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OT 07-85
Open thread – your comments, news & views are welcome …
a surprise to come across this syndicated opinion piece in the western press on xmas day, even if it simplifies the situation & flippantly assigns the blame to the islamic courts union for their woes b/c of their choice of names…
CIA behind Somalia’s bloody occupation by Ethiopian troops
On Friday, it will be is exactly a year since Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, fell to Ethiopian troops and the occupation has been one of the most brutal on record. The resistance started at once, and Ethiopian counter-insurgency tactics are not gentle.
As early as last April, Germany’s ambassador to Somalia, Walter Lindner, wrote a public letter condemning the indiscriminate use of air strikes and heavy artillery in densely populated parts of Mogadishu, the systematic rape of women and even the bombing of hospitals. By now, the Ethiopian army’s attempts to terrorize the residents of Mogadishu into submission have driven 600,000 of them – 60 percent of the population – to flee the city.
The Ethiopians and their local allies indignantly deny these figures, but they come from the United Nations aid coordinator for Somalia, Eric Laroche, and the makeshift camps along the roads leading away from Mogadishu are there for all to see. It is, says Laroche, the worst humanitarian crisis in Africa, worse even than Darfur. But “since it is in Somalia, no one cares.”
You will notice that some of the phrases used above do not appear in the agency reports about Somalia. The wire services do not talk about an Ethiopian occupation of Somalia, and they refer to the local Somali collaborators as the “transitional federal government,” or TGF. This is mainly in deference to the United States, which organized and backed the Ethiopian invasion of Somalia.
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The people of Mogadishu, enjoying their first taste of normality in 15 years, overwhelmingly supported the UIC, but the United States decided it must be overthrown. To do the job, Washington turned to its close ally Ethiopia, Somalia’s perennial enemy. The Ethiopians, who have no interest in a stable and strong Somalia, were happy to oblige – and for diplomatic cover, the U.S. could use the “transitional federal government” of Somalia.
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The TFG set up in the town of Baidoa in early 2006, and promptly went to war with the Union of Islamic Courts that controlled the capital. Since it had only about 5,000 soldiers of its own, the TFG depended from the start on far larger numbers of Ethiopian troops to do the actual fighting. Large numbers of government members resigned as it became clear that the TFG had fallen into the hands of the Central Intelligence Agency and the Ethiopians, but a force of about 20,000 Ethiopian troops (with some U.S. air support) fought its way into Mogadishu a year ago.
With the occupation of Mogadishu, the interval of peace ended, and the past year’s fighting has driven more than half the city’s population into flight. The TFG has been permanently discredited by its link to the hated Ethiopians, but it will probably take more years of war to end the occupation, and a lot more Somalis will die.
as a companion piece, for something else you don’t see anything on, check out
sourcewatch: Select Armor, Inc.
Select Armor is a private military corporation based in Virginia. It describes itself as “…a woman-owned enterprise HQ in The Plains, VA with offices in Santa Fe Springs, CA, Jebel Ali, United Arab Emirates, Salzburg, Austria, and Baghdad, Iraq whose core team competency is Force Protection technologies, Security and Emergency Preparedness, Tactical and CBRN training.”
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Africa Confidential reported in September 2006 that the company had
“…been planning military operations in support of President Abdullahi Yusuf’s Transitional Federal Government in Somalia and raising questions about an attack on Mogadishu, according to documents obtained by Africa Confidential. The documents refer to Uganda’s willingness to secure arms supplies using its own end-user certificates (in contravention of the UN arms embargo) and makes disparaging remarks about ‘the fucks’ in the United Nations who have been ‘snooping around’ Select Armor’s personnel.”
The Observer also saw the leaked emails, and reported the contents of one sent on June 16, 2006 by chief executive Michele Ballarin:
including Chris Farina of the Florida-based military company ATS Worldwide. Ballarin said: ‘Boys: Successful meeting with President Abdullay Yussef [sic] and his chief staff personnel in Nairobi, Kenya on Tuesday … where he invited us to his private hotel suite flacked by security detail … He has appointed is chief of presidential protocol as our go to during this phase.’
