Hannah K. O’Luthon pointed to this Haaretz’ analysis by Amir Oren about the Israeli air attack on Syria three weeks ago.
The farce came to a partial end yesterday, and even though there is still a gag order on most of the juicy details, we can safely say that behind the successful blackout campaign lies an enormous failure. The silence of official Israel was not meant to protect military secrets.
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Policy was shaped on the basis of a certain assumption about Bashar Assad’s behavior in response to the operation. … [I]t seems that once again Assad surprised Israel; whoever expected him to respond to the operation in a military operation was wrong.
In my September 11 piece I also claimed that the operation was a failure. One of the Israeli jets dropped its extra fuel tanks over Turkey. This only made sense as an emergency measure while under threat from Syrian air defense. The Israeli planes likely never saw their real target.
But the second assertion in Oren’s analysis is much more frightening. If he is right, which I think he is, the Israeli air attack was done to provoke a military answer by Syria. The attack was an attempt to justify the start of a wider war.
Back in September I didn’t see the real picture but had questions:
There will be no major IDF response to Qassam strike in Negev due to tensions in north,
Haaretz analyzes. But why does the Israeli army need all it has on the
border to Syria? This when it also claims that there are no signs of Syrian preparations for war?If the Syrians refrain from retaliating for the air strikes, which
they will for lack of capacity, why is the Israeli army preparing to
fight on or from the Golan heights?
These question are now answered. An immediate attack was planed based on some provokated Syrian action. But Syria didn’t fall into the trap. The chief of the UN observation force on the Golan, in an interview (in German) with Der Spiegel, recently unveiled that throughout the summer Israel has intensly trained and prepared for large attack operations. This despite quietness on the Syrian side of the Golan boarder.
But to what purpose might Israel have tried to provoke Syria into a wider war? Why did it train large ground attack operations?
I can think of three possible intentions:
1. Avoid to give back the Golan heights
There was pressure from the U.S. and Saudi Arabia to include Syria in the next round of peace talks with the Palestinians and other Middle East countries. Any peace with Syria would end Israeli control of the Golan. A new war with Syria, even a small one, could avoid this for further years.
2. Prepare for war with Iran
An attack on Syria now avoids later interference from it in case of a U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran. Next to an intense air campaign to destroy Syrian missile capacities, a ground component could have included a temporary rush from the Golan some 30 miles northeast to threaten Damascus and block the Beirut-Damascus highway.
3. Shut down Hisbullah
A wider operation could include operation 2 and, while blocking Damascus, make a wide 180 degree turn towards the Mediterranian with the aim to cut off Hisbullah’s area in South Lebanon from the rest of that country. This would open the possibility to ‘roll up’ Hizbullah’s South Lebanese positions along the Litani river from their back side. A big, risky operation, but the distances are relative small, it avoids crossing the mountains and Heinz Guderian would have liked it.

Whatever the plan was, Oren explains that it failed because the expected military response by Syria, which would have justified wider action, did not come. Syria avoided a military answer and the obvious consequences.
Like the Bush administration, the Israeli planers assume their enemies think like themselves. They project. Israel would certainly respond militarily to any air attack. It expected Syria to do the same, but Assad isn’t as stupid as they think.
We can be certain that Washington approved the Israeli air-attack and the wider plan. Thereby Washington must also have agreed with the false prediction.
The same dumb projection mechanism will be the base for the plans for war on Iran. They will fail for the same reason.