WB: The Meat Grinder – Moon of Alabama

August 1, 2006

WB: The Meat Grinder

Billmon:

My guess is that in the end, if Uncle Sam really wants some "peacekeepers" to help Uncle Ehud out of his jam, he’s going to have to provide them himself, which essentially would mean making Israel’s war our war — literally. First Afghanistan, then Iraq, now Lebanon? Someone needs to explain to Shrub the concept of the tar baby.

We’ll see how it goes, I guess — how much time, how much blood, how much insanity, how many lies. I said a few days ago I thought the Israelis would probably be happy just to return to the status quo ante (meaning before Hizbullah’s cross-border raid.) It appears I was wrong. Instead they want to go back to the status quo pre ante — that is, all the way back to their bloody, 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon, only this time against an even more experienced, more determined and better armed guerrilla resistance force.

The Meat Grinder

Posted by b on August 1, 2006 at 17:59 UTC | Permalink

Comments

As always, Billmon delivers the most intelligent and cogent analysis of the situation I’ve seen. Under the circumstances, it would seem insane for anyone to be willing to put troops into Southern Lebanon, especially the United States. We should not, however, forget what is really the most important thing to Shrub and Turdblossom — politics. The Republicans absolutely have to hold on to Congress in the midterm elections — otherwise, some of them are going to end up seriously in jail. The Republicans can’t run on the economy (highest inflation in 11 years, falling wages, and declining house prices, anyone?), and we’re still waiting for the Iraqis to start erecting those statues of W in town squares around the country. What’s a poor political party to do?
The answer is to defend Israel, of course. The US doesn’t have the troops to go into Southern Lebanon, and placing US troops in that situation would make us even more hated than we already are (if that’s possible). But — American troops protecting Israeli children from terrorist rockets! How can anyone criticize that? The Dems would have no choice but to dutifully fall into line, robbing them of any ability to use the Iraq disaster as a debating point. As all recent events indicate, the Democrats are if anything even more eager than the Republicans to pledge their undying devotion to Israel.
5000 American troops in Lebanon is a small price to pay for keeping Congress Republican. Heck, there must be a couple of National Guard units that haven’t been rotated through the Middle East in the last 6 months or so. And if the shit blows the fan over, who cares, as long as it happens after November?
I have the sinking feeling that this is going to get uglier than even I thought possible.

Posted by: Aigin | Aug 1 2006 18:20 utc | 1

billmon, have you seen this analysis by Immanuel Wallerstein: http://www.binghamton.edu/fbc/190en.htm
excerpt:
“What the Israeli governments do not realize is that neither Hamas nor Hezbollah need Israel. It is Israel that needs them, and needs them desperately.”

Posted by: a-train | Aug 1 2006 18:22 utc | 2

Coincidently Fisk: Into the Meat Grinder – A NATO Force Would Benefit Israel, Not Lebanon

this time, we will watch a NATO-led army’s disintegration at close quarters. South-west Afghanistan and Iraq are now so dangerous that no reporters can witness the carnage being perpetrated as a result of our hopeless projects. But, in Lebanon, it’s going to be live-time coverage of a disaster that can only be avoided by the one diplomatic step Messrs Bush and Blair refuse to take: by talking to Damascus.
So when this latest foreign army arrives, count the days, or hours, to the first attack upon it. Then we’ll hear all over again that we are fighting evil, that “they”–Hizbollah or Palestinian guerrillas, or anyone else planning to destroy “our” army–hate our values; and then, of course, we’ll be told that this is all part of the “War on Terror”–the nonsense which Israel has been peddling.

Posted by: b | Aug 1 2006 18:30 utc | 3

Yes, nobody but Billmon can combine such prescient analysis with such a rapier wit. (Always need to remember to keep a few nappies at hand when reading a Billmon post, because neither the laptop, nor the screen are ever safe from “terrorist” outbursts.)
@Wallerstein:
Nobody understands the nature, and expendability, of client states better than Wallerstein. After all, he is the author of World Systems Theory. For those who would like to take the long view of history, he is excellent.
P.S. Can somebody please work up a Photoshop of Condi in a Maytag uniform?

