Why This Report? – Moon of Alabama

August 24, 2006

Why This Report?

So why did they release this stuff?

Laura Rozen yesterday linked to a report (PDF, 700kb) titled "Recognizing Iran as a Strategic Threat: An Intelligence Challenge for the United States."

The report was announced to have been written by staff of the House Permanent Select Committee On Intelligence – Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy. It turns out, as Laura documents and the Washington post confirms, that it was written by Frederick Fleitz, a former CIA officer who had been a special assistant to neocon John Bolton and is still in the administration. Fleitz has to be seen as a Cheney front man. He might have had some role in the Plame fiasko.

I did read the report yesterday and struggled to understand why it has been released.

On page 1 is a picture of Ahmadinejad behind a lectern that has "The World Without Zionism" pinned to its front. On page 3 are three Ahmedinejad quotes. One refers to the state of Israel, one to the Holocaust as a justification for Israels existence and one to nuclear technology. Page 15 shows a map with the reach of Iran’s ballistic rockets, demonstrating that the existing rockets barely cover the Middle East (the center of the firing range is Kuwait and the outer 4,000 mile circle is of a rocket that does not exist.)

To an open minded reader, the pamphlet does hint to but does not present any fact of Iran being a danger to the U.S.. It seems focused on Iran as an assumed danger to Israel. It critizises the U.S. intelligence community for not coming up with any proof that any of the presented dangers are real.

The purpose of the document, as described by the New York Times and Washington Post, is said to be to demonstrate that Iran is an urgent threat and to castigate the intelligence services for not coming to the same conclusion.

This is the same thing that was done before the War on Iraq, but then the grilling was done in private with Cheney visiting the CIA and intimidating agents in private meetings. The propaganda part was done under cover of anonymity by administration chills through outlets like NYT’s Judith Miller and others and was based on stove piped false intelligence from the DoD’s special office. Later the CIA had to take the blame for the bullshit intelligence conclusions on Iraq’s WMD.

But to now blame the intelligence services for not being aggressive enough in coming to frightening conclusions on Iran is counterproductive. This blame guarantees that any future CIA claim of a danger from Iran will not be taken seriously. If the CIA tomorrow says any Iran nuke is an imminent threat (as it and others repeatedly did over the years), everybody will point to the pressure applied through this document and nobody will believe the reports, whether they are right or wrong.

On the propaganda side the report cites various unclassified ambiguous tidbits on possible Iranian WMDs and then blows at the intelligence services for not having aggressively confirmed these reports.

How does this help the neocon case? It just emphasizes that the facts presented are no such thing and that there is not a bit of really clear evidence the warmongers can build on.

So, again, why has this been published?

Are the neocons so far out of their mind that they fail to see how this hurts their case? Or are they right to assume that this will frighten anyone but me?

What is their reasoning behind this?

Posted by b on August 24, 2006 at 19:42 UTC | Permalink

Comments

Anything is still possible in the USA because corporate media continues to not to divulge that the USA is lead by psychotic true believers.
The one big difference between 2003 and now is that there isn’t a US army poised to invade a sovereign country. The true believers continue to spew forth their views of the world but the only thing the USA can do is bomb Iran. But, the dry run in Lebanon blew up in their faces.
It is clear now, even to conservative realists; to invade a sovereign country requires tremendous costs in money and lives. This is why support for the Iranian Bombing Campaign is playing out as a tragic farce. All but the most delusional see that attacking Iran will end with either a humiliated USA or a nuclear exchange.

Posted by: Jim S | Aug 24 2006 20:02 utc | 1

Why was this report released? To raise the fear factor. And then come up with another “red herring” that “proves” their case on Iran. The professionals in CIA and DoD are not playing ball. They can’t intimidate them as easily this time around. These career folks are no dummies. They realize there is an even chance that the Democrats may win a majority in the house and don’t wont to be hauled up under subpoena and made the fall guys. So the only thing the Cheneyites have left is the media. They’ll use it to play up the fear card sufficiently in the hope they may be able to hold up the Dems in the fall and get on with their wars. Which may not be that difficult since the Dems have battered wife syndrome. Notice the courage with which they are handling Lieberman. How would Rove have dealt with this if the tables were turned? Also notice how the Repubs knocked out the favored candidate in their primary in Alaska and not a peep in the media.

