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November 6, 2006
WB: The Idiocracy Vote ++

Billmon:

III. The Really Idiocratic Vote

II. Words to Live By

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But if there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years, it’s never to misunderestimate the power of electoral inertia, or the efficiency and effectiveness of the Republican machine. Some of the more ambitious scenarios — of a 40 or 50 seat Democratic wave in the House, or a Democratic Senate — may, I repeat may, be slipping away.

I. The Idiocracy Vote

Posted by b on November 6, 2006 at 05:16 UTC | Permalink
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Probability theory would maintain that the Dems will win a majority in the House. There are over 60 races with incumbent Repubs that are within the margin of error. The Repubs would have to win over 75% of those races to keep the House. That’s a tough road that even a Rovian 72 hr manipulation cannot climb with a herculean effort.
Of note is the large percentage of early voters compared to 2004 and the Dems improving on their 2004 percentage. The USA Today/Gallup poll today points out that around 50-60% of the voters made up their mind over a month ago in the senate races they polled. Not very many soft voters left.
The senate is truly a dog fight and unless the tsunami arrives it may not sweep out the Repubs.

Posted by: ab initio | Nov 6 2006 6:29 utc | 1

Abu Gharib? Feh. The newest Dark Side: telemarketing abuse. The National Republican Congressional Committee has launched a $2.1 million campaign calling individuals, including those on the Federal Do-Not-Call Registry, with automated telephone messages scripted to sound as if they are coming from the Democratic candidate up for election, in the hopes of driving away support come Tuesday’s elections. “Hello. I’m calling with information about [Democratic candidate],” the recording begins, and then pauses for the traditional hang-up. If the recipient does indeed hang up, they then receive repeated phone calls back. This manner of scripting violates 47 CFR 64.1200(b)(1), which requires that “the identity of the business, individual, or other entity that is responsible for initiating the call” be “state[d] clearly” “at the beginning of the message.” The New Hampshire Attorney General got them to stop calling those on the Do-Not-Call Registry, at least.(In their best interests, perhaps, due to the $5,000 fine per call potentially racking up hefty fines.) This is going on at the very least in the Pennsylvania 6th the Connecticut 4th, the North Carolina 11th,, the New Hampshire 2nd, and nationwide.
robocalls for de-mock-crazy!

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 6 2006 7:32 utc | 2

This poll write-up is almost six months old but strikes at the core of what Billmon is saying…
Bush Losing Core Supporters

WASHINGTON, May 11 – President Bush appears to be losing support among a key group of voters who had hitherto stood firmly with the president even as his poll numbers among other groups fell dramatically.
A new Gallup poll shows that, for the first time, Bush’s approval rating has fallen below 50% among total fucking morons, and now stands at 44%. This represents a dramatic drop compared to a poll taken just last December, when 62% of total fucking morons expressed support for the president and his policies…

Posted by: sabeke | Nov 6 2006 13:11 utc | 3

The Republicans are going after their base.
The Democrats are not. The base in both parties can be energized. Rove knows this and works the far right very effectively. The Democratic party abandons their base.
In Pa. we have a Democratic Senate Candidate who will probably win. In our district we have a congressional candidate who might lose.
Both candidates are pro-war and both candidates support the Military Commissions Act. The Congressional candidate worked at the detention centers at Abu Ghraib and he would have voted for
the MCA.
Yesterday, the Senate candidate, Bob Casey, ran an ad that stated “we have to kill the terrorists over there so we don’t have to fight them over here.” That ad was meant to appeal to the Republican base.
Bob Casey will probably win. He will win because we are afraid of Rick Santorum.
Bob Casey supported Judges Alito and Roberts, judges we are depending on to overturn the habeus corpus provision of the Military Commissions Act.
He is pretty much in agreement with Rick Santorum on about 70% of the issues and
100% in agreement on the war, the abolition of habeus corpus and torture.
I cannot support the abolition of habeus corpus and it’s sheer lunacy to allow Bush to define torture so I cannot vote for either of these candidates.
We are working hard for local candidates and have done some work for congressional candidates outside our district that have reasonable opinions on the war and do not support the MCA.
Any political candidate who either voted for or supports the Military Commissions Act and who wins office will, in January, place their hands on the bible and swear to uphold the consitution. That
oath will be a lie.
We get the government we deserve.

