Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
November 5, 2006
Election Prediction

Just a guess from what I read:

  • the House goes to the Democrats;
  • the Senate keeps a Republican majority after Lieberman (Joe that is) switches party and with Cheney’s vote counted in;
  • no change in any Bush/Cheney policy.

What’s your take?

Comments

yep, w/diebold there’s no way the letting the senate go blue.

Posted by: annie | Nov 5 2006 20:08 utc | 1

Into the blue again/after the moneys gone
Once in a lifetime/water flowing underground.
Same as it ever was…same as it ever was…same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…same as it ever was…same as it ever was…
Same as it ever was…same as it ever was

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 5 2006 20:27 utc | 2

I tend to agree. I hate it but I do.

Posted by: beq | Nov 5 2006 22:23 utc | 3

I think Dems will pick up 10 seats or fewer in the House. If they actually do get 30 or more I’ll be happily wrong – for about 10 minutes, after which time the ralization that not much will be different will set back in.
But, really, anything much more than 10 seats would surprise me, no matter what the polls are saying.

Posted by: mats | Nov 6 2006 0:08 utc | 4

Pretty much agree with B’s take. But, the changeover in the House has the potential to be positive for our country and the issues that concern us most. It isn’t so much a party thing, per se, but the quality and character of some of the individuals that will become Committee Chairmen under the dems. John Conyers, Henry Waxman, possibly George Miller and John Dingell – these guys are tired of the bs, tired of the lack of accountability, sick at seeing the underpinnings of our country torn down. They could do a lot through hearings, subpoenas, shining the light all over the dark places that the republicans have been trying to keep under wraps. Plus whatever new vision, energy, and character may be brought in with a new wave of newly-elected progressives. Maybe it is not sufficient, certainly not nirvana, but I am somewhat optimistic about putting the brakes on the slide into authoritarianism with a dem takeover, in spite of the Dem Party’s institutional spinelessness.

Posted by: maxcrat | Nov 6 2006 0:13 utc | 5

in spite of the Dem Party’s institutional spinelessness.
Dem party needs a complete overhaul. No ifs or buts.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Nov 6 2006 1:49 utc | 6

b, Sounds about right.
For many reasons, maybe that is the best of the possible outcomes.
There is something much more deliberate than institutional spinelessness in the Democratic Party. Don’t trust the Central Party at all.
I’m concerned that they will be reining in any real reformers or investigations, perhaps bargaining away threats of investigation to keep the corporatist moderate Republicans, who are chafing at failed policies, from exerting any pressure on Israel. It is unclear that Dem Central wants any real changes in Middle East operations.
Dems controlling only one house, also, makes it harder for Repubs to blame any of the damage ready to blow in the next 2 yrs on Dems. But it might be enough maybe, just maybe for Dems to curb the worst strategic temptations of the next 2 yrs. Just tie up the legislative mechanism, as the Founders intended, until something better emerges.

Posted by: small coke | Nov 6 2006 2:54 utc | 7

hey guys,
any ReTHUG loss is a win for humanity… chin up!

Posted by: crone | Nov 6 2006 3:20 utc | 8

Two Words – C..H…A…O…S & C..O…R..R…U…P….T…I…O..N.
Any congruence between the reported outcomes & the way citizens actually voted will be purely coincidental. Anyone who has ever been involved in installation of computer systems will appreciate this. Even setting aside the seizure of the electoral commons by the Pirates with political ties to one party (how do they choose?), if you want to create utter chaos, you build & install a computer system that will be used ~2x every two years at thousands of locations. You have it overseen by tens of thousands of volunteers, and used by those who have just a few minutes; but demand a perfectly operating system each time it is used. As far as recipes for disaster, that’s up there w/making cookies using mud. No one’s even talking about this; but as I know that there are other computer literates around here, I thght. it should be at least noted – in the interest of completeness, if nothing else šŸ™‚
However, my absolutely fave story is that elites are so Addicted to ballot box stuffing, that one thoughtful company even accomodated them, by putting in an easy to operate ballot-box stuffing button on their machine. Cannot make this shit up file for damn sure!!
Another phenomenon worth noting is that since it came out that Rehnquist made his bones – that ultimately gave him a seat on SCOTUS – by barring Blacks who were presumably Dems. from voting, that has been the SOP for young Repug functionaries seeking to similarly demonstrate their ambition. Rehnquist became like a flower, that in dying scatters its seeds widely over the land šŸ™‚
So, what do predictions mean in this new world of purged voter lists (500,000 Dems. in Ohio alone – 10% of total electorate), infinite lines for Dems., no exit polls, massive malfunctions & rigged systems? To me, the method is what matters. The result is a merely an afterthought, a consequence of voting in a cesspool of massively centralized corruption.
To put it another way, Imagine what the Admin/Propaganda System would say if Chavez in Venezuela were re-elected usingthe identical voting methodology that’s considered perfectly acceptable here?
As far as remaking the JackAss Party, they’re hard at work on it, thanks to Rahm Emmanuel in the House et al. They’ve done a 180. It used to be we’ll destroy Americans economically, while hiding behind women & gays. However, since Thomas Frank told them that they were losing “Kansas” ‘cuz they no longer helped the people economically & didn’t agree w/their social values, they’ve changed. Now rather than changing their economic policies, they’ve dumped women overboard, are still stooges of the Wall St. Predators & are not funding anyone who doesn’t support a stay the course in Iraq policy. Oh, but they’ll support increasing the minimum wage! If anyone wants to vote for that be my guest.
However, in many states, incl. Ca. & Montana there are Extremely important Initiaves on the ballot.
What music, intoxicants & media do barflies have planned for Circus Night? It looks like Bev’s site, Brad & MCM will offer the best coverage. What else looks promising? And of course Jim Morrison…hot lemonade w/Grade B Maple Syrup & dark rum…

Posted by: jj | Nov 6 2006 5:23 utc | 9

circus remedies:
zappa. single-malt scotch whiskey. no media; go for a walk in the rain.

