Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
August 20, 2007
A False Afghan Pipeline Report

In a comment Dan of Steele points to an item in the Pakistani Daily Times about the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) pipeline. That piece is based on a report by the Pakistani private TV station Geo News:

The government of Pakistan has approved of awarding the mega-project to the US Company, International Oil Company (IOC) for the laying of Turkmenistan-Pakistan oil and gas pipeline at an estimated cost of $10 billion.

[…]
This pipeline with a capacity of supplying 2 million barrel of oil and 4 billion cubic feet of gas would be constructed up to Gawadar, where one refinery would also be constructed at a cost of $3.5 billion.
[…]
IOC said that the matters relating to the security in Afghanistan and insurance guarantee have been finalized and the ceremony of the mega-project agreement inking would soon be held.

There is a livid history about access to Central Asia’s hydrocarbons. The timeline of plans for this pipeline is quite long. I was therefore very suspicious of this sudden ‘news’ and having looked into it I believe the report is likely false. This for five reasons:

First: There is no U.S. oil company named IOC. "International Oil Company" is a generic description for any oil company that is not nationalised.

Second: India is not mentioned. Discussion on this project always said:

Without the Indian market, TAP was not deemed a profitable undertaking.

Third: The Geo News piece mentions a connection of the pipeline to Gawadar which lies on the south west coast of Pakistan next to Iran. Quite some miles away from the markets in India and the possible pipeline routes (pdf) evaluated by the Asian Development Bank.

The port of Gawadar was build in unruly Baluchistan with Chinese money and personal. Did China agree to such a deal?

Fourth: Along any possible route of the pipeline there are independent war-lord, Taliban, tribal areas where such a project will likely meet fierce opposition:

Currently there are two routes under discussion. The first runs through northern Afghanistan, cutting through Kabul before entering Pakistan; the second travels through western Afghanistan, passing through Kandahar into Pakistan.

Unfortunately, security concerns extend beyond Afghanistan. If the route through western Afghanistan emerges as the best option, the pipeline would cross Pakistan’s Baluchistan Province. In January, a little-known separatist group attacked a gas storage facility in Baluchistan. The attack was not unique, as local tribesmen increasingly are targeting natural gas facilities in the province to settle accounts with the central government, ask for higher royalties, or promote their nationalist agendas.

If the alternative option is chosen, the pipeline would cross the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan, which includes the semi-autonomous tribal areas. These regions, most notably the tribal areas, are known for their fierce independence. Both the NWFP and the adjoining Afghan border regions are also home to radical Islamists groups with very strong anti-India sentiments. A pipeline serving Indian interests would present them with a tempting target.

Fifth: No private company or bank would currently invest some US $10 billion in such an insecure project. No insurance company would underwrite the involved risk.

In conclusion, the little piece by Geo News may contain some grains of truth. But that’s also the case with other fairy tale.

But that’s how ‘news’ is made.

The Iranian Press TV copied from the report sourcing it to ‘Agencies’, PakTribune picked it from a  ‘private TV channel’, i.e. Geo News, and Asia Times uses it in a piece on alleged U.S./Taliban negotiations without giving a source at all.

(Searching for "TAP pipeline" Google news labels the Daily Times report ’15 hours ago’, the Press TV report ‘6 hours ago’ and the PakTribune and Asia Times pieces ‘2 hours ago’.)

Comments

dang b, I thought I had excercised due diligence when I got to the Pakistani paper. Nice work.
Jerome of Paris has repeatedly stated there will be no pipeline and he offers a good argument for that. The question is of course, if there will not be a pipeline, why are they saying there will be one?

