Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
January 23, 2008
Gaza Ghetto Break-Out

Congratulations to the people of Gaza who broke out of the ghetto walls Israel and Egypt had erected around them.

Yesterday Egypt’s cowardly dictator had his police use water cannons against hungry Gazans who tried to get through the border. Today they blew up the walls. Mubarak now claims he let them through because "they were starving". He certainly fears the wrath of the U.S. congress which might take away the yearly $1.7 billion bribe he gets.

For now the illegal total isolation of Gaza is broken and there is not yet any reaction from the Israeli side. For some stupid reason the border between Gaza and Egypt is supposed to be controlled by the Palestinians and the EU. But when Israel started the Gaza blockade after Hamas took over, the EU supported that policy by retracting its officers.

Hamas chief Khaled Meshal rightly points out that the border should be controlled only by Egypt and the Palestines and, of course, be open.

With the total blockade of Gaza Israel has again managed to shot itself into its foot. While the "west" is used to look away from the normal Israeli disregard of human rights and its strangeling of Gaza, the total blockade and the humanitarian catastrophy following the collective punishment has renewed the understanding for the Palestinian struggle.

Smart politicians would use the new situation for talks towards a solution of the conflict. But smart politics are rare in Israel and elsewhere. So I expect something dumb and utterly disgusting to happen next.

 

Comments

So I expect something dumb and utterly disgusting to happen next.
Well they were so quick to oblige you

Israel and the United States are expected to boycott a special United Nations Human Rights Council meeting in Geneva on Wednesday to discuss the situation in the Gaza Strip, in the wake of Jerusalem’s decision to close Gaza crossings.
This would be the first time that Israel has boycotted a session of the Human Rights Council, in a sign of rising tensions between Israel and UN institutions.
The council will meet Wednesday at the request of Egypt and the Palestinian Authority, to discuss the closure of the crossings as well as Israel’s recent military strikes in Gaza.
The draft proposal submitted to the council angered Jerusalem, which views it as one-sided due to the fact that it fails to mention the massive Qassam rocket fire on Sderot and other western Negev communities.
Israel urged other countries to follow suit, although only the U.S. agreed to do so.

No doubt this is just the prologue to many more somethings dumb and utterly disgusting….

Posted by: Bea | Jan 23 2008 19:52 utc | 1

from the Guardian: “Israel expressed its concern at the latest developments and called on Egypt to restore order. “Israel has no forces in Gaza or Egypt, and the Egyptians control the border, and therefore it is the responsibility of Egypt to ensure that the border operates properly according to the signed agreements,” said Arye Mekel, a spokesman for Israel’s foreign ministry. “We expect the Egyptians to solve the problem. Obviously we are worried about the situation. It could potentially allow anybody to enter.” guardian (*to enter* is ironical: nobody wants to come in.)
Neither the US, the Arab States, the EU, the UN or anyone else will stand up to Israel, of for the Palestinians.
That is the desperate truth. All of them will make noises. Give a bit of money. Shake their heads. Even fire up their populations, who can do nothing. Posture. Avoid being accused of genocide, pandering hypocrites..
Israel: we have to defend ourselves from the rockets and the fundamentalist irrational hatred… The EU: diplomacy is needed. The US: we need to revive the roadmap and work to peace. Arab States: how disgusting, let’s buy some more arms from the US. Lebanon, Jordan, Syria: we have to see…tricky…we don’t want to be nuked…bad enough dealing with Iraq…
*Human Rights Council*: Arab states have a majority there at present. After the new set up. It was expected that Israel would withdraw.

Posted by: Tangerine | Jan 23 2008 20:28 utc | 2

A gaol break was inevitable, just as inevitable as the Mubarek ‘crackdown’ while ordinary Egyptians are doing what they can to help their brothers.
A return to the siege is unlikely as this BBC article explains in it’s inimitably biased way:
The BBC’s Tim Franks in Rafah on the Gaza-Egypt border says it will be difficult for the Egyptians to reseal the border on their own, and Hamas has very little incentive to co-operate.
Palestinians have broken through the border before, in 2005, and it was quickly resealed with barbed wire, but reports say that on this occasion two-thirds of the border wall was destroyed.