Posted by: catlady | Nov 6 2006 5:33 utc | 10

sounds good catlady…
SomaFM’s
Groove salad (A nicely chilled plate of ambient beats and grooves)and some Hennessy over here tue night, I think…
I’d join you in that walk in the rain. Good for the soul…

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Nov 6 2006 6:32 utc | 11

If you were giving odds, I’d bet on your take. And if it did start to look like the Republicans were to lose the Senate as well, I imagine they will start complaining of voter fraud and insisting on recounts and investigations to hamstring any chance of the new Congress being seated before 2008.

Posted by: ralphieboy | Nov 6 2006 6:48 utc | 12

Appreciate the suggestions. Uncle, you might get lucky up there & get a blizzard – that’d be great for a walk in w/a warm drink…
But don’t forget you also have that RADICAL TAKINGS INITIATIVE ON YR. BALLOT, so voting not optional this time around…If passed in Ca, it will allow the Pirates to take over the Coast…not to mention cities…
We have another initiative that shows the direction things are going. The Pirates are finding ever more devious & clever ways to loot, the public & even other Pirates. There’s this Prop. 87, being mis-labeled an environmental proposition. Of course, Clinton & Gore were out here stumping for it, so those who loved Gore’s flick will probably fall for it. That should have told me immediately, but no…damn i almost fell for it., since no one is talking about the fine print The first part of it is intelligent – it says, since the oil being pumped from Ca. is finite & underground & therefore belongs to all of us, the oil cos. should pay an extraction fee. So, of course, Chevron is spending $100M to defeat it, though they pay it in Texas & La. In short, it’s SOP, not radical.
But here’s the problem – where will that money go? Supposedly, it will go for research into “alternative energy” etc. If it went for research into wind & solar & for subsidies to the botton 80% of homeowners so they could get their homes off the grid that’d be great. But hell no. Turns out, it’s what happens when ADM gets together w/the Venture Capital Industry. Most of the money will go to “biofuels”, and the guy who’s bankrolling the initiative – to the tune of ~$50M – stands to make a killing off it. There is No Accountability, even though the money belongs to all of us, and they even hard coded into the initiative the percentage that must go to Biofuels, read ADM… Talk about Kleptocracy, Inc!!!
So, read yr. Propositions Carefully kids šŸ™‚

Posted by: jj | Nov 6 2006 6:50 utc | 13

Uncle $cam – thank you for the music link – … unusual listening for me.
US election – From my perch in Toronbto, I think I agree with Berhard – no Dem control of Senate.
Anybody looking at Nicaragua election results? It looks like Otto Reich will be highly annoyed. I expect weather reports of scattered tooth fragment showers, or at least loud thunderclaps of teeth knashing.
“Strong lead” is being reported for Ortega, according to the latest news.

Posted by: Owl | Nov 6 2006 8:01 utc | 14

ok, i’m groovin now, maybe i’ll pore me another…
nice link

Posted by: annie | Nov 6 2006 9:23 utc | 15

Computerised voting machines are a waste of money and energy. A useless intermediary. An improvement which is not one. Paper ballots, correspondence, provided the mail is reliable, and internet furnish all that is needed.
Those machines remind me of X ray machines they had in shoe stores long ago. (I’m a fan of the the history of minor gadgetry – the itinerant vaccum cleaner, etc.) They were useless and dangerous, but provided and opportunity to sell X ray machines and for shoe buyers to be snowed by swanky science.
The foot and the shoe can meet without the machine. The vote can be cast using tried and true methods, and the internet, which is actually very cheap and handy.
OK, I reckon B has it about right. As far as I can judge which is not far.

Posted by: Noirette | Nov 6 2006 18:59 utc | 16

I ordered an absentee ballot because I was supposed to be working out of town tomorrow. I personally delivered it last Tuesday. That paper ballot looked good too.

Posted by: beq | Nov 6 2006 19:14 utc | 17

I think you’ve got it exactly, b. Looks like the last two Senate races go Dem (MO 92%: D 963k, R 931k; MT 73%: D 147k, R 140k) making D 51 to R 49 BEFORE Joementum switches “for the good of the country” to give Cheney the tie-breaker. Still, a good night by my reckoning. Now I just want to see investigations, indictments, convictions and jail time meted out from now till 2008.

Posted by: PeeDee | Nov 8 2006 8:00 utc | 18

my hope
it’s not over til the fat lady sings

Posted by: annie | Nov 8 2006 18:02 utc | 19