“She refers to one ‘closed-door meeting’ with a senior UN figure and mentions there are ‘a number of Brit security firms’ also looking to get involved. Ballarin claimed she has been given ‘carte blanche’ to use three bases in Somalia ‘and the air access to reach them’. She then suggests that the CIA have been kept informed of the plans. Ballarin states: ‘My contact whom we discussed from the agency side requested an in-person meeting with me. I arrived in New York at 2340 last night and was driven to Virginia – arriving at 0200 today.'”
Africa Confidential gave some more details about the planning of the alleged operation:
* “Select Armor claim to have briefed” Ugandan Minister of Security Amama Mbabazi and Intelligence Director Brigadier Noble Mayombo.
* Ballarin also claimed “…to have secured meetings with the UN’s Colonel Harry Haen and Sidi Zahab”.
* Ballarin wrote that President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda “…put us up in the facility next to his compound”.
* “Select’s main contact in the Somali government appears to be Minister of Interior (a former US marine and son of the late General Mohamed Farah Aydeed) Hussein Mohamed Aydeed, who is code-named ‘Alpha’. President Museveni provides accommodation for the Aydeed family in Kampala.”
* Select’s General Douglas Eaton “…was cited as handling wire transfers of money to fund the operation.”
Ballarin was allegedly less than grateful for the hospitality shown to her by President Museveni. She declared that “Kampala is a real shithole”, and complained that in the accommodation provided by Museveni “…we had no hot water during our five days.” She also branded Somalia’s Prime Minister Mohamed Ali Gedi as the ‘Prime Sinister’.
Posted by: b real | Dec 27 2007 6:16 utc | 17
not sure exactly what occurred wednesday but
un: UN mission calls on Ethiopia, Eritrea to show restraint after shooting incident
27 December 2007 – The United Nations peacekeeping mission monitoring the ceasefire between Ethiopia and Eritrea today called on both sides to show maximum restraint after a shooting incident in the border area where the two countries fought a two-year war that ended in 2000.
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The UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) reported that its Indian Battalion Post and Military Observer Team Site at Tsorena inside the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) on the Eritrea side heard firing sounds in the general direction of Gergera, southeast of Tsorena yesterday.
The Team Site and post patrol could not go to the scene due to permanent restriction on access to the area, but UNMEE has been in contact with both parties, who recognised that the incident had occurred, and is investigating it.
eritrea’s ministry of information, shabait: TPLF’s small-scale attack in Eritrean sovereign territory meets with failure
Asmara, 26 December 2007 – In continuation to its ongoing provocations against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Eritrea, the TPLF regime has unleashed a relatively small scale attack at exactly 03:00 am local time yesterday December 25 in Southern Tsorona area of the Southern region upon dispatched Eritrean militias and security forces assigned to patrol the Security Zone, but was met with utter failure, Colonel Zekarias Okbaghabir Commissioner to the Eritrean Ethiopian Peace Keeping Coordination Commission disclosed in a press statement to ERINA in the evening hours today.
The statement further noted that the TPLF regime had planted land mines during the past three days at Igri-Mekhel area in which a peace keeping vehicle was met with casualty.
ethiopia’s ministry of foreign affairs (via nazret): Eritrea accuses Ethiopia of border attack, Ethiopia denies
The version of the story about an incident along Ethiopia Eritrea border recounted by Eritrea on December 26, 2007 is not based on what really took place. There was an incident, it is true. But the incident is of Eritrea’s making which is being looked into. It is possible that it may have been a result of an accidental encounter between the reconnaissance missions of the two parties. The claim that there was an attack by Ethiopia is just pure fabrication.
operating from a history of the level of spin & propaganda that has flowed from both regimes in this ongoing conflict over the years, it’s probably a safe bet to not fully believe either one for the time being.
