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October 5, 2006
OT 06-94
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NYT editorial: Deeper and Deeper
While foreign investors were putting up most of the $1.5 trillion the federal government has borrowed since 2001, they were also snapping up hundreds of billions of dollars in private sector securities, transactions that have been a big source of the easy money that allowed Americans to borrow heavily against their homes.
The result, as The Wall Street Journal reported last week, is that for the first time in at least 90 years, the United States is now paying noticeably more to foreign creditors than it receives from its investments abroad. That is a momentous shift. It means that a growing share of America’s future collective income will flow abroad, leading to a lower standard of living in the United States than would otherwise have been achieved. Americans deserve better than this financial mess.
Why should they deserve better? They have been warned and didn´t act.
Warren Buffett, 2004 letter to shareholders (pdf)
This annual royalty paid the world – which would not disappear unless the U.S. massively underconsumed and began to run consistent and large trade surpluses – would undoubtedly produce significant political unrest in the U.S. Americans would still be living very well, indeed better than now because of the growth in our economy. But they would chafe at the idea of perpetually paying tribute to their creditors and owners abroad. A country that is now aspiring to an “Ownership Society” will not find happiness in – and I’ll use hyperbole here for emphasis – a “Sharecropper’s Society.” But that’s precisely where our trade policies, supported by Republicans and Democrats alike, are taking us.
breal,
Alfred North Whitehead was an animist, no really.
Posted by: anna missed | Oct 5 2006 4:12 utc | 2
yep. vine deloria jr used to refer to his ideas quite a bit, as they provided a promising bridge between the indigenous and western world views.
here’s another whitehead quote that seems relevant to egging us on in our political actions:
if you had your attention directed to the novelties in thought in your own lifetime, you will have observed that almost all really new ideas have a certain aspect of foolishness when they are first produced.
Posted by: b real | Oct 5 2006 4:44 utc | 3
Period US UK Other* Total Avg Days 10-2006 20, 1, 0, 21, 4.2, 5
Deathly Silence
Posted by: DM | Oct 5 2006 9:33 utc | 4
They may not give it out freely, but the full story is there, waiting to be discovered. And slowly but surely it will come out, all of it – unless and until another terrorist attack makes it almost irrelevant.
– Raimondo
Should I be buying shares in tinfoil?
Posted by: DM | Oct 5 2006 10:36 utc | 5
b,
we have long passed the point of a growing economy benefitting all who participate in it, only those who actively invest and trade in it at a high level.
Posted by: ralphieboy | Oct 5 2006 11:27 utc | 6
British Find No Evidence Of Arms Traffic From Iran
ON THE IRAQ-IRAN BORDER — Since late August, British commandos in the deserts of far southeastern Iraq have been testing one of the most serious charges leveled by the United States against Iran: that Iran is secretly supplying weapons, parts, funding and training for attacks on U.S.-led forces in Iraq.
A few hundred British troops living out of nothing more than their cut-down Land Rovers and light armored vehicles have taken to the desert in the start of what British officers said would be months of patrols aimed at finding the illicit weapons trafficking from Iran, or any sign of it.
There’s just one thing.
“I suspect there’s nothing out there,” the commander, Lt. Col. David Labouchere, said last month, speaking at an overnight camp near the border. “And I intend to prove it.”
Other senior British military leaders spoke as explicitly in interviews over the previous two months. Britain, whose forces have had responsibility for security in southeastern Iraq since the war began, has found nothing to support the Americans’ contention that Iran is providing weapons and training in Iraq, several senior military officials said.
“I have not myself seen any evidence — and I don’t think any evidence exists — of government-supported or instigated” armed support on Iran’s part in Iraq, British Defense Secretary Des Browne said in an interview in Baghdad in late August.
“It’s a question of intelligence versus evidence,” Labouchere’s commander, Brig. James Everard of Britain’s 20th Armored Brigade, said last month at his base in the southern region’s capital, Basra. “One hears word of mouth, but one has to see it with one’s own eyes. These are serious consequences, aren’t they?”
b,
how “foreign” are these foreigners who are doing the lending? How much of these funds are controlled by entities that are in fact part of the Dollar economy, even though they are incorporated off-shore or even “abroad”? There is no data on this, and for good reason, but I bet you that the percentage is astounding.
The percentage of US corporate profits generated “abroad” is now at 20%. And those are the declared profits, the repatriated funds. What about the rest?
The idea that the US economic elite is bankrupting its own home base is hilarious. It is reminiscent of Marx’s “scientific certainty” that capitalists would ruin each other and their system through competition.
Posted by: Guthman Bey | Oct 5 2006 12:04 utc | 8
@guthman,
you have a point about the flow of capital, but what about the flow of jobs? Back when a rising tide lifted all boats, it meant employment and more prosperity for Americans.
Now it means jobs leaving the country, where they might not bring prosperity, but perhaps help ease the desperation of non-Americans.
Is this a rising tide or water seeking its own level?
