UPDATED below
An earlier post this week described a new supply line for the U.S. troops in Iraq that allows them to avoid the Shia south of Iraq if needed. It now evolves that the U.S. is systematically abandoning all of south Iraq . Time Magazine asks Has the US Ceded Southern Iraq?. The answer seems to be yes:
Small contingents of U.S. soldiers enter Karbala and Najaf only for brief visits with local officials these days, and much of the rest of southern Iraq has no American troops at all. Focused on saving Baghdad, U.S. forces keep up a regular presence with patrols and combat outposts chiefly around the southern reaches of the capital. Meanwhile, the drawdown of British forces in Basra … leaves yet another southern city .. unattended by the U.S.-led coalition. That means virtually all of the vast, populous and oil-rich territory stretching from Karbala to Basra is up for grabs.
‘Up for grabs’ is certainly the wrong expression. Two Shia fractions, al-Sadr and SIIC (former SCIRI) were fighting about the south but with help of Iran have now agreed on some kind of armistice. They rule south Iraq and anyone who wants to grab there will have to fight or agree with them.
The process sketched above amounts to an adjustment of frontlines possibly in preperation of a U.S. attack on Iran. Closure of the Street of Hormuz, attacks on the main supply route from Kuwait to Baghdad and lonely outposts of sparse U.S. troops in South Iraq would have been deadly options for Iran to retaliate against an attack.
With the south ceded by the U.S. and a new supply line from Aqaba, those options are gone.
There are two risks left for the U.S. in Iraq. One is the reliabilty of the Sunni tribes. But as long as the money is flowing to them, they are unlikely to abandon their current friendliness towards U.S. troops. The other problem is Turkey which is currently again shelling north Iraq in retribution for PKK attacks in Turkey.
One more successful attack of the PKK with a high number of casualties and the Turkish premier Erdogan will have to pull out the stops he currently still puts on his military. A new war in the north with Iran possibly joining a Turkish incursion could easily again unbalance the situation.
UPDATE (via an Uncle $cam comment):
Seymour Hersh in a talk (video) at The New Yorker Festival has a different explanation for the U.S. ceding south Iraq (watch at some 80% into the video).
Rough transcript:
"Democrats will lose this election if they do not wake up. Democrats run on reducing troops in Iraq. Bush will act by next summer. Bush will surprise the Democrats by slashing troop numbers to 70-80.000. He will cede the south and say we are winning."
