by Bea
Re: The possibility of Gaza being passed to Egyptian control and the West Bank to Jordanian control, the (predictable) response from the Arab world appears to be no way:
Egypt, Jordan and other Arab countries understand that Gaza cannot remain outside of consensual Palestinian control. This is the case not only because agreements between Israel and the PA define Gaza as an inseparable part of Palestine, but because no Arab country wants to relieve Israel of dealing with Gaza as long as the occupation continues, and no Arab country believes Abbas can rule Gaza under present conditions. Responsibility for the needs of 1.5 million people imprisoned in Gaza might end up on their doorstep either through the need to make donations or domestic public pressure to save Gaza.
Egypt and Jordan want to return the Gaza Strip and the Palestinian problem to the Palestinians and go back to acting as advisers, mediators or exerters of pressure. Thus, they need Hamas and Fatah to reconcile.
They feel the most direct way to do this is to aggrandize Abbas by emphasizing the gestures Israel is making, which will highlight the gap between those governed by Hamas and those governed by Fatah. The assumption is that such gestures will create public pressure on the leadership in Gaza that will in the end agree to move toward reconciliation.
Only problem with this analysis is that as I’ve said before, I doubt that the "masses" in the W.B. will really gain much benefit from whatever the US and Israel allow Abbas to receive. This is already in play, with the tax monies that Israel owes to the PA. Israel has decided that they are not ready to give them all over to the Palestinians at once. Rather:
According to sources at the Prime Minister’s Office, a timetable for the transfer has not yet been decided, nor has a method for the transfer been devised. They said that "throwing the money all at once would be a wrong move on Israel’s part," and that Israel wants to transfer the funds in an orderly and controlled manner.
The sources said they believe the first installment will be transferred within several days, in light of the new Palestinian government’s declaration it would honor the demands imposed on it by the Quartet of Middle East peace negotiators. The demands include recognition of Israel, renunciation of terror and abiding by previous Israeli-Palestinian agreements….
Industry, Trade and Labor Minister Eli Yishai said during the cabinet debate that the funds should be transferred to the PA in stages, in order to determine whether it has any practical effect in terms of strengthening Abbas.
"If Abu Mazen [Abbas] doesn’t act, Israel should limit the next monetary installments," said Yishai, adding that Israel must ensure that the money does not end up in Hamas hands.
It’s important to note that according to the above-cited article from Haaretz, already at the get go Israel says the tax monies total far less than the Palestinian accounts indicate.
Palestinian sources estimate that Israel currently holds $700 million in frozen revenues. Israeli sources estimate the sum at $562 million, after the deduction of Palestinian debts owed to Israel.
So they are slashing the total to begin with, then giving out only a part of that, and attaching strict conditions to the release of the next part… all with plenty of opportunities along the way to say "oh so sorry, you failed to meet our requirements so unfortunately we will have to resume witholding your tax money. The money, that is, that we automatically witheld from working Palestinians’ wages that is rightfully yours… to get it you must behave and comply with whatever hoops we tell you to jump through." How much more clearly can the total asymmetry of power be???
Israel has also refused to lift any of the hundreds of road blocks in the West Bank. This will surely "bolster Abbas." Particularly that he has announced that he has "received assurances from the US and Israel" ahead of the meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh that "serious" gestures will be forthcoming from Israel.
What gestures does the Arab world expect Israel to offer?
Earlier Sunday, Egypt urged Israel to halt West Bank raids as well as construction of the separation fence, as a further measure to boost Abbas.
In advance of the Monday talks, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit phoned Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and called on Israel to take a series of steps aimed at strengthening Abbas.
Aboul Gheit asked Israel to "act towards the Palestinian Authority in a way that achieves calm and creates the atmosphere for resuming the peace process," according to a ministry statement.
"This requires halting settlement operations, ending construction of the separation wall, stopping raids on cities and removing the checkpoints," he said….
But Aboul Gheit told Livni that Israel must let food into Gaza, along with water and electricity.
What gestures is Israel offering?
a. Release of PA funds collected by Israel in the form of customs duties and VAT. The funds will be released in a number of installments in "agreement with the PA emergency government" [Editorial translation: in accordance with Israel’s solely-determined, not mutually discussed, terms] and while ensuring that none of the money is given to militant groups.
b. Continuation of humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip – water, electricity, food, medicines, medical services and the opening of the Kerem Shalom crossing (which connects Israel, Egypt and Gaza) to the passage of people and cargo.
c. Reissuing VIP cards to Palestinians, and expanding the permits to Palestinian businessmen wishing to cross into Israel.
d. Allowing the transfer of armored cars to the Fatah forces in the West Bank.
e. Renewed security cooperation in the West Bank.
f. Resumption of the work of the combined security committee – Israel, Egypt, PA, U.S. – particularly in efforts to curtail arms smuggling to the Gaza Strip from Sinai.