Posted by: ralphieboy | Oct 5 2006 12:13 utc | 9
Nir Rozen on Hizbullah an Nasrallah
When climbing amid the ruined schools, fuel stations, shops, homes, roads and bridges of southern Lebanon or driving through village after village flattened and pulverized by the terror that rained down, it is clear that the civilian population was deliberately targeted. Over 1 million cluster bombs were dropped, and 40% of them did not explode. They remain in the south, waiting for children to play with them, for farmers to step on them, a gift that keeps on giving. The agricultural fields on which the south depends for its economy are destroyed. Then as now, Israel knows what it and America continue to deny: Hizballah is the people, and hence the only way to push Hizballah north of the Litani River as Israel stated it wanted to do was to cleanse the south of Shias and make sure it was too dangerous, and economically impossible, for them to return. But the Shias of Lebanon pride themselves on their steadfastness, and their culture of resistance to oppression. They cannot be so easily dislodged. At fighting’s end, they returned and ensconced themselves in the ruins, trusting Hizballah to provide and reward them for their loyalty.
The media has fast forgotten Lebanon: Americans are distracted by what former Rep. Mark Foley wrote to congressional pages; many Muslims worldwide are more concerned with whether or not the pope insulted Islam than with who is actually killing Muslims. As the 1 million Lebanese refugees who fled Israeli terror return to sift through the rubble of their lives, they will be sidestepping cluster bombs and trusting that Hizballah will house and shelter them from the fast-approaching winter. As we Americans mourn our losses in the Sept. 11 attacks and in the subsequent war on terror (which has now cost more American lives than were lost in the attacks that provoked it), it is worth wondering: What exactly is terrorism? And if it is the infliction of violence on civilians for political reasons, then who are the terrorists?
ralphie,
globalisation means relocating jobs that’s clear. The biggest winners under this system are the capitalists, at least for now. US Corporate profits as a percentage of GDP are currently at the highest levels since the inception of these statistics in 1948. I am not defending or decrying any of this. My point is merely that US capitalism is thriving (though perhaps in a very negative way) and not in the process of destroying its own financial foundations.
A rising tide and water seeking its own level isn’t contradictory is it? Depends on your location and the time of day.
Posted by: Guthman Bey | Oct 5 2006 12:25 utc | 11
AngryArab writes that The Nation refused to run Rosen’s article because it wasn’t pro-Israel enough. I think the article is great and hope it gets widely distributed and has some impact on Western opinion. It depicts Hezbollah in the positive tone that it richly deserves.
As is de rigueur for Western articles on Lebanon, it is also full of misperceptions about HB’s secularism, but they are benevolent misperceptions. If it allows Western political opinion on Hezbollah to move away from the false and uninformed “extremist-terror-religious fanatics” label by fabricating another false and uninformed label that this time says “secular-tolerant-chic” then more power to it.
For those who are interested in this subject matter, there is an intelligent interview with Bashar al-Assad on HB quoted this morning by Joshua Landis on his blog Syria Comment.
He also mentions that consigliere Baker is apparently talking to the Syrians. Reason is returning to the political scene. And not a moment too soon.
Posted by: Guthman Bey | Oct 5 2006 12:53 utc | 12
reason is as unlikely to the political scene as it is for the body of louis althusser to be ressurected & for me to transform water into mecca cola sans sucre or the remission of the sins of the cheney bush jubta
Posted by: remembereringgiap | Oct 5 2006 13:01 utc | 13
Reason on the polical scene is no more likely or unlikely as anywhere else. It is possible. Resurrecting the awful Louis Althusser on the other hand is fortunately impossible.
Posted by: Guthman Bey | Oct 5 2006 13:17 utc | 14
Juan Cole is in an darkly humorous mood today. It is about uses for the appropriated money for victory celebrations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Posted by: ww | Oct 5 2006 13:20 utc | 15
Oaxaca Crisis Timeline & Requested Urgent Action
Global Exchange has put out a short story and a very useful timeline of events. It is posted on the US site of onewold.net.
Indymedia UK has posted a story today from Nancy Davies of Narco News in Oaxaca saying that there are now 5000 police from other states dressed in army fatigues and that they believe a violent attack is imminent. She pleads for people to write to government officials (and lists names and e-mail addresses) to not seek a violent solution: Mexico: Oaxaca Facing Imminent Attack
Of course, we never see this in the MSM.
Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 5 2006 15:07 utc | 16
thanks for pointing that out Uncle $cam. this brings to mind all those movies we have seen over the years about Mexican revolutions where thousands of campesinos get slaughtered and nothing changes at the top.
I still admire them though, even though it may be hopeless they are trying. According to this story, one out every ten citizens went on a megamarch.
In a few years, when our fellow Nort Americanos get a taste of what it is like being on the bottom, just maybe we all can grow a collective spine and start manning the barricades too.
Posted by: dan of steele | Oct 5 2006 15:37 utc | 17
Our rigged elections: The elephant in the polling booth
By Mark Crispin Miller
Baltimore Chronicle
Democrats are going to lose the contest in November, even though the people will (again) be voting for them. The Bush Republicans are likely to remain in power despite the fact that only a minority will vote to have them there. That, at any rate, is what will happen if we don’t start working to pre-empt it now.
