Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 3, 2006
Who Blinked First?

The standoff in Georgia is over. Saakashvili has set free the four Russian officers he had detained for alleged spying. There is some truthiness in various media accounts on why he did do so.

Seeing this a Putin – Saakashvili match, the Guardian editorial says:

The president of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, blinked first.

The Washington Post editors, under the headline "Enough Bullying", also has some Putin bashing and this:

Yesterday, pressed by the Bush administration, Georgia allowed the Russian officers to return home.

So who was the bully here?

No editorial in the LA Times, but a news piece with some more light on the issue:

Russian President Vladimir V. Putin spoke by telephone with President Bush about the incident, the Kremlin said.

Putin warned against any actions by countries "that Georgia’s leadership could interpret as encouraging its destructive policy," the Kremlin said after the Putin-Bush conversation.

So here we end up: Saakashvili tries a stunt by detaining some Russian officers. This for inner political reasons, Georgias economy is in deep trouble, and to gain some speed in his push for NATO membership.

The Russians, not amused, call him bluff and install some sanctions. Then Putin rings Bush and bullies him. Bush blinks first and calls Saakashvili to surrender which he does. To make the point absolutly clear, Putin extends the sanctions anyhow.

Saakashvili lost this little game he started big time. The economic situation has gotten worse through the sanctions and now openly has no reliable western backing. Above that, no European NATO member will want a neighbor of Russia under its cover, which risks a big war over a stupid local stunt. The Rose revolution has withered just as the Orange one.

But the above accounts avoid two real questions:
How did Putin bully Bush? and
Why did Bush blink first?

Comments

Is this why I am seeing Cold War Redux stories in the news now? I was under the impression that Russians were very friendly with their neighbours.

Posted by: Monolycus | Oct 3 2006 18:04 utc | 1

U.N. Near Agreement On N. Korea Sanctions

Security Council diplomats said the United States and China are working on compromise language that would split the difference. It would refer to Chapter 7 but would require explicit council approval to consider any action against North Korea.
Russia’s ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, meanwhile, said early Thursday that Moscow needs more time to consider the U.S. draft. He said a vote should be delayed until after Russian officials hold high-level meetings in Moscow with a senior Chinese delegation on Friday and Saturday.
But council diplomats said Russia softened its opposition after Rice agreed in a phone conversation with Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to drop U.S. opposition to a Russian-backed resolution criticizing its neighbor Georgia, which recently detained seven Russian soldiers who were accused of spying.

Saakashvili really needs to update his resume.

Posted by: b | Oct 13 2006 5:20 utc | 2