Posted by: Malooga | Aug 1 2006 18:49 utc | 4

Antiwar.com has just put up a special page covering Israel/Lebanon, including the most up to date news links and viewpoints:
Antiwar Lebanon page

Posted by: Ensley | Aug 1 2006 19:02 utc | 5

If it looks like an invasion, quacks like an invasion, then it is an invasion.
With the people gone or killed (South Leb, to the Litani) there will be not too much fighting going on. The remnants of terrorist ‘dregs’ will create a consequent amount of nuisance, and kill many people, as happens in Iraq or Afgh. If things go that way… if they do:
The situation on the ground will be: ordinary people cannot live there, business cannot be carried out, it is chaos…
There, there, The Forces of Freedom will fighting the Forces of Darkness and it will be a Long War, no wins in sight.
Some reluctant new-Coalition troops will be scraped together, frightened, paid, corerced, Gvmts sending some soldiers.
What other countries will no do any longer though, is pay. (Except the running expenses for those troops, etc.)
Saudi paid for Operation Desert Storm (Gulf war I; the US presented them with a bill for 60 billion, that was it, they had to pay, had, then, to cut free education and health which they previously paid for, creating millions of disaffected male youths) and the International Community paid for Operation Enduring Freedom (Afgh.) – Japan was the biggest contributor I recall. France, second.
No refs on the net for the former, afaik, and it is not solid info, but for the latter, smart and LONG search will turn the numbers up.
As the US cannot publically bruit about such facts, other countries can manage passive resistance by offering to send soldiers but refusing to pay. The US cannot object in public and only make a big PR deal about Poland or whomever joining the fight for freedom. That will happen now again in Lebanon, the first time was Iraq. The US tax payer has paid for Iraq, in full.
Take it as rumors, or the kind of things that Swiss bankers talk about – what people in Europe are saying – even just on that score, it is interesting.
The idea is to make the US pay for its folly.
Upshot: the US will do the occupation. Or maybe, maybe, NATO.

Posted by: Noirette | Aug 1 2006 19:13 utc | 6

There is no reason to belive that the US millitary has any interest whatsoever in a mission to secure the S. Lebanon border with Israel and Syria.
On the other hand, a recent quote from Nasrallah suggest he believes Israel would back down but for pressure from the USA. And we can assume that this reflects his reading of Israels options on the field. Israel lowers its expectations, and a deal might be possible with some mediation from Mubarak.
Such deal will not include US troops.

Posted by: jony_b_cool | Aug 1 2006 19:33 utc | 7

@Noirette – your GW-numbers are wrong: How much did the Gulf War cost the US

Posted by: b | Aug 1 2006 20:46 utc | 8

So, the Israelis seem to be landing in Baalbek. What the heck else would they be landing there except for a confrontation with Syria? Somebody who understands logistics better than I do please discuss.

Posted by: 2nd anonymous | Aug 1 2006 21:17 utc | 9

Interesting story in Le Figaro (in French), a Paris daily. According to the story, the French Ministry of Defense is “not planning but thinking” about the deployment of a military force in Lebanon. According to the report, the French are under heavy pressure from Washington and London to lead the new “robust” force in south Lebanon. As the “leader nation” in this force, the French deployment would be large – 5,000 to 6,000 strong out of a 20,000 contingent. The force would have to patrol a 50-km buffer zone and enforce a no-fly zone (that’s something new) and would have “robust” rules of engagement.
According to a colonel interviewed by the paper “There is no way we would actively disarm Hezbollah” («Il n’est pas question de prévoir un désarmement actif du Hezbollah», but the new force would need to be able to discourage anyone to take a potshot accross the border.