To say that this election could go either way is not to say that the Republicans have any chance of winning it. As a civic entity responsive to the voters’ will, the party’s over, there being no American majority that backs it, or that ever would. Bush has left the GOP in much the same condition as Iraq, Afghanistan, the global climate, New Orleans, the Bill of Rights, our military, our economy and our national reputation….
More:
link
Die-bold, and others; serious, with references, links.
Posted by: Noirette | Oct 5 2006 17:33 utc | 18
Averny at Counterpunch: Lunch in Damascus
peace with Syria would mean giving back the Golan Heights (Syrian territory by any definition). No peace, no need to give them back.
But when Bashar starts to talk peace, we are in trouble. That is a sinister plot. It may, God forbid, create a situation that would compel us to return the territory.
…
The second reason for rejecting peace with Syria is connected with the United States. Syria belongs to George Bush’s “axis of evil”. The American president doesn’t give a damn for the long-range interests of Israel, what is important to him is to achieve some sort of victory in the Middle East. The destruction of the Syrian regime (“a victory for democracy”) will compensate him for the Iraq fiasco.
No Israeli government–and certainly not that of Olmert–would dare to disobey the American president. Therefore, it is self-evident that all peace feelers from Assad will be rejected “on the threshold”. Tsipi Livni, who last week opened a new front against Olmert and presented herself almost as a peace-lover, opposes the start of negotiations with Syria as well.
…
THIS AFFAIR throws some light on the complex relations between Israel and the United States: who is wagging who–does the dog wag its tail or the tail its dog?
Olmert says that we must ignore Assad’s peace offers, because we must not help him to escape Bush’s wrath. Let’s dwell on this utterance for a moment.
An Israeli patriot would, of course, have said exactly the opposite: If Assad is ready to make peace with us–even if only because he is afraid of the Americans–we should jump at this opportunity and exploit this situation to achieve at long last peace on our northern front.
Last week Olmert made a remarkable declaration: “As long as I am Prime Minister, we shall not give up the Golan for all eternity!” What does that mean? Either Olmert believes that his term of office coincides with God’s term of office, and he will rule in eternity–or in Olmert’s world, eternity extends to four years, at most.
Anyhow, until then, my taxi-driver and I shall have to wait for our lunch in Damascus.
the peacock report: Anti-Michael Moore Analyst Gets Hundred-Grand Special Ops Psyops Contract
The term “psychological operations,” or psyops, is well known these days even outside of military and public-policy circles. But what exactly are psyops, aside from aerial leafleting of “enemy” territory or the surreptitious broadcasting of pre-packaged media into “rogue” nations? Thanks to a recent contract that the U.S. Special Operations Command (SOC) awarded to Torrance, California-based Kelton Rhoads, Ph.D. and his Working Psychology organization, TPR was able to pin down a few basic details of how U.S. Special Forces learn to “modify the behavior of various foreign target audiences and in a variety of environments,”as the Sept. 26 award describes the process of scientifically manipulating human emotion.
Before we get to that, keep in mind that Rhoads also is the author of an analysis, for lack of a better word, of Michael Moore’s Fahrenheit 9/11, a film which he says so outraged “middle America” that it actually helped George W. Bush get reelected. He accuses Moore of using some of the same propaganda tactics – albeit unsuccessfully – that Rhoads not-so-ironically uses in his training of Special Forces and other government and corporate disinformation specialists for whom he is indebted for making a living.
good luck on this one
The ability to predict human responses, particularly when those responses deviate from logic and rationality
Posted by: b real | Oct 5 2006 18:50 utc | 20
Worth reading. Sao Paolo 2006: Che Guevara for killers reads Nietzsche and Schopenhauer.
Posted by: Guthman Bey | Oct 5 2006 21:33 utc | 21
how is it that we become so caught up in the foley scandal when our constitution is being gutted, signing statements are eroding the checks and balances, our election systems has been infiltrated by diebold, the navy is being deployed for the strait of hormuz, iraq remains a killing field, and the lebanonese children skirt cluster bombs in southern lebanon? as pleasurable as it is to watch them squirm, do we have any reasonable attention span at all? if only the people who i overhear on the subway dishing about foley et al were equally concerned about their own civil rights and how completely manipulated they are by a fascist government/media.
Posted by: conchita | Oct 6 2006 3:20 utc | 22
Global Research has published a long, detailed analysis of the current state of the global chessboard in The War for Oil. There is some discussion of the weaponry included with the fleet now sailing toward the ME, but the apparent national alignments are what struck me. It would seem from this that most European governments support US designs for winning the Great Game.
We bring to the attention of our readers, this carefully documented review of the ongoing naval build-up and deployment of coalition forces in the Middle East.
The article examines the geopolitics behind this military deployment and its relationship to “the Battle for Oil”.
The structure of military alliances is crucial to an understanding of these war preparations.
The naval deployment is taking place in two distinct theaters: the Persian Gulf and the Eastern Mediterranean.
Both Israel and NATO are slated to play a major role in the US-led war.
—-
There are two distinct naval armadas: in the Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea and in the Eastern Mediterranean off the coastlines of Syria and Lebanon.
