Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
July 5, 2007
The Coming War On Syria

Pat Lang comments on a WaPo editorial about an alleged military build up by Hizbullah in Lebanon:

What are the Israelis doing?  They are preparing for a drive into Syria across the Golan heights, a "decisive" battle with the Syrians between there and Damascus and then a left "hook" into Lebanon to execute a "turning movement" against Hizbullah.

Preparing the information battlefield for Israel’s coming attack are two editorials today in major U.S. newspapers. Both, of course, blame Syria. Both, the Washington Post and the LA Times, take a recent U.N. report by the U.N. Secretary General to the Security Council as a main point.

The U.N. report, the editorials say, alleges weapon smuggling via Syria to Hizbullah. But one wonders why that report is not linked and is also not made public on the U.N. website. Maybe because it is a bit fishy? Or because it also includes these Israeli misdeeds?

UNIFIL has reported a significant increase in Israeli air violations, through jet and unmanned aerial vehicle overflights of Lebanese territory. These violations occur on an almost daily basis frequently numbering between 15 and 20, and have even reached 32 overflights in a single day.

The alleged massive weapon smuggling is characterized by the Washington Post in the editorial’s subtitle as:

"Heavy weapons flow freely across the border from Syria, the U.N. Security Council is told."

As you will see, that is a deliberate half-truth. This is what the U.N. Secretary General’s report says:

[T]he LAF and UNIFIL did not detect any illegal transfers of arms south of the Litani River.

The Government of Israel continues to claim
that Hizbullah is rebuilding its military capacity primarily north but
also south of the Litani River. UNIFIL, in collaboration with the LAF,
stands ready to immediately investigate any such claims or alleged
violations of resolution 1701 (2006) once the necessary specific information and evidence is received.


[T]he Government of Israel continues to allege
significant breaches of the arms embargo across the Lebanon-Syria
border, which it states, pose a serious strategic threat to the
security of Israel and its citizens. It has claimed that the transfer
of sophisticated weaponry by Syria and Iran across the Lebanese-Syrian
border, including long-range rockets (with a range of 250 miles),
anti-tank and anti-aircraft defense systems, occurs on a weekly basis,
enabling Hizbullah to rearm to the same levels as before last year’s
war or beyond. It has not provided any further specific evidence to back up these claims.

What the "U.N. Security Council is told" by the Secretary General is
that there are Israeli allegations of weapon smuggling. The U.N. says
it has not an ounce of proof that such smuggling is taking place and
that Israel is not able or willing to give any specifics for its
claims. That is all the "U.N. Security Council is told."

The LA Times editorial is warning of a war and blames Syria for an arms buildup:

War
fears have been fanned by a notable Syrian arms buildup. Damascus has
purchased surface-to-surface missiles, antitank weapons and
sophisticated air-defense systems. It is also believed to have received
Iranian funds to pay Russia for missiles and a reported $1-billion
purchase of five advanced MIG-31E fighter jets.

Now that’s nearly funny. A recent Israeli oped says
that Russia rejected to supply decent  surface-to surface missiles to
Syria. Air-defense and anti-tank missiles are, as their names say,
defensive. Five downgraded export version MIGs are a sad joke against Israel’s three-hundred U.S. supplied F15s and F16s which include the most modern variants.

Meanwhile the Israeli military is conducting massive maneuvers on the Golan Heights and seems to be disagree with the LA Times:

"Our emergency supplies have been renewed, there is a multi-year plan for weapons and personal equipment."
[…]
[The officers] believe Syria’s army has limited capabilities and its air force is far inferior to Israel’s.
Therefore, a new war would resemble last year’s fighting in Lebanon –
commando combat in difficult terrain with large areas controlled by
anti-tank units.
[…]
In recent months the Golan Heights has become one of the IDF’s main
exercise areas. At times this requires closing off roads. Infantry
troops and rows of tanks, armored personnel carriers and jeeps raise
clouds of dust in grazing fields and the air is filled with low-flying
helicopters and echoes of explosions.

A new Israeli training village, build and payed for by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, is designed to resemble Lebanese and Syrian townships.

While there have been multiple offers from the Syrian side for
unconditional talks with Israel, there has been no response from the Israeli side.

Is there any wonder Syrians believe that the Golan maneuvers are in preparation of an Israeli attack?

Lang seems to be pretty sure about this. He adds a question:

Will that coincide with American action against Iran?  Someone should ask the Chenians that.

Comments

Does the Israeli military evaluation betoken
1) simple denial for purposes of secrecy or
2) an indication that this time they are resisting pressure from the US and perhaps their own political leaders to rush into an ill-conceived assault, as occurred in Lebanon last year?