Posted by: ClaudeB | Aug 1 2006 21:29 utc | 10

2nd
watching al arabiya, al jazeera & algerian tv – the full picture of the destruction is beyond belief, absolutely beyond belief
south lebanon has ceased to exist
the footage is so similar to the fleeing russian populations in the opening moments of barbarossa – i am not being metaphoric – it is exactly how it looks
& the damage , the total damage done to the villages & towns are on the same order as that of the invading german armies
that is to say – excessive force, total damage to everything – homes, hospitals, stores – everything
– there is nothing but broken bricks & dead bodies buried underneath & on cnn they are talking about ‘normality’
who are the fucking savages here
who are the barbarians in this case
who is it who is without culture & civilisation
one side holds power & force & that is all that they have
ô yes they have their lies & they have armies of men & women prepared to distribute & amplify those lies –
there are people who have picked up the pen microphone & camera who use it every bit as viciouslly, every bit as destructive & they have no soul, no soul at all
they are the ghosts of the civil dead
they are those whose shame ought to wash the sins of this premier decade of the new era
2nd – i believe they will attack syria because it is easy – because they can repeat the carnage that they have created throughout lebanon without any real threat from syrian force – it would be a very idf form of war
the idf are monsters & of that there can be little argument & what they are doing is being done with legislative bodies all over the world – not caring at all
& again it is the same – in operation barbarrossa – the peoples outside were unconcerned hoping that russia would be destroyed by this army who is acting in defence of christian civilisation
& that is the american argument in short – that the attack on the arab people is an act in defence of christian civilisation
if you are in a position to see arab tv – watch watch watch & never forget

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 1 2006 22:02 utc | 11

but the new force would need to be able to discourage anyone to take a potshot accross the border
From both directions? Will they have the power to go into Israel and “arrest” Israelis who are shooting across the border at Lebanon, or will they just duck down, scratch their balls and have a smoke until the shooting from Israel stops? Sounds like this just another one-sided pile of shit.

Posted by: Ensley | Aug 1 2006 22:12 utc | 12

2nd
it seems the israelis have just hit a hospital. that they have takne persons in a hospital & a hospital which is staffed by iranians – this is from cnn so it could be a crock of shit
just an hour ago they had about ten minutes of an interview with fidel
he is an ordinary man which events have made into an extraordinary one & an exemplary like nelson mandela
& they both, in the en, speak humanely & with good sense so far from the vulgarity that is taken for statesmanship these days
& i agree with ck – blair is one piece of creepy work – something not stable inside that skin
cloned poster- a question – is itv – a cable or is it a subcontractor of services because the only genuine reports in the english language appear to come from itv

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 1 2006 22:44 utc | 13

The Israelis are doing this with all the dash and elan of a man sticking his hand down a garbage disposal — one that has already claimed a couple of fingers.

– Billmon, The Meat Grinder
Actually Billmon, I think that the situation is more like a man sticking his hands down the garbage disposal to retrieve his two already severed fingers.

Posted by: Bubb Rubb | Aug 1 2006 22:53 utc | 14

Every time I think about this conflict I keep reevaluating the situation. At first I thought, along with Billmon, that the US neocon warmongers were pushing the Israelis behind the scenes further than they wanted to go. On second thought, I think I have to reevaluate my position 100%. After looking at the evidence, with Israel’s insistence that they will not stop until an international force that is patrolling S. Lebanon. In another comment thread, I said ths regarding the Israeli position regarding a ceasefire and the international peace keepers

When even the U.S. will not send troops and no other country will untill a cessation of fighting has started, this is clearly an unclever ploy by the Israeli’s to continue killing Lebonese and trying to shift blame for the deaths on the International Community.

Well now, I believe the same is true about widening the war to Syria. I think that the Israeli’s are plugging these stories into the media so that everyone will assume that a wider Syrian conlfict should be blamed on them and not their own warmongering generals looking for hero status and to follow Sharon, Barak and other generals before them into the PM’s office.
I just have to ask myself, how is it in this conflict that Israel is managing to try to portray everything like it is someone elses fault? It is a trend and I think if we stay with that trend in the Israeli position, the truth becomes much more clear.

Posted by: Bubb Rubb | Aug 1 2006 23:03 utc | 15

I just have to ask myself, how is it in this conflict that Israel is managing to try to portray everything like it is someone elses fault?
Because they can. A proven technic and they are masters by now.