And we mustn’t overlook the fact that Olmert has refused to comply with Condi’s request, during his recent trip to Washington, that Israel negotiate a final agreement with the Palestinians immediately, and then put it "on the shelf" until such time as the circumstances are ripe for its deployment.
Rice supports talks on a "shelf agreement" that would outline the permanent settlement but not be implemented immediately because of Abbas’ weak standing.
In Rice’s view, merely reaching such an agreement in principle would provide the Palestinians with a "political horizon" and hope, thereby encouraging them to fight terror and to establish governing institutions in preparation for an independent state.Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni shares Rice’s approach, but Olmert is strongly opposed to the idea. He believes that any settlement reached should be implemented, and fears a situation in which Israel approves the agreement, but Abbas fails to sell it to the Palestinian public. In that event, Israel might be pressured to make further concessions to make Abbas’ task easier.
Olmert agreed several months ago to launch talks with Abbas over "a political horizon," on condition that these deal not with the three core issues – Jerusalem, permanent borders and the refugees – but only with the nature of the future Palestinian state, its systems of government and law and security arrangements for the territories. Political sources in Jerusalem say that as Abbas becomes stronger and more able to sell the agreement to his people, Israel will agree to expand the discussion agenda to include the core issues.
Hmmm. How can Abbas or anyone possibly consider the nature of the future Palestinian state without knowing what its borders, capital, or population is likely to be???
The disagreement between Rice and Olmert was evident at the White House lunch meeting given by President George W. Bush for Olmert and senior U.S. and Israeli aides. As published previously in Haaretz, Rice talked about the importance of giving the Palestinians hope, "so that a Palestinian boy doesn’t want to commit suicide when he grows up." Olmert countered that Israel has paid a price for its mistakes in negotiating with the Palestinians, and spoke about the horrific suicide bombings he saw in Jerusalem after the failed summit at Camp David and the outbreak of the Al-Aqsa Intifada in 2000.
Finally, don’t miss this excoriating comment by Akiva Eldar about Bush:
Heavy clouds will float over today’s summit in sunny Sharm el-Sheikh….
And who isn’t coming to this sad party? The United States, the superpower with the lion’s share of responsibility for the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. Who stayed home? President George W. Bush, the one whose semi-hallucinatory dream of democratization has become a genuine reality of anarchy; whose adopted vision of two states – Israel and Palestine – has become during his tenure a distant dream. It is difficult to think of an American president who has caused more damage to Israeli interests than the president who is considered one of the friendliest to Israel of all time. No leader has done more than Bush – by commission as well as omission – to destroy the Palestinian Authority under Yasser Arafat and Mahmoud Abbas.
It was Bush who imposed the wretched elections on the Palestinians, despite Hamas’ refusal to fulfill the terms of the Oslo II Accords concerning the participation of political parties in the democratic process. Bush gave his blessing to sacrificing the road map on the altar of unilateral disengagement, an act of charity toward the Palestinian "refusal front" and a death blow to the already damaged peace camp….
When Hamas was dragged into the unity government and the cease-fire agreement, with great effort, the Bush administration spared no effort to defeat the new alliance. And now, after cooking up the stew, Bush is leaving his "friends" to eat it alone, while exhorting the use of obsolete tricks to raise the dead, such as removing checkpoints in the West Bank and releasing Palestinian prisoners. The two-state vision will have to wait for the next president. What’s the rush?…Officials in Olmert’s government are sighing in great relief over the lowering of the American profile. To understand the depth of these leanings, one must go to Damascus. Vice President Farouk Shara interpreted Bush’s statements using the following harsh, but accurate, words: "The American president does not want peace between Israel and Syria." Israeli intelligence officials are already warning that the opposite of peace is imminent war between Israel and Syria. This means that Bush is refusing to help prevent another round of blood-letting.
Let’s not hold our breath for what will come out of the meeting in Sharm el-Sheikh. Anyone want to place bets on how before Abbas’ government begs Hamas to reconstitute the national unity government or simply implodes in some other fashion?
I am sorry to say it, but if Shakespeare were alive today, even he could not possibly have conjured up a greater tragedy than the one presently unfolding in the once "Holy" Land.