Pat Lang comments on a WaPo editorial about an alleged military build up by Hizbullah in Lebanon:
What are the Israelis doing? They are preparing for a drive into Syria across the Golan heights, a "decisive" battle with the Syrians between there and Damascus and then a left "hook" into Lebanon to execute a "turning movement" against Hizbullah.
Preparing the information battlefield for Israel’s coming attack are two editorials today in major U.S. newspapers. Both, of course, blame Syria. Both, the Washington Post and the LA Times, take a recent U.N. report by the U.N. Secretary General to the Security Council as a main point.
The U.N. report, the editorials say, alleges weapon smuggling via Syria to Hizbullah. But one wonders why that report is not linked and is also not made public on the U.N. website. Maybe because it is a bit fishy? Or because it also includes these Israeli misdeeds?
UNIFIL has reported a significant increase in Israeli air violations, through jet and unmanned aerial vehicle overflights of Lebanese territory. These violations occur on an almost daily basis frequently numbering between 15 and 20, and have even reached 32 overflights in a single day.
The alleged massive weapon smuggling is characterized by the Washington Post in the editorial’s subtitle as:
"Heavy weapons flow freely across the border from Syria, the U.N. Security Council is told."
As you will see, that is a deliberate half-truth. This is what the U.N. Secretary General’s report says:
[T]he LAF and UNIFIL did not detect any illegal transfers of arms south of the Litani River.
…
The Government of Israel continues to claim
that Hizbullah is rebuilding its military capacity primarily north but
also south of the Litani River. UNIFIL, in collaboration with the LAF,
stands ready to immediately investigate any such claims or alleged
violations of resolution 1701 (2006) once the necessary specific information and evidence is received.
…
[T]he Government of Israel continues to allege
significant breaches of the arms embargo across the Lebanon-Syria
border, which it states, pose a serious strategic threat to the
security of Israel and its citizens. It has claimed that the transfer
of sophisticated weaponry by Syria and Iran across the Lebanese-Syrian
border, including long-range rockets (with a range of 250 miles),
anti-tank and anti-aircraft defense systems, occurs on a weekly basis,
enabling Hizbullah to rearm to the same levels as before last year’s
war or beyond. It has not provided any further specific evidence to back up these claims.
What the "U.N. Security Council is told" by the Secretary General is
that there are Israeli allegations of weapon smuggling. The U.N. says
it has not an ounce of proof that such smuggling is taking place and
that Israel is not able or willing to give any specifics for its
claims. That is all the "U.N. Security Council is told."
The LA Times editorial is warning of a war and blames Syria for an arms buildup:
War
fears have been fanned by a notable Syrian arms buildup. Damascus has
purchased surface-to-surface missiles, antitank weapons and
sophisticated air-defense systems. It is also believed to have received
Iranian funds to pay Russia for missiles and a reported $1-billion
purchase of five advanced MIG-31E fighter jets.
Now that’s nearly funny. A recent Israeli oped says
that Russia rejected to supply decent surface-to surface missiles to
Syria. Air-defense and anti-tank missiles are, as their names say,
defensive. Five downgraded export version MIGs are a sad joke against Israel’s three-hundred U.S. supplied F15s and F16s which include the most modern variants.
Meanwhile the Israeli military is conducting massive maneuvers on the Golan Heights and seems to be disagree with the LA Times:
"Our emergency supplies have been renewed, there is a multi-year plan for weapons and personal equipment."
[…]
[The officers] believe Syria’s army has limited capabilities and its air force is far inferior to Israel’s.
Therefore, a new war would resemble last year’s fighting in Lebanon –
commando combat in difficult terrain with large areas controlled by
anti-tank units.
[…]
In recent months the Golan Heights has become one of the IDF’s main
exercise areas. At times this requires closing off roads. Infantry
troops and rows of tanks, armored personnel carriers and jeeps raise
clouds of dust in grazing fields and the air is filled with low-flying
helicopters and echoes of explosions.
A new Israeli training village, build and payed for by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is designed to resemble Lebanese and Syrian townships.
While there have been multiple offers from the Syrian side for
unconditional talks with Israel, there has been no response from the Israeli side.
Is there any wonder Syrians believe that the Golan maneuvers are in preparation of an Israeli attack?
Lang seems to be pretty sure about this. He adds a question:
Will that coincide with American action against Iran? Someone should ask the Chenians that.