I suspect Mubarek will be a bit too nervous to have a major blood in the streets go at the Gazaains; and Israel may find this arrangement to their liking.
I imagine that if Israel is smart they will try and get Egypt to take responsibility for Gaza, to try and integrate it into Egypt, at least in the short-term, thereby cleaving off a big part of the opposition to the one sided ‘peace’ settlement. The only question is where to find the money to pay off Mubarek to accept that deal.
The beat up over the Qassam rockets can be ratcheted up and down to suit Israel’s needs. If they want to make it appear Egypt is doing well they will shut up, when they want to pressure Egypt they will beat up the rocket stories again.
Mubarek will simply ignore the Hamas infrastructure and force Gazaains to deal with Egypt’s own power structure.
This arrangement will suit amerikan pols in the short term too. They all want the ME, including and especially talk of Israel which might highlight ‘the lobby’, right off the agenda through 08.
With any sort of luck the people of Gaza may catch a break through 08. That’s what I’m hoping although there is still the chance for B to be correct and some ‘multi-lateral’ force of unwhites to be paid to waste the lot of em in a river of blood. Thankfully those multi-lateral unwhite forces are fairly busy elsewhere (Somalia) at the moment. The EU will also need to be led gently into the idea of anyone even unwhites, who are only nominally working for the EU, committing an out and out massacre. Still they will eventually come around, as they always come around in the end.
Probably sometime in 09.
What was the name of that place full of pesky muslims? Srebrenica?
It took a while but the Dutch eventually got the message. Something similar will happen in Gaza once Hilary Obama is safely ensconced in Pennsylvania Avenue.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Jan 23 2008 21:40 utc | 3

This is ot/not ot or just crazy, but does the Palestinian bounce back ie. “blowing the shit out of Egypt’s wall” represent the effects of Bernankes’s .75% cut?
Chickyog had me thinking.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Jan 23 2008 21:58 utc | 4

They blew up the wall! Horray!
Bring that wall down! And the other one too!
I am just going to be happy about that for a while.

Posted by: a swedish kind of death | Jan 23 2008 23:05 utc | 5

This is the first time in ages that I have heard a news story from Palestine that left me feeling something fundamental had changed in favour of the Palestinians. I always wondered why the Gazans didn’t do this before. I assumed that the Israelies had such strong control of the border that it was physically impossible. Still, it seemed to be that if 500,000 Palestinians just up and marched from Gaza to Egypt the IDF would be forced to slaughter thousands or let them through and lose control of the border, or most likely both would happen.
Mubarak must be nervous as all hell at the moment. He’s been given the job of cleaning this up but if he does it will be absolutely crystal clear to every Arab he’s an Israeli puppet. I wonder if his security forces would even listen to him if he gave the order to shut down the border again. If he can’t do it then conditions in Gaza may start to improve dramatically and it will be the West Bank that becomes the real ghetto. That will be very dangerous for Israel as Hamas will have been completely vindicated. Imagine if cities in the West Bank start using mass marches of tens of thousands on their wall and force the IDF to shoot them down by the hundreds?
I wonder how Israel/US/Mubarak will handle this? My guess is that they leave the Gaza border open and set up a new invisible border just inside Egypt that prevents anything actually getting to the Gazans and thereby maintaining the siege. Still its very risky for Israel to be completely dependent on the Egyptian regime in this.

Posted by: swio | Jan 24 2008 0:49 utc | 6

I am with askod, I will breath easier while it lasts.
Found via Uruknet,
The Times: Hamas ‘spent months cutting through Gaza wall in secret operation’

(snip)
Hamas, which took control of the coastal territory last June after a stand-off with Fatah, has denied that its men set off the explosions that brought down as much as two-thirds of the 12-km wall in the early hours.
But a Hamas border guard interviewed by The Times at the border today admitted that the Islamist group was responsible and had been involved for months in slicing through the heavy metal wall using oxy-acetylene cutting torches.
That meant that when the explosive charges were set off in 17 different locations after midnight last night the 40ft wall came tumbling down, leaving it lying like a broken concertina down the middle of no-man’s land as an estimated 350,000 Gazans flooded into Egypt.
(snip)

Posted by: Alamet | Jan 24 2008 1:09 utc | 7

ditto askod!

Posted by: annie | Jan 24 2008 1:27 utc | 8

askod: yes!
loving it.
oh, and my government can take their contemptible “concern” that the Gazans escaped their cage and shove it up where their heads already are, if there’s room.

Posted by: ran | Jan 24 2008 2:03 utc | 9

Comment by Aris from a thread over at Candide’s Notebooks kinda sums it up for me:

I don’t care to comment on politics anymore. It is all fucking disgusting. I don’t read it, I don’t listen to it. He said this. She said that. He said let’s fuck everyone. She said she agrees but will do it slowly and softly. Did anyone of these fucking puppets say a word about the genocide going on in Gaza? But they go to Israel, climb a mountain and proclaim that this is the land of the free, the promised land. Fuck’em all.

Posted by: ran | Jan 24 2008 3:04 utc | 10

From reading the news blogs it seems that the zionists are most discomfited by this turn of events. They have been told by “Israel Spin HQ” to play up the fact this was the egyptian border and try and blame Egypt for the existence of a wall Israel built in 2005 before exiting Gaza.
This doesn’t appear to be working, people are much more aware of the co-ordinated lies of Israel and the pro-zionist lobby now, and in fact the legion of posts all saying the same thing is undermining their point of view.
It won’t be long now (one more election cycle tops) before most amerikan pols run a mile from being identified with the Israel lobby. The money was good but it was meant to be for electioneering and if kowtowing to the zionist plan costs more votes than the AIPAC ‘donations’ can bring in, the deal becomes most unattractive.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Jan 24 2008 3:04 utc | 11

I wonder if the Israelis can get Egypt to rebuild the wall. I can bet the Muslim Brotherhood will have something to say about Mubarak doing Israel’s dirty work.
Why do I keep thinking: Warsaw Ghetto, Warsaw Ghetto uprising.

