Turkey started an offense against PKK fighters in northern Iraq. This is unlikely to solve anything as long as Barzani, the head of the Kurdish area of Iraq, and its population are supporting the PKK. This conflict will likely expand into an bombardment of north Iraq by the Turkish air force, hitting infrastructure and political targets. This will again solve nothing but could possibly even lead to some skirmishes with the U.S. military.
Meanwhile relations between Israel and Turkey are cooling fast. The Turkish government sees Israel behind Pelosi’s ill timed and self defeating Armenian genocide resolution. Erdogan is also protesting against Israeli training for Kurdish rebels. The Israeli attack on Syria which also violated Turkish air space certainly didn’t help. All the rumors about a ‘nuclear target’ there appear to be ‘curveball’ like fabrications anyway. Relations between Syria and Turkey are mending.
Somehow strategists in Washington and Tel Aviv seem to disregard the very severe danger of a potentially unfriendly Turkey. Who do they think could hold Ankara back?
In Iraq the U.S. military is still in the process of switching sides. It now props up the Sunni forces while increasingly fighting Shia in an escalating air campaign. Such has the advantage of keeping U.S. casualties down but it kills more civilians and will feed a new resistance. In late August Sadr declared a six month truth to reorganize his forces. U.S. action now adds to his movement. Springtime in Mesopotamia will be very ‘interesting’.
The rhetoric against Iran has been turned up some additional notches with Cheney all but declaring war. Despite the internal discussions in Tehran there will be no change in the Iranian position on enrichment. There will be no return to sanity in Washington either. An escalation seems thereby more and more likely. Only the U.S. military (ex air-force) is holding the White House back from issuing attack orders. But that dam will not hold forever. In the end the generals will simply follow their orders.
Further to the east Karzai’s position as mayor of Kabul is getting less and less tenable. Taliban forces are now striking around Kabul and in the city itself. He is losing U.S. support for his resistance to Washington’s hardline policies on opium erradiction. But while undermining him what alternative does Washington believe to have?
The U.S. scheme of injecting Benazair Bhutto into Pakistan is faltering. With her return it immidiately became obvious that she will never get along with Musharraf. But she doesn’t have the power to kick him out. Before long she will be back in her London villa. Who, by the way, is Bhutto pandering to when she publishes an oped on Pakistani ‘democracy’ in Haaretz?!? Her voters in Karachi?
Meanwhile the central Middle East conflict stays unsolved. The big Israel/Palestine peace conference in Annapolis is moved again and again and will likely not happen at all. Olmert’s tactic of stalling all negotiations doesn’t get punished at all.
This is another failure for Rice and a win for Cheney’s likudnik hardliners.
All the conflicts above may errupt independently of each other. But I fear they will merge and lead to what Bush and Cheney seem to desire most. A huge series of wars that will change the map between the Mediterranean and Kashmir, split the countries into small controlable entities that allow the U.S. to play them against each other and rake in the spoils of war.
While the plan might work as far as conflicts are indeed generated, I somehow doubt that the second part will play out well.
