Sit-In – Moon of Alabama

December 1, 2006

Sit-In

In Lebanon a big sit-in has started. Some 800,000 to 1,000,000 people, a quarter of the total population, came to today’s initial demonstration and they will set up camps in the street and many will stay there until the government steps down.

This is about real democracy.

Some 60 to 70% of the Lebanese population are Muslim. But the parliament system is based on ethnic and religious shares. Muslims are only allowed 50% of the parliament seats. The Muslim Lebanese are primarily Shia, but the Shia only get 27 of the 128 total seats. A Shia vote only counts a third of other votes.

This system of quotas and disfranchisement, a relict of French colonial rule, reaches into all government functions. If you want a job at the Univerisity it is not enough to be the most qualified person. If the quota for your religious association is already filled you are out of luck. Somebody from another sect will get the position.

Naturally in such a political system, the underrepresented majority gets the least spoils from the state. Over the years the overrepresented minorities systematically evolve into social winners while the majority loses and ends up poor.

Hizbullah’s power and support lies in its ability to deliver those social service to the poor majority that the government does not deliver.

A smart long term strategy to undermine Hizbullah’s power is to give the people their fair share of the vote. Through the mechanisms of a real democracy they then could reach the appropriate share of govenment attention. Hizbullah’s social services would not be needed anymore and over time the basis of their power would erode.

The Taif agreement of 1989 whcih ended the Lebanese civil war stated as one point that Syria should leave Lebanon. It also demanded to abolish the system of political sectarianism and parliament quotas.

U.S. sanctions against Syria were implemented because Syria’s presence in Lebanon was "inconsistent with the spirit of the 1989 Taif Accords." I am still waiting for U.S. sanctions against the current Lebanese parliament and government for being "inconsistent with the spirit of the 1989 Taif Accords."

Posted by b on December 1, 2006 at 18:47 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Anecdotes from a banana republic
has a good post from the ground in Lebanon:
Yuppy brawls, surprises & the arms race
blog

Posted by: Noirette | Dec 1 2006 19:35 utc | 1

WHAT A DISASTER… Good work on Israel’s part building this MaleMuslim bastard into a national hero…Iran & the Shias on the march…Guaranteed to galvanize the Saudis…Or is Israel getting what it wants – another potential Civil War in Lebanon & maximize anti-Iranian forces in the West….
Demonstrations were spontaneous in the 60’s. Now the elite has learned how to manipulate the masses to “demonstrate” when various factions of elites need it to help enact their agendas. Masses just one more finger on the hand of elite…recall Soros working so hard to identify grass-roots leadership in Eastern Eur. & former Soviet Republics, so he could control them. He sent them off to be taught how to organize & lead mass demonstations, that he needed to help bring down governments that were antithetical to his power & resource grabs. “real democracy” – not this way, not now. There is nobody as anti-democratic as MaleMuslims, unless it’s the xUS elites…

Posted by: jj | Dec 1 2006 20:12 utc | 2

From the post Noirette suggests @1:

…
Nine men from the Lebanese Forces security apparatus were arrested yesterday by the army intelligence branch. They were holding target practice up in Kesrouan and were armed with “M16 and AKF rifles, MT5 riflescopes, and a number of GLOCK pistols […] in addition to very sophisticated communication devices.” They also found a map of the Rabieh area — home to Michel Aoun– in one of the three SUVs used by the gunmen (which all had identical license plates), as well as a portrait of a “prominent Lebanese political figure” and a mannequin placed in the front seat of the vehicle. Al-Akhbar reports that the portait was of Michel Aoun whose house was also marked on the map.
“Six of the detainees confessed that before the LF [Lebanese Forces] was disbanded in 1994, they used be part of the “El SADEM” force that was made up back then of more than forty fighters, thirty of which were recruited back by the LF about one year ago. Most of them lived abroad, and one of them is currently the head of Samir Geagea’s security detail in ‘Al Arz’.”
…

That is Christian v.s. Christian, btw. A sign of spiraling fragmentation…

Posted by: Alamet | Dec 2 2006 0:10 utc | 3

It’s interesting that the NY Times coverage of the protest delicately avoids mention of Shiite disenfranchisement or sectarian quotas as sources of Shiite grievance.

Posted by: Lexington | Dec 2 2006 1:28 utc | 4

@Lexington – Did you expect the Prawda to write about the real reasons of this? Note that the very last sentence of the Prawda story is this one:

Others chanted, “Ahmed Fatfat is a Jew,” referring to the minister of sports and youth, who had been acting interior minister.

What some strawmen “others” chanted is more important than this stupid “one wo/men one vote” they are fighting for.