Posted by: jaydee | Nov 6 2006 13:34 utc | 4

Oh dear, Mark Ames just wrote what’s becoming so painfully obvious…
If the Republicans hold on to both houses of Congress, then my challenger(s) must sign a statement confessing that America’s experiment with democracy has failed. That America’s democracy can no longer be excused as “imperfect,” but rather, as your public confession will stress, democracy is the root of America’s problem. Your solution? You pledge to support the peaceful transfer of power to a junta, which will work to “restore order.” But it can’t be a military junta, because the ugly truth is that most Americans would eagerly support a military junta. Hell, they’ve been trying to vote for the closest equivalent to a military junta for decades now; even the “liberal hawks” love the idea of a military junta. So that’s not punishment, folks. No, the junta you, the bet-loser, must argue for is one composed of the American equivalent to Plato’s “philosopher-kings”: a feeble cabal of university academics and intellectuals drawn entirely from New England and California.
One can dream…
Americans are pissed off about Iraq not because they were lied to, and not because America invaded and slaughtered tens or hundreds of thousands of people, or even because thousands of US soldiers have been killed and maimed there. No, what Americans can’t stand is the bummer story that keeps seeping out of there. That’s inexcusable.
What will happen if the Democrats have the power to hold hearings? They’ll expose not only the Republicans for the half-baked fascists that they are, but they’ll shame the 55% of the country that’s congenitally disposed to them, revealing them for the Vichy collaborators and fools that they are.
As far as I’m concerned, I’d say that if the GOP keeps both houses, then the US people at large must be put to sleep, like some rabid dog. There’s a sizable minority that deserves to live, but not more than that.
Of course, that’s not US-bashing. If for instance the French end up with a Sarkozy – Le Pen duel for their presidential elections, the same should apply to them.

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Nov 6 2006 15:11 utc | 5

Despite my comments I’m cautiously optimistic
that the Democrats will take Congress, maybe not by as much as we’ve been led to believe…and then again there could be a tsunami.
As Studs Terkel has so wisely said: hope dies last.

Posted by: jaydee | Nov 6 2006 15:41 utc | 6

The newest poll results by CNN today show a different picture, with Democrats well in the lead by 58 – 38 on a generic ballot of likely voters.

Posted by: Ensley | Nov 6 2006 17:02 utc | 7

We , fat cats, or pigs in Animal Farm etc. all live in a fantasy world and it is not in our heads but it is real, as real as the red blood of Iraqis drain into the sewerage system we bombed and rebuilt, sorry, repainted.
Your average “Joe” thinks taxes, social security and unless Joe has a blood relative in Iraq then they couldn’t give a flying fuck about how things are going on in Iraq.
I often wonder how Orwell would have been treated if he lived today and shared his prophetic thoughts.

Posted by: Cloned Poster | Nov 6 2006 17:43 utc | 8

Billmon,
Thank you for the tasty reading over the weekend. Hang in there.

Posted by: vachon | Nov 6 2006 18:07 utc | 9

There’s a large amount of evidence that (A) Some majority of people do not like the Rethugs/Where we are headed/The War/The Corruption/The Peevish Dullard’s smirking faux down-home act/The Orwellian doublespeak which passes for Normalcy/ etc.; (B) The Rethugs will lose some number of seats in the House and Senate; (C) If the Totalitarian Party manages to keep slim leads in both houses, then I’m headed to the Goethe Institute to put a final shine on my German, and make concrete plans to leave the country.
We live in Hope. And, Nations get the leaders they deserve.

Posted by: Austin Cooper | Nov 6 2006 18:45 utc | 10

my sentiments are if the gop claims both houses that they do it grandios so that any remaining doubter that our system of voting is corrupt is laughed at.
of course this won’t happen.
as long as republicans show at the polls their votes will turn into votes for the gop, no matter which button they push. the fix is already in. of this i am certain.
i am also almost equally certain the dems won’t call foul as they don’t want to be viewed as sore losers. again and again. when will they ever learn? courage mates, is that too much to expect? yes
i’d like a showdown w/the world as our witness. flush them out. if they are going to steal from us make them do it w/out our complicity. why live in a secret fascist country when it is all too transparent to anyone w/open eyes. pull the sheath of secrecy away and uncover the emperor w/no clothes. he’d still be the emporer, we’d still be the subjects but at least the chorus singing the background durge would be more appropriate.

Posted by: annie | Nov 6 2006 19:08 utc | 11

There is a scenario that keeps running through my mind that if the infernal machines are so hackable, why can’t they be hacked in the other direction. I see the election as the last few minutes in a close basketball game with both sides scoring until the clock runs out. Not that this will happen. Just another indication of where our “democracy” is now.
“i am also almost equally certain the dems won’t call foul as they don’t want to be viewed as sore losers. again and again.”
But they’re not losing annie. Their pockets are full too and they’re not taking any of the heat.

Posted by: beq | Nov 6 2006 19:24 utc | 12

yeah beq, you’re right on the full pockets. i just meant in terms of the vote. loosing the vote.

