Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 1, 2007
Xie Sees Worldwide Crash Coming

There are some not so good economy headlines today.

Home sales plunge in March reports CNN:

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index fell 4.9 percent in March, following a 1.1 percent increase in February. The index was down 10.5 percent from the March 2006 reading.

The above is the mortgage bubble bursting and the Boston Globe says there is a Private equity debt bubble that will also pop some time ahead. Additionally there is a huge bubble in the Chinese stock market and Andy Xie warns of China crash.

Until recently Xie was the Asia/China expert with Stephen S. Roach’s team at Morgan Stanley. I’ve always found his writing very solid, though a bit on the pessimistic side of things. But I have never heard him being this bearish:

Xie […] also warned that the global boom in equities would be over by 2008 and that this would coincide with a worldwide recession.

The recession would start from the United States and spiral down into Asia where exporters would be hit, Xie, 46, told Reuters in a telephone interview.

"I think it’s going to be bust very soon," Xie said, adding that a combination of excess liquidity, rising inflation and rich valuations would result in a global crash soon.

"People will be surprised. When the end comes, it’s going to be pretty bad," Xie added.

Yuck!

Comments

New paper from Daniel Gros via Brad DeLong.
Also not good news if you are long the US:

Over the last two decades, US residents have sold a total of around $5.5 trillion (thousand billion) worth net of IOUs to foreigners. Yet, the officially recorded net investment position of the US has deteriorated only by a little over one-half of this amount ($2.8 trillion) over the same period. The US capital market seems to have worked like a black hole for investors from the rest of world in which $2.7 trillion have vanished from sight – or at least from the official statistics.

The global current account balance discrepancy has now almost totally disappeared and even taking it into account for the 1990s would make little difference given the size of the US current account deficits over the last years. It is more likely that the statistics on the net US IIP are collected in a manner that tends to miss foreign-owned assets. It is thus likely that the true US net external debtor position is closer to 35-40% of GDP than the 22% reported officially.

Posted by: PeeDee | May 1 2007 23:22 utc | 1

Ever wonder what the inside of the ‘Great Depression’ really looked like????

Posted by: mikefromtexas | May 2 2007 0:54 utc | 2

No, Mike that Never aroused my curiousity – horror perhaps.
But in 1927 Real Estate Crashed.
1929 Stock Market followed suit.
There was a reason FDR put all those institutions in place that xUS Elite’s across the board began dismantling in 1973 in the Great Counter-Reformation. Best argument there is against elites running things.

Posted by: jj | May 2 2007 1:04 utc | 3

Regarding the topic, I thought this may interest b and others…
The Black Swan

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Taleb is out. Reviews in the Wall Street Journal, LA Times, and Financial Times. Just in time with those of us with a love of Hume’s problem of induction, non-Gaussian distributions and financial intellectualism. Read an early draft of chapter 16, The Bell Curve, That Great Intellectual Fraud. Read Taleb’s “philisophical and literary notebook.” Then, in a feat of metanarrative rarely seen outside of Metatalk, read his comments on comments on the book. Previously on Metafilter: Languagehat has already made his thoughts on Taleb known, it wasn’t pretty, and someone with “vested interests in Taleb” responded. Taleb, refreshingly, does not shy away from debates about his work.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | May 2 2007 5:04 utc | 4

My parents are Depression babies and both made it through, obviously. Grandpa kept a small restaurant so there at least was food. Some of the customers used barter to pay for it as late as 1942. But it wasn’t a pleasant time and, for us, the Depression did not end til 1968!
The difference between that Depression and this was that the climate did not come into the act except in the Dust Bowl. A financial meltdown combined with worldwide failing crops and catastrophic weather events due to climate ‘change’ (which only a moron would keep denying) would lead to something new and infinitely worse.

Posted by: hopping madbunny | May 2 2007 10:18 utc | 5

” A financial meltdown combined with worldwide failing crops and catastrophic weather events due to climate ‘change’ would lead to something new and infinitely worse.”
Actually, it happened before in history. It’s exactly why we should be quite concerned,

Posted by: CluelessJoe | May 2 2007 10:49 utc | 6

C’mon back Clueless – I want to hear the rest of the story.

Posted by: rapt | May 2 2007 14:32 utc | 7

Xie of the ‘dollar smile’ (by which he means the dollar weakens in sorta-bad times but strengthens as a safe haven in the worst of times). Foreign portfolio investment indicates that sorta-bad times are in prospect. And with China’s new investment fund and other official moves toward diversification, smile my ass, what we have here is a dollar rictus, particularly against the yen, that will export our recession much quicker than Xie thinks. This is gonna be great.

Posted by: carrion trade | May 2 2007 17:26 utc | 8

carrion
bingo

Posted by: slothrop | May 2 2007 17:33 utc | 9

re Madbunny’s post above – see Europe Today:
April 2007 was the eighth consecutive month of higher-than-normal temperatures in Germany, and the 13th straight month of unusually warm conditions in France.