Posted by: dan of steele | Aug 20 2007 14:46 utc | 1

It’s always worth trying to tease out the subtext in these “reports” – and I would guess that it’s an attempt to put pressure on the Iranians and the Indians to sort out their pricing disputes over the cost of the gas, which is the source of the current hold-up.
Iran has been very publicly talking to Turkey regarding expanding gas exports and participating in the Nabucco project to pipe gas from Central Asia/Iran to Europe ( the Russians are pissed about this, natch, as it reduces their leverage if it ever gets built, which it probably won’t ). The Iranians are probably doing this as it creates leverage on India to agree to their pricing structure or the gas will head off to wealthy Europeans, who can afford to pay market rates.
Gas/oil pipelines that involve more than 2 countries are complex geopolitical endeavours, as they freeze relationships into place for a considerable period of time – and you definitely want to have a pricing formula that everyone is equally unhappy with, confidence in your transit partners, confidence in your supplier and confidence in your end-user.
As regards the prospect of Afghanistan ever being a transit corridor for pipelines – well, it’s a fantasy; there’s no infrastructure, no stability, poor security, no workforce – the logistics for such a project would realistically have to come from Iran, who would just say fuck off and then turn the lights off in Herat ( the only part of Afghanistan with a decent power supply ‘cos it’s tied into the Iranian grid ). The only reason Afghanistan ever got touted as a possibility in the early 1990’s was that it fulfilled the negative requirement, for US companies, of not being Iran.

Posted by: dan | Aug 20 2007 15:44 utc | 2

b,
great job unveiling the oily layers.

Posted by: Anonymous | Aug 20 2007 16:07 utc | 3

Is this part of the tango? If not, what the hell is it about?
ABU DHABI — The United Arab Emirates plans to reduce crude oil production by up to 25 percent within weeks. link

Posted by: jj | Aug 21 2007 3:23 utc | 4

thanks b & dan

Posted by: b real | Aug 21 2007 3:52 utc | 5

Somewhere in the elfin brain of a CIA-plant in Kabul came a noodling fart on a white board for a new pipeline route or two. Something, anything, to keep the little elf in $300G’s domain. Someone saw the sketchup, and language barriers and dimension of visualization bereft, popcorn started popping.
Half of what you read in any business news is an intel plant.
As for UAE, turnaround shutdowns are a natural part of every refinery anywhere in the world. Oil is a hot-pressure process. You can’t scrub the pot blacks with the burners set on high.
Some Neo-Zi or Uber-Lib will pick through it and scream foul.
Nothing to see here, citizen, move along….

Posted by: Tante Aime | Aug 21 2007 3:54 utc | 6

The Pakistani Daily Times now even has an editorial on “IOC” and the pipeline: Editorial: How realistic is TAP gas pipeline?
That’s how news is made …

Posted by: b | Aug 21 2007 5:57 utc | 7

Lest we forget, many of these scenarios come straight out of gaming progs…
For instance, The Wonga Coup about various skulduggery surrounding the exact same country mentioned in a certain epic cult novel. One of which occurring at around the same time said book came out (give or take a few years) Do you think there’s a reasonable chance that one influenced the other (which one did the influencing being up to you) or is it just “coincidence”?

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Aug 21 2007 6:18 utc | 8

the article specifies “the US Company, International Oil Company,” which has been pointed out to be a non-existent company, but i came across a similiar named outfit, which has been involved in the area for a long time in this extract from peter dale scott’s book, quoting from baer’s see no evil.

A former CIA officer, Robert Baer, complained about the oil lobby’s influence with Sheila Heslin of Clinton’s National Security Council staff. “Heslin’s sole job, it seemed, was to carry water for an exclusive club known as the Foreign Oil Companies Group, a cover for a cartel of major petroleum companies doing business in the Caspian. … Another thing I learned was that Heslin wasn’t soloing. Her boss, Deputy National Security Advisor Sandy Berger, headed the inter-agency committee on Caspian oil policy, which made him in effect the government’s ambassador to the cartel, and Berger wasn’t a disinterested player. He held $90,000 worth of stock in Amoco, probably the most influential member of the cartel. … The deeper I got, the more Caspian oil money I found sloshing around Washington.”

Posted by: b real | Aug 22 2007 5:15 utc | 9

link for b real’s quote.

Posted by: b | Aug 22 2007 10:21 utc | 10