Posted by: Ensley | Jan 24 2008 4:36 utc | 12

From the Haarezt article linked in the original post;
…hours after some 200,000 Gaza residents swarmed across the border into Egypt…
I wonder if the word ‘swarm’ was used in the sense of ‘a swarm of angry hornets’ or ‘stinging bees’ or, simply, ‘filthy cockroaches’.
The use of language in describing the Pals gives a good insight into the mindset of the local media.
What chance of dignity have the Palestinians when they are subliminally thought of as insects?

Posted by: Marek Bage | Jan 24 2008 6:25 utc | 13

I haven’t been watching the western TV spin on this event closely,
but I will be very surprised if any “talking head” who wishes to keep his a her job will emphasize the obvious and quite justifiable analogy with the fall of the Berlin wall. Funny about that. But then, no one ever mentions the analogy between the U.S. wall for excluding Mexicans and the Berlin Wall either (although the Great Wall of China would be, perhaps, a more appropriate reference).

Posted by: Hannah K. O’Luthon | Jan 24 2008 6:35 utc | 14

@ 14 — Actually, Hannah, the Berlin Wall was the first comparison made on the Danish radio when the news broke that the walls had come down.
Later we saw pix of people scrambling over the corrogated metal, standing in line at stores in Egypt and coming back with food, oil, chickens, sheep, goats — everything.
The Danish news said that Murbarak had given orders to his security not to stop the people, even help them find stores. If this has any connection to facts, I can’t know, but suppose Murbarak had little choice at the moment.
Today, on the Danish TV I saw this Israli politico complaining about the fuss over the blockade — he stated as a fact that the blokade against Serbia was much had been worse than Israel’s blockade against Gaza.
In any case, the action was a stroke of genius by the Hamas, if the politicians and media whores don’t get a lid on this, Hamas may be able to change something of their image in West (not USA, of course) and bring some undertanding of the suffering of the people in Gaza.
On the Danish radio, they had a brief interview with a young man, 23, who was so excited — it was the first time in his life he had been outside Gaza.

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Jan 24 2008 12:14 utc | 15

@Marek Bage
This discourse has long been used by Israeli public officials to describe Palestinians. In a 2-second google search I was able to come up with this:
UN Economic and Social COuncil – RACISM, RACIAL DISCRIMINATION, XENOPHOBIA
AND ALL FORMS OF DISCRIMINATION
Written statement* submitted by the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies,
a non-governmental organization in special consultative status

A special report by Professor Daniel Bar-Tal of Tel Aviv University showed that Israeli school text books as well as children’s storybooks portray Palestinians and Arabs as “murderers”, “rioters”, “suspicious” and generally backward and unproductive. Direct delegitimization and negative stereotyping of Palestinians and Arabs are the rule rather than the exception in Israeli schoolbooks. Washington Report on Middle East Affairs, September 1999, pages 19-20.
This distortion is not surprising given that for years Israeli leaders have openly called the Palestinians “grasshoppers,” “two-legged animals,” “insects,” “drugged cockroaches.” In 1994, Rabbi Yaacov Perin openly declared that “One million Arabs are not worth a Jewish fingernail Kevin James, “Israel’s Apartheid Must End,” New York Daily News, December 10, 2000..” Israeli Prime Minister Menahem Begin described Palestinians in his speech to the Knesset as “beasts walking on two legs Quoted in Ammon Kapeliouk “Begin and the Beasts,” New Statesman, June 25, 1982..” For Rafael Eitan, former chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Forces, ” The only good Arab is a dead Arab.”

What Really Happened – Examples of Hate Speech – Not sure who put this site together but a lot of the quotations on it are known to me so I am linking to it.
Anyone who has lived in Israel can attest that this kind of discourse is widely prevalent there even among the highest government officials.

Posted by: Bea | Jan 24 2008 12:59 utc | 17

In this interesting story about “the day after”, on which various parties bandied out who would ultimately take responsibility for future supervision of the breached border, I found this little detail:
Hamas Payroll

A Hamas spokesman said the organization had paid 16,000 government employees early, and paid an aid stipend to 8,500 farmers so they could go shopping.

So far Hamas certainly seems to have the upper hand in strategy. They have made many brilliant moves, not the least of which is this one.

Posted by: Bea | Jan 24 2008 13:40 utc | 18

A strange justaposition in the local paper in Bingen, Germany: a headline announcing that the German Supreme Court has ruled to reinstate tax deductions for commuters, next to it a photo of Gaza refugees clambering over the demolished wall…
Just commuting to work?

