Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 1, 2007
Panic?

Wonder why the stock markets are tanking today bespite a $41 billion inflationary injection by the Fed?

Well – this is what official U.S. economic numbers are about: Inflation was low because oil prices surged

The above is not an Onion piece but a well-founded explanation of ‘serious’ official U.S. ‘economy numbers.’

Yesterday we learned that U.S. growth was 3.9 percent and inflation down to 0.8%. But the same day these good numbers made the Fed to cut its interest rates? "Who do you believe – me or your lying eyes."

Today some economy blogger found out that Maybe the Real Reason for the SIV Rescue Plan was to save Citibank from going belly up.

Welcome to the club. I wrote about the Citigroup Bailout via the SIV plan and included the likely  ‘belly up’ scenario two weeks ago. Why does it take people so long to catch up on the plain obvious?

In the big picture the bailout for the rich is running via the Fed induced inflation: Rising Prices Widen Gap Between Rich and Poor

Although higher prices also mean higher wages and salaries, the tax authorities are the first to benefit from the incremental earnings — but not when it comes to high earners. Not much changes for those who have already reached the highest tax bracket, while everyone else is affected by what is known as cold progression: the marginal tax rate changes with each additional euro in income, resulting in a more uneven distribution of the tax burden.

The scenario I see gets worse each day. ‘You ain’t seen nothing yet,’ is the tune I can’t get out of my head right now. If you thing the great depression was an impressive show, this downturn will leave you staggered.

Get out of the markets, stocks, US$s and variably mortgaged housing, while you can.

Comments

Get out of the markets, stocks, US$ and mortgage housing, while you can.
and into what?
risk looks crazy everywhere.

Posted by: selise | Nov 1 2007 21:45 utc | 1

Shortterm: Real cash (not money market!) – Medium short term: Euro notes or such (CanDo) – Medium term: Gold (at $780 it’s a bargain) – Long term: Farm land
Everything has risk. The above is just my personal best guess.
And remember: Never take financial advice on the Internets …

Posted by: b | Nov 1 2007 22:00 utc | 2

gold, if in doubt

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Nov 1 2007 22:28 utc | 3

I was thinking about this while driving in rush hour traffic* just now, and remembered seeing 3 different banks under new construction on my drive home.
Not sure that means anything, except there seems to be more and more banks going up. There’s like damn near one on every corner here.
*Of course, it’s really ‘rush 15 minutes’, as Missoula is still a very small town…population maybe 80,000 …lol

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 1 2007 23:20 utc | 4

Here’s a weird one. Friends of mine live in the outback of BC (Canada), the northeastern bit where it is arid and the climate is harsh. When they bought land and moved up there about 2 yrs ago, you could buy a trailer on 5 acres for $12-15K and a 100+ acre spread w/structures for $125-$200K (depending on the terrain and the structures).
Now all of a sudden that trailer and 5 acres is listing at $80K.
Who the H is buying up inland BC? What gives?
Is the smart money taking B’s advice and buying any land it can get N of 35?

Posted by: DeAnander | Nov 2 2007 0:48 utc | 5

Buy necessities, food, water, weapons, bandages, fuel, and trade goods, alcohol, tobacco, medicine, using anonymous cash as much as possible. Anything you or neighbors can’t live without has real value. Owning gold is a good idea but I doubt you can buy it without leaving a record, and authorities will not be kind to the recognized provident.
Impossible to do without record, but best thing to buy would be fertile inland property with an artesian well. Lease with option to buy might be better.
Inland BC property having risen, even more if expressed in U.S. $, is very interesting. A couple of years ago Queen of England was reportedly buying around Denver Airport. Rich have been buying in U.S. Rockies in general.
Bush family apparently bought 100,000 acre ranch over an aquifer in Paraguay
Glad to see Uncle $cam is in Montana.

Posted by: plushtown | Nov 2 2007 3:27 utc | 6

Two bits-
Central banks will be probably be selling lots of gold soon.
NE BC is close to Albertan oil sands and gas. Add some global warming and wait.

Posted by: biklett | Nov 2 2007 4:21 utc | 7

I’ve a friend who bought a 1/2 acre recreational lake front property in southern British Columbia a few years ago for about $6,000. He learned last week that its now valued at $85,000. RCMP recently issued a study that warned of “environmental refugee” problems looming in BC. Things would seem to be afoot.
Two years ago the Canadian dollar bought US $0.83. A week ago it bought US $1.04. Today it buys US $1.07. In a week! We haven’t done anything innovative, or clever, or whatever to catapult the Loonie that much. The Canadian dollar isn’t skyrocketing – the US dollar is tanking.
Maybe get a chunk of BC while you can.

