Thanks b real – I have updated the original post – “Retract the congratulation” – foggy bottom is a clownhouse and Rice is Bush’sCheney’s hapless court jester

Posted by: b | Dec 31 2007 21:14 utc | 4

to anyone who knows just a little about Kenyan politics, despite its safari, friendly, & touristy “National Geographic” image, Kenya is a highly politically volatile country with some serious stuff brewing under its photogenic surface. Still, Kenya is home to many world-class thinkers & progressives and we have good cause to expect (& hope) that they are bigger, than any potential Luo/Kikuyu ethnic conflict that may be manipulated out of this.
and its just un-imaginable that Condi & Jendayi’s State Dept are so clueless. A quick call to pretty much any British diplomat or lowly diplomat-clerk, anywhere in the world would have saved them this incredible embarrassment. The British know Kenya (former colony) well. Not just about Mau-Mau but they also know better than to be anything but very cautious about Kenya.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 1 2008 0:24 utc | 6

the use of the words tribe & tribalism have the effect of stoking moral superiority. Even though whats going in Kenya is absolutely no different from Northern Ireland, Yugoslavia, Cyprus and none of these are described as tribal conflicts, or the USA’s North-South divide in its civil war.
Either the Luo or the Kikuyu have always numbered more than many if not most ethnic groups in Europe.
and for as long as the Western media continue to distinguish certain darker others as tribes, we will know they are ignorant, uncivilized, delusional & insecure puffed-up but deprived miserables, desperately always in need of a moral-superiority fix.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 1 2008 15:58 utc | 8

frist, two re the first blockquote in b’s initial post, on the commissioners
the east african standard (nairobi): The question of nominations to Parliament

When Kibaki appointed new commissioners into the ECK a few months ago, he did not bother to consult with other political parties. He carried out the exercise single-handedly.
The move, Magut says, was and is still legally acceptable but socially and politically immoral because he was the leading architect of this IPPG provision that agreed and concluded that all parties be involved in such an exercise.
It is alleged that one of the commissioners appointed to ECK is indeed Kibaki’s personal lawyer and friend.
The move attracted a wave of protests across the country.
For instance, Kibaki replaced a number of the commissioners, including vice chairman Gabriel Mukele, and was set to replace ECK Chairman Samuel Kuvuitu but the media, observers, politicians and stakeholders protested.
In his aloof style, the President kept everybody guessing, but finally succumbed to pressure and renewed Kivuitu’s five-year term.

I acted under a pressure, says Kivuitu

On Tuesday night, Mr Samuel Kivuitu made a damning admission that he announced results of the fiercely contested presidential election under pressure.
The announcement plunged the country into a post-election violence of a scale never witnessed before.
The magnitude of the Electoral Commission chairman’s admission and the further dent on the credibility of the election was captured in his answer when asked if indeed President Kibaki won the elections: “I do not know whether Kibaki won the election”.
Kivuitu continued with his stunning revelations when he said he took the presidential election winner’s certificate to State House, Nairobi, after “some people threatened to collect it while I’m the one mandated by law to do so”.
“I arrived at State House to take the certificate and I found the Chief Justice there, ready to swear-in Kibaki,” Kivuitu said.
…
On Tuesday, Kivuitu said the alleged pressure to declare results came in the wake of parallel pressure from a number of ambassadors from the European Union countries and Mr Maina Kiai of the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights not to announce the results until complaints, which arose, were addressed.
“I had thought of resigning, but thought against it because I don’t want people to say I’m a coward,” he said. The embattled ECK chairman made the revelations shortly after meeting with 22 ECK commissioners.
On Tuesday, Kivuitu conceded that matters that arose from the poll results were so urgent that they should be taken to court, and the ruling done with minimum delay to ease national tension.
…
On his part, Kivuitu said he backed independent investigation into what may have happened, but added that this would be only if the law would provide for it.
“We are culprits as a commission. We have to leave it to an independent group to investigate what actually went wrong,” the chairman said, stunning local and international journalists, who had gathered at his Nairobi residence.

and now, more bits & pieces of the larger story
FT: A chilling reminder of an election gone sour

Mr Kibaki was first swept to power on a wave of public euphoria in 2002 elections, promising an end to the venal politics of Daniel Arap Moi, his predecessor. But the fruits of economic growth have since been unevenly spread and many Kenyans believe he has served the interests of his Kikuyu tribe at the expense of others.
The drubbing his party received in parallel parliamentary elections last week, in which many members of his cabinet were ejected, reflected the depth of disenchantment. The Kikuyus are the largest of more than 40 ethnic groups and have traditionally been dominant in business. But their presence among the foot soldiers of Kenya’s army is weak.
If, as many analysts in Kenya are predicting, the only way for Mr Kibaki to enforce his authority in the absence of a legitimate mandate is to crush dissent, the loyalty of the security forces would become crucial.
Maina Kiai, chairman of the Kenyan National commission on Human rights, said: “If Kibaki insists on staying, I don’t see how else he’ll govern this country other than with a heavy hand.”
The focus of immediate concern over the past three days has been in the rivalry between Mr Odinga’s Luo tribe, who believe their man won the vote, and the Kikuyus. But reports of worsening violence illustrate the extent to which Mr Kibaki’s rule has exacerbated Kenya’s many tribal divisions, isolating in the process his fellow Kikuyus.
…
The Kalenjins, among other tribes that bear grievances, make up a significant proportion of the army.
For now, Mr Kibaki is relying on paramilitary units of the police who, according to security sources, have been freshly armed. But if the situation continues to deteriorate and he was forced to press the army on to the streets, the consequences could be grave, with the possibility that the troops become factionalised.
…
The cabal of hardliners surrounding Mr Kibaki have repeatedly refused to bend to the mood on the street.
Some are motivated by an arrogance that sees the Luo tribe as inferior and their own as Kenya’s rightful rulers. But they may also fear the personal consequences of an Odinga presidency.
Mr Odinga, a former political prisoner, swore during election campaigning that he would pursue officials for past human rights violations and corruption.
“I think they could not contemplate Raila and his people having the keys to the intelligence files. There are too many skeletons in the cupboards,” said a Nairobi based political analyst.

Title : In What Ways Has US Security Cooperation Programs Been Effective in Helping Kenya to Build Partnership Capacity to Counter Transnational Terrorism?
Descriptive Note : Monograph
Corporate Author : ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES
Abstract : This monograph uses Kenya as a case study to analyze the US Security Cooperation role and process in building host-nation capacity to meet the needs of Kenya to counter transnational terrorists’ networks. US counterterrorism operations since 9/11 have explicitly demonstrated the US requirement to take an indirect approach to ensuring national security as part of an international community combating transnational terrorists’ networks. In addition to capacity building, regional focus from all agencies with the US Government (USG) is required for a coordinated and effective approach in the GWOT. The United States began formal relations with Kenya in 1981 with air and port basing agreements. Kenya’s strategic location facilitated access for stability and humanitarian operations in the western Indian Ocean and east Africa. The events of 9/11 highlighted the US requirement for security partners in combating transnational terrorists and Kenya became a central front on the Global War on Terror (GWOT) due to its strategic location and willingness to ally. The partnership that started during the Cold War has carried on through to today’s war on transnational terrorists. Kenya is one of the three “anchor states” in sub-Saharan Africa, along with Nigeria and South Africa, essential in stabilizing Africa.
The program with Kenya focused on three general lines of effort to include foreign assistance, defense security cooperation and assistance programs, and counter-terrorism training programs. In general, all three have been effective for Kenya. In specifics, the lack of a coordinated regional USG effort reduced the effectiveness of on-going programs to counter the transnational threat in the region. The nature of capacity building and countering terrorism requires a long-term strategy.
The requirement to get initial successes in short and mid-term are met through the Defense and Counter-Terrorism efforts. The success in these areas is due to tailoring these programs to the requirements of Kenya. Security assistance procedures have not progressed since the Cold War era, and as such, actions to assist building Kenya’s security apparatus have met roadblocks.
The current focus of the international community is the Middle East; Everything else is secondary. Conflicts in other regions of the world have not stopped, nor is there any indication of such action in the future. The limitations of what the US military can accomplish are real. The necessity of effective security cooperation programs to fight as part of the indirect approach to warfare is more relevant today than ever before to mitigate the requirement for armed interventions.

The events of 9/11 highlighted the US
requirement for security partners in combating transnational terrorists and Kenya became a central front on the Global War on Terror (GWOT) due to its strategic location and willingness to ally. Kenya’s vulnerability to terrorist cells such as Al-Qaeda began three years before 9/11. On August 7, 1998, the US embassies in Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania were simultaneously bombed. These attacks brought international attention to Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden.4 Although the targets were Western, Africans bore the brunt of the damage. Since independence in 1963, Kenya has predominantly aligned with a pro-Western stance on foreign affairs. This relationship, along with its location, has made Kenya the linchpin of stability in the East African region.

some refresher materials
feb 25, 2007 : Kenya ’Aided US Raid in Somalia’

Kenya cooperated closely and extensively with the US in the Ethiopian-American intervention in Somalia last month, A U.S newspaper has reported. The New York Times said on Friday that a US special forces unit known as Task Force 88 operated inside Kenya as part of a coordinated offensive against Islamist militants in Somalia.
Task Force 88’s deployment in Kenya was timed to coincide with attacks inside Somalia by two US Air Force AC-130 gunships flying from an airstrip in eastern Ethiopia, according to the Times account. The heavily armed American planes hit targets in Ras Kamboni near the Somalia border with Kenya on January 7. Around the same time, US special forces “operating in Kenya, working with the Kenyan military, also set up positions along the Somalia border to capture militants trying to flee the country,” two Washington-based Times correspondents wrote. The Government moved swiftly to close Kenya’s border with Somalia in what Kenya said was aimed at blocking the war from spilling into the country and preventing the Islamists from fleeing.
…
According to the Times, CIA agents in Kenya served as conduits for American intelligence that was passed on to Kenyan officials.

