The Cheney administration made an effort to "realign" the Middle East with an Arab front of moderate dictators. They were to deliver an Israel friendly solution on Palestine and a united front against Iran. The effort has faltered.
This was first visible when the Saudis fixed a deal for a unity government between the Abbas’ Fatah and Hamas. With this done in Mekka, I suggested the Saudis were in a bind and had to deliver or lose their cred in the proverbial Arab street.
It is not yet clear how far the Saudis will really go to support the Pals, but the recent steps taken are certainly unfriendly to Cheney’s agenda. As Jim Hoagland reports, Saudi King Abdullah has canceled a state dinner at the White House:
Bandar bin Sultan, the Saudi national security adviser, flew to Washington last week to explain to Bush that April 17 posed a scheduling problem. " ‘It is not convenient’ was the way it was put," says one official.
and if it rains …
Jordan’s King Abdullah, who has spent more time in George W. Bush’s Washington than any other foreign leader, has let the White House know that he can’t make that state visit discussed for September.
The President of the United Arab Emirates had this to say:
Shaikh Khalifa reiterated that the UAE totally rejects the use of its land, air and territorial waters to attack any country. “We have reiterated to our Iranian brothers in a letter delivered recently by the foreign minister that we are not a party to the conflict between Iran and the United States and that we shall never allow the use of our soil for any military, security or intelligence activities against them,” he said.
On the Palestinian issue, where Rice tried to revive the 2002 Arab plan for peace for land with Israeli modifications, i.e. without any Israeli concessions, the Shaikh had equally clear words:
He urged the summit, which opens tomorrow in the Saudi capital, to maintain a solid stance on the issue of the right of return of the Palestinian refugees as contained in the Arab Peace Initiative.
Another snub from the Arab side had come through Egypt a few days earlier, when any help to pressure Darfur was denied.
The Israeli side is not interested in any Cheney admin activity, other than paying their bills, either. The same day Rice was negotiating about useless future Olmert/Abbas meetings, she was snubbed by Olmert when Israeli settlers with official Army protection reoccupied a settlement in the West Bank. Abbas was certainly not impressed either:
Her delegation found the Israelis sour and resistant, prone to finger-jabbing, and the Palestinians just as sullen. Advisers to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas say that once he brusquely interrupted Rice, saying: "You’ve come to me with a list of Israeli demands. Where is your list of our demands for the Israelis?"
Steve Clemons frames these issues as a split in the Bush/Cheney team, with Cheney undermining Rice by influencing Bush. That’s hogwash in my view – I do not see any split there at all – Rice is just part of the team.
But the gang has a huge problem. They have absolutely no soft power left in the Middle East. Not one of the usual dictators is following the orders anymore – not on Israel/Palestine, not on Iran, not on anything – this is unprecedented.
At home, with chaos increasing in Iraq, even proven Washington D.C. whitewashers like Gen. McCaffrey are turning away. Republican Senators did not filibuster the Iraq war bill, leaving the White House alone on the issue. Meanwhile Congressional committees are investigating scandal after scandal and there is more dirt than anyone could reasonably have expected.
So what is the administration to do? Sit back and wait for more rain to pour in Washington and more uncontrolled movement abroad? Or can it start one new initiative that changes the headlines in Washington, the situation in the Middle East and brings back some "Mission Accomplished" glory?