[interesting sidenote – tigrayan peoples liberation front‘s meles zenawi’s mother is from eritrea & eritrean peoples liberation front‘s isayas afeworki’s is from tigray]
several western media sources really seem to have been helping to increase the tensions (e.g., the economist) but, as a recent oxford analytica analysis of the top hotspots in the HOA pointed out
Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea spiked dangerously in 2007. A large-scale military build-up on the border has placed the two in very close proximity, increasing the risk of accidental incidents and escalation. The final date for agreement on demarcation of the border passed without an accord in November.
The military stand-off will continue, and hostilities will continue to be played out through regional and local proxies. Conflict is not inevitable, as both governments have reasons to avoid war
for ethiopia, there’s the growing economy & foreign investments, not to mention the tight relationship at the moment w/ the u.s.
for eritrea, oxford analytica forsees that “Should war break out with Ethiopia, Eritrea will be thrown into a state of major upheaval, most likely resulting in regime replacement, insurgency and widespread displacement.”
during the last border war, which reportedly claimed some 70,000 to 100,000 lives, as the late ethiopian historian harold marcus wrote: “Both Addis Abeba and Asmera wanted to settle the conflict, but neither side was willing to admit defeat or wrongdoing. They turned facts on their head to prove their blamelessness, often reducing rationality to absurdity.”
let’s hope the absurdity stays w/i the realm of rhetoric
Posted by: b real | Dec 28 2007 6:54 utc | 28
pinr: Somalia’s New Reality: A Strategic Overview
There is little likelihood that Somalia’s failed transitional institutions can be made to function, much less mesh with one another, in the foreseeable future.
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Meanwhile, the militant elements of the Courts movement and disaffected clans have carried on a steady armed insurgency against the occupiers, and the political wing of the Courts has formed an alliance with other anti-T.F.G. elements from exile in Eritrea. At present, Addis Ababa — strained by the insurgency, a separatist movement in its ethnic Somali Ogaden region and border tensions with Eritrea — is increasingly desperate to end its occupation and has begun to criticize the donor powers for failing to support stabilization in Somalia adequately.
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..PINR’s monitoring of daily reports of violent events confirms that despite continued Ethiopian attempts to crush it, the insurgency continues unabated and has spread to most of the regions of Somalia south of the sub-state of Puntland.
More significant than the mere continuation of the insurgency are signs that the opposition has begun to coalesce around a more militant line emphasizing armed resistance. Warnings from T.F.G. officials that the Y.M.M. and the Courts’ leadership had healed their rift were confirmed through December.
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Whether or not the military option is timely for the Courts, the fact that it is being taken makes it nearly impossible for [recently-appointed PM] Hussein to woo the opposition into his government and thereby satisfy the donor powers, which want to isolate the militants by co-opting the moderate opposition.
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After a year of occupying Somalia … Addis Ababa — faced with the T.F.G.’s implosion and the persistence of the insurgency — is losing patience with the donor powers over their failure to give sufficient support for the expansion of a small and ineffective African Union peacekeeping mission (AMISOM) in Mogadishu, and appears to be considering a policy shift that would distance it from the T.F.G., over which it no longer has preponderant influence.
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Addis Ababa has made it clear that it is not a reluctant ally of the donor powers, to which it is tied by a marriage of convenience that is under severe strain. Although Addis Ababa, which is itself financially dependent on donor powers, is unlikely to make any precipitous policy shift, it is preparing an exit strategy. Ethiopia’s faltering commitment does not bode well for Hussein’s prospects of staying afloat.
the indian ocean newsletter (via ogaden online): Stay or not to stay in Somalia
When he speaks in public on the subject, the Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi denies that his country’s troops are having a hard time bringing the Islamic rebels in Somalia to heel. He even accuses United Nations agencies of not having been “positive” enough on the role played by the Ethiopian forces there. However, the internal discussions within the Ethiopian military executive are far less optimistic.
