Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
May 23, 2007
Confusing Iraq Strategies

There are several accounts this week on future U.S. planing in Iraq. These reports seem to contradict each other and they of course contradict the facts on the ground.

None of the strategies discussed involves a decrease of troop numbers and as the Democrats (predictively) have folded and conceded defeat to themselves, Bush certainly has no need to plan any decrease at all. With Congress giving more money than he asked for, troop strength will increase.

The "surge" did look fake to me when it was announced. Some 25,000 additional troops for some month was the official line. Now smart people at Hearst newspapers have analyzed the actual Pentagon activation orders and the numbers look much higher:

When additional support troops are included in this second troop "surge," the total number of U.S. troops in Iraq could increase from 162,000 now to more than 200,000 — a record high number — by the end of the year.

The second surge of troops to Iraq is being executed by deploying more combat brigades to the country, plus extending tours of duty for troops already there.

Taken together, the steps could put elements of as many as 28 combat brigades in Iraq by Christmas, according to an analysis of deployment orders by Hearst Newspapers.

The actions could boost the number of combat soldiers from 52,500 in early January to as many as 98,000 by the end of this year, if the Pentagon overlaps arriving and departing combat brigades.

For real boots on ground numbers one has to add the 100,000 contractor currently in Iraq. More soldiers there will need more services so these contractor numbers will surge too.

But what are these soldiers for?

The on-the record account of several people involved in current strategy planing in today’s Washington Post does not mention any increased troop numbers.

The strategy planing is explained as three pillars. First bringing U.S. troops into the streets to "protecting Iraq’s population", second building the government through a period of 18-21 month instead of a "rapid transition" and third to kick out officials and commanders with sectarian agendas (good luck with that.) The plan calls for keeping Maliki in his position.

The above plan was briefed by the military in Baghdad. Yesterday David Ignatius, also at the Washington Post, had a report titeled After the Surge. It was based on "senior administration officials". That report does not fit today’s account.
Ignatius wrote:

The new policy would focus on training and advising Iraqi troops rather than the broader goal of achieving a political reconciliation in Iraq, which senior officials recognize may be unachievable within the time available.

The post-surge policy would, in many ways, track the recommendations of the Baker-Hamilton report, which senior administration officials say the president now supports.

Did the Baker-Hamilton report recommend to increase troop size by 60%? Certainly not.

Yet another contradicting account based on "a former senior administration official" is given in the Guardian today:

The Bush administration is developing plans to "internationalise" the Iraq crisis, including an expanded role for the United Nations, as a way of reducing overall US responsibility for Iraq’s future and limiting domestic political fallout from the war as the 2008 election season approaches.

The former official, who is familiar with administration thinking, predicted Mr Bush would instead ask Congress to agree a six-month extension of the surge after Gen Petraeus presented his "progress report" in early September.

Mr Bush will sweeten the pill by pursuing a series of steps intended to "hand off" many current US responsibilities to the international community, the former official said. The president would try simultaneously to placate congressional and public opinion by indicating willingness to talk about a future troop "drawdown".


If all else failed, the US might seek an arrangement with Mr Sadr, if only to secure an orderly transition, the official claimed. "Cutting a deal with the Mahdi army is [vice-president] Dick Cheney’s deep fallback option."

Now what is this? Are these plans to be combined? Are the reports wrong? Are they leaked to confuse?

Meanwhile there is some strain on the lines of communication, i.e. some necessary convoys seem not to come through, salad bars get closed even on the big bases and the troops have to eat MREs. More troops in the country equals more convoys equals more targets. I therefore expect such logistic problems to increase.

But what are all these troops to do in Iraq anyway?

Comments

It was decided long ago that the U.S. would not leave Iraq. All the BS is just a show for the sheeple.

Posted by: Ben | May 23 2007 20:23 utc | 1

they aren’t leaving

Posted by: annie | May 23 2007 20:50 utc | 2

On NPR yesterday morning, there was a story about Air Force personnel being trained in ground combat.