Posted by: Allen/Vancouver | Nov 2 2007 5:08 utc | 8

Yeah, that’s easy to say. 3 years ago I might have been able to “get a chunk of BC” — now I don’t think I have a snowball’s chance 🙁 Maybe on the out-islands…
This gives me a very, very bad feeling, and it should give any Canadian also a bad feeling… to think of 300 mio spoilt, violent, gun-totin’ nuclear-armed bible-thumping gringos disturbed by storm and drought, casting their covetous eyes on the northern territory. The US insistence on “harmonising border control” makes more and more sense: a plan to annex Canada…?
I guess, based on history, I should be glad to get out of the US with the clothes on my back and the gold in my teeth; anything else is gravy, as compared to the average refugee experience.

Posted by: DeAnander | Nov 2 2007 5:15 utc | 9

The US insistence on “harmonising border control” makes more and more sense: a plan to annex Canada…?
a friend of mine just sent me this yesterday..canadian action party
The Metamorphosis and Sabotage of Canada by Our Own Government
The Chief Executive Officers of the most powerful corporations operating in the three countries want this union and have been working for some time devising their strategies and goals. Their facilitators are first, unelected officials and bureaucrats who move easily between corporations and government; second, former elected officials like John Manley , former Deputy Prime Minister of Canada; third, the heads of the three nations, Martin, Bush, and Fox; and finally, the governments and the rest of the elected members who apparently just rubber stamp what is put in front of them by the unelected officials- few questions, if any asked.
The ultimate enforcement mechanism for the North American Union is a police state.

con’t…

Posted by: annie | Nov 2 2007 5:28 utc | 10

DeA, the Gulf Islands for sure if I win a lottery. And yes, Canadians are wary amongst themselves. We look at oil shortages, at water shortages; we look over our shoulder a lot.
My neighborhood has many Iranians – refugees from the Shah’s era. They are mostly non-secular, middle and professional class, their kids play hockey. Same with the Chinese, and South Americans, Philipinos, Slavs, the so many others who have come here from choice and made their contributions. Even us xAmericans.
We all think about the next refugees – who we know will be Americans, and we know they will be coming for the taking, not the sharing.
Sorry.

Posted by: Alen/Vancouver | Nov 2 2007 5:40 utc | 11

DeAnander, Allen/Vancouver, out-islands will be gone, as will Vancouver, won’t even be navigational hazards. Gets rid of the David Icke fans in Vancouver and potential troublemakers/power-holders on coasts worldwide.
No one here or elsewhere has yet contacted me or made public argument to try to collect my offered $1000 U.S. (worth less every day) by convincing evidence that ever stronger earthquakes under lightening Greenland glaciers are not inevitable.
Below is quote from ist article of 3 recent I linked to in ist comment on OT 07-70
Veli Kallio, a Finnish scientist, said the quakes were triggered because ice had broken away after being fused to the rock for hundreds of years. The quakes were not vast – on a magnitude of 1 to 3 – but had never happened before in north-west Greenland and showed potential for the entire ice sheet to collapse.
Notice increased earthquakes worldwide, and that no leader or organization, including the mainstream sources I link to, shows good faith towards any but their creditors.

Posted by: plushtown | Nov 2 2007 6:10 utc | 12

Annie wrote:
The ultimate enforcement mechanism for the North American Union is a police state.
That would be NorthCom – provides Martial Law for all 3 Countries. link listen to Frank Morales @12:00 minutes in. there’s been no acknowledgement of this in mainstream press – signed same day as Mil. Commissions Act. Pat Leahy said of this bill that it allows for Martial Law, etc. Allows Pres. to use troops in supression of dissent against the expressed will of the state governor. All 50 Governors unanimously opposed this…
Primary Purpose of NorthCom is to work w/Police Departments, NOT to fight incoming Missiles – Note – set up under Clinton Admin.
Interesting discussion by Morales – he talks about convergence of Military & Police forces…

Posted by: jj | Nov 2 2007 6:12 utc | 13

Allows Pres. to use troops in supression of dissent against the expressed will of the state governor. All 50 Governors unanimously opposed this…
that would be The Defense Authorization Act of 2007
jj, i heard frank morales speak @ the project censored media accountability conference last weekend. edible. talk about cool. his report “Bush Moves Toward Martial Law” was #2 of the 25 most censored.