Posted by: ab initio | Aug 24 2006 20:24 utc | 2

Trying to be completely divorced from my overall passions in the whole ‘attacking people because…(fill in the excuse)”.
Bombing the crap out of that country will be a PR disaster beyond belief. Obviously the supporters of this kind of action really dont care but I still have to shake my head while trying to wrap my head around how ANYONE can see ANY good in bashing up the middle east in general, much less a state that gets really upity anytime someone sneezes in their general direction.

Posted by: bkieft | Aug 24 2006 20:54 utc | 3

— There is no organized “Democratic Party” anymore. There are individual Democrats that make their own decisions about what they will do and how they will make any stand. It isn’t just a “battered wife” thing — though that may be partially the case. Mostly, they are generally supportive of the Republican agenda but want to put a thin veneer of seeming to be a party of opposition to keep their base placated — not satisfied — placated –. They want to keep the base from heading pel mel for the exits into a new party so they throw them a verbal bone now and then but actually do nothing or as close to nothing as possible. Its so obvious, only those who will not see any longer believe that there is any hope for change this November. They are just helping the Republicans “run out the clock” till November and at the end, poof, the Republicans will still call the shots.

Posted by: Elie | Aug 24 2006 20:56 utc | 4

Back on topic:
“how ANYONE can see ANY good in bashing up the middle east in general, much less a state that gets really upity anytime someone sneezes in their general direction.”
Perhaps if there is so much mud in the water and enough chaos, blame can be diverted or forgotten as people have to get about cleaning up the mess. Diversionary therefore. One more piece of information in a huge data dump. Keep the dump going and drown any inquiry in reams of information, reports, data, — like squid ink — while the squid gets away…

Posted by: Elie | Aug 24 2006 21:16 utc | 5

Plus of course the question implies a logical reaction to the pamphlet is likely. I don’t know how anyone can even consider that an option in a nation where the majority of the people believe the words in an ancient book of superstition, myth and gossip. We’re talking about a people who believe that if dinosaurs actually existed, they must have been on earth at the same time as man because the world was created 6,000 years ago. All the proof that is required to verify that outlandish supposition in the face of mountains of evidence to the contrary is “That the bible says it’s so”.
It amazes me that people imagine that things can be changed through reasoned debate, those days are long past.

Posted by: Debs is dead | Aug 24 2006 22:01 utc | 6

Correct Did,
what does it say about a countries future that does ideological things like this:
Evolution No Longer Eligible For Federal Funding
In one of those quiet, behind-closed-doors-moments, right wing extremists in the White House have secretly removed Evolution, the single organizing principle of biology, as a graduate study program eligible for Federal funding.

Evolutionary biology has vanished from the list of acceptable fields of study for recipients of a federal education grant for low-income college students.

That’s the way you do it (in a theocracy or police state), behind closed doors, no public scrutiny or discussion. Slid under the door on the sly, without discourse or debate, as in Oilwell’s 1984, where the books were just changed.
It must have always been that way!

Posted by: Uncle $cam | Aug 24 2006 22:57 utc | 7

“What is their reasoning behind this?”
They’ve got to get the message out. It seems that the ‘serious’ media is not going to follow the bouncing aluminium tubes this time, at least not yet. So work through the HIC to publish something that can then be referenced in follow-up articles. Soon, they hope, the press will get their heads nodding in agreement. This is just one of many drippings that will come from neo-con controlled sources. Will it work? Well, why not.

Posted by: Dick Durata | Aug 25 2006 2:02 utc | 8

Their reasoning is that most Americans can’t reason. If 50% can believe that Saddam had WMD in spite of all the evidence to the contrary, just think how many will believe the lies about Iran with much less proof to the contrary. The war party propaganda apparatus will generate this crap, their media allies will distribute it with liberal doses of hysteria and a large percentage of the clueless American public will obediantly pee in their pants. P.T. Barnum had nothing on these guys. It’s almost Sept and the circus (new product) is coming to town. Ahmadinejad is the Wild Man of Borneo, Hezballah are savage, man eating pygmies, Israel a plucky, daredevil motorcycle rider defying the odds, etc, etc. The rubes love this stuff, not reasoning. Step right up, folks….

