“Very, very close” + WB: Olmert Goes For It

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August 11, 2006

Bernhard:

(original size)

Being "very, very close" to a cease-fire" while launching a new all out attack is beyond my capacity to explain.

But then, what do I know. I am not even a neocon.

—

Billmon:

I dunno, maybe it’s another bluff designed to put more pressure on the Lebanese Pierre Laval (as if somehow he could coax a bigger fig leaf
out of Sheikh Nasballah.) But hurrying up the offensive to grab a
little more yardage before the UN blows the final whistle is a
time-honored tradition for the Israelis.

Olmert Goes For It

Posted by b on August 11, 2006 at 16:53 UTC | Permalink

Comments

There is also something very confusing going on in the Israeli cabinet:
Olmert bars Livni from attending UN Security Council sessions

The cabinet began Thursday its marketing plan to the Security Council to secure the end of the war and play up Israel’s successes. Then the obligatory crisis erupted: Prime Minister Ehud Olmert barred Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni from attending the United Nations Security Council sessions.
Livni has been planning the trip for several days. She planned to address the council,speak to colleagues and meet the Jewish community. But Olmert said “No.” His reasons were that Livni asked for his approval too late, that there was no point going after the resolution was drafted, and that Foreign Ministry professionals objected. But that was just the cover. Olmert brought his lingering animosity to Livni out into the open.
A short time after the fighting erupted, Olmert pushed Livni out of his close circle.

The explanation that follows does not make any sense either. Is anybody left in the cabinet who hase some good relation with Olmert?

Posted by: b | Aug 11 2006 16:58 utc | 1

Also from Haaretz

A reserve armored division began operating before dawn Thursday in the eastern sector of southern Lebanon. One report indicated relatively little opposition to the IDF entry and soldiers were said to have taken up positions in a village adjacent to Marjayoun, above the Litani River.

The call up of this reserve division had not been announced. How many more reserves were activated?

Posted by: b | Aug 11 2006 17:11 utc | 2

Olmert is a hero if his plans are stopped by the UN.

Posted by: pb | Aug 11 2006 17:31 utc | 3

The bad news is that there’s no food in Tyre.
This is from the excellent Beirut Blog >Anecdotes from a Banana Republic<. (She had a very illuminating entry yesterday on bulimia).

Posted by: Guthman Bey | Aug 11 2006 17:32 utc | 4

Hurrying up the offensive to grab a little more territory before the final whistle is a time-honored tradition for the Israelis. What I don’t understand is why Olmert kept stalling earlier this week even as the last half of the 4th quarter (or whatever the soccer equivalent is) slipped away.
I’ve read reports that President Psychopath has been listening to his Chief Midwife lately instead of Crazy Dick and Don, and that she’s telling him to keep the Israelis on the leash until she can get her UN resolution. (Rice: What can I say? It’s in my job description.) But that could just be smoke.
The thing is, if the IDF launches a month-long offensive, and has to stop after, say, three or four days, it could end up spread out all over southern Lebanon — with vulnerable supply lines, units that aren’t in contact with each other, lots of gaps in the line for Hizbullah to infilrate through. The ideal position for a guerrilla counteract, in other words, if Hizbullah decides to ignore the ceasefire. Olmert is taking an awfully big risk, and an awfully stupid one, in my opinion.

Posted by: billmon | Aug 11 2006 18:03 utc | 5

My guess is Hezbollah will ignore the ceasefire, so long as it leaves a single Israeli in Lebanon.

Posted by: ran | Aug 11 2006 18:17 utc | 6

Interesting interview:
Do watch this – George Galloway rips into a Sky newsbimbo!From Idleworm

Posted by: Iron butterfly | Aug 11 2006 18:34 utc | 7

Here’s why:
Olmert’s popularity plunges in Israel – poll

Posted by: Ensley | Aug 11 2006 18:39 utc | 8

The messy Olmert government, Bushistan, — why it’s the (mostly) circumcised Adams family! That makes them unpredictable too. I still think the Israelis need to get to the Litani, at least in some area for PR purposes, and in the East they are now quite close. And then the predictable part should kick in: 120,000 people running out of food (Make that 120,000 minus those who are dead but unaccounted as yet).
No food: that means Nicholas Kristof can get involved!
My best guess is, it will be messy: half-observed cease-fire, half-baked “relief effort”, more bombings (but less than recently), truly wilting orange orchards, and maybe a half-wilting of the government in Beirut (since that’s a Hezb pressure card).

Posted by: Guthman Bey | Aug 11 2006 18:45 utc | 9

@Ensley:
Don’t worry, the Israeli peace movement still supports ~~Omerta,~~ I mean Olmert, 100% in this “just war.” It’s the fascist ex-Russians, led by Sharansky, who have peeled away because he hasn’t “shown enough will,” i.e. massacred enough Lebanese.
I can’t feel too much sympathy for a nation of 95% war criminal apologists, but apparently some can around here.