from barnett’s esquire piece last june

The word came down suddenly in early January to the fifty or so U.S. troops stationed inside Camp Simba, a Kenyan naval base located on that country’s sandy coast: Drop everything and pull everyone back inside the compound wire. Then they were instructed to immediately clear a couple acres of dense forest. Task Force 88, a very secret American special-operations unit, needed to land three CH-53 helicopters.
“We had everybody working nonstop,” says Navy Lieutenant Commander Steve Eron, commander of Contingency Operating Location Manda Bay, a new American base in Kenya, including a dozen or so on-site KBR contractors. By the next day, every tree had been hauled off and the field graded and packed down using heavy machinery. The pad was completed in thirty-six hours.
Soon after, U.S. special operators flying out of Manda Bay were landing in southernmost Somalia, searching for survivors among the foreign fighters and Al Qaeda operatives just targeted in a furious bombardment by a U.S. gunship launched from a secret airstrip in eastern Ethiopia.
The 88’s job was simple: Kill anyone still alive and leave no unidentified bodies behind.

human rights watch, march 30, 2007: Kenya, US and Ethiopia Cooperate in Secret Detentions and Renditions

In a March 22 letter to the Kenyan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Human Rights Watch detailed the arbitrary detention, expulsion and apparent enforced disappearance of dozens of individuals who fled the fighting between the Union of Islamic Courts and the joint forces of the Transitional Federal Government and Ethiopia from December 2006 through January 2007.
“Each of these governments has played a shameful role in mistreating people fleeing a war zone,” said Georgette Gagnon, deputy Africa director of Human Rights Watch. “Kenya has secretly expelled people, the Ethiopians have caused dozens to ‘disappear,’ and US security agents have routinely interrogated people held incommunicado.”
Human Rights Watch’s recent research in Kenya indicates that since late December 2006, Kenyan security forces arrested at least 150 individuals from some 18 different nationalities at the Liboi and Kiunga border crossing points with Somalia. The Kenyan authorities then transferred these individuals to Nairobi where they were detained incommunicado and without charge for weeks in violation of Kenyan law.
Human Rights Watch recognizes that Kenya may have valid security concerns regarding people seeking refuge within its borders. Nonetheless these concerns must be addressed through a fair process in accordance with international law, not arbitrarily at the expense of fundamental human rights.

from an april 2007 opinion piece in a rwandan paper

Kenya is also said to be reconsidering the American view on the stabilisation of Somalia and secret meetings with the Islamists are said to have taken place. Kenya has reason to move more cautiously, given the show of force that the Somali community displayed days into the Ethiopian invasion, when they held mammoth protest rally in Nairobi , which was backed by the leading opposition Orange Democratic Movement.

voa, 29 aug 2007: Kenya’s Muslim Leaders Throw Support to Opposition

Muslim leaders in Kenya say they are unhappy with the policies of the current government and want a new president. That is what the chairman of Kenya’s National Muslim Leaders Forum tells VOA, following the group’s announcement it is supporting opposition leader Raila Odinga in the upcoming presidential elections in December.
…
In a telephone interview with VOA, Abdi said the current government, headed by President Mwai Kibaki, has failed to address key issues faced by the Muslim community.
One of the most contentious issues is the question of land ownership along Kenya’s coast.
Since Kenya gained independence from Britain in the 1960s, many Muslims in Kenya, who live along the Indian Ocean coastline, have complained that government leaders illegally reallocated their ancestral lands to members of their own tribes.
Coastal Muslims, who first settled in the area several hundred years ago, say land-grabbing has continued, and in some cases accelerated, under President Mwai Kibaki.
“If you look at the coastal strip of Kenya, first of all, it is only the Muslims who have their land taken by force by the government,” Abdi said. “Eighty percent of all the land close to the sea has been taken by force. This happened under the previous regime, but currently it is being accelerated by the current regime. As I am talking to you, there are preparations to settle 4,000 families on the main land in Lamu district.”
Abdi says Kenyan Muslims are also angry with the Kibaki government because of its close cooperation with the United States and other allies in the U.S.-led war against global terrorism.

——————–
contrast IRI’s preliminary findings against the ones from the EU i posted earlier. granted, this was issued before the tallying delays took place, though there’s something unsettling about this recommendation:

Kenya continues to move forward on its democratic path. As the country moves into the final phase of the election, IRI’s delegation encourages the people to continue to respect the process and accept the final decision.

(IRI has an office in nairobi – one of three on the continent. throughout the year there were articles on how the u.s. was working w/ the kenyan govt to prepare for elections…)
also interesting, given the media spin now, is
Kenya: The “Rwanda Scenario” Needs Reality Testing

Professional journalism is precisely what it is needed at this point, not rumor mills, gabbling punditry or frightened people who are not in position to do anything but share with one another that they have no idea what is going on, and have no way of finding out.
The Times man in Nairobi reported earlier today, for example, that he has witnessed cases of ethnic conflict notably not busting out.
I am waiting to hear more from him on that point. It is an important one.
Because other hard news sources are telling another story than that of the apocalyptic “Rwanda scenario” at this point: That the bulk of the violence is being perpetrated by the state, and specifically by the police, under orders from the incumbent government.
This is a government, after all, which admitted it used police to intimidate the East African Standard last year.
…
There are also press reports that the same Minister, Michuki, has ordered police to shoot all protesters and curfew violators — and we already know that he imposed a press blackout that has been roundly condemned by the international community.
…
Press blackout. Police operating in a state of exception. Do the math.
And then press reports citing anonymous “senior police officials” who are spreading moral panic over a “Rwanda scenario.”
Might this not be a strategy for justifying the state of exception allegedly needed to stem this alleged “Rwanda scenario”? Which coincidentally would consolidate the incumbent’s hold on power?
The minister ordering the police to shoot to kill was just voted out of office, for example. Do you think that might cast some small shadow of a doubt on his motives in giving the order?
Who is doing what to whom, and why?
And how credible should we assume anonymous Kenyan police sources are at this point, when operating under a press blackout under the orders of this Michuki gentleman?

i followed some of the rhetoric from the madman michuki last year in the comments here and here

Posted by: b real | Jan 2 2008 6:25 utc | 10

Thanks for the update on Kenya.

Posted by: Mukungu | Jan 3 2008 1:21 utc | 12

anna missed – from what i’ve read, the muslim communities in kenya are strongly against what the u.s. has done in the name of terror, not only around the world & region, but also inside kenya, as would any decent human. for instance, check out the concerns outlined in an 2003 open letter on behalf of the residents of the northwestern province.
but it’s not just the muslim communities that are incensed. the events to kenya’s north, and their govt’s role in it, has outraged many, who recognize that they have little semblance of sovereignty on these matters.
i don’t have at hand any stmts that odinga has made about his what his policies would be re kenya’s relations w/ the u.s., but he is categorized as a leftist — named his first son after castro (though reactionaries hardly take the time to understand the place that cuba & fidel has held for africa, and esp during the years surrounding independence) — and he has sucessfully pitched his candidacy as representing the common folk, the un(der)represented, and the poor. since a nations citizenry would not willingly submit their own sovereignty to such an imperialist master, it’s hardly likely that odinga fits into the u.s.’ strategy of a stable & secured access anchor nation. national security states require good dictators, as the dead jeane kirkpatrick can no longer tell anyone. i’ll try to gather more revelant sources on how integral kenya is to current u.s. foreign policy, b/c it definitely factors bigtime.
at the same time, pent up frustrations & animosities have certainly played a role in the atmosphere there. both leading parties stoked the flames of ethnic divisions and it doesn’t help to have a brutal police apparatus that has massacred people w/ impunity over the last year. perhaps something similar will transpire here, w/ the blue state tribe seeking revenge on the red state tribe. consumers gone wild or something.
– – –
Raila takes the lead in search for a way out

ODM leader Mr Raila Odinga last night took the lead in trying to find a way out of the impasse caused by alleged fraudulent tallying of votes that cost him victory in the just completed poll and led to loss of lives.
…
Last night, Raila dropped the preconditions he had earlier set for talks, and declared that he was agreeing to international mediation, through which he would negotiate with Kibaki.
Raila also said he was willing to participate in an interim government whose only purpose would be to prepare for a re-run of the presidential election.
“The interim government should last no more than three months,” he said, adding that such a poll should be conducted by an independent body and not the ECK, which has been discredited as partisan and whose members are President Kibaki’s appointees.
Raila’s roadmap to get the country out of the abyss it is slowly sinking into came even as suspicion, mistrust, and arrogance were evident in the Party of National Unity and his own party.

gettleman in the NYT mentioned on wednesday that

Western governments, including the United States, are calling for a vote recount.

ran out of time to read much tonite, but this caught my eye in uganda’s daily monitor
How Kenya polls were messed up

Daily Monitor investigations also indicate that ECK officials overlooked the fact that Kenyan police personnel deployed to guard all the 36,000 polling stations countrywide also kept a record of the voting and compiled an accurate record of the results, so that even if something happened to the ECK structures, the Kenya Police is in position to give the nation correct results of the polls. Sources say that the Kenya Police tally indicates a major difference from what the ECK announced.

that can’t be right, can it? the police know who voted for whom?
and, in addition to the reports of increased rapes,
Rape on the rise in post-election violence

Amid the violence that engulfed several residential areas of the Kenyan capital following the declaration of controversial results of the presidential elections, women in particular have been targetted, with at least one hospital reporting a rise in the number of rape victims seeking treatment.
The Nairobi Women’s Hospital said it had on 31 December received 19 rape cases, almost double the daily average.
…
Sexual violence has also been reported against men, with the Kenyatta National Hospital in Nairobi on 2 January saying several men had been admitted after they were assaulted during the violence.
“There are several men admitted in various wards after they were subjected to forced circumcision,” a source at the hospital said.
Odinga’s core supporters come from the Luo ethnic group that does not practise circumcision, while Kibaki draws most of his following from the Kikuyu group, one of several tribes in which male circumcision is an essential rite of passage from adolescence to manhood.