Since 2003, more than 30,000 airmen and sailors have been retrained to do things they normally wouldn’t be called on to do, like run vehicle convoys, take part in street patrols, and get used to the sound of an AK-47 — the weapon of choice for insurgents in Iraq.

So much for air superiority. Everybody sing along now:
Down on the ground, Junior Birdmen
Down on the ground, ne’er to fly
Down on the ground, Junior Birdmen
Keep your eyes upon the sky….
When you hear the AK’s chat’ring,
When you see the Humvees merge,
You’ll know the Junior Birdmen
Were suckered for the “surge”

Posted by: catlady | May 23 2007 23:53 utc | 3

So where are these troops coming from?
Are we looking at the US destroying its troops through combat stresses?
How long can the US keep this up without a draft?

Posted by: edwin | May 24 2007 0:35 utc | 4

How long without a draft? How does a $40K signing bonus sound to a kid whose best job prospect just got off-shored to Malaysia? goarmy.com–play some video games and sign up.

Posted by: catlady | May 24 2007 0:55 utc | 5

Hah. From goarmy.com: subheading “After the Army” doesn’t spend any time addressing the notion that what you might get is the hereafter.
Chat with a recruiter! Uh, sir, what if they come at me with a pointed stick, sir?

Posted by: catlady | May 24 2007 0:59 utc | 6

(May 23, 2007)mullah cimoc say now time for him aemriki making the full investigation for discover:
1. Who starting this war?
2. Who faking the WMD intel?
3. What am him neocon? Am he the dual national israel citizen, or maybe him wife,
she a israeli citizen? Why so much israel connection. What him third party
country providing the fake wmd intel?
4. Why the nobody at us military academy at west point teach ameriki soldier read three volume treatise by chairman mao tse tung on guerilla warfare? So obvious for anyone study this subject: foreign occupier never succeed against determined guerilla resistance unless garrison entire country, this meaning every city, the town, the village. This taking the 1,000,000 ameriki soldier.
So much the suffering and destroy too many people even the aemriki people. USA woman take the LBT (low back tattoo) and the son he becoming the gay man with the beautifyl finger tip. Why this happen?
Am usa media so control for him google: mighty wurlitzer +cia and learning
him usa press not the free now.
so many aemriki boys, them die for who? Who the making this war.

Posted by: mullah cimoc | May 24 2007 2:50 utc | 7

“That’s one small step for man,
and one giant leap for aerospace-defense welfare.”

Posted by: Wurlitzer Shimon | May 24 2007 5:50 utc | 8

Uh, this thing about food logistics problems is a serious — no, ominous sign. It’s not just the outlying posts, it’s even hurting the Green Zone!
Could some of this problem be a consequence of the recent spate of blowing up bridges?
Also, will the withdrawal of Brits (and Danes) in the south somehow improve overland logistics from Kuwait?

Posted by: Chuck Cliff | May 24 2007 6:55 utc | 9

Realignment toward nationalism in Iraq.

Posted by: anna missed | May 24 2007 6:56 utc | 10

To the detail of food, always very telling – The US imports everything and regulates all it can, like a hyper obsessive Victorian nanny living amongst savages.
Ex. Feeding Iraqi prisoners, 17 000 of them and set to rise steeply..: from the Wa Po: “According to the food contract, local Iraqis and Iraqi companies are prohibited from preparing and serving food for the detainees. …Instead, the contractor is to use “expatriates and third-country nationals.” (they) must live in trailers or tents provided by the contractor on a U.S. military base near the food facility. (…) However, the guards receive some benefits: Their meals on the base include a wider selection of food and “shall consist of 25% larger portions” than detainees’ meals, according to the contract. (..) All food consumed at the Camp Cropper prison must be purchased outside Iraq and convoyed into the country by either U.S. or Iraqi military forces, according to the contract.link
Managing the country that is ‘the US in Iraq’ – sort of pasted on the original place – is of course incredibly costly, mostly in terms of energy (oil – very little will be end-used for military operations).
The US soldier in Iraq is amongst the all time gas guzzlers ever, and the logistics (or even supply?) problems can only get worse – surge, of course, but also all the energy required to maintain and *expand* that way of life, that territory, with the simultaneous destruction of the Iraqi way of life. Seeing the US as building a strange ersatz country, rather than fighting a war with soldiers to attain military objectives, helps, I think, to understand the confusion and contradictory ‘strategies’ – no one knows really how to do it, or how to go on pursuing this kind of take-over.
Local agriculture in Iraq is probably invisible by now. The Iraqis increasingly live, if it can be called that, off food aid (Australian wheat, etc.)
Children make bombs so as to be able to feed themselves and their parents, joining the war economy, and no doubt doing without fresh cucumbers, just like the US soldiers (I mean getting less fresh food):
UN agency

