What is the Farsi word for Kremlinology? I don’t know, so I’ll just write up some facts without much conclusions.
There is a noticable shift in the Iranian government that may well reflect into its future policies.
President Ahmedinejad is under fire for his economic policies. He had ordered interest rates to be cut despite significant inflationary pressure and sacked the ministers for oil and industry. The head of the Central Bank resigned. A new ‘reformist’ Central Bank chief was introduced today, but the important ministries are still headless and there is some conflict with the parliament about the replacements.
Two of the Iranian-American scholars held by Iran on espionage accusations have been freed and are allowed to leave the country. This was likely the influence of the Supreme Leader Khamenei and not Ahmedinejad’s decision.
In a deal with the IAEA a timeplan to answer old questions was fixed. This plus a remarkable slowdown in enrichment might forestall further UN sanctions. The compact was the work of Ali Larijani, who is a member of the National Security Council on behalf of Khamenei.
Last Friday the commander of the Revolutionary Guard, a 250,000 men military/industrial force, was moved up and away to become a special advisor to Khamenei. No ‘western’ media seems to have an explanation for this move. Our commentator Parviz noted:
[T]he head of the Revolutionary Guards was dismissed last week for having delivered a speech that the Religious Leader (Khamenei) considered too belligerent.
But the ex-patria Iran Press Service writes just about the opposite:
No reason was given for the very important change at the highest level of the 250.000 strong Guards, but some informed sources said Rahim Safavi might have been changed because of his relative “mildness” compared to some other hard line officer, including General Ja’fari.
So was he too hard or too soft? Whatever it is, Safavi is still holding speeches and the new ICRG leader Ja’fari didn’t sound shy in his first press conference.
The most significant recent move though is the election of former president Rafsanjani as head the Council of Experts, a powerful chamber that elects, consults and supervises the Supreme Leader, currently Ajatollah Khamenei. Rafsanjani is a pragmatic conservative Islamic cleric and a very rich man with best relations to the business class. This puts him into opposition of Ahmedinejad who’s constituency are the poor workers and farmers.
All the above steps are limiting Ahmedinejad’s position and assert the position of Khamenei. Coming within a short timeframe they signal a major shift which
will have some consequences in the foreign policy relations.
Rafsanjani’s election will certainly tame some of the statements coming from Iran that the ‘west’ interprets as bellingerance. But Rafsanjani is certainly not bending his knees to ‘western’ demands.
"Now they (the United States) have started an anti-Shiite wave and we should be careful not to fall into their traps,"added Rafsanjani. "We should not let ourselves be provoked and give an excuse for the enemy."
Still, the U.S. reaction to Rafsanjani’s election was positive:
"We would hope that reasonable individuals in Iran would see the positive opportunity given to it by the international community to enter negotiations and be able to achieve a peaceful nuclear program while still reassuring everyone else that it is not simply a cover for building a nuclear weapon," State Department deputy spokesman Tom Casey told reporters.
As far as I remember, the U.S. had previously denied any legitimacy of such a peaceful nuclear program in Iran. Is this a major change in U.S. policy or just a trial balloon by the State Department?
Nothing of the above will likely appease the U.S. neocons who want to bomb, bomb, bomb Iran.
Regime change to them is not simply a change of foreign leaders, but a change of the political, social and economic system of a foreign country. Iran is certainly not willing to go down that road.
But the changes can be helpful for those in the U.S. who argue for negotiations instead of destruction.