Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
December 15, 2007
Income Disparity Depression

This is the State of the Union:

The poorest fifth of households had total income of $383.4 billion in 2005, while just the increase in income for the top 1 percent came to $524.8 billion, a figure 37 percent higher.
[…]
Earlier reports, based on tax returns, showed that in 2005 the top 10 percent, top 1 percent and fractions of the top 1 percent enjoyed their greatest share of income since 1928 and 1929.

[…]
On average, incomes for the top 1 percent of households rose by $465,700 each, or 42.6 percent after adjusting for inflation. The incomes of the poorest fifth rose by $200, or 1.3 percent, and the middle fifth increased by $2,400 or 4.3 percent.

The consequences:

The 1920s "boom" enriched only a fraction of the American people. Earnings for farmers and industrial workers stagnated or fell. While this represented lower production costs for companies, it also precluded growth in consumer demand.  Thus, by the mid 1920s the ability of most Americans to purchase new automobiles, new houses and other durable goods was beginning to weaken.

This weakening demand was masked, however, by the "great bull market" in stocks on the New York Stock Exchange. The ever-growing price for stocks was, in part, the result of greater wealth concentration within the investor class. Eventually the Wall Street stock exchange began to take on a dangerous aura of invincibility, leading investors to ignore less optimistic indicators in the economy.  Over-investment and speculating (gambling) in stocks further inflated their prices, contributing to the illusion of a robust economy.

The crucial point came in the 1920s when banks began to loan money to stock-buyers since stocks were the hottest commodity in the marketplace. Banks allowed Wall Street investors to use the stocks themselves as collateral. If the stocks dropped in value, and investors could not repay the banks, the banks would be left holding near-worthless collateral. Banks would then go broke, pulling productive businesses down with them as they called in loans and foreclosed mortgages in a desperate attempt to stay afloat.

The replay of the 1920s stock market delusion in 2000/2001 was staved off by Alan Greenspan’s rate cuts. These allowed the economic illnesses to fester.

Much too low Fed interest rates induced a housing and mortgage bubble, camouflaging the drop in income that happened all the while with home equity withdrawals.

Now that bubble bursted too. The value of homes will sink by 30 or so percent, putting millions into a situation that makes it preferable to send in the keys and just leave the house to the mortgage owner, whoever may be that (you may want to ask your pension fund about its MBS investment?)

We therefore have to modify the last quoted paragraph:

Banks allowed housing investors to use the houses themselves as collateral. If the houses dropped in value, and investors could not repay the banks, the banks would be left holding near-worthless collateral. Banks would then go broke, pulling productive businesses down with them …

Lack of demand – who will go out to buy a car or eat out if there’s no money – and lack of credit even for decent businesses … that’s where we are again.

The top 1.1 million households will not eat more or drive more cars, no matter how much their income increases. The mass of people will have to lower their consumption as they make less and can’t borrow anymore. This is the recipe for another depression.

You want to to avoid this?

Tax the top 1% of households income with 80%, the top 2-10% of households at 60+%. Invest that government money gain in infrastructure, especially for energy independence, through small companies’ contracts. Keep out of wars.

There you are.

Comments

Tax the top 1% of households income with 80%, the top 2-10% of households at 60+%. Invest that government money gain in infrastructure, especially for energy independence, through small companies’ contracts. Keep out of wars.
seems pretty simple, doesn’t it?
unfortunately the numbers don’t help us. even though the poor vastly outnumber the rich they are helpless to do anything about their plight. In a prison, the prisoners could very easily be 100 for every guard yet the guards make the rules and have the resources to enforce those rules.
as with prisoners, we have many stooges and informers among us as well as those who dream of becoming guards themselves.
it seems to me that things still have to get a lot worse before it will get better.
sorry, I am feeling pretty damn miserable about the whole shooting match right now.

Posted by: dan of steele | Dec 15 2007 22:02 utc | 1

“sometimes i think
this whole big world
is a big prison yard
some of us are prisoners
some of us are guards”
bob dylan