Posted by: Noirette | May 24 2007 12:26 utc | 11

why can americans not see the simplicity.
A) Apologise for the illegal invasion and accept responsibility
B) Get the UN in to finish the reconstruction of Govt and country
C) Pay 1 trillion Dollars as a fine and for reconstruction
D) Get out

Posted by: john stack | May 24 2007 15:35 utc | 12

Noirette @ 11, good post in my humble opinion.
Highlighting just one of your sentences:
“Local agriculture in Iraq is probably invisible by now. The Iraqis increasingly live, if it can be called that, off food aid (Australian wheat, etc.).”
Your comment illustrates well what I have said in other MOA threads… If this isn’t genocide, whether by design or willful neglect, then I don’t know what is.
Actually though, most of the wheat going to Iraq comes from the U.S.
This (pdf file) from the latest Iraq Reconstruction Report (April, 2007):
Iraq 101 — Knowledge Brief
Exports – Commodities: crude oil 84%, crude materials
excluding fuels 8%, food and live animals 5%
Exports – Partners: US 49.7%, Italy 10.4%, Spain 6.3%, Canada
5.6% (2005)
Imports – Commodities: food, medicine, manufactures
Imports – Partners: Turkey 23.4%, Syria 23.1%, US 11.7%,
Jordan 6.3% (2005)

Hey – look at this on Page 5 of the report: “Mushroom growing” will save the Iraq economy! Such arrogance by the U.S. government shown below is almost beyond belief.

Dept. of Agricultural Cites Three Projects with High Potential
Information Provided by U.S. Dept. of Agriculture
Mushroom Commercial Growing Farms:
Mushroom commercial growing farm’s have the potential of being a profitable business at several levels of the Iraqi economy. Mushrooms are easy to grow, using simple adopted technologies and do not require large pieces of land. The development of mushrooms is in line with the government’s policy of diversification of the country’s production base. According to the USDA, the purpose of this project is to create new jobs and potentially new income sources for lower income Iraqis. The project will increase local economic activity and decrease the amount of imported mushrooms.
Olive Production:
Olives are a potentially important cash crop for Iraqi farmers. Olives are grown throughout the region, and they have demonstrated production capacity in all Iraq provinces. Construction is underway to establish the orchards in eight provinces: Salah ad Din, Diyala, Wassit, Babylon, Qadissiya, Muthanna, Thi-Qar and Basrah. The orchards will be planted with both high oil and table fruit olive varieties, according to the region of the country and the variety. The central area of Iraq is more favorable to table olive varieties, while orchards in the southern region will be planted with both table and high oil producing varieties of olives. USDA officials state that each orchard will be planted with 600 seedlings, for a total of 9,000 olive oil trees.
Soil Salinity:
It is estimated that 28 million acres in Iraq are cultivable. However, salinity has always been a major issue. In fact, according to USDA, it was recorded as a cause of crop yield reductions some 3800 years ago. To reduce the region’s inadequate drainage problems of and high soil salinity and to improve agricultural production, the USDA through a contractor, is assisting the Iraqi Ministry of Agriculture with the creation of four pilot drainage and salinity catchment areas in Baghdad, Muthanna, and Wassit provinces. Each pilot area is between 250-1200 acres and is used to test drainage systems. An area of 24-74 acres is used as a test plot to carry out research activities.