Posted by: lonesomeG | Aug 25 2006 3:21 utc | 9

Bomblettes

Posted by: biklett | Aug 25 2006 3:22 utc | 10

The PDF in question is unquestionably suitable for fishwrap.
It’s long on hints, and almost devoid of facts. That this is referred to as “intelligence” is easily its most farcical aspect.
But consider it the other way around. Not an effort to whip up a whoopass war, but mere due diligence.
Consider that Cheney and Addington, knowing full well that the war on Iran is a guaranteed go, next turn their attention to covering their asses.
As in, “How will this look afterwards? If hard questions are asked, and we cannot point to CIA reports backing our choice for war, we need something. Something, fer Chrissake!”
This PDF is something.

Posted by: Antifa | Aug 25 2006 3:46 utc | 11

Anything goes, I guess.
They realize what an immense fupuck they’ve made of their ME involvement, and think that they can fix everything with a “bold stroke”.
Iran was supposed to fall by itself, in a popular uprising incited by the fall of Saddam’s statue. That’s what they had decided, back at their think-tank.
Ever since, nothing’s gone according to plan, apparently. The Iranians and Chinese have something interesting in common, planning for the long-term, and letting the opponent do all the work. It must be quite a surprise to them that Bush, the fratboy cheerleader lazyman, would be so tireless in his efforts to give Iran what it couldn’t get from Saddam.

Posted by: SteinL | Aug 25 2006 6:47 utc | 12

I don’t see how this can used as a justification for war. Though there are a lot of accusations contained within….it clearly states the US doesn’t have enough information to make a sound decision.
It’s certianly a curious document. The first few pages…the picture of “A Zionest Free World” and the quotes from the Irianian President make it look in the beginning that it’s case for war…..but then as soon as page five…..they’re admitting they don’t anymore about Iran than they did Iraq.
shrugges??
Maybe they’re depending on “the base” not reading anything past page four.

Posted by: Mr Avid | Aug 25 2006 8:42 utc | 13

Maybe they’re depending on “the base” not reading anything past page four.
They count on the base not to read at all. They count on the press not to read past page four.

Posted by: mats | Aug 25 2006 12:58 utc | 14

To add to mats post; Mainstream Media has completely sold out to corporate greed and government propaganda. ABC broadcast Rare Visit to al Qaeda Stronghold in Iraq. The headline and article are agitprop lies. The broadcast is intended to steel Americans for the never ending battle against Al Qaeda. But, now all Muslims; Iraqis, Sunnis, Baathists, Saudis, Shiites, Persians, are Al Qaeda. The Iranian Bombing Campaign is not far away.

Posted by: Jim S | Aug 25 2006 15:12 utc | 15

The link between religious fundamentalism, not believing in evolution, and attacks on Iran and reasoned debated about that is tenuous at best.
The French are very poor at math (except the elites, who are damn good) and some large % doesn’t know how much a billion is, or what .1 dl might mean. Therefore it might be judged that they could not understand the number of Revolutionary Guards Iran has, or what its oil reserves are, and thus might consider invading Iran a wonderful or conversely a hopeless project, and certainly couldn’t debate it rationally.
Turkey is second on the list of ‘developed’ countries, after the US, for disbelief in evolution. From the few texts I have read and the conversations I have had with Muslims, I understand that for them the issue is not at all clear cut. Anyway, that does not matter much, as the point is that a particular, and well-chosen, anti-Science (Darwin) stance has not been made a political issue, a belief which confers a badge of belonging, and can, or should, be fought for.
Poorly ‘educated’ (don’t much like this term…) people in the US, in France, and Turkey will follow their leaders and believe their lies. They are manipulated by the media. Nowhere is this so evident as in the US – it is literally mind boggling.
What are people supposed to believe when their TV screens and newspapers blare and insist that ….such-and-such is a threat?
Should they wake up and say Bush is a liar, that Iran oil peaked long ago and they need nukulear electricity, Islamic terrorism doesn’t exist, 9/11 was in part organised, or at least covered up, faked, slanted, by the mainstream media?
Progressives seem to think that they can dictate which of these different deceptions Joe Public should accept; question; contest; debate, or vigorously denounce. Taxing people with being incapable of selective disbelief is arrogant and cheap.
Nothing to do with evolution…

Posted by: Noirette | Aug 25 2006 17:12 utc | 16

Take a look at these outstanding pictures of Teheran and realize that this is what Bush&Co want to destroy. (Warning: there are a lot of pics and the page will take a long time to load).
From the very useful blog Irand Information Agency.

Posted by: Iowan | Aug 25 2006 18:13 utc | 17

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