Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
February 18, 2007
A Campaign Against War On Iran

Today the three major U.S. papers carry stories or op-eds that explain why Iran takes the position it takes and why it is "meddling" in Iraq.

The pieces are not generally positive on Iran, but they paint it as a rational actor that defends its legitimate interests in a neighboring country.

Additionally, even the rightwing Washington Post editors are coming out against an attack on Iran. For the wrong reason of course, but they do.

This is definitely a coordinated campaign.

Three questions:

  • Who launched this?
  • Why does someone feel the need to launch it now?
  • Will this deter Bush/Cheney?

Some excerpts below the fold:

NYT News Analysis: Iran’s Chance: U.S. Troubles in Iraq Create Opening for Regional Shift

In economic terms, Iran has an interest in a stable, Tehran-friendly Iraq. For decades, while Mr. Hussein was in power, Iraq was an economic obstacle for Iran, a wall blocking trading routes and diplomatic ties with its Arab neighbors.

The chaos in Iraq still means that Iran’s trade with Syria has to be routed through Turkey. But Iranian officials say they hope someday to link the railroads of Iran and Syria with Iraq’s, redrawing the economics of the region.


But Tehran’s interests in Iraq cut much deeper than the economic. They range from its ideological desire to spread its influence throughout the Arab world — part of the so-called Shiite revival — to its connection to the people and holy sites of Iraq.

“Iran and Iraq’s national interests are intertwined,” said Farzaneh Roostaee, foreign editor of Shargh, a popular reformist daily in Iran that the government shut down late last year. “Both geographically and religiously, the two countries have many common interests. No matter how much Americans try, they can not separate these two countries from one another. It won’t work.”

WaPo OpEd by Brookings Institution’s Daniel L. Byman: What Tehran Is Really Up To

Iran perceives itself as surrounded. The United States has repeatedly made threats against the Iranian regime, has refused to surrender anti-regime Iranian terrorists found in Iraq, organized international economic pressure on the country, led a diplomatic effort to deny Iran the right to develop nuclear energy and nuclear weapons, and pointedly included military force against Iran as an option after dispatching two aircraft carriers to the Persian Gulf region– hostile steps, in Iranian eyes, that reinforce paranoia.

Tehran does not want the secular and pro-Western Iraq that America dreams of, and it wants to ensure that the U.S. doctrine of preventive regime change is dead. So far, developments in Iraq have worked out in Iran’s favor — indeed, Iran appears to be the one state that is winning this war. Iraq is too weak to pose a military threat to Iran for years and perhaps decades to come. The democratic procedures that the United States imposed on Iraq put in power Shiite leaders who are far friendlier to Tehran than to Washington.


But Iran could easily be even more aggressive in Iraq. Tehran could provide sophisticated weapons to a wider range of Iraqi groups than it reportedly has so far. Iran’s Shiite proxies do at times attack American forces, but their principal targets are Sunni militias. They could kill a lot more Americans than they have. Iran could be encouraging them to convert relatively peaceful parts of Iraq into battlefields similar to the wildest parts of Anbar province.

LAT OpEd by The Nation’s Adam Shatz: Why Iran ‘meddles’ in Iraq

Could it be that Iran’s stake in Iraq is solidly grounded in the same realist principles that drive the behavior of most nations, rather than in "malign intentions" or a desire to export the Islamic revolution?

If Iran wants to see a friendly government established in Iraq, it hardly lacks for reasons. Unlike the United States, Iran was attacked by Iraq, back when Hussein’s regime enjoyed American support as a bulwark against Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini’s revolution. Hundreds of thousands of Iranians died during the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88). When Iraq used poison gas against Iranian troops, the United States uttered not a single protest.


The future Iraqi government, frankly, is likely to bear a stronger resemblance to the Islamic republic than to the liberal democracy the Bush administration publicly championed — or to the "Saddamism without Saddam" scenario that many advocates of the invasion privately preferred. That Iran has acted to bolster the power of its Shiite allies in Iraq — and to arm Shiite militias avenging Sunni attacks on their people and their shrines — may not be to Washington’s liking, but "meddling" doesn’t seem the right word for it.

The WaPo editorial: The Iran Options

Given the debacle of postwar planning in Iraq, there is no reason to trust Mr. Bush with the execution of another war of choice. Someday a future president may decide, in consultation with a future Congress, that the risks of seeking to contain a nuclear-armed Iran are greater than the risks of seeking to degrade or destroy its nuclear capability by force. Most intelligence estimates suggest that such a decision need not be faced in the next two years.

Comments

“Money trumps peace”
~George Bush

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Feb 18 2007 16:46 utc | 1

Ah George, our Delphic oracle.

Posted by: citizen | Feb 18 2007 17:24 utc | 2

Following a Saturday report about the use of US manufactured weapons in the recent terrorist operations in Iran’s southeastern province of Sistan and Balouchestan, a security official provided FNA with a photograph of the said weaponry. These arsenals have been confiscated during a raid on the hideout of a terrorist group known as Jondollah in the provincial capital city of Zahedan on Thursday.
A bomb blast tore through a bus in Zahedan, southeast Iran at 06:10 (2:40 GMT) on Wednesday, killing 12 people and wounding 31 others.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Feb 18 2007 18:38 utc | 3

Who launched this?
Perhaps the big money boys and girls who back the Repugs and run the country (and the world for that matter) from behind the curtain.
Why does someone feel the need to launch it now?
Possibly because the Stennis just steamed into the Persian Gulf theater on Monday and all of the pieces are in place for an attack.
Another burning question:
Do the power brokers who are attacking the case for war in these op-eds/articles know more than we do about whether such an attack is immanent?
My guess is they probably do. They have direct personal connections with many people in the administration including the Pres and Vice Pres. They have whole rooms full of journalists piecing together a picture of what the administration is up to.
Will this deter Bush/Cheney?
Probably not. I think that it is pretty clear that the Bush and Cheney are more concerned about their legacy than they are about the current political environment that is leaning very heavily against a new war. They appear to have convinced themselves that this war will vindicate their position in the end. Good luck with that.
The thought of attacking Iran right now is so insane that it is simply beyond the grasp of we ordinary Americans. It completely flies in the face of the obvious self interest of Americans individually and as a group. The conservatives that I have talked to simply cannot believe that we would do such a thing. Talk of a second war is just us liberals trying to stir up partisan trouble. The Cheney administration has done a good job of keeping the war planning below the CNN threshold. Most people are completely oblivious to even the possibility of a new war. If the bombs do start falling, there are going to be a lot of very surprised Americans.
True insanity.

Posted by: Growth Factor | Feb 20 2007 21:04 utc | 4