Posted by: b real | Jan 3 2008 6:23 utc | 14

anna missed-
i’m looking forward to volume 4 of network records’ golden afrique series, which is working its way to the east african artists. so far it’s been a fantastic series of double-cd’s. vol 1 covers some really great west african music, vol 2 was dedicated to the roots of rumba (soukous) music, and vol 3 hit southern africa. very impressive collections. the volume should have plenty of benga.
BTW, did you notice that there’s plenty of franco up on youtube now? somebody’s been raiding the vaults, obviously. search “tpok jazz” rather than just franco.
ode to the guitar by yusef komunyakaa

Posted by: b real | Jan 3 2008 16:36 utc | 16

Thanks BenIAM
A solution will be difficult. Kibaki is afraid of being courtmarshalled if Raila becomes president.
Maybe Raila should promise an amnesty or something like that.
And fast please because the whole of Kenia goes down in the mess.

Posted by: b | Jan 3 2008 19:24 utc | 18

Regarding the police and vote counting.
It is possible that they were present at the voting locations during voting and counting and just wrote down the election results at each polling station. As the suspected fraud is supposed to have been performed between polling stations and the final summation, such a record would be telling.

Posted by: a swedish kind of death | Jan 3 2008 22:54 utc | 20

most recognized estimates on the number of displaced in kenya, which are getting constantly getting bandied about, range from around 75,000 to 100,000 persons.
assuming this is not a typo, in a very brief interview w/ the secretary-general of the kenya red cross society, that number shot up just as fast as the price of petrol in the region
Kenya Red Cross: “The lack of accessibility is a major concern,” says Abbas Gullet

What are the immediate priorities for Kenya Red Cross?
Medical assistance remains the priority for now. But we estimate that around 500,000 people country-wide have been uprooted by this violence. When there is improved access we will need to supply these people with food, water and shelter.

Posted by: b real | Jan 4 2008 3:59 utc | 22

i quoted from a NYT article that reported that the u.s. was pushing for a recount. i don’t think so, according to this bbc article today quoting state’s go-to-guy for weasel words

Earlier, a spokeswoman for European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said that the EU and US had agreed to push Mr Kibaki and his opposition rival to consider a coalition government, following talks between Mr Solana and US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Demonstrators running from police in Nairobi 3/1/08
The latest disorder prompted the Nairobi Stock Exchange to shut
However, US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack later said that was not what was agreed.
“It’s not quite how the secretary, at least from our side, would characterise the situation,” Mr McCormack said.
“We’re not going to dictate the outcome of any discussions between the two parties,” he added, saying that the US was urging both sides to “have a political dialogue that leads to a political solution, whatever that may be“.

Posted by: b real | Jan 4 2008 4:49 utc | 24

sharp commentary in the latest issue of pambazuka news, devoted to the issues in kenya.
some excerpts
It is the Kenyan people who have lost the election

That the elections results were rigged – of that there is little doubt. The hasty inauguration, the blanket banning on the broadcast media, the dispersal of security forces to deal with expected protests – all these have given the post election period the flavour of a coup d’etat. What was not expected was the speed with which the whole thing would unravel. The declaration of the members of the Electoral Commission that the results were indeed rigged only added to the growing realisation that a coup had indeed taken place.
People across the country took to the streets to protest and were met with disproportionate use of force by the police and GSU. Emotions ran high. And there is evidence that politicians from all sides used the occasion to instigate violent attacks against their opponents constituencies. There have been rapes, forced circumcision and forced female genital mutilation. The western media has been quick to describe these as ‘ethnic clashes’ – but then they appear only to be able to see tribes whenever there are conflicts in Africa. What is ignored by them is that the security forces have been responsible for the majority of killings.
What we have in Kenya is a political crisis that could, descend into civil war if the political crisis is not resolved soon. And therein lies the problem.
There is no coherent political direction from the ODM. First Raila Odinga declares he’s the ‘people’s president’ (shades of Blair’s ‘people’s princess’ speech – the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce, some might say – and says he is going to arrange to be inaugurated. What happened?
Then he says that he is not willing to meet with Kibaki, then says he will meet provided there is an international mediator. He says he will form his own government, and then takes that no further.
Then he calls for a million person march into Nairobi, and when faced with a banning order and massive police attacks, backs down and calls for another demonstration the following day.
But what is this demonstration seeking to achieve? Such events are usually a means of showing the size of popular support: but ODM has already demonstrated its popular support in the stolen elections. There are no coherent political demands for this event that would bring the support of the many who, though they may not have voted for ODM, would feel that they would nevertheless want to express their support. There is no real strategy for enabling PNU’s own political base to be won over.
The election results were rigged, sure. But the failure to demand that an independent judicial inquiry be established to investigate only leads to suspicions that even the ODM were not keen to have the results investigated. It is now probably too late to conduct a satisfactory investigation since original records may have been tampered with – which might explain the Attorney General’s sudden willingness announced today to allow the ECK records to be inspected without recourse to use of the courts.
The mass demonstrations could have been used to call for such an investigation and to protest against the media ban imposed by Kibaki and to challenge constitutionality of the ban. Instead, it served no purpose other than what some see as an infantile response to the theft of the elections.
Why has there been no public appeal to the armed forces and police – whose families have no doubt suffered in the violent upheavals – to refuse to fire on citizens, or to defend and protect citizens from the violence that has been unleashe?. Kibaki can retain power only through the use of force – and so long as the armed forces and the police remain loyal, he will be able to retain his hold on power.
ODM has failed to challenge the existing government by encouraging all sections of society to create a viable alternative to the present government.
But the real tragedy of Kenya is that the political conflict is not about alternative political programmes that could address the long standing grievances of the majority over landlessness, low wages, unemployment, lack of shelter, inadequate incomes, homelessness, etc. It is not about such heady aspirations.
No, it boils down to a fight over who has access to the honey pot that is the state. For those in control of the state machinery are free to fill their pockets. So the battle lines are reduced to which group of people are going to be chosen to fill their pockets – and citizens are left to decide perhaps that a few crumbs might fall off the table in their direction.
And the electorate – the mass of citizens who have borne the brunt of the recent violence and decades of prolonged disenfranchisement from accessing the fruits of independence – are reduced to being just being fodder for the pigs fighting over the trough.

Drama of the popular struggle for democracy in Kenya

The International media and international capital
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) and other cultural voices of imperial power were from the outset one of the props of this drama. The British were particularly active because the interests of British capitalism were very much an important part of narrative of the drama. During Act 1 scenes two and three, this foreign prop had been condemning the “irregularities’” and “anomalies” of the drama and carried the press statements of the International Observers of the European Union and the Commonwealth. The head of the European Union observer mission issued a statement declaring that, “the Presidential poll lacks credibility and an independent audit should be instituted to rectify things.”
This clear statement led the US government to reverse its earlier recognition of Mwai Kibaki as the winner of the Presidential elections. There had been concern in Washington over the future of Kenya in so far as the US authorities sought to mobilize Kenyans in the war against terrorism. During the period of Kibaki, Kenyan citizens were shipped out of the country to be tried as terrorists under the US policy of kidnapping, called rendition. The ODM signed a memorandum of understanding with the Islamic community during the election campaign and members of the ODM condemned the rendering of Kenyan citizens by the government. It was argued that if these citizens acted contrary to Kenyan law, they should be tried under Kenyan law.
The propaganda war had been virulent and since Raila Odinga held the moral and political high ground, sections of the international media began to retreat from endorsement of the electoral coup. However, the occupation of the moral high ground was shaky. Would the government and opposition be more concerned with the lives of the poor than with political power?
In the face of the absence of resolute moral leadership to condemn these killings, the international media had a field day portraying the struggles for democracy in Kenya as primitive “tribal” violence.
…
The poor of Kenya had used the ballot to send a message to the capitalists in Kenya but those who stole billions of dollars from the Kenyan Treasury were not above stealing an election.
The real test in Kenyan politics was whether the team called the Pentagon was serious about changing the political culture of theft, looting and storing billions of dollars in foreign banks. The people of Kenya had voted for change. Was the Orange Democratic Movement a movement for change or a movement for political power? This was the outstanding question as the cast and the writers got ready for Act three of the drama of the struggle for democracy.

Kenya’s democracy on trial

Toward a solution, Kenyans should realize that something beautiful did happen during this election. Most of the big men of Kenyan politics were voted out of Parliament and hence out of office. Even the sons of former dictator Moi did not win seats in Parliament. There seemed to be a belief that voting was a way of talking back the Kenyan political elite, and that democracy could be made to work for the majority poor. This is the flame that we must not let die.
To nurture this flame, a recount of the votes in a transparent manner is necessary. This, no matter what one thinks of Raila or Kibaki, or whether one thinks the elections were fair or not, should be the meeting ground of all those concerned about the future, immediate and long term, of Kenya.
If the votes can be recounted in full transparency, this election will not then become the death of Kenyan democracy but rather a test along the way to a democracy with real content – the content of security, equality and justice for Kenya’s majority poor.