These armadas are being built-up concurrently. The Eastern Mediterranean build-up is essentially characterized by Israeli and NATO naval and ground forces. In the Persian Gulf, the naval armada is largely American with the participation of the British, Australia, and Canada. In this extensive land mass between the Eastern Mediterranean and the Persian Gulf, various military movements on the ground are occurring, including Northern Iraq and Georgia.
The broader war theater would extend far beyond, northwards to the Caspian Sea Basin and eastwards to Pakistan and China’s Western frontier. What we are dealing with is a chessboard for another Middle Eastern war, which could potentially engulf a much broader region.
Reading this, it would not make sense that Cheney and Co. would go to all this effort and not attack Iran and/or Syria. NATO countries participated in the breakup of Yugoslavia to enhance the west’s position regarding the oil/gas producing countries and the ones through which the pipelines flowed, but are they really signing on for all of this?
Posted by: Anonymous | Oct 6 2006 4:39 utc | 23
youtube vid of PNAC ring leader William Kristol confronted on 9/11
Does everyone turn beet red when confronted by hard questions?
Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 6 2006 5:40 utc | 24
Ted Koppel on Iran Let ’em Have Nukes But…
Even as the United States withholds its goods and technological know-how from Iran, the Europeans, Russians, Japanese and especially the Chinese are offering theirs as quickly as the contracts can be drafted.
The likelihood that more restrictive sanctions will either make it through the United Nations or dissuade Iran from darting down the path toward nuclear technology is about as dim as that of a popular uprising among the people under 30 who make up 70 percent of Iran’s population.
Billmon rightly highlighted Hastert’s attempts to point the finger at George Soros and Co as responsible for this conspiracy to discredit the rethugs as a republican new-age way of blaming the Jews, without attaching any opprobrium at all to their good friend Israel.
However glancing at a few scraps in my RSS feed got me wondering if perhaps AIPAC had become concerned about the rethugs’ dedication to the Zionist cause.
There’s really two separate but interlinked issues in play here. The first is all the noise that BushCo and particularly the Bliar have been making about fixing the Palestinian problem once and for all. Could that mean they are prepared to sacrifice some of the Nazis in charge of Israel’s set-in-concrete demands?
Rice is rushing around trying to put some deal together by which the quisling Abbas heads up some political entity which the world will be told is to be treated as being the Palestinian Authority’s legitimate government.
We tend to forget peace is a lose situation for the Nazis of Israel. Not just because it would mean giving back the Golan Heights or Shebaa Farms etc. If peace were to break out, amerika would cut back on it’s huge aid grants, ergo Israel’s ruling class be staring penury in the face.
But the greatest danger facing the Nazis of Israel is that as the demopublican party becomes more divorced from mainstream national political life, the greater the odds of them taking a really good look at the Zionist lobby which has been intrinsic to the success of the republocrats. Certainly some Dems have been heard quietly questioning why it is that amerika’s interests are so deeply entwined with Israel that it can seem Israel’s needs are rated a higher priority than amerika’s.
Talk like that was unheard of amongst Dems even a couple of years ago. Nothing could be worse for the Nazis in charge than to find that the B&B quest for ‘greatness’ in the history books had persuaded them to sacrifice the Nazi’s needs to meet their own, yet when the Zionists turn to the Dems to put their usual squeeze play on the rethugs they find the Dems have stopped buying into an interest which works against their self-interest.
Not only can the rethugs safely ignore the AIPAC lobby threats because the demopublicans are no longer buying into a process which does them no favours, the demopublicans have a chance of winning some real power without feeling beholden to AIPAC or the Nazis they represent.
This is the big point one that hasn’t been considered when speculating about any of the forces, Wall St., or international that could have decided to give the lame donkey that the demopublican ‘machine’ has become, a shove in the direction of power.
The worst possible outcome for any of the large special interest groups who need the support of whichever half of the PARTY, which happens to be in power, would be for either the demopublican portion or the republocrat to achieve power in spite of that interest group.
Up until this week that is certainly how it must have felt for the demopublicans.
There is a chance they can win control of either or both houses despite their incompetent and spineless leadership, without any defining policies whatsoever, and with no support from any interest, just on the power of the opprobrium felt by voters towards the rethugs.
Special interests could at the very least have to pay well above the normal going rate to get their wishes carried out, if at all. Perhaps someone else would have filled the trough first. Disaster compounded with catastrophe! “woe woe”, wailing, gnashing of implants and rending of $2000 suits is observed throughout the firms of K street.
So whether or not the rethug troubles extend past the weekend, cause the media is as skilled in shutting down these sort of hysterical expose/witch-hunt stories as it is at firing them up, there is at least one lobby group out there able to tell the demopublicans they may be gone but not forgotten.
Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 6 2006 7:58 utc | 26
And now for the comedy portion of our show:
Khameini: Don’t masturbate during Ramadan laugh trac…ha ha hee hee…
Bush to Take Break from Fucking Shit Up Globally to Fuck Shit Up Locally
oh, and one of my favs, for the nihilist in us all,
Nietzsche Family Circus Family Circus cartoons randomly combined with quotes from Nietzsche. Remixing Family Circus is nothing new, but I find this one fascinating.
Sometimes ya just got to laugh, ya know?
Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 6 2006 8:14 utc | 27
Echoing the link from anonymous poster #23.