Posted by: ralphieboy | Jan 24 2008 15:20 utc | 19

Now Israel is whining that if the border between Gaza and Egypt stays open, that Egypt should just take over supplying Gaza with electricity and water, etc. What a bunch of petty tyrants!

Posted by: Ensley | Jan 24 2008 16:18 utc | 20

LE TRADER S’APPELLE JEROME KERVIEL
(afp) – Le courtier, qui a fait perdre 4,9 milliards d’euros à la Société Générale s’appelle Jérôme Kerviel,…( about US$7000million)

Posted by: curious | Jan 24 2008 18:15 utc | 21

@curious – yes – how can a f…. bank have a minor dealer lose $7 billion. That again elevates my trust in the banking system …

back to Gaza – Tony Karon: Hamas Blows a Hole in Bush’s Plans

Israel, Abbas and Hamas were confronting one another in a three-way standoff in which each was obsessed with preventing any rapprochement between the other two. But Hamas has now forced the issue. The Israelis have no choice but to recognize that the group’s control of Gaza is an intractable reality, that will force the Arab world and Abbas himself to accelerate efforts to restore Palestinian unity. And Israel will have no choice but to pursue the cease-fire option offered by Hamas as the most effective means for ending rocket fire out of Gaza.
In that sense, of course, Hamas has done Israel a favor, presenting it with a fait accompli that can allow it to stand down from an unworkable and morally untenable position evolved by the dunder-headed combination of the Bush Administration and the two Ehuds, Olmert and Barak (whose return to the center stage of Israeli politics is a sure sign that Israel has run out of ideas… Next up, Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu — take that one to the bank.)
By breaking the siege, Hamas has opened the way for a range of new possibilities, including movement toward restoration of a single Palestinian government (by inviting Abbas to once again send PA units to guard the border with Egypt), cooperation with Egypt over managing Gaza’s affairs, and even movement towards a cease-fire with the Israelis.

Well – lets see what Egypt does. Mubarak certainly has a problem now. When he renews the blockade on Gaza, he may well lose his job as dictator. When he does not, Bush will piss on him.

Posted by: b | Jan 24 2008 18:49 utc | 22

That there are even intimations of Israel cutting off or getting ‘rid’ of Gaza is very interesting. for ex. reuters
Sharp lesson: getting rid of the people slowly means you may lose the territory as well. (Ppl will blame Sharon for settler withdrawal.) Of course, the most recent example of successful ethnic cleansing is Kosovo – but that, of course, was accomplished by ‘muslims’ with world power backing. Israel has made a strong-ish stance against Kosovo independence, clashing with the US on this point, aligning with Russia.
Another, related, topic: from Y net,
Study: US Jews distance themselves from Israel link
Also, An Israeli Jewish people policy y net again
…and from the Jewish Agency for Israel : “Some 2.5 million young people are losing their connection to Judaism as they gradually distance themselves from their communities, their heritage and our people. Around the world, this connection literally hangs in the balance. And if they are at risk, so is the Jewish future.” link
While the US support, ideological, political, financial, logistical – unwavering -, for Israel and its lunatic, racist, genocidal, undemocratic, ultimately precarious existence can be viewed in various ways, the whole situation is so dependent on myths, skewed beliefs, heartfelt but empty principles, hype and ideological extortion, media manipulation, and more, that the result is a great vulnerability for Israel.
‘Image’ and pious yet empty adherence are a mainstay. Losing even an inch there is frightening, as Israel very well knows. Once the wall is breached (sic), the smoke clears, and ppl can come to see beyond the hysterical, paranoid, victimized defense – change can be swift and startling, or slow but inexorable, just like for movie stars… I expect the slow but steady.
Now the Palestinians should blast some of the interior walls. Heh, that’s different…the border with Egypt is nevertheless controlled by foreign instances, etc.

Posted by: Tangerine | Jan 24 2008 19:07 utc | 23

Here is another somewhat less rosy prism through which to view these events:
The Weakest Link

By evening time, the mood started to change. Some senior security officials started to like the situation: This is an exceptional opportunity to shift responsibility for the Gaza Strip to Egypt. Let them provide food, electricity, water, and fuel. The wet Israeli dream may come true.
After all, besides the Egyptian government, which shot itself in the foot, everyone is pleased: Businesses in Rafah are flourishing and in Gaza the price of a cigarette pack dropped by 80%. Israel has been presented with a golden opportunity for diplomatic gains: Yesterday, in fact, was the beginning of the real disengagement from Gaza.
Moreover, yesterday Hamas caused an absolute and complete disconnection between the Gaza economy and the West Bank economy, ahead of the emergence of two separate Palestinian entities. The moment huge quantities of goods entered the Strip without coordinating it with Israel, all duty agreements were in fact breached. From now on, Gazans would not be able to export even a matchbox to Israel or to the West Bank.
The weakest link: Egypt
The moment Israeli officials realized the picture may not be so grim, the decision was made to keep up the pressure: Fuel will continue to be supplied to the required minimum, based on the High Court’s decision; medicine and food will continue to go in based on last week’s parameters.
Defense officials reached the conclusion that it’s all about physics, and that Gaza is like a toothpaste tube. You squeeze it powerfully and the paste comes out of the weakest side – Egypt.