Posted by: b | Dec 2 2006 5:42 utc | 5

The WaPo story doesn’t mention any voting issue either …

Posted by: b | Dec 2 2006 6:57 utc | 6

In case one wonders why the Lebanese government is said to be corrupt …
Lebanese billionaire is drawn into BAE arms deal inquiry as ‘second middleman for Saudis’

Another billionaire Saudi middleman was named last night in the Serious Fraud Office’s controversial Saudi arms deal inquiry, according to potential witnesses. The SFO is seeking information about any Swiss bank accounts belonging to Mohammad Safadi, a Lebanese politician who has acted for relatives of Prince Sultan, crown prince of Saudi Arabia.
Mr Safadi would not comment last night at his office in Beirut, where he holds the office of public works minister and also controls the Safadi Group. His property firms have received contracts from the British arms company BAE and have interests in office blocks in London worth £120m.
…
Neither Mr Safadi nor Mr Said are themselves targets of the SFO’s corruption inquiry. But investigators want access to bank accounts to see if BAE has channelled secret funds through them to Saudi government officials. This might be a criminal offence by BAE executives.
…
The SFO inquiry, which began when the Guardian obtained documents in 2003 suggesting BAE was running a £60m slush fund to bribe Saudi generals, has expanded to cover secret BAE payments in half a dozen countries, alleged to total more than £1bn.
One potential witness who has been interviewed by the SFO told the Guardian: “I was asked by them about Mr Safadi’s role. I told them that his UK firm, Jones Consultants, had paid bills for Prince Turki bin Nasser, head of the Saudi air force.”

Posted by: b | Dec 2 2006 7:35 utc | 7

Claims that the Saudis had given Tony Blair a 10-day ultimatum to drop the police probe were not being confirmed last night from any quarter. The Saudi embassy said the claims were “a repackaged old story”.
ha!

Posted by: annie | Dec 2 2006 7:43 utc | 8

the NYT & WaPo stories demonstrate the historical discomfort and willful mind-block that Western media and intelligentia have with honoring the moral expression of “others”
they look for the worst in “others”, the perversions, the cruelty in “others”, the intolerant, the inhuman … But the morality of “others” is generally invisible to them.
its called moral superiority.
the Shiites of Lebanon are historically by far the most dis-enfranchhised group in Lebanon. And they took it for hundreds and hundreds of years with remarkable grace & serenity. Until forced by circumstances created by others to defend their very survival. As a result of which they are no longer the invisible people of Lebanon.
if the situation were reversed and we had a historically disenfrachised Christian group peacefully demonstrating to reform a political system in which they remain grossly under-represented in contrast to favored Muslim representation, we can surely expect the Western media to throw the full weight of moral-superiority in their favor with barely any stone left unturned.
The good news on this issue is that many Lebanese Christians, namely those led by General Micheal Aoun, are not blinded by such moral-superiority.

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 2 2006 8:30 utc | 9

if the situation were reversed
thank you whoever you are

Posted by: annie | Dec 2 2006 8:49 utc | 10

actually, that was me @9

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Dec 2 2006 8:53 utc | 11

you are cool

Posted by: annie | Dec 2 2006 9:16 utc | 12

@b:

Did you expect the Prawda to write about the real reasons of this? Note that the very last sentence of the Prawda story is this one:
Others chanted, “Ahmed Fatfat is a Jew,” referring to the minister of sports and youth, who had been acting interior minister.
What some strawmen “others” chanted is more important than this stupid “one wo/men one vote” they are fighting for.

As always your point is well taken -I certainly wasn’t expressing surprise that Times missed the main point of the protests, just thought it was significant (and all too typical) that they did.
I noticed that last sentence too. There’s no question that the American establishment has some huge blinders on, which is one of the reasons I think the United States’ much hyped status as the world’s “lone superpower” is vastly oversold. American power is already in eclipse, for those with eyes to see. Of course, not many people accurately read the decline of the Roman (or Spanish, or British) empire when it was actually occuring either.
These things are always so much more obvious in retrospect.

Posted by: Lexington | Dec 2 2006 9:35 utc | 13

Interesting analysis of the significance of the events in Beirut for Lebanon, the Arab world, and the struggle for power in the Middle East generally, by Rami Khouri:
A Historic and Frightening Moment in Beirut

Posted by: Bea | Dec 2 2006 15:00 utc | 14

Actually, Lexington,
When people start thumping their chests about what a great empire they have, as opposed to quietly acquiring power, they’re on the downward slope.
For instance Britain in the 1890s just before the Boer War.

Posted by: sm | Dec 2 2006 16:02 utc | 15

Reminds me of when the Spanish people took to the streets en masse in 2004 (some estimates at the time said 25% of the population) to rid themselves of that creep Aznar.
It worked too.