Also interesting in the report is the mention of “aid” for reconstruction by Japan. This is bull. Japan imports most all of its oil and this is just a vertical market “investment” for Japan.

Posted by: Rick | May 24 2007 15:56 utc | 13

Interesting Article
Warning to critics of Iraq War

Consider these familiar assertions:
1. If Donald Rumsfeld had listened to the generals and invaded with more troops, Iraq would be stable today.
2. If the U.S. had provided security and basic services after the initial invasion, Iraqis would have embraced America’s presence and agenda by now.
3. If Paul Bremer had neither de-Ba’athified nor disbanded the Iraqi army after the invasion, the insurgency would have been manageable or non-existent.

If you agree with any of these claims, you are an unwitting participant in American Imperialism. You criticize the “handling of the war” but you display faith in the capacity of the US to remake the world in its image through military force and administration. Such faith reinforces the logic of imperialist misadventures like Iraq, and paves the way for future ones. This illustrates an important feature of the discourse surrounding the war: In the wake of failed imperialist projects, critics often leave military imperialism itself unquestioned and unchallenged. Indeed, they participate in its rehabilitation.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | May 24 2007 16:48 utc | 14

The key to the 200k projected troop numbers is that arriving and departing units overlap for a period of a few weeks – the number is not likely to be sustained for more than a 2-4 week period, and a good portion of the departing troops in this figure will likely be in transit to Kuwait and beyond – ie “demobilising”.
Whilst it’s tempting to project nefarious intent, the reality is that the US is stuck in the entropy trap – contested occupations require an ever larger input of resources and manpower by the occupier over time simply to stand still; eventually the occupation collapses as the resource base stretches beyond the limits of sustainability.
It’s also worth noting that the bulk of the departing troops will in all likelihood have already served extended 15-18 month tours, and it will be politically difficult to extend their deployments even further.

Posted by: dan | May 24 2007 17:39 utc | 15

@dan – I agree, but
and it will be politically difficult to extend their deployments even further
What makes you think so? Who would restrain Bush from ordering this?

Posted by: b | May 24 2007 18:23 utc | 16

It’s not the politics at home. But when the Army starts to break down, Bush will begin to lose control of his very pointy stick.

Posted by: citizen | May 24 2007 18:56 utc | 17

Noirette @11 “Local agriculture in Iraq is probably invisible by now. The Iraqis increasingly live, if it can be called that, off food aid (Australian wheat, etc.)”
I don’t think this is right. There’s been a vast expansion in the land cultivated at Samarra (the place I know) since the invasion in 2003. I would think that Iraqis are mainly living from their own resources, much more so than in the time of Saddam. However the internal refugees, what do they live off?

Posted by: Alex | May 24 2007 21:17 utc | 18

I would think that Iraqis are mainly living from their own resources, much more so than in the time of Saddam.
you would think wrong. from wikipedia.

Saddam focused on fostering loyalty to the Ba’athist government in the rural areas. After nationalizing foreign oil interests, Saddam supervised the modernization of the countryside, mechanizing agriculture on a large scale, and distributing land to peasant farmers.[11] The Ba’athists established farm cooperatives, in which profits were distributed according to the labors of the individual and the unskilled were trained. The government’s commitment to agrarian reform was demonstrated by the doubling of expenditures for agricultural development in 1974-1975. Moreover, agrarian reform in Iraq improved the living standard of the peasantry and increased production.
Saddam became personally associated with Ba’athist welfare and economic development programs in the eyes of many Iraqis, widening his appeal both within his traditional base and among new sectors of the population. These programs were part of a combination of “carrot and stick” tactics to enhance support in the working class, the peasantry, and within the party and the government bureaucracy.
Saddam’s organizational prowess was credited with Iraq’s rapid pace of development in the 1970s; development went forward at such a fevered pitch that two million persons from other Arab countries and Yugoslavia worked in Iraq to meet the growing demand for labor.