Yet another dehumanizing metaphor to add to the list. Humanity as mere toothpaste. But this is how they think. The worrier part of me thinks of Israel seeing one-fifth of Gaza’s population vacating in a matter of hours and getting all kinds of dangerous ideas, particularly given that there are seriously rich resources of natural gas off the shores of Gaza. This all seems to have happened too easily somehow… We shall see where it all goes.

Posted by: Bea | Jan 24 2008 19:22 utc | 24

From now on, Gazans would not be able to export even a matchbox to Israel or to the West Bank.
The Gazans have not been able to export much to Israel or W/B for some time. So I cannot see such a consequence would be very grave. The issue would be whether they will be able to export to Europe through al-Arish or Port Said.
OK, all this is going in the sense desired by the right wing in Israel, of splitting Gaza from the West Bank. If I were King Abdullah in Jordan, I would be quaking in my boots over whether the West Bankers might do the same across the Jordan. There is so little water in the Jordan these days, that you should be able to wade across it. The proportion of Palestinians in Jordan is massive…

Posted by: Alex | Jan 24 2008 21:19 utc | 25

As I was just saying above, about that natural gas in Gaza…
Gaza’s Natural Gas

Israel has dramatically intensified its military campaign in the Gaza Strip, stepping up air strikes and shelling of the beleaguered coastal strip. UN officials and human rights advocates warn that Gazans now face a humanitarian disaster of unprecedented magnitude with widespread disease and famine rapidly becoming reality as electricity generation, water supply, sewage treatment, food supplies and medical services grind to a halt as a consequence of the ever tighter Israeli blockade.
Israel claims its recent moves are retaliation for continued rocket attacks originating in Gaza that despite their consistency cause scant damage and few actual casualties. But the reasons may include motivations with roots back in 2000, when the British firm British Gas Group (BG) discovered proven natural gas reserves of at least 1.3 trillion cubic meters beneath Gazan territorial waters worth nearly $4 billion.
The Palestinian Investment Fund (PIF), a financial holdings company owned primarily by independent Palestinian shareholders, is investing in the project and heads the negotiations in coordination with Mahmoud Abbas’ government in the West Bank. BG won a majority stake in the concession to develop the Gaza Marine Field and originally targeted Egypt for the sale of the natural gas. But pressure from then-British Prime Minister Tony Blair led the company to redirect its efforts toward Israel and develop plans for an underwater pipeline that would transport the gas to an Israeli refinery at Ashkelon. That deal could have eventually provided Israel with approximately 10 percent of its annual energy requirement, and would have generated approximately $1 billion for the PIF. The Hamas election victory in 2006 put all that in jeopardy….
In January, BG announced it was pulling the plug on negotiations with Israel due to the long impasse, and was again considering Egypt as a buyer. The Egyptian option includes liquefying up to a third of the gas for export to the US and Europe. BG announced plans to close its office near Tel Aviv at the end of January and sell its share in Israel’s offshore Med Yavne natural gas field. Since the announcement, Israel has radically expanded its sanctions, cut fuel shipments entirely and stepped up its military campaign. Increased air strikes and use of internationally proscribed tank shell ammunition has led to a drastic increase in civilian deaths and injuries in hopes of eroding support for Hamas in Gaza. Combined with dangerous shortages of food, water and basic supplies, the coastal region has fallen into catastrophe. Israel and the United States refuse to acknowledge the growing chorus of international condemnation. Appeals from Ramallah lack the popular mobilization needed to effectively advocate an end to the Israeli siege. Regardless of the future of the Gaza Marine Field, Gazans can be sure they will be denied any relief it might once have afforded them.

Food for thought. With this crew, it is almost always, in the last analysis, about some kind of energy resource…