Posted by: annie | Nov 6 2006 19:31 utc | 13

Everyone in the political blogosphere is yammering about the ‘late Republican surge in the polls’.
Bullshit.
There’s no goddam ‘late Republican surge’. Are you kidding me? What, a completely predictable verdict on Saddam Hussein comes down, and suddenly, every conservative Jesus-fellater with a voter registration card in his or her pocket just forgets about Mark Foley and his page boys? And Ted Haggard made no impact at all?
To use a particularly apt crudity — blow me.
These aren’t polls. This is Karl Rove’s disinfo machine, blowing smoke, to cover the already programmed electronic jiggery that will, miraculously, result in Republicans emerging victorious against all predictions.
Except, of course, if they actually did it ‘against all predictions’, people might… I don’t know… send him nasty emails, or something (we for damn sure won’t do anything else about it) and he doesn’t want any nasty emails, so… smoke. “Suddenly, the races are tightening.” All this, to prep us for yet another election in which, in defiance of every prediction, the Republicans manage to pull out yet another all but impossible victory, by, you know, 1 – 3% of the vote.
I’ve been trying to get some information on which states rely mostly or entirely on electronic voting machines, and which still use paper ballots. My suspicion is, the highly contested states are all infected by electronic voting machines, while the ‘safe’ states (for either party) are still using paper. But that’s just a hunch. I’ll try to pin it down more.
In the meantime, I personally don’t believe for a second that ‘the races are tightening’… but I do believe, when the smoke clears on Wednesday, we’ll be looking at a TV full of grinning pricks chortling some variation on “praise Jesus, the party of God and decency and true Americanism has triumphed again, by the skin of our teeth!”
And then, what are we going to do about it?

Posted by: Handsome | Nov 6 2006 19:39 utc | 14

File under fwiw: 12 ways you can safeguard the vote

We recommend two nationwide networks where you can report problems. One is 1-866-OUR-VOTE (1-866-687-8683), which will have volunteer lawyers in 15 locations standing by to provide assistance. The other is 1-866 My Vote-1 (1-866-698-6831), which will record your problem by voicemail, then forward your call to your local board of elections. Both will enter the information you provide into a database to use to support challenges to problem elections now and demands for reform in the future.

and other stuff.

Posted by: beq | Nov 6 2006 19:54 utc | 15

got yer back, handsome.
more

No citizen should be turned away without an election protection monitor documenting it. No monitor should be turned away without full documentation and a call to the police. No ballot should be trashed without sworn affidavits as to why. No recount should be conducted without total public scrutiny.
In all cases, we ask anyone involved to send a report to democracy@freepress.org, with at least your publishable e-mail address included.

Posted by: beq | Nov 6 2006 20:18 utc | 16

Whichever band of assholes ‘wins’ more people are gonna die in Iraq next year than died this year, amerikans will still be dying in droves for want of affordable healthcare and their children will be pushed through an education system designed to satisfy the needs of teachers, administrators, politicians and taxpayers, in fact everybody except the students themselves and the festering toxic swamp that amerika has become will increase it’s 25% contribution to global warming.
So why the passion about which side ‘wins’? Apart from any junior level dem hacks who may be hanging around MoA, this election will not benefit anyone or anything that moa-ites know and love. The reverse in fact as it will set back the already slim chance of any real change to amerika’s political structure.
But I may as well be talking to the fucking cat as try and speak through the decades of brains washed in bullshit.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Nov 6 2006 20:24 utc | 17

nevermind.

Posted by: beq | Nov 6 2006 20:41 utc | 18

Handsome, my sentiments precisely. But you must be smoking something yrself if you think the smoke will clear on Wed. Tues. is the last day for action, Wed. is the day to rev up the smoke machines to obscure & otherwise rationalize that action.
Even if the JackAss Party prevails, no democrats are allowed to run on it anyway, minus a few already entrenched at the margins. There are 2 parties – the Destroy America Party & the Destroy America Faster Party. See Casey, Harry Ford, Barack O’bomination…

Posted by: jj | Nov 6 2006 20:43 utc | 19

“Thus, some voters apparently feel an obligation or desire to vote even when they have no basis for choosing a candidate and are drawn to the first name they read.”
Here in Texas, the paperless electronic voting machine listed the Republican’s name first in every race. Voting for a Democrat required an extra click to move the cursor one space down. Multiply that by 20 or 30 races and that’s a fair amount of clicking.
I asked a poll worker about the ordering and she said she thought the Republicans won a coin-toss to get the coveted first position.
With the electronic voting machines – which I detest, BTW – it seems that it would be trivial to randomize the order of the names.

Posted by: Kevin | Nov 7 2006 14:17 utc | 20

Its for this reason that California mandates the randomization of candidate orders, and avoids using the same random order everywhere.
That way, there’s a bias towards the first name, but nobody actually gets an electoral advantage as a result.

Posted by: silence | Nov 7 2006 18:00 utc | 21

@Debs is dead #17
This MOA’er has to agree;been saying that for years…
One party, the elite party. Watch em vote themselves a few more holidays and yet another pay raise after the dust settles from the mid terms.
The New Democrats, hahahaha

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 8 2006 5:29 utc | 22

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