|
Bee Bee Killed
Pakistan’s Bhutto killed by bombing
RAWALPINDI, Pakistan – Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Thursday in a suicide bombing that also killed at least 20 others at a campaign rally, a party aide and a military official said.
First thoughts:
1. Who did it?
Many people will point to Musharraf, as being behind the assassination, but according to the BBC, someone shot Bhutto and then blew himself up. Suicide bombing is not the hallmark of the Pakistani military, but of the takfiris.
Bhutto had promised to fight the U.S.’s war of terror against the Taliban and takfiris in the tribal North West Frontier State, certainly reason enough for those folks to kill her.
Then again, the big winner in this is Musharraf.
2. What will happen to the election?
According to polls, Bhutto’s PPP party would have gotten some 30% of the votes, the PML-N of Saudi favorite Nawaz Sharif 25% and Musharraf’s PML-Q 23%.
Without Bhutto the PPP will have much less ‘pull’ and the race will most likely go to Sharif. But as he has more or less promised to oust Musharraf for his blantant illegal behaviour, we can expect that Musharraf will find ways to prevent such an outcome. I expect him to find a puppet to set up as prime minister and keep the reins in his hands.
3. U.S. relations
The U.S. backing of Bhutto put huge pressure on Musharraf. Support for U.S. policies in Pakistan is about zero. Musharraf is now again free to take the popular stand of independence from U.S. policies. The pressure point the U.S. has left is the money it pays to the Pakistani military. But that is a weak point, as any operation in Afghanistan is impossible without logistic support through Pakistan. Take away the Pakistani military’s money and the Afghanistan operation will have to top.
Short of an unlikely military coup against Musharraf, I currently see no way how the U.S. can again get the upper hand over him. The bribing of the tribes and planed operation of U.S. special forces in North Western Frontier may have ended before they really started.
It is probably a mistake to read too many ‘onion layers’ into the Bhutto assassination.
Recent amerikan action in the ME that has had the tacit support of both Tweedledum and Tweedledee has focused almost entirely on quietening things down, not “putting out the fire with gasoline’ to quote Mr Bowie.
There isn’t an establishment funded candidate for dog catcher who wants amerika’s military adventures in the ME to be an issue, much less the issue in ’08.
If things are loud and rambunctious with peeps being shot, amerikan troops publicly implicated in the nastiness that goes with empire, the evening news leading with more bad shit from ragheadland, eventually one of the dem candidates that has been paid to know better will crack.
One of the ‘mainstream’ front -runners, a Clinton, Edwards or Obama will get that rush of sheer crazed ambition which has led pols into all sorts of ‘off the songsheet’ epiphanies in the past.
One of the three leaders will break ranks and make more than perfunctory meaning-free statements about amerika’s military adventures in the ME and actually undertake to reduce, pull back or even uninvade.
If the noise of empire’s cruelty and perfidy is loud, the chances whichever pol broke ranks first would create such a groundswell of support that even the mainstream amerikan media couldn’t swift boat this ‘traitor to empire’. Those three front runners have been in the public consciousness for long enough that they are impervious to a Howard Dean hoot or whatever quick and clean sabotage the elites prefer right now.
If the noise was loud and disturbing enough to Joe Voter’s ears, the chances are that the overly ambitious candidate who broke ranks first could command such a groundswell of support, that they would appear unstoppable to the other two. Then the worst of all scenarios, for the imperialists, one or other even both of the other two candidates decide to try and ‘out withdraw’ the front-runner.
The campaign becomes a horse race between the dems for the fastest withdrawal promise. On sober reflection none of the three front runners would countenance a withdrawal of empire, that is why they were anointed in the first place, but ambition is a powerful motivator for any political candidate who has devoted as much to ‘the big gig’ as these guys have. They would eat their babies for a shot at prez, spinning a ‘withdrawal’ is minor in comparison to that.
Of course the candidates would rationalize they will cross the bridge of actual withdrawal when they come to it ie if they get elected.
However this would be a first term prez, and a first term prez’s number one priority is winning a second term, the winner wouldn’t want to actually blatantly break their word. Of course neither would they want to go into 2012 with the mainstream media whispering about a prez who ‘retreated’. Nevertheless some substantial ‘downsize’ of the ME expeditionary force, painstakingly built up by successive dem and rethug administrations for the last two decades (following every assassination, mistranslated axis of evil speech, and “act of terror”) would have to be made, lest the new prez go the way of GHB’s “no new taxes”.
