Twelve Month?!
In his State of the Union address Bush mentioned Iran five times. He definitely would like to bomb that country and is looking for reasons to do so.
But in the U.S. the press has started to investigate government claims instead of just repeating them. Without media and public support, a decision to bomb Iran based on unproven facts would lead to impeachment.
But there are still some folks in the U.K. press that are available to spin up reasons to bomb Iran.
Con Coughlin, a so called journalist and the UK's Judith Miller equivalent, has several times peddled neo-con lies and MI6 disinformation.
Today he is at it again with a conspiracy piece based on one anonymous source and full of impossible facts. In the Daily Telegraph he writes: N Korea helping Iran with nuclear testing
North Korea is helping Iran to prepare an underground nuclear test similar to the one Pyongyang carried out last year.
Under the terms of a new understanding between the two countries, the North Koreans have agreed to share all the data and information they received from their successful test last October with Teheran's nuclear scientists.
...
A senior European defence official told The Daily Telegraph that North Korea had invited a team of Iranian nuclear scientists to study the results of last October's underground test to assist Teheran's preparations to conduct its own — possibly by the end of this year.
...
As a result, senior western military officials are deeply concerned that the North Koreans' technical superiority will allow the Iranians to accelerate development of their own nuclear weapon.
"The Iranians are working closely with the North Koreans to study the results of last year's North Korean nuclear bomb test," said the European defence official.
"We have identified increased activity at all of Iran's nuclear facilities since the turn of the year," he said.
"All the indications are that the Iranians are working hard to prepare for their own underground nuclear test."
...
Intelligence estimates vary about how long it could take Teheran to produce a nuclear warhead. But defence officials monitoring the growing co-operation between North Korea and Iran believe the Iranians could be in a position to test fire a low-grade device — less than half a kiloton — within 12 months.
The precise location of the Iranian test site is unknown, but is likely to be located in a mountainous region where it is difficult for spy satellites to pick up any unusual activity.
Conspiracy Coughlin has another piece to the accompany the above, The ominous relationship between North Korea and Iran, and he has his editors chipping in with some ridiculous musing of their own: Strange bedfellows – but dangerous none the less
Hmm - so where to start?
North Korea has tested a plutonium bomb. The plutonium was extracted from spend nuclear fuel rods that had previously been used in a nuclear reactor. This after North Korea left the Non-Proliferation-Treaty and IAEA inspectors had left the country.
Iran does not even have the means yet to make nuclear fuel to fill a reactor. It does not have a working reactor either. It thereby does not have any spend fuel rods that could provide plutonium. Its nuclear installations are under IAEA supervision.
To enrich enough Uranium for nuclear fuel, to build a reactor, to "bread" the fuel and to extract plutonium and to prepare a bomb 8-10 years of unhindered, unsupervised nuclear engineering would be needed. It also would have to happen without any of the problems that usually occur in such processes.
But Iran is, according to Coughlin's source, suspected to do a test within 12 month?
A "low grade device - less than half a kiloton" would be much more difficult to make than a multi-kiloton device. It took the U.S. years of experimenting and tests to be able to make small devices. The North Korean test was so small because it was dud, i.e. the test FAILED.
As for satellites and "mountainious regions" - here is something for Mr. Coughlin to learn. Satellites do indeed fly ABOVE the earth and look DOWN. They see things on the surface of mountains just as well as on the surface of a flat desert.
But some basic science and fact checking is not needed for fanatic ideologists who want to start another mayhem in the Middle East. Be they at the AEI or the Daily Telegraph.
Posted by b on January 24, 2007 at 11:16 UTC | Permalink
Chuck, I offer you this quote from out illustrious President:
"Free nations don't develop weapons of mass destruction."
Posted by: Rowan | Jan 24 2007 15:45 utc | 2
Bernhard,
Gingrinch (oops, I mean Gingrich) is doing his part.
Israel faces nuclear Holocaust warns Gingrich
Posted by: Rick | Jan 24 2007 16:15 utc | 3
Iranians Want Capacity to Enrich Uranium But Accept NPT Rules Against Developing Nuclear Weapons
An in-depth survey of public opinion in Iran reveals that most Iranians want their country to have the capacity to enrich uranium for nuclear energy, but a majority also agrees that Iran should comply with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty which forbids Iran from developing nuclear weapons. A parallel poll in the United States shows that a majority of Americans are ready to accept a deal allowing Iran to engage in limited enrichment if it also agrees to give UN inspectors full access to ensure Iran is not developing nuclear weapons.