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Dec 15 2007 22:31 utc | 2

For those who think they understand China and view China as a vast untapped consumer
market which will one day save US, if we can just adjust the yuan in our favor, it’s
time to rub the sleep out of your eyes. The best you can hope is sending your kids to
a junior college so they can teach English to Chinese overlord’s children, and juggle
billiards as an amusement. “Look, mommy, look at the stupid gaijin trying to juggle!”
That leaves EU, last time I checked, US product quality doesn’t meet EU standards.
That leaves RU, even they are getting a little tired of adulterated farm products.
That leaves SA:MX, and people have been saying Brazil will be the greatest consuming
nation on earth for over two decades. Apres les Brazilia and the MX bailout, they’ve
dropped off the map, except the immigration news their economies are being wrecked.
That leaves AF. Ahh, our proto-heritage, back to the Great Rift Valley. Ahah, ahah.
DOS is right, though. Things are going to get a lot worse, and under the Democrats.
They’re basically being handed 2000 on a s–t sandwich, on the deck of the Titanic.
Excepting Kennedy’s Neo-Republican Lunar Great Leap Forward, Democrats suck at GDP.
There are going to be great leaps forward in energy efficiency, that we won’t share.
Retail Chinese gew-gahs, retail Bio-Pharm junk “food”, exporting natural resources,
your basic Depression-Era Mom and Pop Little Farming Town in the Dust Bowl Economy.
Drive up and down Main Street at night, grab a Morbidly Obese Burger, hit You Tube.
Think it can’t happen? Aboriginals sat around a smokey fire naked for 60,000 years.

Posted by: Bela Lugosi | Dec 15 2007 22:44 utc | 3

Disparity despair – I recommend b real’s link to the auli music.
Also this is a bright note:
modern day philanthropists

Since 2000, Husnu M. Ozyegin has spent more than $50 million of his own money, building 36 primary schools and girls’ dormitories in the poorest parts of Turkey. Next to the Turkish government, Mr. Ozyegin is the biggest individual supporter of schools in the country — and an official from the education ministry has told him that his market share is increasing.

Great link to the Great Depression, b. Thanks. Couldn’t get through the day and half the night without MoA.

Posted by: Hamburger | Dec 16 2007 0:09 utc | 4

me too

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Dec 16 2007 0:14 utc | 5

I think it really IS as simple as that – the rich invent financial instruments that make money flow only upward, until the lower 9/10’s of the pyramid have nothing to spend – then the system crashes. Of course it could be easily prevented, but it wont because like the lizard that must bite the frog (who just saved his life) its just in they’re nature to do so. Or rather, the nature of capitalism to do so.

Posted by: anna missed | Dec 16 2007 2:06 utc | 6

Tax the top 1% of households income with 80%, the top 2-10% of households at 60+%
Hah! They might be quite happy with that. You know what would happen? No more middle class. The billionaires, the racketeers, the off-shore folks don’t pay any any fucking tax anyway.
Maybe they can force wages down. So what if your personal consumption can’t keep up? – there are many millions who will work three jobs if that’s what it takes to buy what “middle class” European and Americans can no longer afford. Mexico might save America.
I read with great interest (and liberal dozes of salt) – all the fascinating figures that make this look like a replay of 1929.
But then again, maybe the “this time it is different” crowd are right. Maybe deficits don’t matter, And history? – we’ll all be dead – right?
This could spin this out for another 40 years or so. After another few wars, who knows where the chips will fall?

Posted by: DM | Dec 16 2007 3:49 utc | 7

@DM – You know what would happen? No more middle class.
Why? The middle class got build when there were high taxes on the rich.

Posted by: b | Dec 16 2007 15:37 utc | 8

“now I’m finding out there’s just one kind of war,
the one going on ‘tween the rich and the poor”
Utah Phillips

Posted by: Sgt Dan | Dec 16 2007 17:19 utc | 9

“now I’m finding out there’s just one kind of war,
the one going on ‘tween the rich and the poor”
– yes, that is what is going to happen. Time it will take.

Posted by: Tangerine | Dec 16 2007 18:35 utc | 10

I’ve been thinking about it, and this whole income disparity/no health care situation which the PTB does everything they can to exacerbate might be an aggressive program to eradicate diabetes from the genome. By creating a situation in which people can only afford a diet that ensures that if they can contract diabetes they will, and then making treatment for it (or anything else) cost prohibitive, they’ve effectively created a selective pressure which should wipe out everything but the human equivalent of a cockroach (viz. “won’t die from anything short of a supernova”) in about two or three generations.
Could be that this is all just compassionate eugenics at work. I, for one, would like to welcome our new genetically culled overlords. Sucks to be you, Wilford Brimley.

Posted by: Monolycus | Dec 17 2007 4:07 utc | 11

it’s Monday morning in Asia and the markets are tanking big time.Down, down, down.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Dec 17 2007 10:46 utc | 12

Just to be a stickler, it was late Monday night in EastAsia when you posted, Unca. It was already past noon on Monday when I posted before you.
But, yeah. That looks hideous.

Posted by: Monolycus | Dec 17 2007 14:22 utc | 13