Some thoughts on the wider circumstances of the Palestinian agreement between Hamas and Fatah as brokered by the Saudis.
The background is a new Middle East in which, thanks to the U.S. war on Iraq, Iran has gained a relative better position than before. But the big winner in this war is not Iran at all.
Iraq with Saddam ruling was a serious impediment to Saudi Arabia. They
were the ones who feared him when he tried to stop Kuwaiti horizontal
drilling into Iraqi oil reservoirs by reincluding them into Iraq.
A neighboring country with a secular and modern atmosphere would
have been a dangerous example for the people under the archaic Wahhabi
rule of the Saud dynasty. Iraq united with Kuwait as a potent oil
producer had enough capacity to threaten the Saudi role of swing
producer within OPEC. That menace is gone and with it the threat to
Saudi hegemony.
Unlike the relative win of Iran, the Saudi win, by now unrivaled oil price control, is absolute.
The first time the Saudis put their new power to a test was a few months
ago when a partial U.S. retreat from Iraq looked possible. Through a consultant’s OpEd in the Washington Post they offered carrots and sticks to Washington.
"Either you stay in Iraq and clean up the mess you have made or we
will really step into that game. We can finance the Sunni resistance to
kick you and your Shia puppets out. Additionally we may cut some oil
production and squeeze your economy. But if you stay in Iraq we might
produce enough oil to lower the prices and squeeze Tehran’s balls
instead."
Bush/Cheney promptly dumped the Baker/Hamilton paper and took the Saudi offer. An additional Saudi demand was for some freedom to act on behalf of the Palestinians.
At the Beirut Summit
in 2002 the Saudis led a coalition of Arab countries that offered
Israel official recognition in a deal for a Palestinian state. That
initiative went nowhere.
But now the Saudis have a better hand and they gave it another try.
To prevent a civil war in Palestine, induced and financed by the U.S.
and Israel, they brokered a peace deal between Hamas and Abbas’ Fatah.
In parallel to the negotiations Israel started meddling near the Al’Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem. A proven way to induce violence and to derail unwanted peace deals. But this time it was not enough to stop the process.
Though Hamas did not cave in to the mystic point of "Israel’s right to exist",
the Palestine "unity government" the U.S. demanded is now in place. The
Saudis, guardians of the Islamic holy sites, brokered and blessed
the deal and invested a lot of political capital into it.
Abbas and Khaled Meshaal, the exiled leader of Hamas, signed the deal in a palace overlooking the Kaaba, Islam’s holiest shrine.
Signing
in sight of the Kaaba is certainly a very important symbol in the Islamic parts of the
world. The Saudis now will have to see this through or lose a lot of
their Islamic street cred.
Palestinan tax revenue which Israel withholds, as well as European aid to Palestine, will now have to be paid to the unity
government. If the Saudi’s do not get this done, their current leading
role in the Sunni Arab world and the Islamic role of the House of Saud
as the protectors of the holy places of Islam will be seriously
damaged.
Helena Cobban and Badger also have some thoughts on this. Helena says the U.S. is hardly in a position to counter the Saudi initiative while Badger cites Arab media doubting Saudi independence from the U.S. in enacting this.
Like Crevald
I think the U.S. is seriously damaged. It has hardly any power left to
negotiate anything in the Middle East. Besides a lunatic attack on Iran
it can do nothing to forestall a total and devastating retreat from
Iraq.
The Saudis will share that perspective. But now they really have to prove their new role. Badger cites an Arab columnist:
[M]easure
of success or failure for the Saudis in this initiative isn’t going to
be the lack of any preference or taking of sides between this
Palestinian faction or that. Rather the test will be whether they do in
fact show preference and take sides on the side of the Palestinians in
their enormous efforts to free themselves from the occupation.
The
Saudis know that the real test for their new position is still out. Now
they are in a bind. If the U.S. and Israel do not respect the brokered
deal by lifting the economic sanctions on Palestine and by taking real
steps towards a Palestinian state, the Saudi oil weapon will have to
come into play again.
Some market volatility is thereby guaranteed.