Posted by: b real | Jan 4 2008 5:20 utc | 26

anna missed@27,
Precisely.
And the worst case (which we thankfully have’nt seen) would have segments of the Kikuyu masses acting in retaliation. The current picture is one of extreme brutality by the security forces, and possibly some false-flag operations.
and since Odinga – the ODM leader (and their prez candidate) is a member of the Luo ethnic group, its just natural that members of the Luo ethnic group would be the most out-front in their spontaneous anger, outrage & regrettably violent reactions in some cases.
Still Kenyans across the board, irrespective of ethnicity are outraged. The returns from the parliamentary elections had the ODM beating the government party (PNU) by 3:1. The MSM media unfortunately overlooks the fact that the opposition is very broad-based. And to characterize it as a straight-up “rumble in the jungle” type affair between two ethnic groups is very misleading. If peaceful demonstrations are allowed to hold, they (the MSM) will be shamed by the diversity of the turnout.
a lot of the violence could have been averted but for the governments conduct — the panicky-rush inauguration — news blackouts allowing the govt to pump out its hysteria & propaganda — the govts opposition to peaceful demonstrations fueled violence … The governnment (and its supporters) are using every device available to avoid a recount or a re-run. Theres some talk from the govt side about a power-sharing arrangement, but the ODM is certain to reject it, and will instead insist that the voting-process be honored.
I am not very up to date on the Kenyan political situation, but IMHO, its one of the the most complex out there, not just in Africa but the world over. Still, I am confident that if they can get over this hurdle, Kenyans are more than capable of aspiring for & achieving a multi-ethnic political balance that looks more like a Swiss or Belgium, than another perennially volatile Lebanon-like situation.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 4 2008 14:06 utc | 28

the economist minces no words
Kenya’s president steals an election, showing utter contempt for democracy and his people

THE mayhem that killed hundreds of people following Kenya’s election on December 27th completes a depressing cycle of democratic abuses in Africa’s biggest countries. Nigeria held its own mockery of an election last April. Scores were killed and observers pronounced it the most fraudulent poll they had ever witnessed. Congo held a more or less peaceful election in October 2006, since when the main opposition leader has been hounded into exile. And the year before that, flawed elections in Ethiopia resulted in the deaths of 199 protesters. Needless to say, the incumbents all won.
So it is easy to be angry, as well as gloomy, about African leaders’ continual betrayal of the democratic values they say they hold so dear. And all the more so in the case of Kenya, which has a strong tradition of holding elections, a vibrant political culture, a relatively free press and a sophisticated economy. Given all these advantages, as we wrote before the election, Kenya had an opportunity to “set an example” to Africa and hold free and fair elections. But the country blew it.
Or, more precisely, the political elite blew it. A small cabal of politicians almost certainly stole the result by fraud (see article). In the parliamentary vote, President Mwai Kibaki’s ruling party was routed. Yet in the presidential vote Mr Kibaki emerged victorious at the last moment and had himself sworn in only a few minutes later, forestalling pleas from all sides—even from the head of the election commission he himself had appointed—for a pause to investigate mounting claims of malpractice. The report of the European observers was unusually strong in its condemnation of the count.
…
Initially, America, which sees Kenya as a front-line ally in a war against Islamist militias in neighbouring Somalia, made the mistake of endorsing the president’s re-election. Now Britain, America and the African Union are urging Mr Odinga and Mr Kibaki to talk in an effort to stop the bloodletting. That lets Mr Kibaki off the hook far too easily. All the violence should certainly be condemned, but most of the diplomatic pressure should be exerted on Mr Kibaki’s supposed new government to annul the results and organise a recount—or a new vote.
If Mr Kibaki will not do this, the rest of the world should suspend direct aid to his regime and impose a travel ban on his officials. That is the least the wretched people of Kenya have a right to expect from their friends abroad.

earlier on friday, kibaki told reporters

As mediation efforts picked up pace, the government said it was ready for a re-run of the disputed December 27 vote, but only if ordered by a court.
“We would accept even another election as long as the constitution is followed. If the courts decide it, we would accept that,” said Alfred Mutua, spokesman for President Mwai Kibaki.
—Kenya government ready for new vote if ruled by court

“only if ordered by a court”, eh?
as human rights watch points out

However, the Kenyan judiciary is widely perceived as not being independent. The current chief justice was present at the recent swearing-in ceremony of Kibaki. Earlier in his term, Kibaki removed a number of senior judges – including the then-chief justice – and replaced them with individuals viewed as less independent.

—
haven’t found a good summary yet, jony_b_cool, outside of the EU EOM preliminary rpt linked earlier in this thread

Posted by: b real | Jan 5 2008 4:39 utc | 30

seems Jendayi is still a security guard at heart — Africa is a huge shopping mall owned by her employer and the Chinese are a gang of shoplifters.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 6 2008 10:15 utc | 32

Hey b real I wonder the extent to which State Department – Frazer seems to have a much more active profile than former Ass. Sec of State Susan Rice but in essence both Clinton and Bush II have [in principle] a similar policy vis a vis Africa – Africa specialists matter in terms of policy aren’t they just running errands? I’m assuming a progressive African specialist would be run out of State pronto.
Currently damage control is on with Frazer’s Saturday meeting with both Kibaki and Raila upon which Kibaki has issued a call for a ‘national unity government’ that Raila has so far rejected.
It seems that the U.S. is pressuring both sides to enter a power sharing agreement with Kibaki as President and Raila as Vice … and thereby bypassing the theft of the election.

Posted by: BenIAM | Jan 7 2008 4:29 utc | 34

frazer was coddling yusuf in somali too, but reuters reports that he’s back in london for continued medical attention, so she may have to settle for cooing at his casket soon.

Posted by: b real | Jan 7 2008 5:32 utc | 36

one more, that tries to fear-frame the strategic interest in kenya in terms of religious & ethnic/tribal divisions.
st. petersburg (fla.) times: Pivotal geography, religion make Kenya a top priority for America

If you’re wondering why you should care about the postelection violence in Kenya, just look at a map.
Kenya is a long way from the United States, but it’s right next door to Somalia, a Muslim country and a failed state if ever there was one. And Somalia is just across the Gulf of Aden from Yemen, where al-Qaida bombed the USS Cole in 2000, killing 17 American sailors. And Yemen borders Saudi Arabia, home to most of the hijackers who killed nearly 3,000 people on Sept. 11.
In short, Kenya is in a dangerous neighborhood, especially when it comes to U.S. security interests.
A close American ally, “Kenya has been an oasis of stability in a very volatile region,” says Mark Bellamy, U.S. ambassador to Nairobi from 2003 to 2006. “It has really been on a path that we would like to encourage other countries to follow up to now.”
It’s the “now” part that’s causing so much alarm. Since Dec. 29, hundreds have been killed and about 100,000 displaced in the tribal mayhem that erupted after President Mwai Kibaki won what opponents say was a rigged election. Should Kenya spiral into chaos, there are fears it could become yet another breeding ground for Islamic extremists. Or a transit route for terrorists from Somalia and the Arabian peninsula making their way to North Africa and on to Europe.
For more than a decade, al-Qaida and affiliated groups have tried to make Kenya itself a base of operations.
…
..Kenya thus far has resisted the pull of extremism. Only about 10 percent of its 37 million people are Muslim, and most of those are moderates spread among diverse groups of Swahilis, South Asians and Arabs.
“It’s not a Muslim population that’s easily mobilized for jihadi purposes,” Bellamy says. “It’s an apolitical sort of Islam. That said, Kenya is an attractive place for potential extremists for a number of reasons.”
As the bombings proved, radicals have been able to get into the country because of lax border controls. Corruption is rampant, especially among police and other public officials. Kenya has the region’s best infrastructure, making it easier to move cargo, money and people. And while the new U.S. Embassy is well-secured, many potential targets remain among the thousands of Westerners working for regional embassies, the United Nations and nongovernmental organizations.
The Bush administration finds itself in a tough position in the current crisis because Kibaki, for all the complaints against him, has strong relations with the U.S.
Military agreements have allowed U.S. troops to use Kenya as a staging area for regional crises, both natural and human-created. Kenya is among the top 10 recipients of U.S. foreign aid, collecting $240 million in 2005.
…
Frayed U.S.-Kenyan relations are not something the United States wants to see happen again with a big African nation so strategically important to Americans.

which is why it supports kibaki instead of the people of kenya.

Posted by: b real | Jan 7 2008 16:44 utc | 38

jendayi is “emphatic” that the rule of law be upheld. what is the position of the main lawyer’s organization in kenya then on the law & the rigged election?
daily monitor: Step aside, LSK tells Kibaki

The Law Society of Kenya has demanded that President Kibaki resign, describing his swearing-in as illegal.
“President Kibaki was sworn in as a result of a faulty tallying exercise, contrary to Section 7 of the Constitution. The Attorney General has confirmed this finding. President Kibaki should, therefore, step down and fresh presidential elections held,” said LSK chairman Okong’o O’Mogeni.

jendayi advises kenyans to address the causes of unrest. what is the LSK’s position?

Mr Omogeni said: “Hon Kibaki lacks legitimacy to govern and this is the cause of the problems that we are facing in this country.
Consequently, a fresh election of President must be had within 90 days between the two leading candidates, as required by the law.”

jendayi says that since the ECK announced the results, the law says that it can only be addressed in the courts. what does the LSK spokesperson say?

He rejected the suggestion that since President Kibaki had been sworn in, the process should be accepted.
“To allow a heavily compromised and falsified election result to stand is to spell the death of electoral practice and democracy in Kenya forever,” Mr Omogeni added.
The LSK said its contention was based on reports it had received from 135 advocates contracted to observe the December 27 elections that indicated that the tallying process was flawed.
Mr O’Mogeni also cited ECK’s admission that the results were being tampered with, and Mr Kivuitu’s public admission that he could not tell who had won the election as well as Attorney General Amos Wako’s call for a recount.
“The ECK chairman, through his statements and that of other commissioners on consulting senior lawyers and petitioning the courts, are evidence enough that they did not have faith in the process they conducted,” he pointed out.

someone needs to call the u.s. on their hypocrisy & get ms. frazer out of the field & back into the (white) house.

