Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 01, 2006

WB: Contingency Planning

Billmon:

If and when the time comes, I've no doubt the Secretary and his crack squad of commando surrogates will be ready to lay down a withering barrage of talking points and text messages, followed by a blitzkrieg assault on green rooms from Washington to Manhattan.

Contingency Planning

Posted by b on November 1, 2006 at 6:31 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Contingency Planning?

You bet...

Fire at Fort Meade that burned counter-intelligence records...

You better, you better you bet..

With apologies to Pete Townsend...

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 1 2006 7:46 utc | 1

I am sure there are no plans for this contingency
Cockburn:

Sunni insurgents have cut the roads linking the city to the rest of Iraq. The country is being partitioned as militiamen fight bloody battles for control of towns and villages north and south of the capital.
...
Well-armed Sunni tribes now largely surround Baghdad and are fighting Shia militias to complete the encirclement.

The Sunni insurgents seem to be following a plan to control all the approaches to Baghdad. They have long held the highway leading west to the Jordanian border and east into Diyala province. Now they seem to be systematically taking over routes leading north and south.
...
In some isolated neighbourhoods in Baghdad, food shortages are becoming severe. Shops are open for only a few hours a day. "People have been living off water melon and bread for the past few weeks," said one Iraqi from the capital.

Posted by: b | Nov 1 2006 8:17 utc | 2

Maybe they can't take the city, CJ, but I wouldn't want to be trying to utilise those supply lines right about now. Probably not a great idea to play attrition games with people who have nowhere else to go.

Posted by: Monolycus | Nov 1 2006 8:50 utc | 3

looks like an attempt to blockade Shia Baghdad. Thats 2.5 million Shia, surrounded by Sunnis.

What a mess. And theres not much USUK can do to resolve or alleeviate this growing mess.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Nov 1 2006 9:10 utc | 4

The Sunnis can't hope to actually take the city. Best guess is they're expecting a Shia uprising in Baghdad, which would throw away both the Kerensk, err... Maliki government and the occupation forces.

And there's no Godwinism to liken current situation to poor military planning in history as far as I can see.
Though I could come closer:
"new teams of people will "develop messages" for the 24-hour news cycle and "correct the record.""
This can only work if US people are totally clueless about Iraq. Billmon himself mentioned the German that said "even in 1944 with just Nazi propaganda, I could see we were losing. The glorious victories kept being closer to town".

Posted by: CluelessJoe | Nov 1 2006 9:30 utc | 5

Billmon, as for the liberal tag, I am guessing that it has something to do with being just above a nut job like Steve Gilliard on kos's blogroll.

Posted by: Syd Barrett | Nov 1 2006 13:03 utc | 6

The Sunni are now collaborating with the U.S. forces, after the Coalition has realized that letting the Shi'a get their way will hand Iraq to Iran. The containment of Baghdad by the Sunni, with roadblocks and checkpoints, would be impossible unless the U.S. allowed it - U.S. airpower and artillery assets could knock out every single such checkpoint in a few minutes, if it was deemed necessary.

You can be quite certain that the "discussions" between the Sunni (and their Saudi masters) and the U.S. have taken developments in Iraq in quite interesting directions now.

When the Shi'a understand that Bush II is about to do a remake of Bush I's "Rise and we'll support you - NOT" then we have the recipe for a splatter movie beyond anything Feith, Perle, Wolfowitz, Hansen and Cheney ever imagined. A cliffhanger with all of us wondering "who gets the oil at the end?"

Posted by: SteinL | Nov 1 2006 13:07 utc | 7

Speaking of Iraq...

You guys are top notch on the in's & out's of of the war on Iraq, however, being the meta-person I am, I always try to inspire people to see the bigger picture, hence my posts on the war on us at home whenever blogs (topics)of this nature are posted. I believe it is all one, a textual construction of a tapastry, cause and effect that can not be separated or compartmentalized from the overall events. It is --to me at least-- important to glean what one can from what recently deceased Anthropologist Clifford Geertz called the 'Thick' description, or the meta-narrative. The thick description and thin conclusion are contrasted and juxtaposed and should be considered in both domestic and foriegn policy of the neo-clap.*

One can't talk about the partition of Iraq w/out all the parts, and Turkey's role is hugh. These mad king/Gods love they're Cartesian-Newtonian mechanistic power/voodoo of pulling imaginary things apart and then joining them back together again always at a price of blood and money.

So, I went dumpster diving over at kos, (funny how the most important diaries always end up in the dumpster...)and found this:


Blogger makes Lockheed Martin Nervous

A blogger, Mizgin at Rastî, has been trying to bring attention to the fact that the USG's recently-appointed 'Special Envoy' to help Turkey deal with the Kurds has a conflict of interest.

General Joseph Ralston is also on the board of Lockheed Martin, as well as a Vice Chairman of The Cohen Group, a lobbying company that is employed by Lockheed Martin.

In the past month, Lockheed Martin has sold $13 Billion worth of fighter jets to Turkey in two separate deals - and they appear to have employed a crisis management firm to help monitor the calls for Ralston's resignation.

*Neo-clap: where you fuck anyone for $$$ and spread the disease

Clap: slang;form of std (sexually transmitted disease).

P.S.,
R.I.P. Clifford Geertz, you will be missed.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 1 2006 14:39 utc | 8

SteinL

The Sunnis are cooperating so closely with US forces that it would appear there have been at least 90 deaths in October due to inaccurate sniper fire, lousy pray and spray tactics and premature IED detonations. With cooperation like this, there is precious little need for hostility.