On 11 December 2007, from 11 in the morning until well after nightfall, Meles Zenawi held a meeting with his generals behind closed doors to evaluate the situation in Somalia. Those present included the army chief of staff Samora Yunis. According to information obtained by The Indian Ocean Newsletter, several participants in this conclave reached the conclusion that the Ethiopian army is faltering through the poor quality of its intelligence sources on the situation in Somalia. The morale of Ethiopian troops on the ground is at a low ebb in the face of repeated attacks by insurgents and the Somalian Transitional Federal Government’s inability to cope.
A few generals went as far as to suggest withdrawing the Ethiopian troops, at least from certain neighbourhoods in Mogadishu. One of the participants even said that in the event of a full retreat, the Ethiopian servicemen should be disarmed, in order to avert a possible mutiny. But the majority of the generals present in the meeting rejected this proposal. They pointed out that disarming an elite force would have a detrimental effect on the morale of the rest of the army and so cause even more problems. In the end, nothing was decided and no date set for a further meeting on this subject.
bbc, on friday: Ethiopia leaves key Somali town
Ethiopian troops have withdrawn from a key town in central Somalia.
Islamist insurgents say they now control Guriel, where Ethiopia had a big military base to secure the road linking the two countries.
A BBC correspondent in Somalia says it is not clear why the Ethiopian troops withdrew without any fighting.
Guriel was a stronghold of the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which lost power to Ethiopian-backed government troops a year ago this week.
The BBC’s Ayanleh Hussein in Guriel says residents have been cheering the Ethiopians’ departure.
During the occupation the local hospital was out of use as it was used as the Ethiopians’ military base, he says.
islam online: Somali Courts Seize More Towns
MOGADISHU — Islamic Courts fighters have seized control of two key towns in south-central Somalia, forcing Ethiopian troops to withdraw from the region, witnesses said on Saturday, December 29.
“Ethiopian troops left their only camp near the Baladweyn city (the capital of Hiiran region) before dawn,” Magan Ahmed, a businessman in the Hiran region, told IslamOnline.net.
“I think they went to the direction of the border between Somalia and Ethiopia.”
Islamic Courts fighters also took over Guriel town, some 300 kilometers (188 miles) north of the capital Mogadishu.
“The Ethiopian forces withdrew from the town overnight and now I can see the former Islamic courts fighters,” said Mohamed Haji Elmi, a tribal leader.
Backed by the United States, the Ethiopian army invaded Somalia last year to topple the Islamic Courts at the request of the weak interim government.
The Islamic Courts, which ruled Somalia for six months after routing a Washington-backed alliance of warlords, managed to briefly restore unprecedented order and stability on most of the Somali territories after more than 15 years of unrest.
But since their ouster, Somalia has descended into chaos with almost daily attacks against Ethiopian troops and government forces.
Ahmed, the businessman, said the growing influence of the Islamic Courts in the central areas has forced the withdrawal of the Ethiopian troops.
“Now there is no Ethiopian soldiers in the central regions of Somalia,” he said.
Somali experts have told IOL that the Islamic Courts fighters have grown more powerful in recent months, regaining control of at least one-third of Somalia thanks to sophisticated attacks and unified ranks in the face of the weak government.
European diplomatic sources also told IOL that several Arab heavyweights have changed hearts after an initial support for Ethiopian presence in Somalia and are diplomatically and financially supporting the Somali resistance.
Posted by: b real | Dec 30 2007 5:12 utc | 40
bits & pieces on the situation on the kenyan elections. sorry, not enough time to construct & fill out a smooth narrative from them.
telegraph: Kenya could be facing its greatest crisis
It is no exaggeration to say that Kenya is potentially facing its most serious crisis since gaining independence from Britain in 1963.
The prospect for serious violence between the country’s two most traditionally antagonistic tribes, Mr Kibaki’s Kikuyu and the Luo, led by his challenger Raila Odinga, is worryingly high.
Luos, marginalised since independence, have reason to feel aggrieved. Thanks to an alliance that Mr Odinga built with other tribes, they felt that this was their best and possibly last chance of taking power.
The farcical nature of the vote will only heighten their disappointment. The electoral commission initially claimed that roughly a quarter of returning officers disappeared for 36 hours without announcing results and had switched off their mobile phones.