Posted by: b real | Jan 8 2008 5:34 utc | 40

oxfam: An interview with Daniel Kiptugen, Oxfam’s Peace and Reconciliation Officer in Kenya

Can you give an example of the work you’ve been doing since the crisis broke out?
Yes, there was the case of this couple, both of them very sick. Some of the local youth were about to burn down the shelter these people were living in. The couple sent a message that I should go and intervene. They said they would rather be burned down than be moved from there. So I went with two of the Elders from the community and had a discussion with the youth. I told them they had to respect the sanctity of human life. I asked them where they expected this couple to go, and I asked how they would like it if they or their family members were put in this kind of situation? So these guys really felt ashamed.
…
What do you think is really behind the current violence?
Well in this case, the youth thought maybe the couple had been allocated their land unfairly, by outsiders. When we look at the causes of conflicts, it’s not simply what some people are saying, ethnic clashes. It’s really about poverty, about resources.
In Eldoret, there are a lot of disputes over land, and over the allocation of funds and support from the center. Who are they going to? Who are they not going to? Yes there is an ethnic aspect, but it’s more than that. Many people are coming to towns seeking employment but they can’t get it, they can’t get resources. Then despondency becomes ire.
Around here we have a lot of out-of-school youth who have no jobs. They have nothing to do and they don’t know how to channel their energy. The bitterness, it comes from inequality, lack of job opportunities. The elections provided people with an opportunity to vent their anger and frustration, but the anger was already there.
Were you surprised at the scale of the violence?
I must say I really think it could have been a lot worse.

Posted by: b real | Jan 8 2008 5:47 utc | 42

ory okolloh @ kenyan pundit

Breaking News…
Kibaki has just announced a new Cabinet on KBC.
One minute address. No condolences. No calls for peace. Nothing.
Kalonzo VP (what a snake). Other usual suspects back – Murungi, Karua (justice), Michuki, also Uhuru.
Announcement was only for half the cabinet (he doesn’t have enough guys…this is funny in a morbid kind of way).
Excuse me, but this is FUCKING INSANITY.
Just when Kenyans are desperately trying to get things back to normal.
And he expects Raila to come to the negotiating table on Friday.
Does Kibaki have a deathwish for Kenya?
Just who is running the country?
Off to have a double of something strong.

—
debs is dead – saw a kenyan blog post on the lucas sang story a week ago but cannot find it at the moment. can’t recall everything, but it is different than other reports i saw. the poster may have been from the same place. sang was travelling in a car to go rescue either a person or several people or maybe to look for a relative/friend who was missing – have read too much since then to recall all the details now. not sure how many people were in the vehicle, but it was attacked, & the poster said the driver got away (on foot?). sang’s body was found some time later & identified by pieces of his track suit. the poster said that his body had been burned & had deep gashes, as if there’d been a hacking rather than just stoning, and, when found, was partly eaten by a dog(s).
i see other reports which claim he was walking w/ friends when the mob attacked him. not sure which versions are closer to the truth (maybe the car was abandoned before the attack), but the blog post i saw seemed like it had inside information & gave information of how to help his family.
the class angle could be right on this. burning the corpse would seem to indicate that someone recognized him.
..some congresswoman eager to build her domestic profile..
frazer is the asst secretary of state for african affairs – other than condie, she’s the highest ranking state official on u.s. african policy.

Posted by: b real | Jan 8 2008 16:44 utc | 44

@44 intersting piece from, I think an Ethiopian opposition member, connecting Kenya-Ethiopia and our girl Jenday.
Kenya & Ethiopia: Jendayi Frazer, a Friend of Cheaters
@44 – The Kibaki group is not interested in the future of Kenya as a broad political comunity but only in monopolizing power and saving “their” Kenya. The election fraud was planned and a course of action outlined – if you notice Kibaki is essentially hidden at State house – with a few announcements being made. The only scenario that could lead to a re-election is if the U.S. pressures for it and/or if the Kikuyu elite and middle-class take the heat from the Kikuyu poor that have been victimized and a crack occurs – so far that is not in evidence. The only option remaining would be a continuation of the ‘internal’ pressure and the freezing of the government.
The new cabinet with ODM-K chair Kolonzo (who was always a self-interested sell out from the word go)makes sense in light of Kibaki’s strategy of trying to make the right “ethnic” mix and his call to open parliament on Jan 15 as a way of prying MP’s away from ODM while “talking” to Raila and taking the steam out of the streets. If Raila plays along ODM will find themselves alienating the “streets” while the massive popular demand for re-election will have lost the rallying point.
Raila seem’s to be walking a tight rope:

I have worked with Kibaki before. I have (no problem) working with Kibaki again,” Raila told Al Jazeera, but added: “It’s the role I will play that we will negotiate. We are prepared to walk the extra mile to bring peace to Kenya.

It is an insult to the people of Kenya. I should be the one offering him the option of a coalition government,” Raila, who has indicated that he would serve in an interim government if it is set up for the express purpose of amending the constitution to allow another election, asserted.

The Kibaki group will not be inclined to have a re-run election that they will certainly lose and since the U.S. has backed the option to go to the courts the dice has been rolled for ROUND 2 of Kenya’s election fraud.

Posted by: BenIAM | Jan 8 2008 17:55 utc | 46

my uninformed take:
Kibaki will go eventually. He has no legitimacy & no hope of getting any. And he will not benefit from a dividends-of-chaos strategy because Kenyans have to their credit refused to go over the brink. At least so far. And they will probably not. Odinga will offer Kibaki a deal — no prosecution or pursuit of him or his cronies if he leaves or agrees to new elections.
the 700-pound mountain gorilla in the room is the USA. And the bottom line right now looks more & more like its USA-interests vs. the-people-of-Kenya. And this is just not a posture the USA should ever want to be in. Not from a principled or practical standpoint.
and its also sad that such a profound & critical democratic struggle in Africa only gets press to the extent that Black “” are killing one another. There is a major disconnect between Africa & the West and its up to the West to catch up if it cares to.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 8 2008 21:24 utc | 48

the words of a columnist from zimbabwe here provide as good a summary as any other i’ve seen

Needless to say, Kenya plays a balancing factor in the East African turbulent region and is the centre of many international spying networks camouflaged as, business, humanitarian work and journalism.
So a Kibaki defeat was unthinkable to the grand masters in London and Washington as it could have upset the status quo. Following a number of surveys, it became clear that Kibaki was going and would loose cleanly to Odinga.
But Odinga’s credentials are generally not pleasing to international machinations. Consider this: He is the son of a man who wrote an influential book which called for economic independence. He was educated in East Germany at the height of the Cold War and has gone on to name his children Fidel Castro and Winnie Mandela! Aren’t Winnie and Castro populist leaders whose ideas are scary to the international community?
As the Langata MP, Odinga enjoys support of the volatile slums of Nairobi meaning he is a mover of that part of the population which could upset the status quo as overseen by the economists from the London School of Economics.
The speed with which Kibaki was sworn in amid complaints suggests a conspiracy. It was as if some grandmaster from the First World prodded him to rig the election and whispered into his ear: ‘Just rig the election and if there are complaints and violence, we will then say talk to each other. Don’t worry we will mediate.’
Meanwhile, the desired result was that Odinga should not be anywhere nearer power hence the haste in announcing Kibaki as the winner so that when the talks start, he begins from a strong point as the President and not just a feuding partner.
The idea was that as violence ensues, the international community would lament the blood shed and apportion blame, largely to Odinga’s supporters. Electoral rigging will then be down the scale as what will be important will be for bloodletting to stop, and through negotiation. Election fraud has been drained of its meaning.
Now the push for calm borders on the call for a dialogue and a coalition, and anybody who has other views as Odinga seems to have become a villain.
‘I want to see the possibility exposed where they can come together in government,” said Gordon Brown.
There it is in a nutshell. The master has said it.
This is to say that Odinga should agree to serve under Kibaki, a man whose victory is being doubted even by the Kenyan electoral body’s boss! A man who fired John Githongo for exposing corruption!
This is shambolic.

i haven’t followed the british angle on the situation in kenya outside of a few items i come across here & there, so i don’t know what people may be saying about british complicity in the rigging. they’d have deeper economic interests in supporting kibaki than the u.s., though i think that the latter’s influence — given the status of superpower & the GWOT, etc.. — is in charge. besides, as i linked above earlier, the economist came down hard on kibaki’s coup & called for the people’s voice to be respected. and the EU observers were making loud noises about the illegitimacy of the counts from the gitgo.

Posted by: b real | Jan 9 2008 4:26 utc | 50

east african standard: Frazer opposes fresh polls

A re-run of the disputed presidential elections will not solve the current crisis, a top US official has said.
US Assistant Secretary of State in charge of Africa, Ms Jendayi Frazer, said she believes a re-run of the elections was not the way forward.
Speaking in Kisumu on Tuesday, Frazer was, however, quick to add that the decision lies in the hands of Kenyan politicians.
“I don’t support calls for a re-run of the elections as the way forward. It is not my responsibility to decide for Kenyans on the matter. It is up to political leaders,” she said.
…
..Frazer said Kenyans were dejected and polarised, adding that a re-run would not save them.
She said the way forward was for the politicians to accommodate each other in a power-sharing strategy.
She said the proposed power-sharing plan should also be constitutionalised.
“Constitution reforms are important to set up institutions and strengthen them to deal with problems Kenyans face,” she added.

i sincerely hope that kenyans call the u.s. out on this nonsense

Posted by: b real | Jan 9 2008 16:09 utc | 52

BenIAM – thanks for the headsup on that
re the frazer comment in #52 – what i clipped out, but the article makes clear, frazer’s stmt was in response to an archbishop’s public declaration that “Kibaki has no authority to govern and he should immediately step aside for fresh presidential elections.”