Posted by: annie | May 25 2007 0:57 utc | 19

Annie @19. I’m talking about my own personal experience, not reading in Wikipedia. What I saw on the ground. Though it is true that my remark about expansion is based on satellite imagery. You can see it on Google Earth, or the maps section of Google.

Posted by: Alex | May 25 2007 7:09 utc | 20

@Alex – Google sat pictures are NOT current. On Iraq most of them are from 2004 or so.

Michael Gordon, co-writer of Judith Miller is still a propaganda outlet. Here he explains based on “intelligence” that al-Sadr is back in Iraq after four month in Iran: Iraqi Shiite Cleric Reportedly Ends a Sojourn in Iran
Nowhere does he say that Sadr ha denied being to Iran at all. There never was any public proof that he was in Iran – only U.S. military spokesman said so. al-Sadr people each time denied this.
Then Gordon has this: “Some Americans also suggest that he may be trying to take advantage of the absence of one of his main Shiite rivals, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, who has come to the United States for medical treatment.”
Yes true, Hakim was in the U.S. and then he did fly to Iran for treatment. Not that Gordon would not know this, he just doesn’t tell you.
His tell is al-Sadr bad, Hakim good. Sadr being in Iraq all the time and Hakim being in Iran doesn’t fit his tale.

Posted by: b | May 25 2007 7:29 utc | 21

Agriculture in Iraq may be changing: Opium: Iraq’s deadly new export

Farmers in southern Iraq have started to grow opium poppies in their fields for the first time, sparking fears that Iraq might become a serious drugs producer along the lines of Afghanistan.

Posted by: b | May 25 2007 9:23 utc | 22

What I saw on the ground.
I would think that Iraqis are mainly living from their own resources, much more so than in the time of Saddam.
You can see it on Google Earth, or the maps section of Google.

i’m not sure what you are saying. are you saying you think the agriculture is more sustainable now than pre invasion because you saw it then and now? do google maps show the past?
do you mean iraq is more able to sustain itself now as a result of US invasion/occupation than during the US imposed sanctions?
are you suggesting american ingenuity has brought advancement to agriculture in iraq..finally? or are you speaking solely of samarra? what do you think of mansano?

Posted by: annie | May 25 2007 10:12 utc | 23

that was for alex #20.

Posted by: annie | May 25 2007 10:13 utc | 24

“Mushroom growing” will save the Iraq economy! wrote Rick.
Mushrooms are indeed very useful, as you can grow them in cellars.
But not for the Iraqis. Iraq used to be a big food exporter. I don’t know how the dates are doing right now, but many date plantations were destroyed and others left untended. All this is so typical it is scary – there is a kind of evil lurking under the surface, masking itself as lack of common sense or benevolent meddling. Creepy. Of course the Iraqis are turning to the poppy – no one is going to stop them doing that. (b linked above.)
Yes, most of wheat is US. There was a wheat war between the US and Aus (which led amongst others, to the only foreignor in the CPA getting the boot, he was an Australian, though I don’t remember the story precisely now) and Howard, just like Tony the Phony got nothing in return for his pains and had to capitulate.
Alex, I was a bit hasty for sure. I have also read about new plots, fruit mostly. As soon as I have time I will look it up thoroughly. One of the main difficulties I read (about 2 years ago) is that Iraqis are no longer allowed to keep their seeds for re-planting, they have to buy from Monsanto, to qualify for Gvmt. help or bank loans, etc. So, the destruction of traditional agriculture.
Another big difficulty is, naturally, water. Lack of clean water is usually seen in terms of child death – the UN published a report recently and it is as bad as one could expect. But broken infrastructure (pipes ditches etc) plus disruption of tradition – cooperation, informal water sharing, etc – as well as the previous structure, which ppl have adapted to over the years – can put paid to many a farm. Or most of them.
Then there is energy. This oil rich country has outta sight prices, a black market, endless car queues, as everyone knows. Ppl borrow or trade small jerrycans of kerosene…and have returned to traditional ovens (wood, charcoal), oil lamps, and candles. How do you run a tractor in that situation? Or a pump? How? If your budget is tight, your work day full, your position unfavorable, the bank (what bank moreover?) will not speak to you? How do you find ppl to work when stability is gone and in any case you cannot pay them? It seems desperate to me. .. From far off.