Judging by the relentlessly negative dynamics on the ground, it would appear that the ongoing STORIES of negotiations between the US and the "Sunnis" ( these stories have appeared on a regular basis since early 2004 ) have failed to bear any fruit. There's a simple reason for this: a good portion of the STORIES are just STORIES; they don't actually have any objective referent in this world ( ie a reduction in violence directed at the US military in the Sunni dominated areas of Iraq ) that they can be tied to which would transform them from STORIES into something concrete.

The US military, contrary to mythical assumption, does not have the capacity or the resources to erect a super-panopticon of instantaneous death over Iraq; if it did, there wouldn't be at least 80 IED's being planted everyday, let alone the sheer level of extra chaos that prevails on the ground.

A more accurate observation: the maintenance of coalition military supply lines from Kuwait would be impossible if the Iraqi Shia didn't permit them to function. Any objective analysis of the political strategy that the Iraqi Shia have practised since the invasion would lead one to the conclusion that any attempt at a repeat of the great betrayal of 1991 will result in the wholesale disappearance of large sections of the US military currently deployed in Iraq.

Posted by: dan | Nov 1 2006 15:55 utc | 9

wow uncle, that ralston story is a catch. the rethugs just love tooting the rah kurds propaganda as their screeming success, this could put major damage on their pr campaign

Posted by: annie | Nov 1 2006 16:30 utc | 10

The Cockburn Guardian article cited above clearly portrays that Iraq has disintegrated into a Mad Max World.

I'm so damn old I remember Ike saying "I will go to Korea" and I got to visit Vietnam first hand. In both cases, US troops battled to a bloody draw. Troops dying for nothing turned Americans against Truman and Johnson/Nixon. In Iraq there aren't enough troops for even a tie.

As soon as the Shiites realize that the Americans are pulling out leaving them to the tender mercies of the Sunnis, the US Army's supply line and route of retreat South to Kuwait shuts down.

Posted by: Jim S | Nov 1 2006 17:23 utc | 11

von manstein was not the general he sold himself as being - the mythology of his genius was a cold war invention. manstein himself sold himself for dinner

& he was amongst the first to affirm the kommisarorder that was an open door to mass slaughter

these kind of thieves thrive not on honour but dumb luck & that dumb luck always turns around as it did for the germans long before stalingrad & for the american precisely at the moment they sd it was a mission accomplished

it is not surprising that the real military genius's have had no formal training other than necessity - whether it was tito or giap - they were in the end 'great listeners' & conversed with the facts, no matter how terrible

imperial armies are so busy selling their story they forget what the truth was if they even knew it in the first place

Posted by: remembereringgiap | Nov 1 2006 18:40 utc | 12

I recall several months ago there was talk of negotiations with the insurgents who offered some deal premised on a timetable for withdrawal with the added condition that it must pass a US senate vote.

And faced with an unrelenting insurgency that no doubt recognizes increasing weariness on the part of its adversary, the USA is not likely to get a better deal. On the other hand, the Shia will not agree to any deal without the go-ahead from Teheran.

Every time it has looked like it cannot possibly get any worse, it does.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Nov 1 2006 18:56 utc | 13

There has been contingency planning, a shredder truck big enough to swallow a school bus has been positioned in the Cheney compound.

Posted by: christofay | Nov 2 2006 0:01 utc | 14

"Fire at Fort Mead," literally spooks in the attic

Posted by: christofay | Nov 2 2006 0:03 utc | 15

@annie #10

If you ever make it over MSLA way, let me know, we'd make one hell of a team. Flirt flirt...lol

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 2 2006 1:30 utc | 16

Are the wheels coming off yet...
Even more Contingency Planning?

Cut and Run Capitalism. Looks like it, as Bechtel leaves Iraq after "heartbreaking" failures.
Who's next?

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 2 2006 14:16 utc | 17

They're not alone

"Manhattan security company Kroll has withdrawn its bodyguard teams from Iraq and Afghanistan after it lost four workers in Iraq, its parent company said Wednesday.

Michael Cherkasky, president and chief executive of Kroll owner Marsh & McLennan Cos., told The Associated Press that the business in the two countries wasn't worth risking the lives of their employees."

Oh, and don't be fooled, I suspect they're not bailing at all, it is just asking for more money, now that they have cashed the previous round of checks. And if they fail, well it was a good trip.

Translation: Losing mercenaries means death cash to the families, which raises salaries and premiums for live mercenaries — and cuts into profit margins.

Besides, It's hard to fathom just how bad it was for Bechtel, Kroll etc, given the pretty much endless supply of cash the US government (your tax dollars) were/are paying them.

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 2 2006 14:34 utc | 18

Uncle it won't be the loss of the mercenaries that's troubling them as they are 'sub-contractors' not employees. A big mob of Pacific Islander 'sub-contractors' have been lost this year and I doubt Kroll are losing any sleep over that. The compensation payouts to the deceased families are pitiful as is any rehab or other assistance for the maimed subbies. They will be getting skittish about the deaths of fellow 'corporate cavaliers' the colleagues offa the corporate softball team. Any corporation operating in Iraq will be hard pressed to do it without a few salarymen. No doubt after nigh on 4 years the insurgents are learning which targets matter and which don't.

This will be a push for more money along with a decrease in the level of supervision, record keeping and any other due diligence that the Feds still insist be completed in Iraq.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Nov 2 2006 20:57 utc | 19

oh my god uncle #16 the feeling is so mutual. i will be on my way to the train station this afternon to pick up my ticket.

as long as i am able to post from your house, that way the whole bar will no nothing of our affair as my absence would surely go noticed otherwise.

Posted by: annie | Nov 2 2006 21:20 utc | 20

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