...
The concurrent surveys of public opinion in Iran and the United States were conducted by WorldPublicOpinion.org in partnership with Search for Common Ground. Steven Kull, who directed the surveys, comments, “The polls show that majorities in both countries are deeply suspicious of each other, but nonetheless agree on a wide range of issues.”Iranians and Americans support international non-proliferation rules as well as a stronger United Nations and reject Osama bin Laden. Majorities or pluralities favor a variety of steps to improve U.S.-Iranian relations and neither side believes conflict between Islam and the West is inevitable.
The poll of the Iranian public was unprecedented in scope. The questionnaire included 134 substantive questions on a wide range of international issues, administered in face-to-face interviews in rural and as well as urban areas. Both the Iranian and U.S. surveys were probability-based national samples of 1,000 respondents or more.
...
@Rowan #2 Does the Codpiece proposition go the other way. that is, "nations which develope WMD are not free"?
Hmmn, perhaps, maybe -- I'll have to check with our local commisar.
Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Jan 24 2007 23:13 utc | 5
@Chuck Cliff:
Yes, it does. Basic rules of logic. "If A then B" is equivalent to "If (the negation of B) then (the negation of B)". It's called modus tollens, and you can look it up in any college-level textbook on logic.
Let A be "Nation X is free" and B be "Nation X does not develop WMDs". Bush is asserting that if A then B. The negation of B is "Nation X does develop WMDs" and the negation of A is "Nation X is not free". Therefore, if Bush's assertion is true, then If Nation X develops WMDs, then Nation X is not free. America develops WMDs. Therefore, according to Bush, America is not free.
Posted by: The Truth Gets Vicious When You Corner It | Jan 24 2007 23:23 utc | 6
Nice coincidence, twelve months is what that great Iranian revolutionary leader who exudes experience and wisdom far beyond his 31 years believes will take to topple the Iranian regime, tops:
...
If the West launches a military attack on Iran , “The top brass will flee immediately. People will come out onto the streets protesting, why are we being bombed? Many of the regime’s mid-level officials will shave their beards, don ties and join the (civilians) on the streets.”
(snip)
Fakhr-Avar believes the revolution can be accomplished within ten months to a year. He does not ask for much from the Americans: “What we really need is the tools,” he says. “Cell phones, computers, cameras, publication ability. This is the funding we need for our (revolutionary) activities, to coordinate within Iran and outside.”
Posted by: Alamet | Jan 25 2007 0:30 utc | 7
“The top brass will flee immediately. People will come out onto the streets protesting, why are we being bombed? Many of the regime’s mid-level officials will shave their beards, don ties and join the (civilians) on the streets.”
Jesus fucking christ these people are insipid morons who won't let this idiocy die. Saturation bombing never has, and almost certainly never will, force "the people" to start a revolution. Why? BECAUSE THEY'RE GETTING BOMBED! "Gee, should we go and protest our government, or should we maybe fight the people who are bombing us?" "I have a brilliant idea! Let's gather thousands of people in major public spaces as airplanes are flying above us dropping bombs. That'll totally work!"
totally worked in Nazi Germany. Korea. Vietnam. Iraq. Lebanon.
buncha fucking idiots. How this zombie lie remains a cornerstone of military planning is beyond me.
(yes, I know it's a propaganda troll, but I remain struck by how common this belief that bombing---->revolution remains.)
Posted by: Rowan | Jan 25 2007 3:52 utc | 9
The comments to this entry are closed.
Jeeze, I just spent 15 minutes and lost it all because I hit the wrong key.
Yech!
The main thing I wanted to say is that, according to Steve Clemons the first 50 of the 3000 centrifuges of the Iranian Doomsday Centrifuge Cascade blew up when they tried to bring them online.
The thing is, if you are insane and want to make atomic bombs, you want plutonium, the Metal of Death, and for that you need a heavy water reactor.
Hell, all this noise about North Korea and their bomb was either a dud or they skipped to third generation nuke tech in one hop -- which is unlikely.
I conclude with my signature:
"All the Bombs are in the Hands of Terrorists"
Posted by: Chuck Cliff | Jan 24 2007 15:29 utc | 1