When results did finally emerge, Mr Odinga saw a one million vote lead overturned.
Opinion polls showed that the contest was always going to be close, but if the official results are correct, Kenyans voted in an inexplicably bizarre manner.
After turfing out 20 of Mr Kibaki’s cabinet ministers and reducing his party to a rump in the simultaneous parliamentary poll, they apparently voted in an entirely different manner in the presidential race.
Apart from an unusually high turn-out in some of Mr Kibaki’s strongholds (sometimes more than 100 per cent ), the president then appeared to have won many more votes in some constituencies than first reported.
the nation (nairobi): EU Observers Doubt Presidential Result
The European Union election observers have expressed doubts over the outcome of the presidential race.
A statement this evening from the EU Observer Mission doubted the credibility of the tallying process for the presidential votes.
Here is the full text of the statement:
The Chief Observer of the EU Election Observation Mission (EU EOM), Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, Member of the European Parliament, issued the following statement about the announcement of the winner of the presidential election in the Republic of Kenya:
“Once again, we would like to commend Kenyan citizens for the strong commitment to peace and democracy that they showed on election day.
“With a view to the presidential elections, however, we believe that, at this time, the ECK, despite the best efforts of its chairman, has not succeeded in establishing the credibility of the tallying process to the satisfaction of all parties and candidates.
“We regret that it has not been possible to address irregularities about which both the EU EOM and the ECK have evidence. The result for the Molo constituency, for example, was announced in the presence of EU EOM Observers at the constituency tally center as 50,145 votes for President Kibaki, while the ECK today declared the result for the President to be 75,261 votes. Because of this and other observed irregularities, some doubt remains as to the accuracy of the result of the presidential election as announced today.
“We call on the leaders of Kenya to maintain this spirit of peace and democracy so admirably shown by the people of Kenya on Thursday.”
the east african standard (nairobi): Kibaki Declared Winner, Sworn In
The Electoral Commission of Kenya has declared President Mwai Kibaki the winner of the 2007 polls and he was immediately sworn in at State House gardens, Nairobi.
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Kibaki was sworn in just after 6.00pm Kenyan Time by Chief Justice Evan Gicheru in the presence of ministers, Attorney General Amos Wako and the top brass of the armed forces.
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Meanwhile, an official from the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) has come out in the open and declared that the poll body is rigging the elections in favour of President Mwai Kibaki. Mr Kipkemoi Kirui, a parliamentary official, seconded to ECK was led to the press conference addressed by ODM leaders led by presidential candidate, Mr Raila Odinga.
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“My conscience could not allow me to see what I was seeing and keep quiet,” said Kirui adding: “I have seen form 16A delivered by returning officers… and the results announced here by the chairman are different.”
The officer said “blatant and shameless alteration of documents” was being done particularly by “information technology officials.”
He said the results for Coast and upper Eastern provinces were the most affected, and named Moyale, Laisamis, Saku and Matuga among other six constituencies.
Raila said Nakuru Town, and Maragua constituencies had presented fake results.
nyt: Tribal Rivalry Boils Over After Kenyan Election
One Western ambassador said that Western diplomats tried for hours on Sunday to persuade the election commission to do a recount of the vote figures using original results but that the commission refused.
“This was rigged,” the ambassador said.
The election commission acknowledged that there were irregularities but said that it was not their job to address them.
The opposition, said the chairman, Samuel Kivuitu, “can go to the courts.”
voa: US Congratulates Kenya Presidential Vote Winner, EU Monitors Question Results
The U.S. State Department on Sunday congratulated Mwai Kibaki as the winner of Kenya’s presidential election and called for calm in the African nation already disrupted by deadly riots.
But European Union election observers have questioned the credibility of the results.
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British Foreign Secretary David Miliband expressed “real concerns” over Kenya’s election irregularities, calling on political leaders to address them “in a way that will bring the respect and support of the Kenyan people.”
He urged all sides to settle their disputes peacefully through dialogue and the judicial appeals process.
