To push through, and possibly increasing, the recent U.S. arms and cash gift to Israel, some prop-aganda effort is needed. Following one aspect of this effort, I found this amusing trail.

In June 2007, during the Paris Air Show, the air industry publication ‘Aviation Week’ reported in a side story on a rumor: With Its U.S. Jets Aging, Iran Appears to be Close to a 250-Sukhoi Order. As the publication remarked, major components of the Sukhoi SU-30 plane in question come from Thales, a french arms producer, and Paris would have to give its okay for the deal. While the standoff about Iranian uranium enrichment continues, such a green light from France, and thereby such a deal, would be unlikely.

There are always such sales rumors at any industry show and in this case even hard facts not to believe in it. So everybody soon forgot about this rumor but some smart folks in Israel.

On July 27th, just a day before the announcement of a huge U.S. arms and cash gift to Israel and a proposed bige arms sale to Arab Gulf states, the Israeli disinformation site DEBKAfile reported: Iran buys 250 long-distance Sukhoi fighter-bombers, 20 fuel tankers, from Russia

Tehran and the Russian Rosoboronexport arms group are about to sign a mammoth arms deal running into tens of billions of dollars for the sale to Tehran of 250 Su-30MKM warplanes and 20 IL-78 MKI fuel tankers. DEBKAfile’s military sources report Iran has stipulated delivery of the first aircraft before the end of 2007.

[…]

Okay – the DEBKA folks do read Aviation Week. The tankers they throw in increase the reach and the threat into Europe.

On Juli 30, the baton gets picked up by the right-wing Jerusalem Post: Reports: Iran to buy jets from Russia

Israel is looking into reports that Russia plans to sell 250 advanced long-range Sukhoi-30 fighter jets to Iran in an unprecedented billion-dollar deal.

According to reports, in addition to the fighter jets, Teheran also plans to purchase a number of aerial fuel tankers that are compatible with the Sukhoi and capable of extending its range by thousands of kilometers. Defense officials said the Sukhoi sale would grant Iran long-range offensive capabilities.

A day later the usual suspects in the U.S. follow up. The Navy Times repeats parts of the Jerusalem Post report and expands on it:

Iran is in negotiations with Russia to buy 250 state-of-the-art fighter jets, an Israeli newspaper reported, in a pointed response to a new American bid to sell billions of dollars’ worth of weapons to potential Iranian adversaries in the Middle East.

The English-language Jerusalem Post of Israel reported Monday that top Israeli defense officials are investigating the potential Iran-Russia deal, in which Iran would pay $1 billion for about a dozen squadrons’ worth of Sukhoi Su-30 “Flanker” fighter-bombers. As a part of the deal, Iran would also buy aerial tanker planes that could extend the fighters’ range.

Also based on the JPost story the Defense Tech site asks: Is Iran This Cold War’s India?

By tomorrow a swarm of mil-bloggers will have picked up those sources and will discuss the ever expanding deadly threat from Iran.

But most likely, little to nothing of the report is true.

While Iran could certainly use some SU-30s to replace the 1970s junk its air force is currently trying to fly, 250 is a number that is certainly much too high. As the SU-30 is already a long range fighter, the fuel tankers DEBKAfile adds to the original Aviation Week story, only make sense if Iran wants to bomb Berlin. Somehow I doubt Tehran is planing for that.

DEBKA says the price would be "tens of billions", Jerusalem Post names no price and the Navy Times magically comes up with 1 billion. The numbers are wrong.

In 2003 Malaysia bought 18 Su-30MKM for $900 million with some services included. Given that price tag of $50 million a piece and and some $30 million per tanker, Iran would have to pay $13 billion for the rumored purchase. "Tens of billions" is just as wrong as 1 billion and while cutting domestic gas subsidies Tehran would certainly have trouble to explain such an expense to its people.

But back to prop-agenda. An old industry rumor of doubtable value is relaunched and exaggerated as a threat not only to Israel but also to Europe by a Mossad controlled site just a day before a $30 billion U.S. tax payer gift to Israel is announced.

The Jerusalem Post reliably amplifies it and thereby gives it enough credibility to be repeated in the U.S. media. Every instance adds a bit of bells and whistles and in the end a serious enemy threat will have been created out of thin air.

Will Iran buy some SU-30? That is indeed possible – maybe ten a year over a decade, IF the French agree. But that would be a force that in no way would be able to threaten any U.S. ally.

The only reason the industry rumor was re-launched now is to justify the transfers of U.S. tax dollars to Israeli pockets. As this is so easy to do, one wonders why the Israelis don’t try it more often …