It will take at least another three to five years before the U.S. will retreat from Iraq. The four big bases are mostly finished and staffed and the U.S. elite will not be willing to give up that strategic gain.
But on a longer term, I do not believe that the U.S. will sustain that project because the public will be further alienated by it and because the financial consequences will start to show up in everyday life.
After a retreat from Iraq the financial problems will mostly be solved by the U.S. strongarming the G7 or G8 into a new Plaza Accord, i.e. a massive devaluation of the U.S. Dollar.
But what is going to happen to the "American psyche", its "victory culture", after a retreat from Iraq.
Ira Chernus, a Professor of Religious Studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder, has published his thoughts on this in Asia Times Online and at Tom Dispatch and comes to a quite frightening perspective: After Iraq, the U.S. will turn more nationalistic, militaristic and imperialistic.
Being only a U.S. observer, I have too little real recent experience with the "American mind" – most readers here have more. So let us know your opinion on the chance of this to happen.
Some excerpts from Cernus’ piece:
Remember the "Vietnam syndrome", which made its appearance soon after the actual war ended in defeat. It did restrain the US appetite for military interventions overseas – but only briefly. By the late 1970s, it had already begun to boomerang. Conservatives denounced the syndrome as evidence of a paralyzing, Vietnam-induced surrender to national weakness. Their cries of alarm stimulated broad public support for an endless military buildup and, of course, yet more imperial interventions.
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Ronald Reagan played all these notes skillfully enough to become president of the US. The desire to "cure" the Vietnam syndrome became a springboard to unabashed, militant nationalism and a broad rightward turn in the life of the United States.
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Iraq – both the war and the "syndrome" to come – could easily evoke a similar set of urges: to evade a painful reality and ignore the lessons it should teach the US.
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The ambivalence lurking in the polls suggests that many Americans want it both ways. The war should end quickly, but somehow with victory culture if not still burning brightly, at least flickering, as the birthright Americans demand.
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the US public will be told that Iraq, too, was just an aberration, a well-intentioned war handled with a staggering level of incompetence that simply got out of control. Those who don’t want to repeat the experience, who prefer to try other paths to global security, will be told they are infected with the Iraq syndrome. And the prescription for a cure will inevitably be military buildup, imperial war and, of course, the possibility of both "kicking" the Iraq syndrome and welcoming US troops home in the sort of triumph they so richly deserve.