The European Union team and other election observers initially declared Thursday’s election to be free of fraud but withheld later judgment as delays developed during the vote-counting.
On Sunday, they EU said its observers were blocked from the count.
the nation (nairobi): Violence erupts after Kibaki sworn in
After being sworn in at State House Nairobi, President Kibaki asked his opponents to accept the outcome of the polls, which he described as “credible”.
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“I thank the ECK, security agents, observers and all other players for remaining committed to the conduct of honest, orderly and credible elections that have enabled the true verdict of the people to prevail,” he said.
In other developments, the Government through Internal Security minister John Michuki suspended all live broadcasts by television and radio stations and threatened to arrest anyone publishing alarming materials.
voa: Kenya Bans Live Media Broadcasts
..a state of emergency has been imposed on some parts of the country as fighting escalates. Joseph Magoott is a Kenyan political analyst. From the capital, Nairobi he tells reporter Peter Clottey the elections outcome is a sad day in the life of Kenya’s young democracy.
“There has been an order directing all media outlets not to broadcast live materials from their stations. Remember, the ODM’s Raila Odinga was scheduled to make a statement to challenge the electoral result. And I think one of the media houses begun a broadcast, but all of a sudden it was switched off and that I think is retrogressive to essentially kill the democratic rights and again is a breach against the freedom of expression. Given that this is the very government that raised the standards and the KTN group,” Magoott noted.
He said the media ban undermines the government’s commitment to freedom of expression.
“This action evokes bad memories that this government is not committed to freedom of the media. Remember, that even the announcement of the results were done by the state media, recorded in the state house and the recorded materials were taken to the rest of the media houses,” he said.
Magoott said some Kenyans are shocked about the outcome of Thursday’s elections.
“Kenyans cannot really believe (what happened) remember it was like the rest of Kenya versus one region given the fact that this is a government that really favored one region in terms of the forming of the government and appointments in public services, and so it was a government by one tribe. And so it is shocking that this government managed to come to office. But there have been reports of the fact that this government had planned and executed rigging and cheated in the election. These are legitimate grounds that the ODM team had raised, and the announcement made by Kivuitu (electoral commissioner) were not reflective of the results of the districts, and so there was some cooking so to speak along the way. So Kenyans have not received the news well,” Magoott pointed out.
kenyan pundit (blog): Post-media blackout update
All live broadcasts have been suspended by the government. The order was released as ODM was addressing their press conference.
This is now officially a police state.
So we have no idea what ODM is saying, and what the security situation is around the country.
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With live media shut down [update – ban just extended to phone interviews with journalists and political reporting] rumors are dominating.
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Drove to a friend’s house less than ten minutes away and had to go through a police checkpoint. Very scary.
I have no news to report. It’s a total total blackout. Watching TV feels like watching TV under some crazy dictatorship. I mean we all know that the country is on fire, but KBC is airing Just for Laughs. WTF???
I, however, remain committed to keeping whatever news I can flowing so keep the info coming (even though it might sit in moderation for a while). And hopefully I’ll have something updates tomorrow from what is now for all intents and purposes my bunker.
also reports of “shoot to kill” orders in some districts, rumours of odinga and/or his comrades being arrested or held temporarily.
more will come out in the next day or so, but it’s pretty telling that the u.s. was the first to congratulate kibaki & call for kenyans to accept him amidst all the controversy.
Posted by: b real | Dec 31 2007 6:45 utc | 55
Although the insight of Bernhard and the comments in general on MOA are generally excellent, there appears to be lacking an important aspect in our discussions. We skirt the issue when we talk of progressive agendas regarding people’s needs, or when we talk of various topics such as domestic politics, conservation, peak oil, global energy, geopolitics and war. Somehow we rarely, if ever, directly address a most prime issue. It is nothing obscure – it is basic. The most basic need of people is food.