That is the nightmare scenario that the imperialists who make up the bulk of amerika’s ruling elite most dread. It would mean that at some stage they would probably have no choice other than to reveal the iron fist beneath the velvet glove. The relationship between the country’s leadership and it’s citizenry would be damaged, creating fear, resentment and worst of all resistance.
Resistance that would hang around like a bad smell for years.
So in order to prevent the situation arising where some whore of a pol out hawking his/her fork for a vote does decide to ‘go all in’ and promise to ‘bring our fine young men and women home’ (murdering and raping assholes) billions of dollars, most of which would otherwise be finding it’s way into the hip pockets of amerika’s elite has been ante’d up to keep the ragheads quiet for a year.
I’m not sure people really do understand just how unprecedented this mass handout of cash is.
I know I wrote on this before, but the best way to consider these payouts as being totally unheard of is to consider a parallel from the war on drugs, which has been fought around the ‘third world’ for decades.
Over the years there has been much talk of ‘paying peeps not to grow drugs’, but those programs never amounted to jack-shit. In fact we looked at one such program in Afghanistan a few months back. Bugger all money got anywhere near the peasant farmers, consequently bugger all stopped growing O.
That is typical of such programs. As discussed before it is highly abnormal for amerika to put together a program where large amounts of real cash money is given to the peasants, generally the buck stops with the warlord/’tribal elder’. Buying a few blokes with a few grand apiece is one helluva lot cheaper than buying millions with hundreds of dollars a month. This is big money most of which will disappear from the rich list’s grasp for ever. A program like that needs a powerful motivation to get up with as little discussion, let alone opposition as this one.
That such a program has been run in Iraq right now with ongoing efforts to get it up in Afghanistan and even the Pakistani tribal areas, indicates exactly how desperate the elites are to prevent a domestic meltdown over the empire next year.
In such circumstances there is no way that anyone from the amerikan empire’s leadership would risk rocking the boat in Pakistan by having Bhutto, Musharraf or Shareef murdered. It is also highly doubtful any foreign agency could get the bodies on the ground to pull off a successful assassination without word leaking out or being detected.
The military dictatorship has broken up an institutional culture that wasn’t particularly cohesive in the first place. That is Pakistan doesn’t have a sense of agreed positions on what’s ‘in the national interest’ held by people in positions of authority.
Opinions on the national interest are widely varied which is why Pakistani prosecution of the war on terra has been such a dismal failure.
With circumstances like that where individuals in the army, the police and the security services all hold widely differing view from the colleagues about what is good for Pakistan, it is impossible to imagine any agency could provide support to a clandestine amerikan action.
As Tariq Ali points out Pakistan has an unfortunate legacy of political assassination, that extends back to it’s first flower of nationhood. This was a domestic Pakistani political act.
Pakistan is made even less likely for a high risk unpredictable adventure from amerika, by one of those logical disconnects that are so frequent in media generated shared realities.
The average amerikan peep currently wants everyone home yesterday, when circumstances force he/she to consider the Mid East. Despite that the average amerikan peep also wants OBL’s sorry, sand swimming, raghead ass on trial in amerika too.
The two beliefs are obviously incompatible so the amerikan elite do what they can to keep some sort of support for the imperial adventures by talking AQ and leaving OBL out.
As this thread demonstrates, consideration of Bin Laden goes hand in hand with consideration of the Bhutto assassination. Another cross for the backs of the ’08 candidates and an increase in the odds of an outsider winning prez.
Consideration of Tora Bora or any other milestone of failure to apprehend OBL is something that the army and the pols agree on- that is, they agree there shouldn’t be any public discussion of this signal failure, lest the citizenry wake from their slumber and demand an end to imperial adventure.
Someday some historian will write a treatise on how the amerikan empire came to be hoist on it’s own petard.
That is the lies spread by the empire’s proponents had such a profound effect on amerika’s ability to act freely. The empire was lost due to these falsehoods originally manufactured to facilitate amerika’s imperial expansion.
Posted by: Debs is dead | Dec 28 2007 13:13 utc | 43
|