new, looser rules of engagement may have their biggest impact at a secret Central Intelligence Agency base in Pakistan whose existence was described by American and Pakistani officials who had previously kept it secret to avoid embarrassing President Pervez Musharraf politically.
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The new agreements with Pakistan came after a trip to the country on Jan. 9 by Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, and Gen. Michael V. Hayden, the C.I.A. director.

There are at least 3 “secret” U.S. bases in Pakistan (one report said 6)

Other administration officials warned not to read too much into the initial comments from Asif Ali Zardari, the leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party and widower of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, about reaching accords with the tribal leaders. Mr. Zardari, they noted, has made clear that he wants to defeat terrorism.

I doubt that Zardari can survive if he keeps up such “cooperation”.

Posted by: b | Feb 22 2008 6:32 utc | 6

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