Global Research
This is the most detailed analysis of recent navy and ground troop movements and long-term strategy I’ve yet seen. It assumes that the US and Britain, with Israel and NATO support are now positioning to invade Syria and Iran in a move to capture oil transport routes in opposition to China and Russia, who are allied with Iran.
It also claims that the US oil protectorates including Saidi Arabia support the Western agenda.
There are a lot of naval forces in the Persian Gulf south of Iraq and Iran and also in the Eastern Mediterranean near Syria and Israel. Turkey, Poland, Denmark, Canada and of course the US and other NATO members are occupying Lebanon, Afghanistan and and Iraq and would move to support an attack on Iran and Syria or contain that war’s expansion.
The report is noncommittal with respect to this attack’s probability of success, mentioning the Straits of Hormuz, Iran’s ability to attack commercial shipping as well as its many missile capabilities and fast PT boats as well as its submarine fleet. It also fails to mention Iran’s air capabilities and modern army.
It also discusses the long-term planning and future ramifications of a war participated in by armed forces from most of the developed world, fighting for control of the known energy sources in the Middle East.
Another bullseye on the target, “Azerbaijan serves primarily as an oil source in the Caspian Sea basin at the outset of the Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan pipeline.”
A final quote: “There is undeniable international competition for energy resources in the world. The Baku-Tbilisi-Cehyan (BTC) Oil Terminal (also called the Caspian-Mediterranean Oil Terminal) has an outlet on the Turkish coast of the Eastern Mediterranean in close proximity to Syria and Lebanon. The opening of this pipeline is geo-strategically an important victory. This is a geo-strategic victory for the Anglo-American alliance, Israel, the large oil corporations, and their partners, but it is a geo-strategic set back for Russia, China, and Iran on the other hand. It seems that the sovereignty of Lebanon has been put into further danger with the opening of the strategic oil terminal.”
Posted by: jonku | Oct 6 2006 8:50 utc | 28
Another bullseye on the target, “Azerbaijan serves primarily as an oil source in the Caspian Sea basin at the outset of the Baku-Tbilisi- Ceyhan pipeline.”
……………………..
Except that Azerbajan is the only country besides Iran that has a majority Shiite population.
Posted by: anna missed | Oct 6 2006 8:56 utc | 29
Mother Jones has some good pieces on Iran, for example this one: Next We Take Tehran
In addition to exaggerating the nuclear threat, the administration has been accusing Iran of harboring Al Qaeda fugitives and supporting bin Laden’s movement, though there is little or no evidence to support these claims. As in Iraq, Washington is sinking millions of dollars into propaganda efforts and alliances with dubious exile groups; according to a recent State Department planning document, the United States is busily setting up Iran intelligence and mobilization centers in Dubai, Istanbul, Frankfurt, London, and Azerbaijan to work with “Iranian expatriate communities.” Elizabeth Cheney, the daughter of the vice president and a top State Department official, is overseeing a program to spend $85 million on support for dissidents in Iran and to pay for anti-Iran propaganda. She has helped create a brand-new Office of Iranian Affairs at the State Department, and she reportedly supervises an office called the Iran-Syria Operations Group. As with Iraq, U.S. officials—realizing that U.N. support for an attack on Iran is nil—are talking openly about bypassing the world body and forging yet another “coalition of the willing” to confront Iran. And, of course, as with Iraq, there is the escalating rhetoric, the talk of “all options” being on the table, the news of Special Forces already operating in the country to foment civil conflict.
“If that is déjà vu, then so be it,” John Bolton, the neoconservative saber-rattler who represents the United States at the U.N., told reporters in March. “That is the course we are on.”
@Jonku – there are some mistakes in the GlobalResearch piece discussed in the comments at a DKos Diary. Anyhow, the buildup is there. For Iran’s Army/Air Force capabilities I have my doubt. After a week of bombing by the U.S. there will not be much left of them except unconventional tactics.
anna missed, what do you think the impications are that Azerbajan, Iran and Iraq are Shiite countries? Apart from the obvious coincidence that their homes are on top of a much coveted resource.
Will they be upset as further war is brought to them? What will they do.
What allegiances do the Shiites have, for example is Sadr of Iraq the most powerful leader? How does this relate to Palestine and the Hiz’b’allah (army of God) in Lebanon.
And Bernhard, you say that the Iranian Air Force and organized army could be destroyed by US-led bombing, what do you think about Global Research’s focus on the naval situation. Can Iran pull off the same success that the US “B team” did in a recent war game and knock out a much huger navy by use of fast attack boats armed with missiles and torpedoes?
My instinct cries out at this, what is the point of attacking Iran? I am prone to believing that the care and feeding of a military must also include a clear understanding of the defensive action, that a military should never be trained to be bloodthirsty. The only civilized use would be to defend lives not take them.
Posted by: jonku | Oct 6 2006 10:03 utc | 33
@jonku – Iran on navy – they can do some damage, but not mutch. The US would of course use that as an excuse for escalation.
what is the point of attacking Iran?
