Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 26, 2007

Replacing Ahmedinejad?

Will the Iranian establishment dump Ahmedinejad to defuse the U.S. threat of war?

In the 'western' media Ahmedinjad has been build up as the 'new Hitler', the 'ultimate villain' who 'threatens genocide on Israel' and 'denies the holocaust' and eats small children.

What would happen to this hate campaign if the Iranian supreme leader Khamenei takes that special toy figure away?

In a recent Asia Times piece Pepe Excobar wrote:

On Sunday, hundreds of students protested at the Amir-Kabir University in Tehran, calling for "Death to the dictator".

The wily, ultimate pragmatist Hashemi Rafsanjani, now leader of the Council of Experts and in practice a much more powerful figure than Ahmadinejad, took no time to publicly reflect that "we can't bend people's thoughts with dictatorial regimes".

This week, the Supreme Leader himself intervened, saying, "I approve of this government, but this does not mean that I approve of everything they do." Under the currently explosive circumstances, this also amounts to a political bombshell.

Now the former Iranian President Khatami openly criticizes Ahmedinejad as lying about the state of the economy.

Based on the Escobar piece commentator not-so CluelessJoe comes up with a conclusion:

The Western powers are being played like the bunch of rank amateurs they truly are.

It's just brilliant.

Basically, the mullahs are saying that Ahmadinejad acts like an autocrat, that he's bordering dictatorship. Which is exactly what the war party says here around.

Soon, they'll just move to remove Ahmadinejad and his government, his guys, claiming that it's time to end his reign and bring freedom to Iran. And what will the West be able to do, when they've stupidly claimed that the president has the power and is the threat, when he clearly is there just for the show.

He's the fall guy that has been set up. He'll fall from grace and from power.

And the guys in charge of Iran will be able to show they are bringing more freedom to Iranian people, will make a few decisions for the show, and than will remain in power and be able to go on with the plan, without much trouble since BushCo won't anymore be able to claim Iran is led by a madman who wants to nuke Israel.

In a few weeks Ahmedinejad may develop serious health problems which unfortunately will require his immediate resignation. Or he may recognize that he really needs to spend more time with his family.

Soon another semi-puppet would be found to take his job and 'western' heat. Rinse, repeat ...

But today Escobar notes with regard to the new sanctions:

By stretching its "war on terror" logic to actually naming names, the Bush administration has boxed itself into no other option than regime change in Iran.

'Regime change' is aimed at people above Ahmedinejad's pay level.

The plot to replace him now is smart, but is it sufficient?

Posted by b on October 26, 2007 at 17:04 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Fascinating.

The Iranians, the Russians, the Chinese play chess, we, in the West, stuck under Bush, play checkers - badly.

Putin has just cleverly compared Bush's placing of a missile screen in Eastern Europe as Russia's Cuban Missile Crisis. A few more European nations go cold on NATO - just as Europe is split over Turkey and Afghanistan.

And the Chinese just sit there and wait for Bush's dead body to float past. Still, we get the leaders we deserve.

Posted by: johnf | Oct 26 2007 17:42 utc | 1

If something changes in Iran, does anyone seriously believe it will matter to the Bushies? I don't. These people don't operate on logic. They set the discussion based on their ideology, not real facts. Their control of the media in this country is almost total, so anything that happens there will be spun in their favor.

Posted by: Ben | Oct 26 2007 18:58 utc | 2

Impotent and resentful coward that he is, Bush will bomb Iran simply for the relief it provides to his maimed and misshapen psyche. And what else can the man do?

Certainly no one really worries about him any more, mostly because they know that the bombing of Iran is a completely useless exercise. And if Gates and Rice are really trying to slow him down, it's only to save themselves from looking like idiots working for Bush....

Posted by: alabama | Oct 26 2007 19:51 utc | 3

Ahmadinejad won't get sick or replaced. There won't be any war as it has been suggested. Iran will stand up against Bush , they will wait him out.

Posted by: | Oct 26 2007 19:58 utc | 4

@4

agree that Ahmadinejad stays & there will be no war with Iran this year, nor next year.

the military is just not going to go for it. Too many contigencies involved & too few boots.

but for the overthrow of Mossadegh, Iran by now would likely be a very friendly pro-West ally, maybe even moreso than Turkey. In contrast, Russia's now earns itself historic gratitude for stepping up in support of Iran without really having to do much.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Oct 26 2007 21:29 utc | 5

The main point at play now here is the Kurds. Iran is pretty happy that the Shia South is there for the taking. Five Airbus 380's can put paid to the last British Imperial hangover dreams forever (I hope).

This is a Kurds play now, they see how the USofA have fucked up big time and given "under DEMOCRATIC vote" power to the Shia and see them roll back and bankroll the Sunni to pacify Anbar and all the non-producing oil regions of Iraq.

The Kurds will I think at this time win the north. The US is setting up a Ba'athist takeover of Iran......... again.

What Turkey does is the fly in the ointment.

What a cluster-fuck.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Oct 26 2007 22:13 utc | 6

Bush Budget for Endless War of Terror

2003: $ 49B
2004: $ 88B
2005: $ 60B
2006: $ 95B
2007: $120B (requested, estimated $60B spent)
2008: $196B (requested)

http://www.grifphon.com/Newsletter/INSIGHT_2_IRAQ_SURGE_022007.pdf
You'd have to be brain dead not to read Farsi in those tea leaves.

Posted by: Terrence Michaels | Oct 27 2007 1:06 utc | 7

I agree that these people don't run on logic. They 'make their own reality' as the uncommonly honest Karl Rove once put it.

I just hope that there are others who are in their senses keeping the latest war urges of C. and B. in checkmate. There is evidence that this is already happening.

Please, impeach them or just remove them from office now. Rats are most dangerous when cornered.

Posted by: hopping madbunny | Oct 27 2007 8:40 utc | 8

Ahmadinejad is popular with many. The ‘supremes’ won’t get rid of him or not soon. He provides a mouthpiece, a counter point. Even his bad press is good for them, for Iran. He pretty well toes the proper line with some unexpected panache and weird sorties. Being front scene and getting a lot or press is positive - it places Iran on the world stage, attracts attention, offers protection.

No attack on Iran. It is just posturing from a by now enfeebled Bush, frustrated and strutting about, trying to blow up US power, bluster with US threats, please Israel, toe the neo con line, whip up hate for Arabs (oh they are Persians, but the fact that they have oil makes them Arabs), etc.

Posted by: Tangerine | Oct 27 2007 21:10 utc | 9

reuters: Iran says documents show U.S. backing "terrorists"

Sun Oct 28, 2007

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has access to evidence of U.S. support for terrorist groups in the Middle East, a senior Iranian official was quoted as saying on Sunday.

Iran's new chief nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, made the allegation in comments to visiting Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan, whose country may soon send troops to hunt down Kurdish guerrillas in northern Iraq.

Are they able to say these things now that Russia/Putin has weighed in? I can't see how it would be helpful to Iran to make such tension-escalating accusations, were they not protected.

"And there are documents and information available proving America's support for terrorist groups in the region," he said, without giving details. Jalili is also the new secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council.

Didn't Hamas report seizing an amazing cache of incriminating documents "proving America's support for terrorist groups in the region" when they overran the Abbas government a few months back? I have heard no specifics of what they claim they found.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 29 2007 8:56 utc | 10

Targeting Iran - Interview :
The United States Of Amnesia?

Excellent Interview with David Barsamian, host and producer of Alternative Radio and author of "Targeting Iran"

Good little primer at least in terms of history most Americans don't know...

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 29 2007 10:29 utc | 11

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