Posted by: Bea | Jan 25 2008 1:29 utc | 26

I had the strangest experience last night. I woke up in from sleep in the middle of the night and had a physical brain epiphany. Some part of my brain went “click” like the crisp sound of a computer keyboard button engaging and disengaging. Then two words flashed in slow, sequential sequence:
Iraq.Gaza.
Then more:
Afghanistan.Iraq.Lebanon.Gaza.
Then: The.Shock.Doctrine.
Maybe I’m thick, but somehow I had never placed Gaza in this mental category before. I’d always thought it was about the Israel-Palestine conflict solely, about demographics, about securing the Jewish state. What happened to me in the middle of the night is that it hit me that Gaza has been subjected to the Shock Doctrine treatment for the past 2 years or so, and that it’s all about this gas resource — in addition to being about demographic war. But that could be the secondary consideration, and the gas deal the primary. Everything else is kabuki – including Annapolis, etc etc.
The other piece of it that suddenly fell into place in my mind is the Egypt piece. Why has Egypt been working behind the scenes in these intriguing ways to hand Hamas public relations victories that would score points with the street? Such as the episode with the pilgrims, this one with the wall? Why? Perhaps because, according to the above piece, BG has turned its back on Israel and reverted to courting Egypt as a buyer. Therefore (it suddenly struck me), Egypt has every vested interest in making sure, thank you very much, that Hamas stays in power — so Israel loses out on this deal. It kept bothering me — how on earth were the Gazans able to cut away at that fence on the Egyptian border for months without being detected and stopped? It’s impossible that there was not collusion from the other side. How did they have cash on hand to pay everyone early so they could go shopping? From Egypt? Maybe, just maybe… Or does this make no sense at all because Egypt has its own intense internal threats from the large and well-established Muslim Brotherhood, and bolstering Hamas might have dangerous domestic repercussions? I don’t know, but it suddenly seemed to make a lot of sense in the middle of the night. That “ho hum oh well, stuff happens” reaction to hundreds of thousands of desperate souls breaching a border??
And this explains, of course, why Tony Blair was so enthusiastic about rushing over and installing himself in Jerusalem to “help the economy.” His own, that is, bloody liar. Bliar.
It also means that the PA “government” in Ramallah is in full cahoots with this scheme, for whatever reason — and that they have become part of the Israel/neocon axis in even a much deeper way than I had previously considered, working quite consciously and deliberately against their own people’s interests in order to smash Hamas for the purposes of handing their masters the gas deal (and taking a cut for themselves, of course).
So if I am right, and this is another application of the Shock Doctrine, expect the same template: Weaken the population by placing every possible strain on it that you can, make it desperate, soften up the ground by killing off as many leaders as you can, then invade (that’s the IDF’s job of course), seize power, and install a puppet who will do your bidding and secure you permanent access to the resource. In Lebanon, in Nahr al-Bared, I believe it was the same template in a slightly different flavor — the goal was to secure the air force base which would in turn secure a future pipeline from Iraq to the sea. There has to be some energy access reason why the US is so intent on controlling everything in Lebanon.
Maybe it is totally obvious, but to me in the middle of the night, it seemed like an epiphany. They are all of a piece, all examples of application of the same blueprint in slightly different forms. Except in Gaza it appears to be backfiring rather spectacularly. And it means that it would really be in Hamas’ most urgent interests to stop firing those damned silly rockets rather immediately.

Posted by: Bea | Jan 25 2008 12:57 utc | 27

Egypt Moves Back into Line
Here goes Egypt getting back into line.
And then there is this: Egyptian-US Relations Appear Cooler

Egypt historically has been a top U.S. Mideast ally. But growing frustration in the U.S. over Egypt’s lack of democratic reforms, inability to rein in the Palestinian militant Hamas and prevent weapons from being smuggled via border tunnels to the Gaza Strip has soured ties.
At the same time, Egypt’s role as the key Mideast mediator has seen its status slip to another power player — Saudi Arabia.
Perhaps the most bitter issue is Washington’s move for the first time to put conditions on the $2 billion in aid — including $1.3 billion in military assistance — that Washington gives annually to Egypt, the second-largest recipient of U.S. aid after Israel.
Congress and Bush — who signed the bill into law last month — agreed to withhold $100 million from Egypt until it stops smuggling, implements judicial reforms and curbs police torture, which human rights groups say is systematic.
There is one loophole: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice can waive the withholding if she determines that it’s in the interest of national security to do so.
Still, the conditions have angered Egyptian officials. Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit has accused Israel of stirring up American lawmakers against Egypt.

Not sure how all that fits into this picture but sure that it does, somehow.

Posted by: Bea | Jan 25 2008 13:09 utc | 28

I should read the full piece before I link to it… According to the Al-Jazeera piece linked to above, as punishment for the border breach, the US has now finalized the $100 million cut in aid to Egypt that had been only tentatively considered beforehand. Whether that is accurate or not, I don’t know. But it is all very interesting.