Posted by: Noirette | May 25 2007 16:41 utc | 25

b – yes I know Google Earth images are not current. However they are post-invasion.
annie @23 – what I am saying is that the agricultural situation in Iraq is much more complicated than one might imagine. Iraq used to have quite good agriculture, with some exports. Then in the 70s, came the rise in oil royalties, and then Saddam. Saddam did indeed invest a lot of oil money in agriculture. But it was all from the top down, with little consultation with local interests. So I guess much of the investment went to waste. At any rate in the 80s, Iraqi agricultural production went down (Iran war taking young men away, but also the laziness of knowing you have oil money), and food had to be imported. With the 1991 war, food imports on a large scale stopped. The area of land under cultivation went up, and one presumes that it was because new efforts had to be made to feed themselves locally. Since the 2003 invasion, the area under cultivation has expanded massively. There may be an issue here that control by central government over what farmers do has stopped. Otherwise the presumption must be that they are largely feeding themselves. (with the exception of the internal refugees).
At any rate all the anecdotal evidence is that in spite of the dangers on the roads, many truckloads of produce continue to come into the cities. (Baghdad less than was the case). The farmers and transporters just don’t know whether they are going to reach their destinations or not. But Iraq is like that today.
Noirette @25 – “One of the main difficulties I read (about 2 years ago) is that Iraqis are no longer allowed to keep their seeds for re-planting, they have to buy from Monsanto, to qualify for Gvmt. help or bank loans, etc. So, the destruction of traditional agriculture.” There is no government control any longer over what people do. Neither central nor local government is functioning in the way it used to, and certainly not in the way we would expect a government to function. so I doubt the Monsanto rule lasted very long.
“Another big difficulty is, naturally, water. Lack of clean water is usually seen in terms of child death – the UN published a report recently and it is as bad as one could expect. But broken infrastructure (pipes ditches etc) plus disruption of tradition – cooperation, informal water sharing, etc – as well as the previous structure, which ppl have adapted to over the years – can put paid to many a farm. Or most of them.”
As far as I can see from the satellite images, a lot of new wells have been bulldozed. again lack of control. I don’t think traditional relationships have broken down – rather they are the resource which people turn to in the absence of government. The other water problem is that there is much less water in the Tigris and Euphrates than there used to be, because of the dams in Turkey. Where I remember water flowing in the 1980s, there is only dry land today. (The lack of water, by the way, is the main reason for the drying out of the marshes in the south, not the evil Saddam.)
I certainly agree people in Iraq are on the limits of economic survival, after four years of occupation and the constant attacks. and I can’t understand how they survive. However the social structure, like among Palestinians, is very resistant. It is the major factor. And one which the US government (and indeed the Israelis) is quite unable to understand.

Posted by: Alex | May 25 2007 18:38 utc | 26

Looks like a big fight within the administration. Gates/Rice want to retreat to the big bases, Cheney and the local command want more troops.
White House Said to Debate ’08 Cut in Iraq Troops by 50%
Confusing …

Posted by: b | May 26 2007 7:29 utc | 27

Interview with Ali Allawi, former Minister of Finance and Defense on the Interim Iraqi Governing Council,author of The Occupation of Iraq: Winning the War, Losing the Peace
Incoherence of Power
I was very ambivalent about an American invasion, says he, now. “I was on record,” really!

Posted by: Alamet | May 26 2007 14:21 utc | 28