Easy answer to an easy question:
Cheney: “Because we can”
I respectfully disagree with b; behold:
Super War Preview
Everybody’s asking me what’ll happen if we attack Iran. To get a quick preview, just do what this guy in my eighth-grade class did: put a firecracker in your mouth, hold it between your front teeth, and light the fuse.
Also see,
U Sank My Carrier!
Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 6 2006 11:02 utc | 35
My point about what is the point of attacking Iran is also my point of why garrison Haiti, Iraq, Guantanamo.
What is the point of war? It makes no sense at all.
No sense. War is wrong, killing is wrong.
Posted by: jonku | Oct 6 2006 11:20 utc | 36
Re: the Iran thing.
We’ll see how it plays out, but I fail to see any of the propaganda gound work being done. I fail to see a rational sounding case being made at the popular level of why this is “necessary”. I fail to see the markets discounting the likelihood of $300 oil per barrel. To me this all looks like empty militaristic posturing preceding the inevitable “direct talks”.
The reality is that the Bushies can’t even get sanctions approved in the Security Council. The US attacked Iraq because it seemed easy with little downside. It attacked Iraq because “it could.” Here it can’t.
I understand that anti-war bloggers love revelling in horror-show fun, but how much of it is real? I don’t think much. I wouldn’t place higher odds than 5% on the nuking Iran scenario.
(By the way, 5% odds are still shockingly high for nuclear war).
Posted by: Guthman Bey | Oct 6 2006 11:44 utc | 37
The Iranian army has active forces of some 345,000 personnel, although a large percentage of this total are 18-month conscripts who generally receive limited training and have marginal military effectiveness.
As of 2000 it was estimated that only 40 of the 132 F-4Ds, 177 F-4Es and 16 RF-4E. Phantoms delivered (to Iran) before 1979 remained in service. At that time, approximately 45 of the 169 F-5E/Fs delivered are still flying, while perhaps 20 F-14A Tomcats of the 79 initially delivered were airworthy. Another 30 F-4s, 30 F-5s and 35 F-14s have been cannibalized for spare parts. One report suggested that the IRIAF can get no more than seven F-14s airborne at any one time. Iran claims to have fitted F-14s with I-Hawk missiles adapted to the air-to-air role.
The Iranian armed forces seem to have shifted to land-based missile air defence, according to GlobalSecurity,org, although they surely have been attempting to beef up their seemingly porous defences since being labelled evil.
There have been reports of some 10 F-8Ms “Finback”, 7 Tu-22Ms, 19 MIG-27s, and several MIG-31s (Russia’s most modern fighter aircraft, US$40 million ) being present in Iran, but these are not confirmed.
Posted by: gmac | Oct 6 2006 12:01 utc | 38
Unlikely Terrorists On No-Fly List
The “data dump” of names from the files of several government agencies, including the CIA, fed into the computer compiling the list contained many unlikely terrorists. These include Saddam Hussein, who is under arrest, Nabih Berri, Lebanon’s parliamentary speaker, and Evo Morales, the president of Bolivia. It also includes the names of 14 of the 19 dead 9/11 hijackers.
But the names of some of the most dangerous living terrorists or suspects are kept off the list.
The 11 British suspects recently charged with plotting to blow up airliners with liquid explosives were not on it, despite the fact they were under surveillance for more than a year.
The name of David Belfield who now goes by Dawud Sallahuddin, is not on the list, even though he assassinated someone in Washington, D.C., for former Iranian leader Ayatollah Khomeini. This is because the accuracy of the list meant to uphold security takes a back seat to overarching security needs: it could get into the wrong hands. “The government doesn’t want that information outside the government,” says Cathy Berrick, director of Homeland Security investigations for the General Accounting Office.
Not to make too big a point of it but…the mention above in the Mother Jones segment of Cheney’s daughter being a “top State Dept. official” reminded me.
The theory (unproved so far) is that some alien reptilian genetic matter is passed on. One could call it a breeding program. For more evidence look at the sons of Poppy and Barb.
Posted by: rapt | Oct 6 2006 13:27 utc | 40
Likely Terrorists not on No-Fly List (Partly in German).
Spreading cancer of the security state: Being under surveillance by certain agencies does in fact seem to constitute a form of protection, which puts people “off limits”.
I happened to come across this article this morning. The days when this type of thing jolted me are unfortunately long gone.
Posted by: Guthman Bey | Oct 6 2006 13:50 utc | 41
an update on RAW:
http://www.boingboing.net/2006/10/05/note_from_robert_ant.html
On behalf of my Dad, RAW (Bob), I want to throw my arms around you “like a circle ’round the sun!” for your loving graciousness in posting Bob’s need on your site. As of about 5 minutes ago, over $68,000 has come in. We are all overjoyed as it now means that we can continue to celebrate this phase of his life in the comfort of his own home, with all the care he needs, until his passing, honored by the loving support of so, so many wondrous folks. Just last week I was sick with heartache as we were faced with giving his notice and now, the world has simply and completely – transformed. Last night, he dictated a note that he wanted me to forward to you – below is the text. He is very weak, cannot sit up or eat on his own, and as he struggled with a whispery voice to express his gratitude, he broke into tears several times. How my heart swelled as I gazed at this man who has been both one of the most frustrating – and incredible – beings I have ever known. I would not be who I am today, had I not grown up with him. Much love, Christina Pearson
BOB’S NOTE:
Dear Friends, my God, what can I say. I am dumbfounded, flabbergasted, and totally stunned by the charity and compassion that has poured in here the last three days.