Posted by: Malooga | Aug 11 2006 19:28 utc | 10

The Olmert order to the IDF is just a psychological ploy. The IDF more than any party desperately needs the cease-fire to recoup and replan. They are in reaction mode right now and do not have control of the initiative. And on top they have a new military commander for the northern front.
At this stage the UN resolution poses a serious dilemma for Sheikh Nasrallah. He has both the strategic and tactical initiative. Strategically he has won the PR war for the Arab street and new respect from real professional military folks around the world. From a tactical standpoint it would be better for him if the IDF keeps lurching from Plan A to Z. However, strategically he cannot be seen as blocking a cease-fire and prevention of humanitarian assistance to the battered Lebanese.
With the cease-fire, the IDF get to re-group for a better offensive. This aint over. The IDF cannot take this loss of face. Phase II of the resolution will not happen. The parties will not agree. It will be interesting if the French actually get there and be in the middle of the shooting gallery when it restarts.

Posted by: ab initio | Aug 11 2006 19:48 utc | 11

Posted by: ab initio | Aug 11 2006 19:51 utc | 12

The analogy is more like 4th and 65 in the final 2 minutes and Olmert is no Montana.
At this point, there is no such thing as a “win” for Israel. Better they should pack it up, fire the entire political/military chain of command and do a rethink about their place in the global scheme of things.
America’s patience with blood and bullshit has worn very, very thin.

Posted by: vachon | Aug 11 2006 19:55 utc | 13

I have no doubt that the Israeli aerial “Shock and Awe” campaign was planned together by Israeli and American Air Force “Baby Bomber LeMays”. No doubt it was to be followed by air campaigns against Syria and Iran. The only question remaining, has the lack of effectiveness and the pending Israeli strategic defeat penetrated the thick skulls of the civilian leadership of the USA?

Posted by: Jim S | Aug 11 2006 20:11 utc | 14

I wish you right about that final sentence vachon.
But with 50% of the population convinced Saddam had WMDs, I’d say there’s half the population with an infinite capacity for being bullshited.
And there’s a large portion of mouthbreathers here who wonder why we haven’t just vaporized all the ragheads yet.

Posted by: ran | Aug 11 2006 20:15 utc | 15

Frankly, neocon jabber sounded more eloquent in the original Russian. Quoting Nikita Khrushchev:
Любите ли вы они или не, история находится на нашей стороне. Мы вас похороним.

Posted by: Brian J. | Aug 11 2006 21:56 utc | 16

Triple zeroes on the clock?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060811/ap_on_re_mi_ea/lebanon_israel

Posted by: Brian J. | Aug 11 2006 22:05 utc | 17

Here’s the text of the UN ceasefire resolution draft. Remember, it is still only a draft:
Link

Posted by: Ensley | Aug 11 2006 23:54 utc | 18

A leader wise enough to stop digging when he’s in a hole is no small thing. Even though what has happened so far really, really sucks, if Israel stops its attack, Ohlmert should be praised.

Posted by: a-train | Aug 12 2006 3:42 utc | 19

A leader wise enough to stop digging when he’s in a hole is no small thing. Even though what has happened so far really, really sucks, if Israel stops its attack, Ohlmert should be praised.

Posted by: a-train | Aug 12 2006 3:43 utc | 20

A leader wise enough to stop digging when he’s in a hole is no small thing. Even though what has happened so far really, really sucks, if Israel stops its attack, Ohlmert should be praised.

Posted by: a-train | Aug 12 2006 3:43 utc | 21

The only *praise* that mass murderer should receive is a warm blanket in his cell.

Posted by: Brian J. | Aug 12 2006 4:05 utc | 22

In all the discussion of the whys and wherefors of Israel’s enhanced push northward, I see no mention of something that was pointed out in an August 5 article at Asia Times Online, in an article by Kaveh Afrasiabi, entitled “It’s about annexation, stupid!”, the relevant excerpt from which is:
…Now the Israeli army is sweeping the area south of the Litani River as a temporary occupation.
“We have no intention of extending our operation more than 70 kilometers north of our borders with Lebanon,” stated Lieutenant-Colonel Hemi Lini on the Lebanese border on July 17, one week after the war’s outbreak.
This would put Israel, assuming for a moment that the Israel Defense Forces’ operations prove ultimately successful, in control of the Litani River, thus fulfilling Israel’s founding fathers’ dream, stretching back to Chaim Weizmann, head of the World Zionist Organization, who in 1919 declared the river “essential to the future of the Jewish national home”.
Consequently, contrary to the pro-Israel pundits’ reassurances that this war is not about occupation, all the tangible signs indicate the exact opposite, ie, the distinct possibility of a “war of acreage” whereby Israel would expand its territory, acquire a new strategic depth, and simultaneously address its chronic water shortage by exploiting the Litani.
Access to the Litani would translate into an annual increase of water supply by 800 million cubic meters….

Posted by: woodswitch | Aug 13 2006 1:33 utc | 23

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