Posted by: b | Aug 1 2006 23:14 utc | 16

r’giap – you might be interested in reading these two stories, re Chavez’ visit to Vietnam and meeting with Giap. Something may appear in French media as well.
This one has a picture of Chavez and Giap.
Chavez Visits Ho Chi Minh Mausoleum, Hails Castro
This story has more about the meeting of the two:
ROUNDUP: Chavez Blasts US In Vietnam Ahead Of Key Trade Vote
04:10 PM, August 1st 2006
by Playfuls Team
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez unleashed a two- hour tirade against the US on Tuesday in Vietnam, calling the US “sub-animal” imperialists and offering his country’s assistance in developing Vietnam’s oil industry to fight what he called a Washington hegemony.

Posted by: Owl | Aug 1 2006 23:20 utc | 17

owl
thank you
the old man stil looks well & i imagine
still sage enough to offer comrade chavez
counsel on this or that

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 1 2006 23:32 utc | 18

who are the fucking savages here
who are the barbarians in this case
who is it who is without culture & civilisation
“But always — do not forget this, Winston — always there will be the intoxication of power, constantly increasing and constantly growing subtler. Always, at every moment, there will be the thrill of victory, the sensation of trampling on an enemy who is helpless. If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face — for ever.”
George Orwell
1984

Posted by: billmon | Aug 1 2006 23:38 utc | 19

guardian front page today massive invasion – syria cannot be very far away

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 2 2006 0:04 utc | 20

try again

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 2 2006 0:07 utc | 21

Vietnamese officials on Monday abruptly cancelled Chavez’s planned visits to two sensitive monuments – a military museum memorializing communist Vietnamese troops’ battles against US soldiers and a village housing victims of Agent Orange, a toxic defoliant US warplanes sprayed during the Vietnam War.

Posted by: Malooga | Aug 2 2006 0:24 utc | 22

Chavez met later Tuesday with Vietnamese national hero Vo Nguyen Giap, who masterminded the 1954 Dien Bien Phu defeat of colonist French forces, and paved the way to Vietnamese independence. The country was split into communist north and US-backed south until the 1975 communist victory that ended the Vietnam War.
The two exchanged gifts – Chavez offered a gem-encrusted replica of a sword owned by Latin American liberation hero Simon Bolivar, while Giap gave signed copies of his books on military strategy.
The reclusive Giap, 94, praised Chavez as a member of a new generation of socialist figures.
“You together with President Fidel Castro have raised the flag of nationalism and socialism,” Giap said.
from owls link

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 2 2006 0:32 utc | 23

The surprising thing about Fidel is how disarmingly meek and humble he can be, but Chavez, man, that guy is a fucking Lion! He took the baton Fidel passed to him and set off running — and he is gradually running further to the left, too.

Posted by: Malooga | Aug 2 2006 0:38 utc | 24

but they both possess something bush wishes he had – a sense of humour
i’m hearing on cable tv in france al arabiya, al jazeera – that in baabeck the hospital in baaabeck – the hezbollah have either trapped israeli commando’s or repulsed an attack there

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 2 2006 1:22 utc | 25

the level of censorship & control of the media by the idf is exraordinary
except in some of the reports from itv – the scale of the horror – is reduced – even in camera angles etc
& i’m finding information there much more quickly than on cnnnbbcsky – sometimes a full day later

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 2 2006 1:28 utc | 26

al jazeera report on baabeck

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 2 2006 1:55 utc | 27

Malooga: I have little idea about Chavez, but anyone who can sit in a field at a table, with cows wandering around, and tell the appreciative audience that Bush is a drunk, cowardly, burro has my respect. Not since Kruschev took his shoe off or the young Fidel wandered around Harlem has there been such a PR genius.

Posted by: citizen k | Aug 2 2006 1:57 utc | 28

chavez, cows & bush’s cowardice

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 2 2006 2:04 utc | 29

another pic of giap w/ chavez & a couple of generals (4th down, left column)

Posted by: b real | Aug 2 2006 2:30 utc | 30

Thanks for that link, r’giap. In case people didn’t know, (and US reporters mostly don’t know this) “Mr. Danger” is a sleazy character in a Venezuelan classic that school children study –
Mr. Danger is a long-standing figure in Venezuelan life, a character in a 1929 work, many times republished, by the novelist Rómulo Gallegos, who was also Venezuela’s first freely-elected president, brought down in a U.S.-backed 1948 military coup, ten months after he took office.
I like a lot of things about Chavez. One is that he asks people what books they think he should read. He got a signed autobiography from Kalashnikov in his visit to Russia, and signed books on military strategy from Giap.