To steal from Jack Benny, “I do not deserve this, but I also have severe leg problems and I don’t deserve them either.”
Because he was a kind man as well as a funny one, Benny was beloved. I find it hard to believe that I am equally beloved and especially that I deserve such love.
Whoever you are, wherever you are, know that my love is with you.
You have all reminded me that despite George W. Bush and all his cohorts, there is still a lot of beautiful kindness in the world.
Blessings.
Robert Anton Wilson
Posted by: Juannie | Oct 6 2006 16:40 utc | 43
GB,
No need for a UN security council resolution(s) or even a coalition. They simply create a coup in Iraq, then blame the blowback on Iranian extremists, and retaliate with some as yet undisclosed response/even some holding action — while they go whole-hog on Sadrs militia.
Posted by: anna missed | Oct 6 2006 17:49 utc | 44
Alison Weir at Counterpunch : Just Another Mother Murdered
Almost no one bothered to report it. A search of the nation’s largest newspapers turned up nothing in USA Today, the Boston Globe, Boston Herald, Chicago Sun-Times, Atlanta Journal-Constitution, San Francisco Chronicle, Seattle Times, St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Houston Chronicle, Tampa Tribune, etc.
There was nothing on CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, PBS, NPR, Fox News. Nothing.
The LA Times, the Washington Post, the New York Times, and Associated Press each had one sentence, at most, telling about her. All three left out the details, the LA Times had her age significantly off, and the Washington Post reported that she had been killed by an Israeli tank shell.
It hadn’t been a tank shell that had killer her, according to witnesses. It had been bullets, multiple ones, fired up close.
Neighbors report that Israeli soldiers had been beating her husband because he wasn’t answering their questions. Foolishly or valiantly, how is one to say, the 35-year-old woman had interfered. She tried to explain that her husband was deaf, screamed at the soldiers that her husband couldn’t hear them and attempted to stop them from hitting him. So they shot her. Several times.
Her name was Itemad Ismail Abu Mo’ammar.
She didn’t die, though. That took longer. It required her life to flow out of her in the form of blood for several hours, as Israeli soldiers refused to allow an ambulance to transport her to help. Her husband and children could do nothing to save her.
Finally, after approximately five hours, an ambulance was allowed to take her to a hospital, where physicians were able to render one service: pronounce her dead, a few days before the commencement of Ramadan, a season of family gatherings much like the Christmas season for Americans. She left 11 children. None of this was in the Washington Post story, which had reported her death in one half of one sentence.
Her husband’s brother, who lived in the same house, was also killed. He was a 28-year-old farmer.
Why did this all happen? The family lived behind a resistance fighter wanted by Israel. They were simply “collateral damage” in a failed Israeli assassination/kidnapping operation.
All together, five Palestinians were killed that day. The other three were young shepherds killed in another area, two 15 years old and one 14, who seem to have simply been in the wrong place at the wrong time. Gaza.
None of this was reported in most of America’s news media, and so the American public never learned about a mother bleeding to death in front of her children, or young shepherds being blown to pieces. Apparently, it just wasn’t newsworthy.
Posted by: John Francis Lee | Oct 7 2006 1:02 utc | 45
USuk could create any one of a dozen different scenarios which would give them a feeble excuse to attack Iran, but they won’t. Although it may well be that the ‘swing’ in mud-slinging off the dems toward the rethugs is a little bit of pressure from a group concerned that Bushco, the Bliar and assorted cohorts may attack Iran, it is an unneccessary swing I don’t agree with Guthman Bey that often but this is one I do agree on.
The Iran thing is a neccessary distraction for BushCo, neccessary to prevent attention to the slaughter/cock-up/war-crime that is Iraq.
Look through this blog, the media, other blogs, the lead stories on the networks, and you see that at least as much coverage is being given to something that won’t happen than something awful that is happening.
Putting this in Labour Relations speak, USuk are running an ‘ambit claim’.
They threaten to make things much much worse, so people will feel content in talking USuk away from something that they never intended, but the people don’t know that.
As a consequence peaceable types are grateful when they should be pissed. So grateful that they regard the destruction of Mesopotamia as a neccessary evil, realpolitik in action, something that we just have to swallow for the greater good.
Sure the Iranian thing may not have started out that way, and in a couple of years/election cycles whatever; it may be cranked up again, which is another reason for the assholes to be keeping up the bullshit machine. Right at the moment though it is a non-starter and is likely to remain so as long as the BushCo machine holds the amerikan executive reins.
Peace-mongers are falling for a ploy when they allow themselves to be cranked by this.
There are a multitude of reasons for the ploy, aside from the distraction off Iraq. Such as the way the debate is being conducted in a room full of extraneous noise which means that a number of facts, in particular the fact that Iran is not in breach of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty in any way, shape or form, that will have been ‘spun’ out of the debate in 2008 or 2010 when USuk and Co decide to have a serious crack at this.
