Myanmar security forces used batons, tear gas and live rounds Wednesday in a violent crackdown on mass protests against the military junta, killing at least four people including three Buddhist monks.
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The unrest began last month when the junta dramatically raised the price of fuel overnight, deepening the misery in this already impoverished country.
Four killed in Myanmar protest crackdown
The Buddhist clergy in Myanmar is under government control. But as every Buddhist there joins a monastery once a life, the mass of protesting people are mostly "three day monks" – normal folks in temporary robes.
Yesterday Bush threatened further sanctions on Myanmar. These will be useless and may make things worse. The military leadership is already under sanctions. There are travel restrictions in place and personal assets have been frozen. The UN Security Council has an emergency meeting now which may result in another useless resolution.
In 2003 the U.S. imposed additional sanctions and banned textile imports from Myanmar. A study concludes (pdf):
Like many other sanctions of the United States, the Burmese Freedom and
Democracy Act of 2003 had a disproportionately greater impact on the people than it did
on the military regime. Though this paper does not include the argument that overall
effects of the sanctions were behavior modification, it must be
stated frankly that there are no observed signs that the military intends to change its
behaviors or attitudes on freedom and democracy.
Sanctions obviously do not help to solve the political issues, they kill people. But the U.S. and it’s allies only know sticks and don’t do carrots. The International Crisis Group is against sanctions and urges regional talks:
Only China, India, and, to a lesser degree, ASEAN have any influence on the military regime. China has very close economic and political links with Myanmar, while India has developed strong military ties.
But the neighbors of Myanmar are probably not interested in changing the current state. South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, China and India are competing over access to Myanmar’s rich offshore natural gas fields. Other countries are involved too:
Foreign oil companies engaged in the oil and gas sector mainly include those from Australia, Britain, Canada, China, Indonesia, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Russia and Thailand.
Myanmar, or at least its leadership, is said to be very corrupt. The oil and gas money from its neighbors doesn’t ‘trickle down’ to the people.
Instead of sanctions ‘western’ governments should offer favorable terms for energy development, agriculture exports and industrializations, including contractual guaranteed ‘trickle downs’. These could actually help the people and, over time, weaken the militaries regime strong hand.
As this would be smart, I don’t expect that it will be given a try. Instead the current public chest chumping will distract the ‘western’ public from the misery it is spreading there and elsewhere.