Posted by: annie | Nov 2 2007 6:30 utc | 14

My grandparents were teenagers still living at home during the “Great Depression”, and I’ve heard a number of first-hand stories from that time period. People didn’t have much, but they shared what they had with each other, made the best of things and pulled through.
I really don’t see that happening today… When we have runs on the banks and food/fuel shortages it’s not going to be pretty. One need look no further than the aftermath of hurricane Katrina in Louisiana and Mississippi to have some idea of what things will look like with the anarchy, looting, and pointless violence. By and large, our people are spoiled from always having cheap, ready access to necessities for about 2 generations now. Forget growing their own food, most of the people in my part of the country don’t even know how to prepare it anymore: they either eat out or heat a pre-prepared meal in the oven or the microwave.
Lots of good suggestions in this thread, but one idea I’ve had (that may or may not be worth anything) is to invest in yourself in the form of real-world skills. Learn to maintain/repair your own vehicles and computers, grow food if you have the property, do basic plumbing/carpentry/electrical work, etc. Being more self-reliant is always a good thing, regardless of what happens to the economy, and it will almost certainly help if you decide to emigrate elsewhere.

Posted by: Chemmett | Nov 2 2007 21:58 utc | 15

totally agre3ne on self reliance but feel impelled to note: the behaviour of ordinary people in the aftermath of Katrina was way better — more commensalist and responsible and solidary — than the overtly racist and sensationalist MSM reported. the behaviour of the US govt and its agents was what was truly thuggish and shocking to the world. local people continue to rebuild in solidarity and mutual self-help in NOLA, while the Bush regime pays its cronies millions for uninhabitable trailers and relocation programmes to get the original inhabitants out of the way of gentrifiers. but don’t get me started. NOLA was a breaking point. it was the moment when I knew I was living in a failed state.

Posted by: DeAnander | Nov 2 2007 22:24 utc | 16

Exactly, DeAnander, people in the Katrina and other disasters have behaved with much more decency and effectivity than they, by far, have been given credit for.
But the Bankers of Illusion played on crime and (black) bands pillaging, shooting and stuff, while the “band” most known to have shot things up were such as Blackwater and other private police.
I recall the young teenager who copped a bus and drove it, full of refugees to Texas — the first reaction of the authorities was to charge him for stealing the bus, never did find out what happened to the boy.
Another tip: learn what can be eaten that grows wild, and what can’t — you can’t survive on it alone, but it can be the edge that keeps you alive.
Finally, remember, you won’t see a headline, “The Depression Has Started” or, even less likely, “The Great Cull Has Begun”.

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Nov 3 2007 10:31 utc | 17

@Chemmett * 15
You are right! I’ve been through “economic crises” under Milosevic and UN sanctions in 1993.It’s a horror! I hope and pray not to go through anything even similar in my life ever again. I have no energy to write about it again and can’t find right now what I already did write here but I can tell you, for us “city people” it was DM (German marks at the time ) that we needed to survive. Western money will presumably sunk with dollar this time so I don’t know what kind of banknote you should save. And avoid banks. DO NOT put your money into the banks (socks will do much better job).Of course at some point you’ll definitely need gun to be able to sleep (dog is not enough, cause they kill the dogs).Prepare to situation where anything you need will be available on black market ONLY. You can not make your own food. I tried. Not possible in the city. Petrol was 3X normal price so we couldn’t afford to go to our relatives at the country side and get some food. Black market only and prices…puhhh…sky rocketing. Not many varieties…
We tried to help each other (mostly family and close neighbors but it’s not easy when you do not have much to share. And yes it’s not a bad idea to buy bike if you work far away ( if you still have your job).During Milosevic people did not lose their jobs all tho many of them did not even get salaries (but they had to attend anyway or they’ll lose jobs and their pensions).Many had to walk to job cause there was no enough busses and family car was useless having in mind price of the petrol. People could not afford medicine and if you are chronically ill it would not be bad idea to stockpile your medicine. Yes, people will need to learn again how to cook and make their own bread, chocolate , everything…but people are resilient they learn fast when they have to.
The moment when you ask for all your money at the bank and they tell you they need few days to give it to you is a moment when catastrophe actually starts. Do not put your money in what ever tempting offers they make. If it’s too good it’s fake. Ahh don’t let me start talking about those tragic times.
They will pass…the most important thing is to stay alive…anything else is a bonus…

