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Two Years From Now
What will the situation in Iraq be two years from now?
Except for some marginal changes, some more troops there and some less there, the situation will just be the same than it is now.
Lang and Lagauche also see this picture.
The Iraq Study Group is just a big sham to produce a new plan that will just be the old plan in new cloth. The Democrats are for staying in Iraq just as much as the Republicans and the decider has decided and will not change that.
Unless there is some cathalytic event – another 9/11 in the US, an attack on Iran, or an attack by the Iraqi resistance with mass US casualties, there is nobody important who will really press for change.
“Unless there is some cathalytic event – another 9/11 in the US, an attack on Iran, or an attack by the Iraqi resistance with mass US casualties, there is nobody important who will really press for change.”
Even with those factors (and another “catalytic” event on this administration’s watch would remove the tiny veneer of competence they keep trying to attach to their failed policies), there is nobody in the world, including the impoverished sector of the USA, who wants it to be their own boots on the ground of that tar baby. Yet the only “solutions” being proposed by anyone who isn’t talking about withdrawal involve more damned boots on the ground.
Hell, US Army recruiters have been reduced to telling potential enlistees that the war in Iraq is “over”. Even the promise of health insurance, college money and three hots and a cot haven’t been enough to entice the poor to fill enlistment quotas for the past three years. So where are these boots going to come from?
There seem to be only two routes for the US, and they both begin with the letter “D”… Draft or Disengage. Nobody makes any money from the second option, so it’ll have to be the first… and Dollars to Doughnuts this proposal will have to come from another “D”… the DNC… in order to have any legitimacy.
Fareed Zakaria, in the latest Newsweek (the dumbed-down domestic version), discusses these boots a bit… concluding, as everyone else has that (t)he question of boots on the ground is critical to any progress, but he doesn’t mention where those boots are going to come from. We only know where they’re not going to come from, which is any nation adjacent to Iraq that doesn’t have a six-sided star on it’s flag.
For three years, America’s Iraq policy has largely ignored the rest of the Middle East. That was no accident. The neoconservative vision was always that Iraq would be made anew, shorn of the flaws and ailments of the Arab world. Before the invasion, senior policymakers speculated that Iraq’s postwar government would recognize Israel. “The road to Jerusalem runs through Baghdad,” they were fond of saying.
I think it’s clear even to the dual citizens who started this thing that squashing the locals aren’t going to make them turn into flag-waving Zionists overnight. So much for Plan A. But Zakaria still seems to be unable to remove the rose-tinted glasses and concludes that those phantom boots we keep talking about are going to be coming from Iraq’s neighbours:
None of the surrounding nations would benefit if Iraq actually did collapse, setting off territorial disputes, sending refugees into neighboring lands and exporting Iraq’s instability. Such an outcome can still be avoided, but only with active support from these countries. The Baker-Hamilton commission can be expected to recommend a major regional effort.
Despite the fact that nobody wants to call this thing, Iraq already has collapsed, and there already is a “major regional effort” going on… it just isn’t friendly to Israel or the USA.
To be fair, Zakaria isn’t entirely removed from reality (even if he can’t seem to shake that ubiquitous pro-Western bias), and his bleak conclusions do reflect that reality. Namely, there is not a soul in the world who can tell us definitely what the fuck we’re doing in Iraq in the first place. Every analysis has to pick one of the several unsatisfying a priori about what the hell it is we’re doing (Was it about oil? Was it about WMD? Was it to overthrow an evil dictator? Was it the US President’s personal grudge? Was it the pro-Israel contingent trying to overthrow a rival? Was it a “central front” on the GWOT? Was it intentionally to destabilize the region to ensure imperial control? Was it to pursue the PNAC “perpetual war” doctrine? Was it motivated to boost the US economy? Was it to justify more defense contracts?) Nobody can prescribe a solution because nobody is precisely sure what the goal was in the first place.
The funniest thing about Zakaria’s assessment is his ultimate conclusion that “America’s only real leverage is the threat of withdrawal”, and that “…for such a threat to be meaningful, we must be prepared to carry it out.” While nobody can agree about why the US continues to occupy Iraq, it’s crystal clear to everyone that we have no intention of budging from there until the administration that put us there is given that rose-petal parade they wanted (viz. They must not allow this to be seen as the liability it so apparently is).
So my projection for the next two years is that there will still be a naked emperor, but he will be obscured from view by a giant pile of boots.
Posted by: Monolycus | Nov 13 2006 4:31 utc | 28
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