Posted by: small coke | Jul 5 2007 19:38 utc | 1

Does the Israeli military evaluation betoken …
They Israeli military esteblishment just wants to make sure they get the credit if the war is “a success”.
If it is not “a success”, they will deny all authorship on it and cite their earlier comments as attempts to warn aginst the war they lost.
They will not repeat the mistake Halutz made in taking responsibily. They finally learnd their U.S. bethrens lecture on that.

Posted by: b | Jul 5 2007 20:03 utc | 2

the IDF got spanked and sent home by Hizbullah (again) last summer, exposing for everyone to see how years of murdering rock throwing teenagers in the territories has left them unprepared for a determined, well armed foe.
so now they’re gonna take on Hizbullah and Syria while maybe dealing with incoming from Iran a well if the USAF and or the IDF hits Iran first or at the same time?
good luck with that.

Posted by: ran | Jul 5 2007 20:23 utc | 3

i don’t know what they teach at military schools in our times – but it has clearly nothing to do with tactics or strategy & certainly there is no understanding of geopolitics
perhaps they teach juggling or fire eating – walking the wire – exercises that offer more pleasure to the practioner than the public
you don’t need to be general giap to understand that the military elites of the us, of israel & elsewhere if it comes to that are clowns.
the war of the flea is being practiced to perfection by partisans who seem to have actually studied the nature of war in the last 100 years & seem to know a thing ot two about maps & tanks, for example

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jul 5 2007 20:57 utc | 4

This is just more bullshit which completely ignore that it is Hisbollah which has been keeping the UN forces safe in Lebanon. Safe from attack by the same Sunni groups which have caused trouble in the Northern Palestinian refugee camps. These groups which are comprised almost entirely of foreign mercenary fighters from Saudi, The Yemen and Egypt have been funded out of the Pentagon as part of a deal between the US and the governments of Israel, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to ensure that the Shia remain opressed. As Robert Fisk wrote last week when one of these groups bombed a UN APC full of Spanish troops killing 6 of them:

“the Hizbollah has been at great pains to try to protect the new UN force because they fear that just such an attack as occurred yesterday will prompt the US to claim falsely that it was their organisation – which is supported by Iran – that was responsible. In fact, intelligence officers from the French, Spanish and Italian embassies met secretly with Hizbollah officials in Sidon more than three weeks ago to seek assurances that Hizbollah would do their best, as the local armed militia, to protect the international force. The Hizbollah men agreed that they would do their best, but warned that al-Qa’ida-type groups in the Sunni areas of northern Lebanon may well try to breach their security. We shall now find out if America believes this – and it is the truth – or whether Western governments decide to blame Iran by claiming Hizbollah was behind the bombing of the UN troops.”

The Pentagon funding evidence as many MoA readers will be aware was first reported by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker back in March.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Jul 5 2007 21:06 utc | 5

did
glad yr here

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jul 5 2007 21:20 utc | 6

& in preparation for war & darker times i am watching on arte(as i imagine b & noirette are doing) la walkyrie by a certain richard wagner
ô brünnhilde

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Jul 5 2007 21:41 utc | 7

You too giap I heard that you had taken ill, and as slack as ever I didn’t write – excusing me self that being in hospital you wouldn’t be getting yer email but I am very pleased to see that you are back on the board and I will write when I can think of something apposite that hasn’t been said too many times already.
Listening to Wagner is a bit too down there for me at the moment as it is mid-winter in the south and it’s an extremely cold and wet one complete with snow, sleet even tornados a whole bunch of which ripped through some pretty remote communities in the middle of last night. Yes in many ways riding with the valkyries would mix well with that scenario but for me at the moment it may be rather over-egging the pudding as the english are wont to put it.
I’m totally gobsmacked by 20 years hard work by myself and others especially the aboriginal people of Nothern Australia is being demolished by John Howard in some pre-electioneering stunt. In fact words cannot describe the emotions especially since the latest iteration of an ALP leader one Kevin Rudd, in an even more spineless move than any of his predessessor and my old boss Kim B’sleazy has decided to keep his trap shut and let it happen, lest Howard win any brownie points from the sily whitefellas in Southern Australia who don’t understand what has happened, other than Mr Howard is trying to stop the aborigines from abusing their children.
Oops I’ve started and very off topic too so I better say no more other than child abuse is probably the saddest and most intractable problem faced by indigenous people who have been colonised. The reasons are complex, though in the main begun by appointing people to positions of power within a society who are not answerable to that society. The town I live in was one of the first whaling communities in NZ and there is still multi generational child abuse amongst the local Tangata Whenua which can be traced back 150 years to the whalers who would come ashore and put their scrawny white dicks into whatever they could grab ahold of. Any local trying to prevent it would likely be punished for insurrection against the colonial authority.
I may post further on this whole issue on the general thread when I have more time and less pressure – school holidays – my kids wanna do something – once they finally get outta bed that is (“Humpf teenagers!” muttered by the curmudgeon).