Posted by: vbo | Nov 3 2007 13:45 utc | 18

Ah yes, and do not be tempted to try and participate in profiteering at the black market…Anything that gives great profit is reserved for mafia (in our case it was state mafia).Many have lost their lives thinking it was anarchy and everyone can go for it (especially petrol and cigarettes)…They (rich and powerful)are very well organized in times like that…
Inflation is a great tool for them to take from you everything you have. I do not have western experience of crisis (and hope will never have) but I suppose here they’ll first take your homes (most valuable) and then go for the rest…

Posted by: vbo | Nov 3 2007 13:58 utc | 19

Oh ppl have been quietly buying land all over the place, Americans I guess first as they have money and are keen on the independent go it alone survival type spirit. Off the grid. A family unit. Sharing with neighbors. All that stuff. Guns but no butter or only on Friday (the butter, not the guns.) Of course they don’t envisage that turning their communities into medieval type townships / districts with a defence force – itself unwelcome, it smacks of organisation, of authority, of votes, of influence, etc. – won’t save them from the cataclysms to come. The independent homestead idea is based on a static situation (even the hated police / fed gov are essential; national infrastructure is taken for granted; etc etc) and the concept of easily controlling or killing weak enemies or internal dissidents is based on the past – Indians, Wild West, an expansive country that can absorb wayward sons and criminal or dishonored daughters. Those visions are outdated. And then there is the Mafia or similar type orgs. as vbo just mentioned. Individualist survivalist dreamers haven’t a clue, to put is briefly..
Of course in any situation self reliance etc. is good.
In the US, a step that would make sense is secession from the US, making the state in question face survival problems communally.

Posted by: Tangerine | Nov 3 2007 16:55 utc | 20

vbo can’t find right now what I already did write here
here you are, from jerome’s ‘russia gives up the dollar’ post. scroll up to 17 also.
closing w/ “No I really wouldn’t want to experience anything like that again …please God.
“ They kill horses don’t they? ” comes to mind…

thanks for the insight

Posted by: annie | Nov 3 2007 17:16 utc | 21

We’ll have a “fun” week ahead:
Look who’s biting the dust – big names:
UK banks hit by credit fears

The City was swept by rumours today that another British bank was in trouble after Northern Rock indicated it was not the only bank borrowing from the Bank of England’s rescue fund.

Barclays was today the subject of intense speculation in the City after its share price sank by 6% as investors worried about its financial stability.

Citigroup Chief Is Set to Exit Amid Losses

The embattled head of Citigroup, the global banking giant, has told directors that he would resign from the bank after an emergency meeting this weekend in the wake of a $5.9 billion write-down and sharp drop in profit, people briefed on the situation said last night.

At the meeting on Sunday, directors are expected to formally accept his resignation and discuss the possibility of another write-off, just weeks after announcing large losses related to subprime mortgages and the credit market turmoil.

Big Drop in Merrill Stock on Hint of New Troubles

Merrill Lynch, still operating without a permanent chief executive, saw its shares fall sharply yesterday on the possibility that it might have to write down more of its high-risk credit exposure.
The firm’s shares fell 8 percent, to a two-year low, after a report by Michael Mayo, a securities analyst for Deutsche Bank, said that it might have new write-downs of nearly $10 billion on complex investments called collateralized debt obligations.
Merrill took a write-down last month of about $8.4 billion, after initially warning that the amount would be closer to $5 billion. It also reported a loss of $2.3 billion.

– More trouble for German banks (in German)
A German bank which is mainly handling the pension fonds of doctors and pharmacists tuns out to have invested 1-2 billions in an off-the-books-conduit in Ireland that. That conduit then got additional loans from other German banks, some 35 billions, and used all the money to buy mortgage backed securities and collaterized debt obligations. Turns out that those papers were what many folks said – junk. Big oops an billions of losses.
– All the above is only the tip of the iceberg. Lots of the MBS and CDO papers were ‘insured’ or were bet opon in some derivate schemes. We do not yet know who those insurers are. We don’t know who the derivative holders are. Your bank or mine? Your pension fund? My 401k? The values of these papers issued in the last years is several TTTrillions.
I see some light at the end of the tunnel, but I’m afraid it’s an oncoming train.