Agriculture has been transformed more than ever in the last century because of one basic factor – nitrogen production. Increased crop yield via increased fertilization has been astounding. However, there are very intelligent people who believe this is the wrong tactic for food production. Such methods show a pronounced flaw in design approach, that is, ignoring nature and past human culture. The best and brightest engineering and design people often look to nature for efficiency in design, whether it be in architecture (both in form and function), component designs from aeronautical, automobile, marine to industrial processes, or even in methods of crop production. Nitrogen production is highly energy dependent and unfortunately, corn and soy – which the U.S. food supply is based on, is highly needy of nitrogen for high yield.
I am attempting to become “closer to the land” and “psychologically” less dependent on “the system” that ensnarls us all. If time and talent permit, becoming less physically dependent on “the system” would be a plus if it is not too tedious.
For childish reasons, similar to a kid in a candy store, I have rushed in and approached this problem completely backwards, literally, as the old saying goes, putting the cart before the horse. In this case, it is getting the horses, before the most important part of agricultural life, which is “the pasture”. [Two months ago on a whim I adopted two wild Mustangs from the U.S. government. I knew nothing about horses and I did not even have an enclosure for them as I filled out the papers to adopt them. This was on a Friday morning. It was necessary for a friend and myself to rush back to finish an enclosure before the wild horses were to be delivered in two days, Sunday afternoon. This was not an easy task, because the corral posts had to be heavy duty (6in x 6in) and 6ft. high using 2in.x 8 in. planking and a roofed shelter was also necessary. We worked way into the nights with floodlights, a gas-powered post hole digger and a generator. Perhaps those two days may make an interesting story for another time.]
With a severe drought here in the U.S. Southeast, a bale of hay has increased from less than $4.00 a bale to currently around $8.50 a bale! Worst yet, grain prices have never been higher and show no signs of changing. As for my personal situation, the need for a pasture is paramount for economic reasons, plus the horses will need some room to romp. I am in the process of building an initial strong fenced pasture 308 ft. x 40 ft. and have winter rye grass started which is already a couple of inches high.
An excellent book for all regarding nutritious “organic” food production is ’An Omnivore’s Dilemma’ – by Michael Pallon. In this book, Pallon emphasizes the basics of pasture and when techniques are properly done, organic farming can be high production, high yield, and leave the earth more enriched as the years go by without need for chemical fertilizer application. It is not a “zero” or limited resource game.
With that said however, I feel that the world is currently headed for very significant increases in food prices, especially in the U.S., due to the falling dollar, higher energy prices, and increased importation of fertilizers.
Below are some excellent links regarding world demand and production of nitrogen. So much of this is relevant to what we discuss here at MOA. For just one example, the 7 billion (US$) Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) natural gas pipeline will provide Iran an economic lifeline at a time when the US and its European allies are trying to weaken it and also create an unbreakable long term political and economic dependence of India and Pakistan on Iran – this, of course, is not to Washington’s liking. India is the second largest consumer of nitrogen, with China being the largest. Both countries each far exceed the U.S. in nitrogen use although the U.S. relies on imports the most. Moreover, besides fertilizer production and transportation, energy is required in the processing of foods, packaging, transportation, retailing, and home refrigeration and preparation. “Fossil fuel reliance may prove to be the Achilles heel of the modern food system. Oil supply fluctuations and disruptions could send food prices soaring. Competition and conflict could escalate quickly. Decoupling the food system from the oil industry is key to improving food security.” – Danielle Murray.
The PotashCorp World Agriculture and Fertilizer Markets Map brings you crop and fertilizer data from across the globe. Discover what primary crops are grown in selected countries, as well as the amount of N, P and K products these countries produce, import, export and consume. You can learn more about world livestock, including cattle, poultry, pigs and sheep stock and meat production.
http://www.potashcorp.com/media/flash/world_map/
http://www.potashcorp.com/investor_relations/markets_information/world_markets_map/?link_type=rightNav
Energy agriculture – where’s the nitrogen?
http://www.extension.iastate.edu/AGDM/articles/hof/HofNov07.html
Impact of Rising Natural Gas – Prices on U.S. Ammonia Supply
http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/WRS0702/wrs0702.pdf
Posted by: Rick | Dec 31 2007 10:17 utc | 56
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