Saudi Arabia is secretly forging ties with al-Qaida elements and Shia Arab militias in Iraq in preparation for a summer showdown with coalition forces intended to tip a wavering US Congress into voting for full military withdrawal, US officials say.
"Saudi Arabia is fighting a proxy war in Iraq and it’s a very dangerous course for them to be following. They are already committing daily acts of war against US and British forces," a senior US official in Baghdad warned. "They [Saudi Arabia] are behind a lot of high-profile attacks meant to undermine US will and British will, such as the rocket attacks on Basra palace and the Green Zone [in Baghdad]. The attacks are directed by the Al Mukhabarat Al A’amah (General Intelligence Directorate) which is connected right to the top [of the Saudi government]."
The official said US commanders were bracing for a nationwide, Saudi-orchestrated summer offensive, linking al-Qaida and Shia insurgents to Riyadh’s Sunni militia allies, that Saudi Arabia hoped would trigger a political mutiny in Washington and a US retreat. "We expect that al-Qaida and Saudi Arabia will both attempt to increase the propaganda and increase the violence prior to Petraeus’s report in September [when the US commander General David Petraeus will report to Congress on President George Bush’s controversial, six-month security "surge" of 30,000 troop reinforcements]," the official said.
"Certainly it [the violence] is going to pick up from their side. There
is significant latent capability in Iraq, especially Saudi-sponsored
capability. They can turn it up whenever they want. You can see that
from the pre-positioning that’s been going on and the huge stockpiles
of Saudi weapons that we’ve turned up in the last couple of months. The
relationships between Saudi Arabia and groups like al-Qaida are very
fluid," the official said.
"It often comes down to individuals, and people constantly move around.
For instance, the Sunni Arab so-called resistance groups use Salafi
jihadist ideology for their own purposes. But the whole Saudi Arabia-
al-Qaida linkup is very sinister."
Saudi Arabia has maintained close links to Iraq’s Sunni political
parties and militias but has previously eschewed collaboration with
al-Qaida and Shia insurgents.
US officials now say they have firm evidence that Riyadh has switched
tack as it senses a chance of victory in Iraq. In a parallel
development, they say they also have proof that Saudi Arabia has
reversed its previous policy in Afghanistan and is now supporting and
supplying the Taliban’s campaign against US, British and other Nato
forces.
Riyadh’s strategy to discredit the US surge and foment a decisive
congressional revolt against Mr Bush is national in scope and not
confined to the Sunni west, its traditional sphere of influence, the
senior official in Baghdad said. It included stepped-up coordination
with Shia militias such as Moqtada al-Sadr’s Jaish al-Mahdi as well as Turkish-backed Sunni Arab groups and al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, he added.
Saudi Arabia was also expanding contacts across the board with
paramilitary forces and political groups, including Kurdish parties
such as the PUK, a US ally.
"Their strategy takes into account all these various parties. Saudi
Arabia is playing all these different factions to maximise its future
control and maximise US and British difficulties. Their co-conspirator
is Turkey which is allowing the takfirists [fundamentalist Salafi
jihadis] to come across the border," the official said.
Any US decision to retaliate against Saudi Arabia on its own territory
could be taken only at the highest political level in Washington, the
official said. But he indicated that American patience was wearing thin.
Warning that the US was "absolutely determined" to hit back hard
wherever it was challenged by Saudi proxies or agents inside Iraq, he
cited the case of five alleged members of the Al Mukhabarat Al A’amah
detained in Fallujah in January. Despite strenuous protests from
Riyadh, which claims the men are diplomats, they have still not been
released.
"Riyadh is behaving like a racecourse gambler. They’re betting on all
the horses in the race, even on people they fundamentally don’t trust,"
a senior administration official in Washington said. "They don’t know
what the outcome will be in Iraq. So they’re hedging their bets."
The administration official also claimed that notwithstanding recent US
and British overtures, Turkey was still collaborating closely with
Saudi Arabia’s strategy in Iraq.
"80% to 90%" of the foreign jihadis entering Iraq were doing so from Turkish territory, he said.
Despite recent diplomatic contacts, and an agreement to hold bilateral
talks at ambassadorial level in Baghdad next week, US officials say
there has been no let-up in hostile Saudi activities, including
continuing support for violence, weapons smuggling and training.
"Saudi Arabia is perpetuating the cycle of sectarian violence through
support for extra-judicial killing and murder cells. They bring Iraqi
militia members and insurgent groups into Saudi Arabia for training and
then help infiltrate them back into the country. We have plenty of
evidence from a variety of sources. There’s no argument about that.
That’s just a fact," the senior official in Baghdad said.
In trying to force an American retreat, Saudi Arabia’s hardline
leadership also hoped to bring about a humiliating political and
diplomatic defeat for the US that would reduce Washington’s regional
influence while increasing Riyadh’s own.
But if Saudi Arabia succeeded in "prematurely" driving US and British
forces out of Iraq, the likely result would be a "colossal humanitarian
disaster" and possible regional war drawing in Iran, and Syria, he said.
Despite such concerns, or because of them, the US welcomed the chance
to talk to Saudi Arabia, the senior administration official said. "Our
agenda starts with force protection in Iraq," he said. But there were
many other Iraq-related issues to be discussed. Recent pressure had
shown that Saudi Arabia’s behaviour could be modified, the official
claimed: "Last winter they were literally getting away with murder."
But tougher action by security forces in Iraq against Saudi agents and
networks, the dispatch of an additional aircraft carrier group to the
Gulf had given
Riyadh pause, he said.
Washington analysts and commentators predict that Gen Petraeus’s report
to the White House and Congress in early September will be a pivotal
moment in the history of the four-and-a-half-year war – and a decision
to begin a troop drawdown or continue with the surge policy will hinge
on the outcome. Most Democrats and many Republicans in Congress believe
Iraq is in the grip of a civil war and that there is little that a
continuing military presence can achieve. "Political will has already
failed. It’s over," a former Bush administration official said.
A senior adviser to Gen Petraeus reported this month that the surge had
reduced violence, especially sectarian killings, in the Baghdad area
and Sunni-dominated Anbar province. But the adviser admitted that much
of the trouble had merely moved elsewhere, "resulting in spikes of
activity in Diyala [to the north] and some areas to the south of the
capital". "Overall violence is at about the same level [as when the
surge began in February]."
Saudi officials flatly deny US and British allegations of involvement
in internal violence in Iraq or in attacks on coalition forces.
Interviewed in Riyadh recently, Prince Saud Al-Faisa, foreign minister
with primary responsibility for Saudi Arabia’s policy in Iraq, said:
"We believe it would be to the benefit of both the occupiers and the
Iraqi people that they [the coalition forces] withdraw immediately."