Posted by: b | Nov 3 2007 19:11 utc | 22

For what it’s worth, my comment about the Katrina aftermath was the result of a conversation with one of the refuges. An elderly black gentleman and his wife lost their house to the flood in New Orleans and I had the privilege of meeting them and hearing their story when they moved near me. He said he was a Vietnam veteran and some of the stuff he saw after the hurricane but before the flood forced them to leave still shocked him.
People (regardless of race, culture, social standing, or anything else) are scary when panicked and do things they probably wouldn’t do otherwise. Combine that with the use of thugs like Blackwater for law enforcement (and the steadily deteriorating relationship between normal law enforcement and civilians in this country) and it can rapidly make a bad situation much worse. No doubt the media did sensationalize this aspect of the disaster and provide their usual inane commentary, but a lot of that stuff did actually happen. Thankfully, anarchy is not a stable state… people calm down and learn to deal with the new status quo. But I still think it’s going to be a rough transition.

Posted by: Chemmett | Nov 3 2007 20:25 utc | 23

Quote:
Thankfully, anarchy is not a stable state… people calm down and learn to deal with the new status quo. But I still think it’s going to be a rough transition.
____________________
In our case it was not anarchy in a classical (Katrina, Iraq) way of meaning. It lasted for years not days or months and there was no classical looting. It’s just that crime was on a rise big time and no one felt safe any more. There was illusion there that there is a state (police, judiciary, social security, health and educational services , media etc.) in place while what ever had became of state institutions was serving only (political and mafia) “elite” and “patriots” (serving “elite”).And ordinary people were left to “bleed to death” without all those services.
That was a kind of anarchy. Some people felt that now when there is no one to serve their interest they may try to make what ever they can to survive and tried to make a profit (which was huge) on a black market. But that’s when they found out that it’s not that much of the anarchy and that there are people taking care of this great business opportunity and that’s are not them. Some were killed, some were threatened…
See even after Milosevic even Prime Minister Djindjic was killed, not that much for purely political reasons but more for business and profiteering reasons…
Even today after so many years practically all of the big businesses are in the hands of those people who took our money through that great inflation and I call them mafia because they did and they still operate mafia style. They are mostly ex-DB (secret service) people…They legalized their businesses and are safe now…Soon no one will remember how they made “starting capital”…

Posted by: vbo | Nov 4 2007 3:15 utc | 24

Pamic? Supermodel ‘rejects dollar pay’

The world’s richest model has reportedly reacted in her own way to the sliding value of the US dollar – by refusing to be paid in the currency.
Gisele Bündchen is said to be keen to avoid the US currency because of uncertainty over its strength.
The Brazilian, thought to have earned about $30m in the year to June, prefers to be paid in euros, her sister and manager told the Bloomberg news agency.

Posted by: b | Nov 5 2007 18:30 utc | 25

b
when you have one model bündchen refusing to be paid in dollars & another, naomi campbell hanging out with hugo chavez – you know its a bad day for the empire

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Nov 5 2007 18:40 utc | 26

Getting worse: Roubini: The bloodbath in credit and financial markets will continue and sharply worsen

It is now clear that the delusional hope that the severe credit and liquidity crunch that hit US and global financial markets would ease has been shattered by the events of the last few weeks. This credit crunch is getting much worse and its financial and real fallout will be severe.
The amount of losses that financial institutions have already recognized – $20 billion – is just the very tip of the iceberg of much larger losses that will end up in the hundreds of billions of dollars. At stake – in subprime alone – is about a trillion of sub-prime related RMBS and hundreds of billions of mortgage related CDOs. But calling this crisis a sub-prime meltdown is ludicrous as by now the contagion has seriously spread to near prime and prime mortgages.

Every corner of the securitization world is now under severe stress, including so called highly rated and “safe” (AAA and AA) securities.
RGE China Reserve Watch
The reality is that most financial institutions – banks, commercial banks, pension funds, hedge funds – have barely started to recognize the lower “fair value” of their impaired securities. Valuation of illiquid assets is a most complex issue; but starting with the November 15th adoption of FASB 157 the leeway that financial institutions have used so far for creative accounting will be much more limited.

Posted by: b | Nov 5 2007 20:44 utc | 27

b, thank you for the Roubini link. Here is more on the coming Level 3 explosion:
Level 3 storm about to hit Wall Street
What I find surprising is the apparent lack of concern over oil prices. All the sane and sensible economy commentators I follow have their attentions riveted on the financial train wreck. But USD 90+ per barrel oil is a full blown crisis all by itself for the ‘real’ economy (not to mention real people, but I guess economists aren’t in the people business).

Posted by: Alamet | Nov 6 2007 1:09 utc | 28