Posted by: b real | Jan 9 2008 17:03 utc | 54

b real@52,
Jendayi does it again. What possible purpose does it serve the interests of the USA for her to publicly object to fresh-elections, in diametric opposition to the position of the impeccably broad-based alliance of Kenyan organizations listed in @55.
in objection to re-running an unwelcomed DNA test result, Jendayi might be the type who would ask — “What does it matter if your the biological father or not ?”

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 9 2008 19:30 utc | 56

from an ethiopian blog
Jendayi Frazer, a friend of cheaters!

Jendayi Frazer, USA diplomat, once again stood with the cheaters in Kenya like she did in May 2005 with the Ethiopian regime who stole election by killing protesters in the streets of Addis Ababa who went out for their voices to be heard.
Mr. Raila Odinga the opposition leader called off the planned street protest to pressure the regime to step down and the peoples vote to be respected after he talked to Jendayi Frazer of USA. Similar pressure was exerted by the USA Ambassadors to sabotage Ethiopians right to protest by organizing a meeting with the opposition leaders and we now know that was a big blunder by opposition leaders and they now regret it.
The Kenyan opposition pressured to call off street protest and go to Kibakli’s court by Jendayi Frazer is unjust and the millions who voted against Kibaki know that very well and Kenyans opposition are going to repeat what Ethiopians opposition did almost three years ago.
By equating public protest with violence our peoples right to protest is denied and that is good news for African dictators. Denying this right will open a door for armed rebellion and that is why many army officers and young activists are now joining armed resistance in all the corners of Ethiopia.
…
The shortsighted USA foreign policy in the Horn of Africa by standing with the known killers and human right abusers of the region will only force our people to fight for freedom. Jendayi Frazer is working for her country’s interest and she care less about freedom and what she achieved on her Kenya’s visit is “quite” Kenya to do business for foreigners.
Mwai Kibaki will be in power until he turns eighty years old and the Kenyan people anger that cost 500 people lives will be forgotten soon and tourists will flock to Kenya, that is what Jendayi Frazer will call it freedom and democracy, African style.

Posted by: b real | Jan 10 2008 5:25 utc | 58

@57,
Odinga (ODM) scores a huge victory by meeting with Kibaki:
1) firmly elevates his cause & person to the highest level
2) irreversibly establishes the election as a national crisis that must be dealt with before the country can move on
3) demonstrates a willingness to be reconciliatory & states-man-like
4) provides a face-to-face opportunity to offer Kibaki a deal
5) compels Kibaki to begin talking in practical/realistic terms
Kibaki is now backed even deeper into the corner. He can’t go on as president as if all is well. And ODM will not accept any power-sharing deal that denies it executive power, or at least the bulk of it.
and this talk of power-sharing via constitutional changes is highly questionable. Kenyans will ask why a constitution thats been OK for 50 years suddenly needs to be changed when the real problem is clear — a stolen election. Power-sharing agreements are highly problematic to work out or to practice. Lebanon is a good example. Many Kenyans will view half-baked changes to their constitution with great alarm. Especially if its done to protect a president/party that should not be there in the first place. Besides, a power-sharing agreement put in place to protect Kibaki’s party could in effect end up dividing it & possibly undermining it.
this thing is unwinding, and thankfully its happening peacefully. And as they get into the nitty-gritty, a realistic solution that does honor to the election should emerge.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 10 2008 8:19 utc | 60

@ b real I was in a meeting and could not listen but that is interesting. Although what U.S. audiences ‘hear’ is not a major factor at this point of the game.
Kiai has been vocal on pointing out to the recruitment of a Kikuyu gang by the Kibaki group to confront ODM supporters and any who are out on the streets. This is a group that has been in the slums of Nairobi for some time and is seeking to “win” like ODM-K’s Kalonzo.
Mun

Posted by: BenIAM | Jan 10 2008 18:04 utc | 62

Thanks b real and BenIAM for keeping us updated on this. I lack time and knowledge to follow the issue myself so I really appreciate your contributions.

Posted by: b | Jan 10 2008 21:37 utc | 64

Kibaki fails to show-up for talks with Odinga
looks like Kibaki thinks he can weather the storm if he can buy enough time. So Odinga gets played and is sure to harden his stance. Todays lesson is — Kibaki & his entourage of handlers/advisers from USA/West are playing games.
Its very sad that it now seems like there may be more unrest (hopefully peaceful if we’re lucky) coming before Kibaki & Co. see the writing on the wall.
and the so-so civilized Western powers patiently look on like they really really have nothing to do with whats going on. After all its the Blacks who can’t seem to get their act together.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 10 2008 23:47 utc | 66

i completely missed the story on IRI & exit polls
from jan 3rd
Kenya: “Slate Says IRI Is Sitting on Exit Poll”

And speaking of the International Republican Institute in Kenya, about which I have argued

the role of the International Republican Institute in this election … needs to be probed harder than the prostate of a 70-year-old life-long chainsmoker …

… Robert Baird notes:

Today at Slate, Alex Halperin wonders why a Kenyan exit poll sponsored by the International Republican Institute hasn’t been released to the public:

…
The paragraphs in question:

Unfortunately, one bit of data has not surfaced. The International Republican Institute, a democracy-fostering nonprofit funded by the U.S. government—and despite the name, officially nonpartisan—commissioned an Election Day exit poll but has declined to release the results. Two people familiar with the results told me that they showed Odinga with a substantial lead over President Kibaki—one reported eight points, the other nine points. One has only to remember the United States’ 2004 elections to know how fallible exit polls are, but a U.S.-sponsored survey would have weight here and could have given the ECK pause before it called the election so disastrously.
Ken Flottman, an official in the IRI’s Nairobi office, said the data would serve additional purposes, such as studying voter demographics. The organization issued a statement criticizing the vote counting but does not mention its data. It missed an opportunity to advance its mission of promoting democracy and fair elections.

The Kenyan statistics body should subpoena those results or throw somebody in a Kenyan jail trying.

that slate article is dated jan 02
What’s Really Going On in Kenya? And why didn’t a U.S.-funded group release its exit-poll data?
but the meat was quoted above in the post at colin brayton’s blog. good stuff there worth checking out.
some new commentary & analysis up today at pambazuka news, including
The US and Kenya: Tragic setback for democracy in Africa

In the immediate aftermath of the recent elections in Kenya, the Bush Administration wasted no time in sending its glowing congratulations to incumbent President Mwai Kibaki and the Kenyan Election Commission. But despite the subsequent attempt to ignore the congratulatory message, and adamant claim of a global commitment to democracy, the Bush Administration’s official stamp of approval for Kibaki and the elections reflected a de facto endorsement of a naked power grab and contempt for the democratic process.
To be sure, the Bush administration’s eagerness to embrace a stage-managed election reveals a sharp inconsistency between pronouncement and practice — declining to support calls for a re-count and urging “all candidates to accept the Commission’s final result.” Some would argue that the Bush focus on security and economic interest supersede its rhetoric for democracy. Clearly, the Bush statement and its later about-face joint statement with Kenya’s former colonial masters –the British- reflects morally bankrupt policies which only see Kenya as a staunch ally and “frontline state in the global war on terrorism.”
The Kenyan people participated in a democratic process to elect the representatives of their choice. When the election results were leaning toward the challenger and long time pro-democracy activist, Raila Odinga, the democratic process was over taken by manipulation and fraud. How can a U.S. Administration that preaches democracy in almost biblical terms refuse to pressure the Kenyan government for a re-count or an independent audit? Of course, this question may strike some Americans as naïve in the light of the Florida and Ohio fiascos in our own 2000 & 2004 presidential elections.
…
We have seen the U.S. government prioritizing its security concerns over democracy promotion in Africa before. Who can ever forget the shameful April 2007 elections in Nigeria, which provides the US with 12% of its oil needs? Nigerians refer to that election as the most fraudulent elections ever held in the country. Despite calls for electoral reform, official U.S. congratulations to Yar’Adua were followed by a recent White House visit, which ended with Yar’Adua promoting the establishment of the U.S. African Military Command that could potentially place U.S. soldiers throughout the continent despite opposition in Nigeria. No wonder many believe there is scant U.S. commitment to global democracy when its economic and military interests are relevant. The Bush Administration’s policies appear to respond to narrow, ill-perceived security and economic imperatives that will ultimately lead to long-term instability in Kenya and other parts of Africa.
It is more than noteworthy that as the 2005 Ethiopian elections were being won by the opposition at such an unprecedented rate that the Melis government intervened and halted the announcement of results. After a series of recounts and adjudication trails, which the opposition was not prepared for, it was once again business as usual, a witch’s brew of repression and torture. The arrest and detention on treason charges of all major opposition leaders followed. The Bush administration, which also sees Ethiopia as a staunch ally in the war on terror who is more than willing to do its bidding in Somalia, offered congratulations to Melis on his victory and urged “dialogue” and “reconciliation.”
As the optimism of the 1990s has given way to the more vexing problem of making democracy deliver on its promises, the past few years have been filled with setbacks for the democratic process in Africa, with the possible exceptions of the 2005 elections in Liberia and the 2007 elections in Sierra Leone. And the U.S. has been largely silent in its actions to reverse those setbacks.
…
The issue here is about power and the future of democracy in Africa not ethnic rivalries. Unfortunately some of the big men in Africa, as in other parts of the world, have not realized how to share power or to let it go when the will of the people is against their continued stay in office. There are those who talk about freedom and democracy but practice autocratic policies, they never really believed in the will of the people to begin with. What will be the world’s response to the farce currently underway in Kenya? Democracy in Africa or business as usual?

