I haven’t written much about the War on Iraq recently. The very reason is that there isn’t much happening to write about. Of course the killing goes on – without making headlines. Resistance bombs blowing up in this or that part of Iraq, dead people turning up every day. Sunni on Shia violence, Sunni on Sunni, Shia on Shia, the U.S. on everyone …
But there is no process. Peter Beinart has been lambasted for asserting that Iraq will not matter in the 2008 election. If everything stays the way that it is now, he is right. Today Iraq still matters in the polls, but eleven month from now?
One cannot follow the daily barrage of death and carnage with analysis. There are some subtle movements of this or that tribal coalition and Badger thankfully tries to follow those. But do they really matter?
In the U.S. nothing is happening either. The Democrats will give Bush all the money he wants to further wage war and will not attach even one tiny string to it. In their logic, they would be weak if they don’t give in to Bush’s demands.
Something big needs to happen and will. If a trend can not go on forever, at some point, it will stop. The longer the now perceived calm continues, the bigger will be the outbrake from the trend, or rather the suprise about the divergence.
As Patrick Cockburn explains, Nothing is Resolved in Iraq
Power is wholly fragmented. The Americans will discover, as the British learned to their cost in Basra, that they have few permanent allies in Iraq. It has become a land of warlords in which fragile ceasefires might last for months and might equally collapse tomorrow.
A new generation of fighters is coming to age. The girls and boys that were 13 or 14 when the U.S. invaded, are now grown ups. They don’t remember Saddam, only the GIs that broke their homes door and shamed their fathers.
The treacherous perceived quietness might last for months or blow up tomorrow. Beinart is right, if everything stays the way it is now. Given his prediction record, we can be sure that it will not do so.