Moon of Alabama Brecht quote
October 3, 2006
NoKo Nuke

Just in time for the US election, North Korea announces a nuke test.

"What has this Republican Congress, what has this President done to make us save?"
Cand. Whoever – (D.Anywhere)

Good question …

The NoKo’s did not give any date, so this may just be a sham. They have never done a test before and to announce one that eventually could fissle is quite dangerous. The possible loss of determent could actually invite some unforeseen action.

Now Bolton, in his last days as U.S. ambassador to the UN, will huff and puff, but the Chinese will not be impressed. If this has not been coordinated with them beforehand, they will be a bit pissed with Kim Jong Il, but grin at the effects the announcement will have elsewhere.

The Japanese will go ape-shit. Their right wing new Prime Minister Shinzo Abe might even want to show that he is a real man and start something dumb. He should hold his breath and consult some history books. It was Japan that recently occupied Korea for some 35 years, not the other way around.

As for the South Koreans, I guess they will not care too much. They have only one fear: an uncontrolled breakdown of the North Korean dictatorship leaving them with the huge bill for cleaning up the mess.

To the U.S. people nukes in NoKo are of course no danger at all. Even if those guys would have the means to deliver them, which they have not, they know the suicidal danger of a first strike.

But a nuke test in NoKo complicates the U.S. calculation for any action against Iran. There has been some cooperation between those two countries on missile technology. Could the cooperation widen to something else, if an attack on Iran were imminant? And how would a nuklear North Korea play a role in the long term plans against China?

Some interesting question, but only the very first one is really of interests to the paranoid U.S. electorate.

If the Dems play this one smart, it could be a big point for them on the national security merit scoreboard. But then …

Comments

O’ that and or this: 20,000 Sailors Go To War – Massive US and Allied Naval Deployment
I’m Cuckoo for CoCo Puffs, or chessy poofs…

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Oct 3 2006 13:01 utc | 1

Sorry, but King George doesn’t do nuance, and the Democrats don’t do self-defense.
The only trick they know is Roll Over.
One thing nobody is mentioning is Pakistan. They’ve recently made full peace with the Taliban, and all their Pushtun pals. The Pakistani Secret Services are funding and funneling well trained and well armed jihadis into Afghanistan to directly attack the foreign infidels.
Since it is now crystal clear that we are going to attack Iran and Syria and probably Lebanon sometime after the end of this month, why isn’t anybody worried about Pakistan supplying a nuclear device to the Iranians for their use in defending the region?
By the way, Pervez Musharraf was caught singing in the shower this morning by an enterprising reporter. He was workin’ that old country tune, “Gimme Two Steps Toward the Door.”
I guess he’s going to be retiring to his villa in Nice about a month from now, when the shooting starts.
If he gets those two steps toward the door, that is.

Posted by: Antifa | Oct 3 2006 13:16 utc | 2

Is it three steps you’re thinking of?

Posted by: gmac | Oct 3 2006 17:12 utc | 3

Posted this link in the open thread, but Bernhard is right. Shinzo Abe will go absolutely monkeyshit over this. During the craptastic taepodong non-event a few months ago, he was on the verge of declaring an invasion of NoKo and South Korea’s President Rho had to slap him back into place. Rho has lost a hell of a lot of credibility with his party (long damned story) and will not be able to defuse the Japanese militarism with diplomacy like that a second time. This has the potential to get all kinds of interesting…

Posted by: Monolycus | Oct 3 2006 17:44 utc | 4

The U.S. sends two task groups to the Persian Gulf… this means North Korea has more wiggle room and they are wiggling it…
The question is will there or wont there be a new war in the Persian Gulf?
Two Points:
ONE: There are some deep secrets burried in the executive branch. They don’t want to surrender supena power to the Dems, that is more frightening to Bush than to start a war.
TWO: The price of oil plummeting in the last two months has two purposes – lower prices at the pump makes the electorate more foregiving at the poles – but also, 40% or so of the worlds oil flows through the straites of Hormuz. They are simply dumping as much supply out into the world’s inventory so that after the war starts, the spike in prices afterwords wont be too high – and that there will be enough oil to go around.
All of this is absurd. Liquified coal can be produced for under a dollar and we have more coal than the saudis have oil. The problem is that you have to build a factory to make the stuff and that cost $1.5 billion. On the other hand the existing cost of the existing wars are $500 billion – so instead of invading Iraq, we could have built 350 liquifide coal plants and called it a day. Then all that money flowing to the middle east would be flowing to our middlewest.

Posted by: bubbles | Oct 3 2006 18:55 utc | 5

“Then all that money flowing to the middle east would be flowing to our middlewest.”
Bush sure screwed the ‘Red Staters’ didn’t he?

Posted by: pb | Oct 3 2006 19:07 utc | 6

Antifa–nicely said. You simply cannot be as rabidly anti-Muslim as the US has been the last six years and hold Pakistan in your orbit. The Pakistani government knows which way the wind is blowing, and if they don’t bend with it it will blow them right out of office in the form of a coup or insurrection. Well they understand this, and are already getting it right by re-aligning with the Pushtans. Face it: The northwest frontier of Pakistan has never been “under control”–that’s why the Brits called it the “Northwest Frontier”–and no sane government foments revolution within its OWN borders.
As for the Pakistani bomb–well, any sane person saw this coming decades ago. And a sane government would not be provoking the Pakistanis into mortal opposition. There’s just no upside. It occured to me a year ago that the Iranians might get a bomb from Pakistan. The only obstacle is the Shi’ite/Sunni antagonism. The US is unfortunately working overtime to overcome that. Perhaps this one US initiative will have success.
bubbles and pb–Coal is the most exploitative industry on the planet. Peabody had never learned the art of trickle-down. In coal country, all money trickles up. Also, it is an environmental disaster. If Devilstower were here, he could discribe how coal can be mined without catastophe, but he would probably agree that without real supervision, this does not happen. A favorite approach right now is “mountain-topping” in which the layers above the coal seam are tossed into the nearest valley and the coal is stripped out. The result is the watershed downstream is devastated by toxic chemicals. The US may yet go for coal. This is not shaping up as a good time to be living in the Ohio River Valley.

Posted by: Gaianne | Oct 3 2006 23:11 utc | 7

Said things here might get interesting, and they are incrementally leaning more towards that direction daily. I suppose it was inevitable now that Junichiro Koizumi has been replaced by a guy who actually makes Kim Jung-Il look pretty damned moderate. So Abe and China’s Hu Jintao are the guys on the side of “peace” here? That screams “double-standard” as much as a heavily-armed US marine handing out beanie babies… or Keith Richard doing anti-drug PSA’s.
Still no real word on the streets of SoKo about NoKo. Some shots were fired the other day into the DMZ at five North Koreans (who were apparently on a fishing trip… no casualties, although they might well have been seriously mortified), but everyone here in the south is still treating the north like that distant cousin they don’t like to talk about. We’ll see.

Posted by: Monolycus | Oct 8 2006 17:56 utc | 8