Posted by: Dismal Science | Dec 2 2006 16:43 utc | 16

@16
this should hopefully work too.
the peaceful demonstrations may give PM Siniora enough cover to make some concessions to the Shia/Hezbollah. He has worked very well with Hezbollah in the past but he is now caught between a rock & a hard place.
The “international community” including aid donors as well as Sunni interests such as the Saudis would like him to clamp down on Hezbollah and there may also be demands that he strictly enforce UN resolution 1701 on Hezbollah, most likely as a pre-condition for providing rebuilding aid. He is also under pressure from his own political coalition to keep Hezbollah under check.
The Hariri murder-tribunal will be interesting. Theres already more than enough hype surrounding it.

Posted by: Anonymous | Dec 2 2006 17:29 utc | 17

Somewhere in the Green Zone, Maliki is wetting his pants, because he knows Sadr is looking carefully to what’s happening in Lebanon and is taking note. In case this doesn’t end in a bloodbath of massacred Shia, I’d expect to see this happening on a grander scale in Iraq in a few weeks/months.

Posted by: Clueless Joe | Dec 2 2006 18:01 utc | 18

@Clueless Joe – In case this doesn’t end in a bloodbath of massacred Shia, I’d expect to see this happening on a grander scale in Iraq in a few weeks/months.
The issue is not Shia/Sunni here – as Rami Khouri, linked by bea in 14, explains – it is the first time the Middle East sees a non-violent mass challenge of goverment.
Maliki may piss his pants, but the guys that are really frightend by this are sitting Kairo, Rihad and Amman.

Posted by: b | Dec 2 2006 20:07 utc | 19

b- if you had the time, it would be really interesting to look back over the year (and/or previous ones, by topic, maybe) and see how many times you noted things that were not covered in the major U.S. media outlets.
Just a thought.

Posted by: fauxreal | Dec 2 2006 23:04 utc | 20

Somewhere in the Green Zone, Maliki is wetting his pants,
it’s pretty hard to convince civilians to trust your government when they are complicit in the slaughter. the power of the masses, if it can be corralled in iraq, is really their only hope. the last thing the PTB want is a real democracy in either iraq. george can throw a coup whenever he feels like it but the people can’t? where’s that at?

Posted by: annie | Dec 2 2006 23:17 utc | 21

b an Lexington :
Back when I read the NYTimes I used always to read the last sentence of all their “stories”. It always holds a summary of the prejudicial framework in which the article was written or the last sniff of dismissal of all that has gone before.

Posted by: John Francis Lee | Dec 3 2006 3:07 utc | 22

WaPo’s Anthony Sahid manages to write a long Page 1 piece about Lebanon and the only explaining thing in the whole piece is “Shiites have historically been disenfranchised” doen in paragraph 20 or so. Not one mention of how this disenfranchise instants itself, the Taif accords or other reasons. Do they call this journalism?

Posted by: b | Dec 3 2006 8:01 utc | 23

b- wrote:
it is the first time the Middle East sees a non-violent mass challenge of goverment.
Ummm…do you by any chance remember the overthrow/fall of Shah of Iran?

Posted by: jj | Dec 3 2006 8:41 utc | 24

Update on the situation in Lebanon. More groups (including Christians) are joining the demonstrators.

Posted by: Bea | Dec 4 2006 3:19 utc | 25

‘Lebanese Muslims outnumber Christians’

Beirut – Lebanon’s political system, which is once again in crisis, aims to share power equally between Christians and Muslims, but a survey published on Monday shows that Christians form only 35 percent of the population.
Private statistician Youssef al-Duweihi, a Maronite Christian, said his figures were based on identity registration records and electoral rolls throughout the country.
“This is scientific, not political,” he told Reuters by telephone from his north Lebanon home. “I want to tell the Lebanese this is Lebanon and if there is a problem, resolve it.”
According to his survey, published in the independent an-Nahar newspaper, Lebanon has 4,855-million people, of whom just over 35 percent are Christian, 29 percent Shi’a Muslim, 29 percent Sunni Muslim and 5 percent Druze.
…
The Taif agreement which ended the 1975-90 civil war modified the complex religious power-sharing system, set up at the birth of modern Lebanon in 1943. Taif gave Muslims and Christians equal representation in parliament instead of the 6 to 5 advantage Christians had enjoyed previously.
It stipulated that the president should remain a Maronite, the prime minister a Sunni and the parliament speaker a Shi’a, while calling for the eventual abolition of the system that distributes state posts among Lebanon’s 17 recognised sects.
…
Abdo Saad, the director of the Beirut Centre for Research and Information, said Duweihi’s results appeared “reasonable”, but added that he did not know what methodology he had used.
Saad said he had had access to Interior Ministry figures in 2000, which showed Christians made up about 33 percent of the population, Shi’as 31,5 percent and Sunnis about 30 percent.

Posted by: b | Dec 4 2006 10:12 utc | 26

Will Rupert Murdoch give Siniora a job to tide him over the way he did to Aznar (and is going to do for Bliar)?

Posted by: Dismal Science | Dec 4 2006 13:42 utc | 27

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