Yesterday Bush made some very distorted historical comparisons between the war on Iraq and on Vietnam. But some chapters of the war on Vietnam do rhyme with Iraq – like the Gulf of Tonkin incident and WMDs. Here is something else that, one way or another, will soon be comparable:
On orders from U.S. President John F. Kennedy, Henry Cabot Lodge, the American ambassador to South Vietnam, refused to meet with Diệm. Upon hearing that a coup d’etat was being designed by ARVN generals led by General Dương Văn Minh, the United States gave secret assurances to the generals that the U.S. would not interfere. Dương Văn Minh and his co-conspirators overthrew the government on November 1, 1963.
After Bush withheld support for Maliki a day before, yesterday Sen. Clinton and Sen. Levin (in a phonecall from Tel Aviv!) called for Maliki’s head. Having secured bi-partisan support, Bush’s administration is likely to launch the coup against the elected Iraqi prime minister during the next few days.
For the U.S. Maliki is not puppet enough and his recent travel to and support for Iran and Syria are simply unforgivable. There are some personal consequence for disobedience:
The coup was very swift. On November 1, 1963, with only the palace
guard remaining to defend President Diệm and his younger brother, Ngô
Đình Nhu, the generals called the palace offering Diệm safe exile out
of the country if they surrendered. However, that evening, Diệm and his
entourage escaped via an underground passage to Cholon, where they were
captured the following morning, November 2. The brothers were executed
in the back of an armored personnel carrier that was taking them to
Vietnamese Joint General Staff headquarters. Diệm was buried in an
unmarked grave in a cemetery next to the house of the US ambassador,
Lodge.
Maliki should certainly watch his back now. His body guards are western
mercenaries he can not trust. He shouldn’t trust any U.S. official
either. If I were him, I’d get on a plane asap. There are some fine
places in this world ruled by people more capable than him.
They are secure, have water and electricity. Unlike his people Maliki with his diplomatic
passport has lots of choices where to go to.
To justify the coup, a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq will be coming out later today. The NYT gives a preview:
The administration is planning to make public today parts of a sober new report by American intelligence agencies expressing deep doubts that the government of the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, can overcome sectarian differences. Government officials who have seen the report say it gives a bleak outlook on the chances Mr. Maliki can meet milestones intended to promote unity in Iraq.
With Maliki still in place, the September report by Petraeus and Crooker would have to point out an unprogressing political deadlock in Iraq. It thereby would have endanger the continuation of the "surge".
The "surge" proponents, (this includes Clinton/Levin), decided to get rid of Maliki now and then have the September report filled with praise for the just installed new dictatorship.
There is some competition on who will follow Maliki. CIA asset Ayad Allawi is trying to get the job as are some militaries. (Behind the curtain Chalabi will be waiting too.) This might well be another part of the constant infight within the State Department/Cheney/Defense Department triangle.
Juan Cole has some anonymous source on the military variant:
"There is serious talk of a military commission (majlis `askari) to take over the government. The parties would be banned from holding positions, and all the ministers would be technocrats, so to speak …
[…]
The six-member board or commission would be composed on non-political former military personnel who are presently not part of the government OR the military establishment, such as it is in Iraq at the moment. It is said that the Americans are supporting this behind the scenes.
Cole’s source says "many many" Iraqis would support this. Sure, they also greeted the occupiers with flowers and sweets. Why wouldn’t they support a new occupation puppet dictatorship now? I for one don’t remember them voting for such.
Allawi, who also got about zero votes in the Iraqi election, has hired a republican lobbying firm to prepare the path for him:
The anti-Maliki crusader is former Iraqi interim prime minister Ayad Allawi, and the Washington firm retained to spearhead U.S.-focused efforts on his behalf is the Republican powerhouse group of Barbour, Griffith, and Rogers (BGR).
BGR International’s president is Robert Blackwill, the one-time White House point man on Iraq, holding the title of Presidential Envoy to Iraq in 2003 and 2004.
[…]
In recent days, BGR sent hundreds of e-mail messages in Allawi’s name from the e-mail address DrAyadAllawi@Allawi-for-Iraq.com.
They also managed to get an Allawi OpEd "Pick Me! Pick Me!" into Saturday’s Washington Post.
Anyway – longterm it will be completely irrelevant who wins the fight.
What is further to be expected in Iraq? As history rhymes lets also look at the aftermath of the coup in that other war. The enemy of that time had a good laught:
Upon learning of Diệm’s ouster and death, Ho Chi Minh is reported to have said, "I can scarcely believe the Americans would be so stupid." The North Vietnamese Politburo was more explicit, predicting: "The consequences of the 1 November coup d’état will be contrary to the calculations of the U.S. imperialists … Diệm was one of the strongest individuals resisting the people and Communism. Everything that could be done in an attempt to crush the revolution was carried out by Diệm. Diệm was one of the most competent lackeys of the U.S. imperialists … Among the anti-Communists in South Vietnam or exiled in other countries, no one has sufficient political assets and abilities to cause others to obey. Therefore, the lackey administration cannot be stabilized. The coup d’état on 1 November 1963 will not be the last."
Sure the Baath leaders and the Iraqi resistance will have a good party too when Maliki is gone and al-Sadr will praise his lord that his major competition was outsted.
Further on:
After Diệm’s assassination, South Vietnam was unable to establish a stable government and numerous coups took place during the first several years after his death. While the U.S. continued to influence South Vietnam’s government, the assassination bolstered North Vietnamese attempts to characterize the South Vietnamese as supporters of colonialism.
But the war on Vietnam went on and on until years later the U.S. public finally pulled the plug. It will do so again. Some six years from now and after Teheran and Damascus have been bombed to rubble and civil wars have destroyed Lebanon and Jordan.