Posted by: b real | Jan 11 2008 4:41 utc | 68

daniel volman: U.S. Military Activities in Kenya

(Jaunuary 05, 2008) Now that President George Bush’s special envoy to the Kenyan crisis, Jendayi Fraser (US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs) has admitted that the elections in Kenya were seriously flawed (a polite way of saying they are fraudulent) and ordered President Mwai Kibaki to meet the opposition leader, Raile Odinga, it is easy to forget that the United States Ambassador in Kenya only weeks ago declared the elections free and fair.
But neither position is contradictory as the US is heavily invested in stability in Kenya.
Kenya has long been a key military partner of the United States and a major African recipient of U.S. military assistance.
The Pentagon gave Kenya $1.6 million worth of weaponry and other military assistance in 2006 and an estimated $2.5 million in 2007 through its Foreign Military Sales Program. In 2008 the Bush Administration expects to provide Kenya with $800,000 in Foreign Military Financing Program funds to pay for further arms purchases. Kenya has also been permitted to make large arms deals directly with private American arms producers through the State Department’s Direct Commercial Sales Program. Kenya took deliver of $1.9 million worth of arms this way in 2005, got an estimated $867,000 worth in 2007, and is expected to receive another $3.1 million worth this year.
In addition, the Bush Administration intends to spend $550,000 in 2008 to train Kenyan military officers in the United States through the International Military Education and Training Program at military academies and other military educational institutions in the United States.
The United States is also providing training and equipment to Kenya’s military, internal security, and police forces through several global and regional programs. These include, the:
• The East Africa Counter-Terrorism Initiative established in 2003 as a multi-year program with $100 million in funding to provide training to Kenya as well as to Uganda, Tanzania, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Ethiopia.
• The Anti-Terrorism Assistance (ATA) Program was created in 1983—under the administration of the State Department Bureau of Diplomatic Security—to provide training, equipment, and technology to countries all around the world to support their participation in America’s Global War on Terrorism. The largest ATA program in Africa is targeted at Kenya, where it helped created the Kenyan Antiterrorism Police Unit (KAPU) in 2004 to conduct anti-terrorism operations, the Joint Terrorism Task Force in 2004 to coordinate anti-terrorism activities (although the unit was disbanded by the Kenyan government in 2005, and is now training and equipping members of a multi-agency, coast guard-type unit to patrol Kenya’s coastal waters. Between 2003 and 2005 (the most recent years for which this information is available), ATA provided training both in Kenya and in the United States to 454 Kenyan police, internal security, and military officers.
The creation of the KAPU was financed with $10 million IN 2003, along with $622,000 from ATA; the ATA spent $21 million on training for Kenya in 2004, $3.5 in 2005, and another $3.2 in 2006. The Bush administration requested $2.9 for 2007 and an additional $5.5 in 2008.
• The Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA) was created in October 2002 to conduct naval and aerial patrols in the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and the eastern Indian Ocean as part of the effort to detect and counter the activities of terrorist groups in the region. The CJTF-FOA used military facilities in Kenya as well as in Djibouti and Ethiopia to launch air and naval strikes against alleged al-Qaeda members involved in the Council of Islamic Courts in Somalia in January and June of 2007.
In addition, the Bush administration has negotiated base access agreements with the government of Kenya—along with the governments of Gabon, Mali, Morocco, Tunisia, Namibia, Sao Tome, Senegal, Uganda, and Zambia—that will allow American troops to use their military facilities (know as Cooperative Security Locations and Forward Operating Sites) whenever the United States wants to deploy its own troops in Africa.
The Bush Administration has built a close military relationship with the government of Mwai Kibaki and has played a central role in the creation of his internal security apparatus, now being deployed with such bloody results throughout Kenya.
The United States, thus, has a direct responsibility for what is going on in Kenya and for bringing it to an end. Jendayi Frazer has certainly surprised many outside the US with her most recent comments, but one can be sure that also has US military priorities in mind when she urges Kenyans to end the violence.
* Daniel Volman is Director of the African Security Research Project in Washington, DC, and a member of the Board of Directors of the Association of Concerned Africa Scholars. He is a specialist on U.S. military policy toward Africa and African security issues.

Posted by: b real | Jan 11 2008 16:26 utc | 70

THREATS TO THE SAFETY OF MAINA KIAI AND OTHERS

Statement from concerned citizens and governance, human rights and legal organizations on Safety of Human Rights Defenders
We speak in the name of Kenya’s governance, human rights and legal organizations, as well as the concerned citizens who have contacted and chosen to work with us over the last two weeks.
We have been meeting and organising for the past two weeks in order to understand and make public what happened with the counting and tallying process of our Presidential vote, as well as the nature of the violence experienced across the country since. With respect to the former, it has been our considered and informed opinion that the electoral malpractices — and illegalities — experienced invalidate the swearing in of Mwai Kibaki. With respect to the latter, it has been our considered and informed opinion that the violence being experienced is of four forms — disorganised and spontaneous protest expressed anarchically; organised militia activity first in the Rift Valley and now in Central and Nyanza; disproportionate use of force by the Kenya Police Force and the General Service Unit; and, more recently, retributive communal actions inspired by the experiences narrated by the inflow of internally displaced persons. We have consistently condemned all four forms.
We have also continually reiterated the need for the Kenyan Police Force and the General Service Unit to respect the right of all Kenyans to the freedoms of expression, assembly and association to respond — in a legal and legitimate manner — to both the counting and tallying process of our Presidential vote as well as the violence experienced across the country since. We have supported citizens’ desires to come together to do so while compiling our empirical evidence on the same for imminent release to the public. And we have engaged with interested political actors as well as those involved within the mediation process to seek meaningful ways forward that will secure sustainable peace on the basis of electoral truth and electoral and post-electoral justice.
We stress, in the strongest possible terms, that it is within our rights as individual citizens and within the legally recognised mandates of our various institutions and organisations to have done so — and continue to do so. We therefore note, with the deepest of concerns, information received from no less than four sources within the Kenyan Police Force and the National Security Intelligence Service, that points to the personal safety and security of some of our members now being at risk for having done so — most notably (but not only) that of Maina Kiai, Chair of the Kenya National Commission of Human Rights. We have been advised by these sources of a special unit being formed to consider methods for our neutralisation and warned to be cautious while driving alone or at night as the most obvious of methods would be to mask the deliberate targeting of ourselves as common criminality, such as by carjacking or calculated road accidents.
We wish to stress that we do not take this information lightly. While we may consider our efforts almost insignificant in light of their immediate impact on the bigger goings-on around us, we are aware that in today’s highly charged political atmosphere, the expression of and action on independent opinion is considered politically partisan — particularly when by those of us who have consciously broken away from the ethnically – aligned and near hegemonic positions being propounded by, in particular, political actors aligned with the man sworn in as President.
We therefore take this opportunity to formally inform Major General Hussein Ali, Commissioner of the Police, of this information and to ask that he investigate the information received as a matter of urgency. We also take this opportunity to formally inform the persons sworn in as Minister of Internal Security and Minister of Justice and Constitutional Affairs of these threats and urge them to provide direction to all arms of Kenya’s intelligence and security services that is within the limits of our Constitution and laws. Again, it is within our rights as citizens and as institutions and organisations mandated to be mobilising and organising as we are. And we consider it our patriotic duty to be doing so — in the interest of peace with electoral truth and justice. Our personal safety and security as human rights defenders must be upheld at all times.
Signed:
Africa Centre for Open Governance (AfriCOG)
Awaaz
Centre for Law and Research International (CLARION)
Centre for Multiparty Democracy (CMD)
Centre for Rights, Education and Awareness for Women (CREAW)
(CRADLE)
Constitution and Reform Education Consortium (CRECO)
East African Law Society (EALS)
Haki Focus
Hema la Katiba
Independent Medico-Legal Unit (IMLU)
Innovative Lawyering
Institute for Education in Democracy (IED)
International Commission of Jurists (ICJ-Kenya)
Kenya Human Rights Commission (KHRC)
Kenya Leadership Institute (KLI)
Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR)
Kituo cha Sheria
Law Society of Kenya (LSK)
Media Institute
Muslim Human Rights Forum
National Constitution Executive Council (NCEC)
Release Political Prisoners (RPP)
Society for International Development (SID)
Urgent Action Fund (UAF)-Africa
Youth Agenda

Posted by: b real | Jan 11 2008 23:02 utc | 72

Jeffrey Gettleman of the NYT – who was kicked out of Ethiopia for reporting on the state orchestrated killings of civilians in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia which borders and shares religious and cultural ties with Somalia – reports on the stalemate in Kenya.
The President is not Crazy

Mwai Kibaki, the president, and Raila Odinga, the top opposition leader, still have refused to meet.
“The Kibaki side does not want a just solution,” Anyang Nyong’o, an opposition leader, said on Friday. “It is hellbent on clinging to power.”
Alfred Mutua, a government spokesman, responded by saying that opposition leaders “have ashamed our country.”
As for the opposition’s call for a new election and a transitional government, Mr. Mutua said,
“The president is not crazy; he is not nuts.”

Perhaps 2 things worthy of mention … First, after all the “international fanfare” the paper of record, even by a decent reporter, has already inadvertently recognized the illegitimacy of the Kibaki group’s actions by calling him PRESIDENT in contrast to Raila who remains a leading opposition candidate. The Kibaki group was very calculating when they insured that Kibaki was quickly sworn into office 15 minutes after the ECK Chair was forced to announce the “winning numbers” and it has paid off by creating its own reality.
ECK Chief Disowns Elections Results Again
Aside from the triviality of the NYT – the real issue of power – that Kibaki controls the organs of the state, named a working cabinet, has been willing and able to sacrifice Kikuyu’s in Rift Valley and has by all accounts REFUSED to, as his spokesperson said, go “nuts” has put the nail in the coffin for a peaceful face saving measure. We should – in the absence of legitimacy – expect more violence from Kibaki’s group resorting to “targeted” killings and making use of massive coercive force – while ODM will seek to insure a majority in parliament on Jan. 15 and clinch the speaker of the house position so as to call for a vote of no confidence leading to new elections in 3 months time. I guess that sums up the depressing scenario.
Thanks to b_real and jony_b_cool for the nice updates.