Posted by: Owl | Aug 2 2006 2:42 utc | 31

He is more than a PR genius.
He is brilliant, charismatic, multi-talented, indefatigable, brave, flexible, visionary, ruthless when need be, forgiving of his adversaries, and generous in spirit, and connected to his people. His heart is anchored to the spirit of his beloved Bolivar.
I hope y’all have seen “The Revolution Will Not Be Televised.” The filming of the coup in progress, and the entire government sitting in the basemaent waiting to have their heads blown off, or be taken away and executed, is the single best piece of reality filmmaking EVER.
Chavez is the most important force for good in this world for the last ten years, and Gaia willing, for many more to come.

Posted by: Malooga | Aug 2 2006 2:49 utc | 32

I saw “The Revolution will not be Televised” and second Malooga’s recommendation. Wonderful movie.
Chavez is a genius in many different ways. I was highly amused to read, about 6 months ago, some US official say that the US officials now realized that they had badly underestimated Chavez’ capability.
I guess the US officials were getting all their information from Chavez’ upper class opposition, who describe Chavez as an ignorant bumpkin, an uncouth person, stupid, Castro’s homosexual lover, dirty, a monkey, etc. Definitely somebody who cheated his way into the Presidency, because the upper class critics certainly didn’t vote for him, and neither did anybody they know.
Chavez isn’t particularly worried about the US now – he says he is a good chess player.

Posted by: Owl | Aug 2 2006 3:03 utc | 33

i will see if that film is available here
malooga i am moved by your simple but telling homage
the spirit of both bolivar & marti – two just men – live
(the scenes replayed again & again of the small group of hoods in miami waiting for fidels last breath is a sight so patently orgiastic & in the context of andersoncoopers& colleagues hardons about israeli operation in baaka (which arab t v here completely & absolutely contradict)- it is enough to send me to bed)

Posted by: r’giap | Aug 2 2006 3:16 utc | 34

Thanks, giap et al for your response(s).
Bubb Rubb wrote
I just have to ask myself, how is it in this conflict that Israel is managing to try to portray everything like it is someone elses fault?
Since when have they ever done anything else? As ‘b’ said this technique has been repeated and repeated through every incident you can name … there must be some psychological term for a person who continually picks a fight just so they can self-righteously smash the other person with some great big hammer they carry around in their back pocket all the time.

Posted by: 2nd anonymous poster | Aug 2 2006 3:22 utc | 35

thanks, r’giap,
perhaps someday we too will get to meet…
the point I make about reality filmmaking is crucial, because it is real, far better than anything Malraux (the ayn rand of the left, except he has not weathered as well) could write, real people, real hopes and dreams and lives — and so different than the “reality” television of emptiness we are peddled.

Posted by: Malooga | Aug 2 2006 3:25 utc | 36

b real, I followed your link and I know with all the mass murder in the ME and elsewhere going on it should be a matter of no more than tertiary importance but the pic of the Chinese guys beating the dog to death is just haunting me.
thanks for that.

Posted by: ran | Aug 2 2006 4:21 utc | 37

From b real’s link to cryptome, the photo is of (bear) Chavez in the background while his two (big) generals shake hands with (tiny) Giap, all military men in uniform. Chavez of course is no longer a paratrooper or a prisoner, he is the overwhelmingly elected leader of Venezuela.
“Chavez, background center, introduces his generals to Vietnamese legendary general Vo Nguyen Giap, right, during Chavez’s visit to Giap’s home in Hanoi.
(AP Photo/Hoang Dinh Nam, Pool)”
The symbolism isn’t lost on me.

Posted by: jonku | Aug 2 2006 18:07 utc | 38

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