The British Met Office said last week that April — and the 12 months ending in April — were set to be the warmest in the 350 years that records of what is known as the Central England Temperature have been kept. Definitive figures are to be released on Tuesday, a Met Office spokesman said.

In the north of France, where the unseasonable warmth has struck hardest, farmers are irrigating more than usual, raising the prospect of water shortages if hot and dry conditions continue.
French wine makers also could face difficulties if a sudden cold snap ruins vines that have matured unseasonably early because of the warm spring.
German farmers already are complaining about devastation from the dryness.
“If there is no steady rainfall in the next ten days, we are facing a crop failure for barley, wheat and sugar beets,” Michael Lohse, a spokesperson for the German Farmers’ Association, told the most recent edition of Focus magazine. He warned of rising beer prices later in the year.
In some areas of Germany, authorities are advising citizens not to light traditional Walpurgisnacht bonfires, set each year to mark the coming of spring, because the dry and brittle conditions this year raise the risk of forest fires.
In Germany, April set records in three categories — it was the driest, sunniest and warmest April since comparable records have been kept, starting in 1901. Ethanol, Anyone?

Posted by: jj | May 2 2007 17:49 utc | 10

@rapt – 7
In 1788 the French saw a crop failure due to storms and heavy rainfall. 1788/89 was the coldest winter in 300 years and the French got very, very hungry. At the same time they had a corrupt class of rulers: “Let them eat cake” they said (verbaly.) 1789 is the year the French Revolution started …
April here is said to be a mixture of snow, hail and rain – stormy with bits of sun. The last three weeks I have not noticed rain, but did use sun lotion when walking the beach in high summer temperatures.
This and the additionally coming warming will lead to food shortage. Not nessessarily in our countries but in the poor ones.
I am outraged when I hear any politician talk about ethanol from eatable crops to replace oil for SUV drivers …

Posted by: b | May 2 2007 18:29 utc | 11

fwiw- the cake in the phrase “let them eat cake” (rumored but not absolutely attributed to M. Antoinette refers to the baked on parts of bread that attach to the oven. so the phrase did not indicate indifference as flippancy (let them eat cake tho obviously they could not afford it) the phrase meant let them eat the crumbs from the oven.
my pedantic moment of the day (and my only one, I hope)

Posted by: fauxreal | May 2 2007 22:21 utc | 12

I’m outraged that hemp is outlawed when it is a seasonal crop that can replace so many forestry crops which would help to mitigate temps by leaving trees. it doesn’t need massive insecticides,etc. to grow, and there are literally thousands of uses… including recent studies that its flower has shown the ability to shrink lung tumors.
again, it would rejuvenate american industry to have a local crop that can be processed for items (clothes, oil, rope…that could be produced and consumed locally, therefore requiring less fuel for transportation.
someone should start an advertising campaign to talk not only about the many uses of hemp, but also the uses of marijuana, because the flower is a powerful aphrodisiac. call it herbal fem-agra. Promote it as a good thing for a healthy christian marriage because wifey can get a little loosey-goosey and, hey, if you wanna bring in the choir boy, okay, but just not meth, Jimmy I’m not gay…oh wait, he probably wouldn’t want that for his wife.

Posted by: fauxreal | May 2 2007 22:29 utc | 13

Hey now, let’s not forget Peak Oil and Gas. That’s going to be as big a player as global warming. The survivors will be people learning primitive survival skills who will lead humanity back to the hunter-gathering lifestyle nature’s design meant us to live. No other long-term strategy will be possible. And once the planet starts to heal after the massive human die-off, this return will be a good thing.

Posted by: Loveandlight | May 3 2007 5:42 utc | 14

Glad to see the reference to hemp. I understand it can be grown almost anywhere. It’s myriad uses from food to fuel to medicinal … the list is very long and is amazing.
I don’t have a link handy, but a google search will turn up lots of surprising information.
Good point made about the fact that it lends itself to small cottage industry. No wonder the corporate powers want so badly to suppress information and even make growing it illegal.

Posted by: Oregongal | May 3 2007 23:51 utc | 15

No one has mentioned the disappearing honeybees. This may be the most immediate threat to the world’s food supply.

Posted by: Oregongal | May 3 2007 23:55 utc | 16

re: Ethanol
Is it really a good idea to use a large portion of what arable land remains to grow food for vehicles?
As for the bees, some people disregard the importance of the tiny buggers to biodiversity and seem to assume that nature will somehow immediately fill the void left by their extinction
There is an article in this month’s Nat’l Geographic about Jamestown and a good portion is devoted to how the immigrants changed the biological landscape of the Americas with the flora/fauna they brought with them, including the honeybee and its importance in the grand scheme.
A commenter (someplace else, don’t remember where) on the disappearing bees pointed to this article as proof that we should have much greater concern for our effect on the environment.
Don’t worry about a few bees (which could be disappearing very likely due to our effect on the environment) was the tone of the comment. It made me wonder if I’d read the same article…

Posted by: jcairo | May 5 2007 8:50 utc | 17