The big worry for those of us in the Pacific, most of whom really don’t want anything to do with the thermo-nuclear devices those in the western hemisphere appear to be fascinated with, is that Pyongyang may go a step too far in it’s attempts to show up USuk duplicity.
The wannabe Stalin has been doing wonderful things by rattling his enriched uranium everytime the assholes have been burbling shit about the danger that Iran could pose, but if he actually does test a nuclear weapon all hell will break loose in the Pacific.
The new facist in charge of Japan comes from the Nipponese clique who have always regarded Korea as a storage tank for unter-mensch whose role in life is to provide sex toys, dishwashers and cannon-fodder for the divine beings populating Japan, and he will make the constitutional changes neccessary to get Japan into the nuclear arms race.
South Korea will feel compelled to do the same and so the disease will spread through the regional powers until the Islamic states such as Malaysia and Indonesia will have no choice but to risk the wrath of the xtian and animist cultures, and create their own nuclear arsenal.
The USuk threats on Iran are fuckin evil and destructive but we need to be sceptical of the immediacy of them.
Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 7 2006 1:35 utc | 46
The Iran thing is a neccessary distraction for BushCo,
i disagree. policy consensus here is forcing either acceptable diplomatic resolution or war. is there a meaningful dissent in american foreign policy accommodating a nuclear iran? idon’t see it. i’m not saying it doesn’t exist, but i can’t find it.
also, there’s not the slightest chance u.s. will leave iraq. that would be a disaster, as much or more than soviet defeat in afghanistan. because of this, i can’t imagine how u.s. can avoid conflict w/ iran.
Posted by: slothrop | Oct 7 2006 1:54 utc | 47
If the guys doing risk-analysis & war-gaming ever become compromised like other sections appear to have been, then we could be in a big heap of trouble.
Otherwise, they are probably reporting back that war/conflict with Iran (caveat – at this time) would be worse than insane.
Posted by: jony_b_cool | Oct 7 2006 3:06 utc | 48
Also, Bob Woodwards new book “states of denial” has’nt received much attention here. Theres some very serious stuff in it, some or all of which would probably have surfaced eventually. But for now, it adds important pieces to the puzzle.
Posted by: jony_b_cool | Oct 7 2006 3:34 utc | 49
@jony_b_cool at this time is precisely the issue. When pressured even Rice concedes that Iran is 8 to 10 years away from a working device, if that is Iran’s intent which is a lot more debateable than Rice and co imply.
Of course pulling out of Iraq is a no-no Slothrop, and that is precisely why BushCo maintain the Iran attack fiction, peaceable types are worrying about that rather than putting every ounce of available energy into stopping the Iraq murders. The pretence of being down on Iran will also be keeping Iran from getting too heavily involved in Iraq.
It won’t keep them out, nothing could as no nation could ignore anything like what is going on in Iraq, right next door to themselves, but the continual harassment from the amerikan assholes will be keeping Iran on the side of caution in what they do get up to in Iraq.
Meaning their posture will tend toward defensiveness rather than annexation.
As jony_b_cool has said above and as others of us have intoned as nauseum; there is no way that the US could attack Iraq and win. Even if they flattened the nation with their nuclear arsenal, the rest of the planet would not rest until amerika had been completely subjugated. That wouldn’t be a matter of opinion it would be essential, the rest of us simply couldn’t run the risk that we may be next.
The rethugs learn by their mistakes. Far too late to be any use but they do learn, hence the ridiculous emphasis put on increased communications traffic between suspected Islamic warriors, the pre-911 warnings that they chose to ignore then are being paid too much heed now.
Real stable-door stuff same as the ridiculous airport security, or the feud between the EU and amerika last week over passports.
They won’t be going into Iran in the forseeable future because their Iraqi fuck-up will have them over-emphasising exit-strategy. For the next decade or so it is unlikely that Amerika will get involved in any large scale military adventures which don’t have a clearly defined and ‘do-able’ exit strategy.
I realise it may make some on the ‘left’ feel better to imagine that the rethugs are truly ‘masters-of the-universe’ who believe they can achieve anything, but the reality is that few amongst the rethugs , and this includes the BushCo pricks, feel anything other than an impotent humiliation when they consider the fuck-up they have made in Iraq.
They will never openly admit but their every act, none more so than the incompetence with which they have handled the Foley affair, reeks of the stench of the loser.
Posted by: Debs is dead | Oct 7 2006 4:03 utc | 50
Condis middleeast trip being seen by others (& growing)as an Anti-Iranian escapade, under cover of an Israel/Palestinian initiative.
Posted by: anna missed | Oct 7 2006 4:52 utc | 51
I dunno Did, saw an interesting comment in Coles blog that postulated, that if the thugs were sure that they were going to lose in Nov, they might see it as a last chance to punish Iran – and – force the democrats to pick up the pieces, ie, “to finish the job” themselves.
Posted by: anna missed | Oct 7 2006 5:03 utc | 52
@Juannie
Thanks for the bob info Juannie, that warms my heart. Such a truly wonderful thing, such a truly wonderful man. The world (my world) is better because of him.
Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 7 2006 6:53 utc | 53