Posted by: Debs is dead | Jul 5 2007 22:41 utc | 8

DiD good to hear from you!
the breakdown of community cohesion and traditional norms of behaviour in the wake of colonial invasion and occupation is documented over and over again. I’d be interested to read your take on the history among e.g. local Tangata Whenua… might even connect to the quickly-buried scandals on Pitcairn Island where some of the whaler/coloniser descendants ended up…

Posted by: Anonymous | Jul 6 2007 1:30 utc | 9

I trust everyone recalls that the Israelis were about to settle w/Syria but Dickie Cheney got all hysterical & shut them down.
I have so had it w/violence & war…but couldn’t help worry that Brit. caper last week was part of a prelude…

Posted by: jj | Jul 6 2007 3:41 utc | 10

“Militants” …
Israeli Offensive in Central Gaza Kills 11 Militants

One of the wounded Palestinians was a cameraman for the Hamas-affiliated Al Aksa satellite television station who was filming the clashes. Al Jazeera television showed videotape of the cameraman lying wounded on the ground, then being shot twice in the legs from afar. The Palestinian cameraman who filmed the shooting said the fire had come from the direction of the Israeli forces.

Posted by: b | Jul 6 2007 4:58 utc | 11

So, do Israel hopes to get rid of Gaza before the Syrian war? Are they insane enough to hope to win fights in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza/West Bank, just like the US hopes to win in Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan?
Do they really think that a combined attack on Iran and Syria will go unnoticed, and that Russia and China will stand by eating popcorn?
Do they really think Pakistan regime will survive this and that they can keep control of their nukes?
Have they no fucking idea of what happened the last time Austria decided to spank Serbia – which was thought to be close to private vendetta by Austrians of the time?

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Jul 6 2007 9:57 utc | 12

Yes Debs that is right insofar as I can make anything out… (at 5)
Syria is claiming 1.4 million Iraqi refugees. Schools are on double shift, sometimes 60 pupils to a class.. Agriculture yield is down, drought and floods… They are canceling their wheat export contracts, but should still be self-sufficient with the about 8% extra pop. I read in one article that it is reducing its contracts with Jordan. GDP is way up, inflation as well. (from AP, Reuters..)
70 million dollaris have been given to the UNHCR for ..well… Iraqi refugees. This is a ridiculous sum. Besides it can’t be used to stretch territory, reduce inflation, invent teachers, etc. The real scandal is that the Iraqis who left Iraq have no status; if they had, more and different could be done. As is, everyone just pretends that Iraq is some kind of fun glitzy new Mesopotamia, and anyone who leaves does so because they have a taste for travel and have lined up a good job in a Telecom company elsewhere, hair gel in hand.
I can’t imagine how long Syria can keep up its impeccable behavior as a ‘host country.’ Prostitution / aids / desperate poverty / backlash (housing, particularly) / social strife are already evident, or just around the corner.
Meanwhile, the canton of Vaud (Switzerland) has just revoked all L permits – read cabaret girls and dancers. Almost all of these are from the ex-USSR satellites, Persia, and Iraq. (Persia because all these girls are called ‘Persians’ or ‘Russians’ following a simple geogaphy) ostensibly to ‘protect’ them as they are ‘exploited.’ Such hypocrisy. Le détail qui tue. And so it goes.

Posted by: Noirette | Jul 6 2007 17:52 utc | 13

The mainstream are treating war on Syria as a possible junket, venue, sortie, new scene…something like a traveling circus with the added thrill of top DJs.
One article I read did not even mention whom would be declaring war, or even fighting it, why is of course never mentioned, that was all left in the shade, of no importance. For Iraq, back in 2001 – 3, attempts were made to find rationales or excuses (WMD, Saddam as evil dictator, etc. etc.) and behind the scenes much was done to ‘legitimize’ it, obtain International approval, guarantees and support, based on what happened with Afghanistan, which passed by with a nod-nod under the radar, and Gulf War I, which was paid for by the International community, Japan in first place I believe.
War is coming to a venue close by you! Buy tickets for death now at discount!
Zap to Paris Hilton showing her underpants or showing that she wears none!
The endless beating of the media works, people become de-sensitized.
From the prof. cartoonist site, War with Syria? .. many pages..
link

Posted by: Noirette | Jul 6 2007 18:50 utc | 14