Posted by: Bea | Jan 25 2008 13:16 utc | 29

Tensions Build at Border
Thousands of Palestinians are massed wanting to cross over; Egyptians are starting to stop them. Frustration is growing. Palestinians have breached additional holes elsewhere in the wall and are continuing to cross there.
Haaretz Editorial excoriates the Gaza closure policy. The Siege of Gaza Has Failed

Posted by: Bea | Jan 25 2008 13:23 utc | 30

Ah yes, here we go:
Israel’s Rumor Mill: Gaza Operation in the Works

Here is the rumor that was whispered this week, even before the Palestinian masses broke through the border fence in Rafah: The Israel Defense Forces will soon embark on a broad ground operation in the Gaza Strip, and thus finally deal with the Qassam threat to Sderot. The planned date sounds logical: It’s the same day of the year on which the army completed its preparations for a similar move (which was not carried out) in 2007. Even the operation’s secret code name, which was revealed to journalists, is the right one. But there is one problem with the report: Senior IDF officials say they have not received any instructions to prepare for the major operation at the time that has been specifically mentioned. [So is it a politically inspired rumor only?]
The purpose behind the leak is linked to pre-Winograd fever. According to this logic, if a major campaign is expected in the near future, it will be necessary to consider whether it might not be better to opt for staying with a political team that is more experienced, cautious and sober after being “burned” in Lebanon.

This article goes on to provide an in-depth look at the internal jockeying that is going on in Israeli government circles prior to the release of the Winograd Report at the end of this month, which will be sharply critical of Prime Minister Olmert and others for the 2006 Lebanon War. Olmert is known to be fighting for his political life right now, which is another reason why an all-out assault on Gaza would probably be a welcome distraction.

Posted by: Bea | Jan 25 2008 13:33 utc | 31

Just a little googling on the natural gas bit out of curiosity:
BG Explains Decision to Close Israel Office

Jan 17, 2008 — Last week, BG Group announced the closure of its office in Israel, after decided to call off the negotiations. The company added that it would continue to monitor developments in the Israeli market. Under the deal, 15% of BG Group’s natural gas field offshore from Gaza was due to be marketed in Israel and to the power station in Gaza.
Barron said that Israel refused to promise the Palestinian Authority not to disrupt the gas supply to Gaza. “The Palestinian Authority wanted an Israeli commitment not to disrupt the gas supply to Gaza even before Hamas rose to power. The Israeli government would not agree, and then Hamas rose to power in Gaza, which complicated matters. The Palestinian Authority wanted an Israeli guarantee not to disrupt the gas supply. There was also no agreement on the issue of money transfers from Israel to the Palestinian Authority.”

BG to Close Israel Office

Jan 9, 2008 — BG Group is to consider again an option to sell its Gaza natural gas through Egypt, after a collapse of talks to commercialize it in Israel, a person familiar with the situation said Tuesday.
Last month, BG said it had reached an impasse in talks with Israel to pipe gas from its Gaza fields to Israel as the two parties disagreed on a range of issues including price.
As a result, BG said Tuesday it intends to close its office in Israel Jan. 31, though it will keep its representation in Ramallah, West Bank.
“BG also intends to relinquish its (35%) equity in, and operatorship of, the Med Yavne license, offshore Israel,” the company said.
Over a year ago, BG held talks with the Palestinians and Egypt to export future output to the U.S. and Europe after being processed as liquefied natural gas in Egypt – an option that could now be revived. A BG spokesman said the company is considering its options.

Below is an article from the Jerusalem Post whose link will simply not copy and now it says the article has been moved elsewhere but the new link says “not available” or “busy” so I am posting the whole piece as I’m out of time this morning for this:

The $4 billion worth of natural gas that BG Group Plc controls off the Gaza Strip coast will not be sold to Israel as the company officially ended negotiations on Thursday, citing insurmountable differences on several key issues.
“We came to a point where we had not been making any progress and it was clear that we were not going to close the differences that we had regarding key issues,” a high-ranking BG official told The Jerusalem Post. “We have been negotiating throughout the fall and the issues of price, the amount of gas to be supplied to the Gaza Strip and a funds flow arrangement with the Palestinian Authority had not gotten any closer to being solved.”
The estimated 1 trillion cubic meters of gas is located approximately 36 kilometers off of the Gaza coast, in an area that was designated as PA territory following the Oslo Accords. The British energy giant purchased the rights to the field in 2000.
According to the original bilateral arrangement between Israel and the PA, some 60 percent of the revenues from the sale of the gas would have gone to BG; 30% to BG’s partner in the deal, the British energy company CCC; and 10% of the revenue, estimated to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars a year, was to be designated for the PA’s Palestinian Investment Fund, under the auspices of the office of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas.
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The deal became complicated in June when Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip and subsequently declared itself to be the rightful owners of the gas field. Had Israel and BG reached an agreement on price, the two would have still had to construct a plan that would exclude Hamas from the deal since none of the parties wants to be involved in funding the terrorist organization.
Price, however, was the primary sticking point in Israel’s failure to reach an agreement with BG.
In September, BG officials accused the Israeli government of dragging its feet in the ongoing talks over the purchase of natural gas from the company’s Gaza Marine gas field and said it only would wait another “two to three months” before proceeding with its alternative plan to sell the gas to Egypt.
“No one can accuse us of being impatient – we have been waiting for the Israelis to make a serious offer, but our patience can only be stretched so far,” BG Vice President Nigel Shaw told the Post at the time.
The longer the government took to complete the deal, the larger the price gap became between what BG was asking and Israel was offering for the gas.
Although the company only publicly broadcast its decision to halt negotiations Thursday, BG had informed the Israeli government of its decision in early December, according to a BG spokesperson. Government officials, however, requested that the company wait to go public with the news until Thursday, the day of a scheduled High Court ruling on the petition that BG faces from Yam Thetis, seeking to block the government’s plan to buy BG gas. That decision, however, will not come out until sometime next week, the BG spokesperson said.
Yam Thetis contends the government is seeking to negotiate the purchase of additional natural gas without first opening a tender, but rather negotiating solely with BG, said Delek Drilling LP, one of the partners in Yam Thetis, in a statement earlier this year.
“The petition asks that the court rule that all negotiations or any contact made at any time between government representatives and British Gas International Ltd. concerning the purchase of natural gas were done without proper authority and against the law,” Yam Thetis added.
Regardless of the court’s ruling, however, BG seems to have permanently closed the door on selling the gas to Israel.
“Right now there is no possibility that we are going to re-enter negotiations with Israel,” the BG official said. “We are disappointed that it did not happen – it was a large waste of our time and effort, and now we will consider our other options, including piping it to Egypt.”
BG has surveyed a pipeline to Egypt and is ready to proceed with selling the gas to Israel’s southern neighbor, the company said.
Israel began talks with BG in February 2006 and said in May of that year that it expected to buy 1.5 billion cubic meters of gas from BG annually starting in 2009. Soon after, BG broke off talks with Israel and said that it preferred bringing gas to Egypt to be liquefied and then shipped by tankers to the US, Europe and the Far East.
Talks resumed in July 2006 and, in April of this year, the cabinet voted 21-to-three to grant a negotiating team formal permission to hold talks with BG on the purchase of the gas.
BG’s decision to withdraw from negotiations comes at a time when the Infrastructures Ministry is pushing to increase the country’s natural gas supply.

I guess if the Israeli government was dragging its feet so bad it can’t have really cared all that much about this deal… it seems that my analysis above is incorrect.

Posted by: Bea | Jan 25 2008 14:25 utc | 32

kudos for your epiphanies bea, many thanks

Posted by: annie | Jan 25 2008 15:36 utc | 33

Well, not sure if they were worth anything but I wanted to share them anyway!

Posted by: Bea | Jan 25 2008 15:48 utc | 34

thanks bea – i’d encourage you to write up a feature post sometime

Posted by: b real | Jan 25 2008 16:29 utc | 35

@Bea – 27
I don’t think Egypt helped Hamas. Mubarak is quite afraid that Hamas could work with the Egyptian Muslim brotherhood. That would be deadly, at least political, for him.
The shock doctrine doesn’t really fit to the situation.
Interestingly the U.S. is said to have withdrawn its troops from the Sinai. It is only one batallion (~400 troops) but it was positioned near Gaza. Someone imagined the situtation of Hamas holding U.S. hostages …
I find an Israeli invasion of Gaza highly unlikely. It would get bloody for the Israeli side (nobody cares for the Palistiniens) and Olmert would lose his job over it.
On blowtorching the metal “wall” – from the pictures I have seen those were a few hundred yards. A weeks work, not months. Still one has to really pull the hat before Hamas – a superb operation. The Israeli secret services seem to be in failure mode like the Israeli army. They have total technical information control on Gaza and didn’t catch this.
Helena Cobban, who really knows Gaza and the relevent people, has many thoughts on the issue. Too much to copy so you will have to go to JustWorldNews and read the last three/four posts yourself.

Posted by: b | Jan 25 2008 19:41 utc | 36

Not the wealth of revelations I had hoped for, but it is a decent account of the developments as seen from the Egyptian side of the border:
Al-Ahram – Breaking out
And, Bea, to go with your explorations above, Match made in heaven

Egyptian-British collaboration in the petroleum sector is a shining success story of fruitful partnership

So chockful of praise that I am wondering if it isn’t secretly an advertorial for BP…

Posted by: Alamet | Jan 26 2008 1:18 utc | 37

Then there is this –
‘Breakout into Israel’ ahead

A SENIOR Hamas official warned yesterday that the next breakout from the Gaza Strip could be into Israel, with 500,000 Palestinians attempting to march towards the towns and villages from which they or their parents fled or were expelled 60 years ago.
“This is not an imaginary scenario and many Palestinians would be prepared to sacrifice their lives,” said Ahmed Youssef, political adviser to Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniya.
(snip)

Posted by: Alamet | Jan 26 2008 1:21 utc | 38

with 500,000 Palestinians attempting to march towards the towns and villages from which they or their parents fled or were expelled 60 years ago.
Ghandi would be proud …

Posted by: b | Jan 26 2008 7:57 utc | 39