A small NGO, Senlis Council, which also claims to also be a ‘thinktank’ and is financed by a Swiss billionaire, came up with a report that grabbed headlines today: Afghanistan ‘falling into hands of Taliban’. The NGO’s not so peaceful solution is to call for NATO to double its troop levels.
Either Karzai got an earful from Washington or he was just pissed off about this. He banned Senlis Council from Afghanistan.
The Swiss government is wiser than the NGO. It has voluntarily recalled its military from Afghanistan after four years of hard engagement. The two officers, who were sharing the beer with the Germans in Kunduz, will leave because the situation is getting too dangerous. The South Korean’s are on their way out too and Japan ended its support mission.
Smart folks.
There will certainly be NO doubling of NATO troops.
The Germans and Austrians just got some nasty video message threatening a bit of terror at home if they don’t recall their troops (Germany has 3000 there and Austria 50% more than Switzerland had). Any real terror event in Germany could now be the end of Merkel as chancellor. The Canadians find the war is quite expensive and the politicians not truthful about it.
The public opinion in Germany, like in Canada and the Netherlands, is overwhelmingly against any troops in Afghanistan anyway, but politicians like in Berlin ain’t listening – yet.
The people are asking: What is the supposed benefit of fighting the Pashtuns in their homeland? An increase in terror threats? What else?
The Afghans are shutting down all private security firms which will make any project and business much more difficult. A Chinese(!) company wins the bid for Afghan copper mining (12 million tons!), Karzai is negotiating for peace with the Talibs and, in the UN, votes against Canada. Most of the financial aid to Afghanistan gets wasted while it exports (pdf) plenty of opium and heroin. Meanwhile the dictator in Pakistan is held in place by the U.S. to keep the supply lines to its troops in Afghanistan open.
So what’s the reason for NATO troops being there? And to double them? Why?
NATO wasn’t build to occupy and fight nasty counterinsurgency wars in some landlocked Asian backyard. There is no consensus for such fights and in the long run such public consensus is decisive. NATO was build to hold off the Sowjet Union. Now it embarresses itself by renting Russian helicopters and crews to do fight in Afghanistan.
The people in the Kremlin must be laughing their asses off.
People smell that somethings very wrong here. The foreign policy ‘elite’ on both sides of the Atlantic wants to keep NATO alive. If that is their aim, they will have to give up on Afghanistan and do so very soon. Otherwise NATO will fall apart.
It is likely though that they will wait too long and lose both, NATO and the war against the Pashtuns.
That’s the only positive aspect I can find in this mess.