Posted by: BenIAM | Jan 12 2008 6:16 utc | 74

only have time for a couple from sunday’s east african standard
Alarm over alleged presence of Ugandan troops in Kenya

Armed Ugandan soldiers are allegedly crossing into Kenya.
Busia residents told The Sunday Standard that some Ugandan troops have been sighted in town and in Port Victoria along River Suo.
“They are scattered all over along the borders with some patrolling along Lake Victoria,” said a secondary school teacher in Budalang’i District.
According to Nambale MP-elect, Mr Chris Okemo, some of the soldiers have reportedly crossed “no-man’s-land” borderline to Busia town on the Kenyan side.
“We have received reports that a number of strangers, whose mission is unknown, have been spotted in groups. We are still investigating the claims,” he said.
Bondo MP-elect Dr Oburu Oginga also claimed that people in Ugandan military gear docked at Mageta Island last evening in batches.
“The first batch of 12 soldiers who spoke strange Kiswahili arrived at Mageta Island past 5pm on Friday and asked for directions to Usenge and Uhanya beach,” Oburu said.
Oburu said he informed police in Bondo after more soldiers allegedly landed at Mageta two hours later.
“We are concerned with these strange military personnel in the area. The residents are worried,” Oburu said.
…
imilar strange military arrivals were reported in Bungoma, where they allegedly boarded six buses.
…
Ugandan authorities have denied that its soldiers had crossed into Kenya.
Museveni’s Media advisor, Mr John Nagenda, on Sunday denied the claims.
Uganda’s Army spokesman, Captain Paddy Ankunda, also refuted the claims.
He said the only Ugandan soldiers in Kenya are training at the Karen Defence College in Nairobi.

more from jendayi’s (extended) mission to kenya as adviser to kibaki
World watches Kenya

African Union’s (AU) mediator between President Kibaki and Mr Raila Odinga has asked political leaders not to take any further steps that would compromise the search for peace.
The US declared support for the latest peace initiative, with a raft of demands on ODM and the Government.
…
President Kibaki called for reconciliation a day after ODM called for mass action. He said there was no need to harbour grudges against each other.
“Let’s all forget the past and preach peace and reconciliation,” he said.
…
“In our view, it is imperative for President Kibaki and Raila Odinga to sit together directly and without preconditions to discuss how to end the post-election crisis in a way that reflects the will of the Kenyan people,’’ said the Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Dr Jendayi Frazer.
The US called for respect for the rule of law and the peoples’ right to assemble, as well as media freedom.
“We favoured no side during the electoral contest. We supported efforts to carry out transparent and fair elections. [You never heard the State Department or Ambassador Ranneberger rush to congratulate President Kibaki within hours of his swearing-in ceremony.] The generally peaceful and orderly voting process, and the record voter turnout, was a triumph for the Kenyan people, but the serious flaws in the vote tallying damaged the credibility of the process,’’ said the superpower.
…
Frazer emphasised the fact that Kenyans believed the deadlock could be unlocked through a power-sharing arrangement.
Frazer added: “Both should acknowledge serious irregularities in the vote tallying, which made it impossible to determine with certainty the final result, and both must take forthright steps to end violence and ensure respect for the rule of law, consistent with respect for human rights.”
The statement whose tone appear to harden compared to previous ones issued went on: “This particularly includes restoration of media freedom and freedom of peaceful assembly. We believe the Kenyan people have made clear that the way forward must embrace equitable power-sharing, an end to violence, reconciliation, and agreement on a specific agenda for constitutional and electoral reform.”
…
The US, however, insisted, “the post-electoral crisis can only be resolved through a Kenyan solution.”
“In the meantime, the United States cannot conduct business as usual in Kenya. The Kenyan people recognise that the post-electoral crisis has revealed longstanding problems that must not be ignored. As a close friend and partner of Kenya, the United States will remain intensively engaged to help encourage resolution of the post-electoral crisis. We are convinced that Kenyans will achieve this, and that the country will emerge out of this crisis a stronger and more just democratic society,’’ the statement ran.

why are kenyans still allowing outsiders to handle their affairs?

Posted by: b real | Jan 12 2008 22:52 utc | 76

* 76 and 77
I agree that something has been up in Western Kenya – Nyanza province – from the 2nd week of the post-election civil unrest.
Uganda’s Musevini,the 1st and only African to have congratulated Kibaki, and Raila Odinga are not the best of friends since Raila was allied with Milton Obote (whom Museveni had overthrown in a coup in the 1980s). Perhaps there is something brewing b/n Museveni and Kibaki with a US green light – aside from insuring access to Mombasa.
Anyway – The Amani Forum is holding an investigation of the reports of Ugandan trooops in Western Kenya.
Ugandan Troops in Kenya

THE Amani Forum, a regional grouping of Parliamentarians from the Great Lakes Region has declared an urgent probe into the alleged presence of Ugandan gunmen in the Western Kenyan port near Kisumu.
The Chairperson of Amani-Uganda, Ms Betty Amongi Ongom, accompanied by a host of MPs, told reporters at Parliament on Thursday that to speed up the investigations,the forum is sending a fact-finding delegation to Kenya to arrive in Nairobi on January 13.
“We have heard rumours that Ugandan gunmen have killed civilians in Kisumu. But as Amani Forum, we don’t act on hearsay,that’s why we are sending a delegation on a fact-finding mission,” Ms Amongi said.
The probe comes days after Kenyan opposition leader,Raila Odinga alleged during an interview on KFM’s Hot Seat talk show on Tuesday that he had called President Yoweri Museveni protesting the presence of Ugandan gunmen in the lakeside city of Kisumu.

Posted by: BenIAM | Jan 13 2008 5:02 utc | 78

Thanks 79,
by the way, its highly significant that Kibaki has not moved to arrest Odinga & lock him up. Which means Kibaki is a “lite-weight” dictator. The fact is he would if he could. Kind of like being half-pregnant, its not a stable or sustainable state.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 13 2008 6:28 utc | 80

made an acquaintance tonite w/ a kenyan who has regular daily contacts back home (family in western kenya, friends in ODM).
the increased activity in ugandan soliders coming across the border this weekend are in anticipation of the three days of mass opposition protests across the nation scheduled for next week.
this is an important message to get out widely. if this is indeed accurate – and i have plenty of reason to believe that it is more just rumour – and the mass protests proceed as scheduled, there will be many more deaths of innocent people this week. this is why it is important to direct attention to it. by raising international pressure on the govts of kenya, uganda, & the united states, it may be possible to influence how this plays out. what exactly was CJTF-HOA’s gen. hunt doing in uganda last week??? (mentioned in first link in #39 above.) where do these weapons that the govt forces & mercenaries are using to kill unarmed kenyas come from? who trains and/or trained these forces? these are some of the key questions that need to be pursued.
the earlier reports of ugandan activity in kenya that we have been pointing out throughout this thread are not rumours. ugandan mercenaries were used in the initial days to fire upon protestors and to incite & provoke violence throughout the rift valley. the kenyan govt feared that it could not count on it’s own forces to initially fire upon their own peoples, hence the use of ugandans, reportedly in kenyan police uniforms.
my contact states that he was told that ugandan provocateurs were actually responsible for the much-covered church burning. kibaki’s people have calculated that way to get away w/ their coup is through wide-spread repression & a high casualty rate in order to secure a win by quick attrition. i already pointed out the consensus at the woodrow wilson institute panel on thursday that kibaki’s party cynically & deliberately sacrificed their own people – kikuyu in the west – so to think that they would think twice, on their own, about killing more protestors is naive.
the ODM is betting that it can bring kibaki to his knees thru economic means – eventually the western investors will decide that they cannot take any more of a hit & likely demand kibaki’s head on a platter. that is why the mass protests next week will probably go ahead, unlike the earlier attempts, which were either prevented through a large, aggressive police presence, or cancelled by the ODM at the last hours. the protests this week, however, are scheduled for three full days, spread across the country in at least 16 cities. this, according to kenyans in the western region, is the reason why ugandan forces have been seen moving into kenya.
critical actions required

Posted by: b real | Jan 13 2008 7:55 utc | 82

b real,
I agree this matter demands the utmost critical attention. The introduction of Ugandan forces/operatives into Western Kenya is very troubling and at this point, anything is possible. I agree that if a front-pager with the most useful narrative can be assembled, lives may be saved.
We cannot at this point say — “we did not know …”
and by the way, 82 is an excellent capture of the current situation

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 13 2008 11:51 utc | 84

BenIAM – that’s from onyango oloo’s post @ jukwaa & i’m already incorporating parts from it into the analysis i’m in the middle of writing. i’m giving myself another six hours to wrap this up & will then submit it to b for posting. from there it can be collaboratively critiqued, enhanced, revised, spun-off — whatever — as needed into a form (or formats) that stands up as a solid, accessible resource and which can then be more widely circulated. that seems to me to be the easiest & most expedient initial approach, as i already have a wealth of clippings & saved documents at hand to lead off. feedback & input will be much appreciated in the next phases. thanks for the links, all.

Posted by: b real | Jan 13 2008 23:07 utc | 86

now the Europeans can see the writing on the wall, and the USA will likewise, and they will dump Kibaki if he gets too hot. There is little doubt that Kibaki remains very vulnerable if things do’nt start to settle down or get worse.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Jan 15 2008 6:52 utc | 88